201568_艾瑞咨询_艾瑞投资月报2015年6月（28页）.pdf

艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 艾瑞资产研究中心 6 A PSL PPP PMI 5 6 IPO 6 5 14 A IPO 5 A 15.36%艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 Wind 2-50%0%50%100%150%200%14/6/4 14/8/4 14/10/4 14/12/4 15/2/4 15/4/4 300 500 STOXX 50 225 一、月度投资视点 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 目 录 Contents 2.1 A 2.2 3.1 3.2-二、互联网投资策略 三、艾瑞资管产品概览 一、月度投资视点 4 1.1 PMI 50.2%0.1 PMI 5 PMI 49.2 48.9 2015 5 100 0.45%3.73%0.73 48 52 Wind PMI Wind 5 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 35.040.045.050.055.060.065.0Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12 Jan-14 PMI PMI 5 PMI-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15%1-4 17341.3 1.3%1-3 1.4 4 2.6%3 0.4%Wind 4 Wind 6 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月-10010203012/3/1 12/9/1 13/3/1 13/9/1 14/3/1 14/9/1 15/3/1%2025 PPP 1.2 5 6 IPO 6 5 4 52.6 6 Wind Wind 7 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 123456714/6/3 14/8/3 14/10/3 14/12/3 15/2/3 15/4/3 7 6.106.156.206.256.306.35-900-700-500-300-100100300500Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 1.3 GDP 0.7%0.2%4 51.7 6.8%0.3%14 5 PMI 53.4 4 0.1%1996 5 PMI 4 CPI 0.4%14 World Bank,wind 8 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 0501001500200400600800Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 43485358Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 PMI 1.4 A IPO A A 1%7 2%6 IPO 6 5 2015 182 2014 3 A 6 9 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 1.5 A IPO PMI IPO A 27 300 17.3 138 15-20 IPO 1.15 4 750 5 1454 5 4000 A A A A IPO 10 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 500 5 4000 A A 4 A 200 5 29 A 442.8 A 5 A 442.8 Wind 5 4000 Wind 11 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月-2000-1000010002000300040005000Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.005/6/3 07/6/3 09/6/3 11/6/3 13/6/3A 2015 A 5 29 20720 A A A 2014 A 27 78.77 138 A A 27 Wind A Wind 2015.5.29 12 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 200025003000350040004500500055002000700012000170002200014/1/2 14/4/2 14/7/2 14/10/2 15/1/2 15/4/2 300 A 138.42 78.77 38.08 27.05 19.95 17.34 020406080100120140 A A 300 A TTM 15-20A 27 A A A A 2007 10 0.45 0.49 A 0.49 2007 0.45 Wind 2015.5.29 A Wind 13 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 19.4 19.5 17.3 15.8 12.1 17.3 27.0 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.00.01.02.03.04.0S&P 500 EUROSTOXX 50MSCI JapanQuality MixDow JonesIndustrialAverage 300 A PBPE Right A 0.00.51.01.52.02.5May-05 Nov-06 May-08 Nov-09 May-11 Nov-12 May-14A/A/A A A A IPO A A IPO 80%587 1.15 IPO A A A 5 A 1454 4 5 1454 4 Wind A IPO Wind 14 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 1454.1 0.0500.01000.01500.02000.0May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.0Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 A 1.6 1%7 2%6 IPO 1.7 2015 182 2014 3 2.79 2014 31%17.39%300 14.65%Wind 6 15 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 2.0%8.4%14.7%17.0%17.4%19.3%21.4%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%300 2015 Q1 15015516016514/6/3 14/8/3 14/10/3 14/12/3 15/2/3 15/4/3 1.8 15-20 A 27 12 AH 128.34 A Wind 2015.5.29 Wind 16 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 51015202501/1/1 03/1/1 05/1/1 07/1/1 09/1/1 11/1/1 13/1/1 15/1/1 889810811812813814814/4/30 14/7/31 14/10/31 15/1/31 15/4/30 AH 1.9 Wind 17 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%15/1/1 15/1/22 15/2/12 15/3/5 15/3/26 15/4/16 15/5/7 15/5/28 LME IPE 二、互联网行业投资策略 2.1 A A A 179.16%15.36%300 36.99%1.91%5 A 5 28 6.5%4600 20.62%1.71%100 6.42%2.13%5 5 19 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 Q1 5 Wind 2015.05.31 Wind 2015.05.31-20%80%180%280%14/12/31 15/1/31 15/2/28 15/3/31 15/4/30 A 300 A 300-0.100.000.100.200.3014/12/31 15/1/31 15/2/28 15/3/31 15/4/30 100 100 5 A 2.2 2015Q1 OTA Q1 46%GMV 500%PC 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月/PEG EPS BABA 2310.8 33.01x 1.19x 45.14%68.72%1.24 BIDU 707.6 25.32x 0.76x 47.39%68.39%4.61 BITA 39.7 48.63x 2.11x 80.70%73.12%0.99 CMCM 46.9 132.94x 1.25x 128.16%82.42%0.11 CTRP 115.8 64.37x 1.26x 39.12%70.84%0.09 EDU 37.8 16.01x 1.28x 10.49%58.27%0.87 FENG 5.2 12.66x 0.63x 9.70%59.47%0.3 JD 468.4-5.54x 64.79%5.35%-0.14 JMEI 33.2 38.45x 0.86x 38.28%35.76%0.35 JOBS 18.7 16.9x 0.73x 11.77%72.77%1.02 LONG 7.8-1.30%58.7%-1.37 MOMO 30.6 59.02x-665.40%71.28%-0.15 NTES 188.1 18.26x 1.09x 38.24%70.98%4.26 360 QIHU 70.6 14.17x 0.4x 82.72%77.83%1.4 SFUN 32.9 52.61x 35.19x 5.62%76.68%0.41 SINA 24.4 62.88x 4.95x 9.95%61.72%0.18 SOHU 25.3-20.93%56.37%-0.77 TOUR 11.1-94.81%5.58%-1.28 VIPS 153.5 42.48x 0.71x 114.36%24.86%0.23 WB 33.0 85.39x-57.85%73.85%-0.06 58 WUBA 89.5-78.45%94.28%-0.18 YOKU 53.1-37.88%23.85%-0.58 YY 37.7 19.1x 0.58x 91.38%48.21%2.09 2015Q1)Wind 2015.05.31 BIDU 127.25 34.0%129.1 24.49 3.4%50%2015 Q1 158%80%156%80%167%BABA Q1 174.25 45%77.41 16%6001 40%50%2.89 77%UCWeb Q1 2015 Visualead 00700.hk Q1 223.99 22%220.94 133.13 44 82%WeChat 5.49(1)(2)(3)NBA NBA Tencent OS TOS OS TOS ROM TOS 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 CTRP Q1 23 46%1.26 2.24 1 60%53%7 2 64%6 3 53%200%7 100%MOMO Q1 2630 383%670 120 APP 6.0 CMCM Q1 6.7 113.0%3.7 584.1%55%PC 87%三、艾瑞资管产品概览 3.1+100 2000 CEO 24 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 25 0.23 0.61 0.41 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7 DAU/MAU 2014 10-2015 3 3 MUT-201410-201503 2014 10-2015 3 MAU 21%艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 3.2-HONEYCOMB ASSET MANAGEMENT CO.,LTD.KWEB ETF ETF S&P 500-HONEYCOMB ASSET MANAGEMENT CO.,LTD.HONEYCOMB ASSET MANAGEMENT CO.,LTD.26 艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月 0.800.901.001.101.201.3014/11/28 14/12/19 15/1/9 15/1/30 15/2/20 15/3/13 15/4/2 15/4/24 15/5/152014 12 1-2015 5 29 KWEB ETF S&P500“”27 Legal Statement This Report is prepared and provided by iResearch Investment Research Center of Shanghai iResearch Assets Management Co.,Ltd.(hereinafter,the“Company”).Any of reading and use of this Report shall be deemed as an unconditionally acceptance of any and all content contained herein.In no event shall the information or opinion contained or expressed herein constitute an investment opinion to anyone.In no event shall the Company be liable for any loss resulted from,or in connection with,the reliance on any content contained herein by any person.Information,opinions,and speculations contained herein are of judgment of the Company on the date of its issuance only.The Company may,from time to time,issue any report of which the information,opinions,and speculations are inconsistent with those contained herein.The Company makes no guarantee,expressed or implied,on the accuracy,reliance,or integrality of content contained herein.There are risks in market and investment shall be made with cautiousness.The information,materials,and conclusions contained herein are for reference by specific clients only and,in no event,shall constitute investment recommendations,without considering special investment objectives,financial standing,or needs of individual clients.This Report is of confidential and shall be communicated to specific clients only.Without written consent of the Company,no distribution hereof shall be made.No part hereof may be copied,duplicated,or reproduced in whatsoever form,or distributed to any other person,or otherwise used against the copyright of the Company.All trademarks,service marks,and marks contained herein are trademarks,service marks,and marks of the Company.艾瑞投资月报 2015年6 月