深度报告-20230110-国信证券-明泰铝业-601677.SH-低成本构筑竞争优势_产品加速升级_47页_1mb.pdf

|2023 1 10 601677.SH 010-S0980520040001 021-S0980522080003 12 15%2022 117 2022 50%50%2023 2003 1+4 1000/5%68 70 70%2022 11 3300mm 1+1 CVC 2022 25 2022/2023/2024 16.91/20.07/24.77 EPS 1.74/2.07/2.55 PE 9.6/8.1/6.5 20.7-24.8 23%-48%2003 65 2015 55 IPO 2022 70 2019 200 140 68 2019-2021 68 70 70 25 2024 25 2022 12.5 2018 12.5 2017 2 2019 2 2015 2021 10 12 1997 2011 1 1997-2010 1997 750 2003 1+4 2007 20082 2011-2013 2011 7 CTP 2012 1+4 3 2014-&2014 2016 12.5 2020 20 36 12 2021 12 30 70 2022 8 25 200 80%+45+2025 2019 15.35%19.58%9.81%1 8 CTP/PS 47 200 2021 115.7 6.46%200 GIL 68 12 70 1-8 1 99%1050 1060 1070 1100 1060 1070 1100 1235 1050 10602 3%-5%2A11 2A12 2A14 2014 2017 20243 1%-1.5%3003 3004 3005 3104 3105 3A21 3003 3004 30034 4.5%-6%5 3%-5%5A05 5086 5252 5A02 5005 5A06 5182 5454 5754 5A03 5083 5052 5052 5083 5754 50526 6060 6005A 6101 6005 6082 6063 6061 60617 7A09 7A04 7050 7005 70758 8006 8079 8021 8011 39.39%2022 220.2 13.19 29.15%-5.87%2022Q1-Q3 10 2022 2 2022 50%2022 300/2021 15%10 2021 20 2021 2022 2022 13.2 2022 2022 90%2011 15%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY YOY 89.15103.79114.67128.57192.31 13.6017.6718.6624.5739.950501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 15%21 36 42 44 51 64 76 86 98 115 117 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801001201402012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 77%19%96%2017 1221 2021 2531 19.99%1,221 1,294 1,530 1,660 2,531 2,655 2,298 2,818 2,094 3,075 05001000150020002500300035002017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 72.9%71.5%68.1%71.5%76.8%22.9%21.1%18.6%16.0%18.7%0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10000/20 20 1000-2000/21 2002 1+3 1+4 1+4 15/65/1+4 50%21 2002 3 15/0.2 PS 2005 10 25/0.4 PS 2007 30 45/0.67 +5 350/450/700/350/352344352389358418 416400477490621730896 8996748919779938907546957518408667720200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021/5-10 5%19%-9.5%3-5 10-25 5%32%-19%9.5%-3.8%10-20 5%4.8%-9.5%10 5%9.50%6-10 5%9.5%-16%/wind 1 2 3 1 500-600 1000/2021 11626.52 10.61%2022 50%70/wind 0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.000.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.009,000.0010,000.002016-01-04 2016-09-27 2017-06-28 2018-03-22 2018-12-14 2019-09-10 2020-06-11 2021-03-10 2021-12-03():A0013,277 13,228 11,829 13,006 11,627 14,717 14,365 14,931 13,720 17,078 8000100001200014000160001800020000220002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-wind 90%2%3%4%1%+70%2017-68 12 70 70%100 1 20 2018 2019 11 1.70 10 2 2019 2020-20 3 2020 2021 5 6 2021 6 2.46 12 4 36 2020 12 2021 3.71 26.25 3 6 5 70 2021 7 2022 6 36 2023 44.73 70 (5%)(CO2)()1 3-4 14 20 2019 715 500 70%215 30%SMM 80%15%5%,2018 4 2021 8 2012705101520252010 2015 2018 2019 60%24.8%88%2020-2021 137.8 220.3 2011 33%2021 61%33 15 740 CIRCAL 75%2020 1.6 2021 5 2030 30%EcoDura 50%2020 Warrick 38.3%2019 2.8 2022 50%49%15%20%97%8%68%100%88%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%12.810.4024681012141618 2019 t-CO2 80%15%5%3003 3004 3004 3104 5083 5182 6061 5.65 8.55 1400 3500 12000 2022 10 SGS ISO14040:2006-ISO14044:2006-ISO14067:2018-2022 11 80%2014 2019 2018 2020 3 6 3+6 01002003004005006002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/158 2/3/158 840 0.5/0.65/126 Wind 14000150001600017000180001900020000210002200023000240002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-/A 1200013000140001500016000170001800019000200002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-/01000200030004000500060002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-/634788963936113905001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 550652106610921569-50005001,0001,5002,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 3300mm 1+1 C80 2017 12.5 CVC 2019 1+4 2022 25 1 2014 6 2015 6 6.46IPO+1+1 2 2 2015 10 2017 8 2019 2023-2024 8.28 3 12.5 2017 2 2018 6 2023-2024 13.59 1+4 CVC 4 2019 5 70 28 1+1 1+4 2800mm 5 50 2020 10 2021 5 30 45 3C 6 70 2021 7 1+4 2022 6 2023 44.73+2400mm 1+1 1+4 7 25-2024 40.35 pack 2014 7 6.46 5.09 6 2 7 C80 1+4 20 5 10 2.5 2.5 2015 2016 3300mm+2800mm 3 1 2 3 20 1.3 1.1 2.6 4 2 1 3 2.5 2 0.5 20/70 2021 70 44.73 70 2400mm 1+1 1+4 2 1+4 2022 22 11.5 5 70 100000 100000 50000 100000 50000 2000005052 500005052 50000 700000 231749 23792 30203 447314 1472984 70515%18.30%7.3 25 2022 8 25 40.35 20 pack 2 6.1 17.80%7.2|2023 1 10 60%2019 200 2000/800 850/60%70%2019 CVC-6 45 62%2000mm 68 82%52 77%1850mm 53 30 1/3 2020 140kg 2017 2025 250kg 2030 350kg 2017 3820 2021 4470 3.19%50%2017-2021 5.32%4.51%10301123 1136 11851335365390 4004154551950198020082138220244044143043544005001000150020002500300035004000450050002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 27%24%12%15%4%14%45%6%22%5%Wood Mackenzie 60%2019 200 2000/800 850/60%70%2019 CVC-6 45 62%2000mm 68 82%52 77%1850mm 53 30 30%2021 455 9.3 2021 290.1 133.5 8.3%30%6.1 6.8 7.3 7.7 9.3 0%5%10%15%20%25%0123456789102017 2018 2019 2020 2021%116.3 128.6 129.5 123.3 133.5-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%1051101151201251301352017 2018 2019 2020 2021%254.8 268.3 275.0 283.0 290.1 365 390 400 415 455 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0501001502002503003504004505002017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2.7g/cm3 34%30%237W/m.K 398W/m.K 411W/m.K 73W/m.K 1/3 2020 2.0 2020 140kg 2017 2025 250kg 2030 350kg kg CO2 kg 70 293 3795 4088-113 3975 30 1324 1667 2991-149 2842 vs-40 1031-2128-1097-36-1133 46 647 2531 3178-412 2766 vs-24 354-1264-910-299-1209AHHS 56 234 3063 3297-90 3207AHHS vs-14-59-732-791 23-768 2021 25 30 30 8 20 20 20 2 2 1 10 5 5 5 6.1 80 80 30 15 15 19.8 20 20 19.9 2.1 4.5 10 15.6 20 20 7.2 7.2 14.2 13 13 12 10 10 20.8 5 5 5.2 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%01002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 80%40%70%11.88%13.28%14.22%14.42%10.00%11.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%2017 2018 2019 2020CR6CR60102030405060708090100 107.91%97.87%96.42%93.14%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%110.00%120.00%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 /9.2 14.6 14.7 1 6.8%1.7 11.6%/2030 2021 59%100%100%95%2021 19.5 3 Nespresso 80%2021 Nespresso t-CO2/t）+kg+t-CO2）12 150 1.8 0.6 150 0.09 1.8 450 0.81 0246810121416180%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%|2023 1 10 2022 9 37%A 2021 81 18%-(/-/2021 6 113 90 19,8 13 14-15 2017 20 35 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(5.0)0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -01020304050607080901002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 03060901201502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%0510152025302015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0.03.06.09.012.015.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-1135791113152015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2022 9 37%EBITDA/0.020.040.060.080.0100.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3-90-60-300302015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021|2023 1 10 2023 2023 130 2022 13 11.1%2024 150 2023 20 15.4%2023 2022 2022 2021 300/2023 2021 2022/2023/2024 16.91/20.07/24.77 EPS 1.74/2.07/2.55 20.7-24.8 23%-47.5%15%10 2021 20 3 132 2022 70 200 2023 CTP PS 35%19%2023 2023 130 2022 13 11.1%2024 150 2023 20 15.4%284036061,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12/2020 2021 2022/15%21 36 42 44 51 64 76 86 98 115 117 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801001201402012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 1221/2021 2531/2021 2017 2022 50%1000/5500/2023 90 69%2022 2022 2021 300/2023 2021 2023 2021 3420/4200/2024 2023 200/3620/4400/12211294153016602531265522982818209430751000150020002500300035002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-1607234624791395216432003432189835442791144866790514011277115217651922143221081611762050010001500200025003000350040002020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3/130 70 2022 200 2022 116.6 2023 2024 130 150 2022Q1 2023 2021-2024 2531/2231/2531/2731/2021-2024 3075/2775/3075/3275/2021-2024 1.5/2.0/2.0/2.0 2021-2024 8566/2022/2023/2024 263/295/341 16.9/20.1/24.8 1.74/2.07/2.55 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 74.55 82.73 95.45 95.69 105.30 120.00 11.05 14.72 19.09 21.00 24.70 30.00 0.86 1.50 2.08 2.08 2.08/15,381 15,541 20,147 20,861 21,161 21,361/16,886 16,689 20,926 21,639 21,939 22,139/28,573 14,754 30,931 30,931 30,931/1530 1660 2531 2231 2531 2731/2818 2094 3075 2775 3075 3275/11388 8566 8566 8566 8566 11,467 12,857 19,231 19,961 22,283 25,633 1,866 2,457 3,995 4,545 5,419 6,642 179 246 221 643 643 643 503 639 997 997 997 997 1141 1373 2416 2135 2665 3277 311 308 587 583 760 982 56 98 128 178 178 178 104 72-30-30-30-30 3 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 24,613 26,316 29,511 34,084 21,469 23,407 25,896 29,634 74 64 71 82 236 263 292 335 953 1096 1121 1295 81(228)71 82 2173 2144 2473 3050 2142 2140 2473 3050 1852 1691 2007 2475 EPS2.71 1.74 2.07 2.55ROE17.4%13.8%14.3%15.1%Wind,1-+2022 2023 2024 2 10%2 10%2-2023-10%2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 10%()16,333 24,613 26,316 32,281 37,312(+/-%)15.4%50.7%6.9%22.7%15.6%()1070 1852 1691 2158 2674(+/-%)16.7%73.1%-8.7%27.6%23.9%EPS1.62 2.71 1.74 2.23 2.76()16,333 24,613 26,316 29,511 34,085(+/-%)15.4%50.7%6.9%12.1%15.5%()1070 1852 1691 2007 2476(+/-%)16.7%73.1%-8.7%18.7%23.4%EPS()1.62 2.71 1.74 2.07 2.55 10%()16,333 24,613 26,316 26,741 30,857(+/-%)15.4%50.7%6.9%1.6%15.4%()1070 1852 1691 1856 2277(+/-%)16.7%73.1%-8.7%9.7%22.7%EPS1.62 2.71 1.74 1.91 2.35 16,333 24,613 26,316 26,741 30,857-/3802 4002 4202 4402 4602/2823 1,447 1,485 1,523 1,561 1,598 3023 1,608 1,646 1,684 1,722 1,760 3423 1,931 1,969 2,007 2,044 2,082 3623 2,092 2,130 2,168 2,206 2,244 3823 2,254 2,291 2,329 2,367 2,405 -18.3-25.6 beta 5 beta 1.02x 6.50%WACC 8.4%FCFF 18.3-25.6 WACC 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 15.4%50.7%6.9%12.1%15.5%15.0%5.0%3.0%/88.2%87.2%88.9%87.7%86.9%86.9%86.9%86.9%/1.1%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.6%0.6%/3.2%3.9%4.2%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%/0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%/0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%16.1%11.7%18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%6.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%Beta1.02T18.85%1.71%Ka8.34%6.50%Beta1.23 16.68Ke9.70%970 E/(D+E)79.77%(E)16176 D/(D+E)20.23%(D)4102 WACC8.40%Kd4.00%10 1%WACC 7.4%7.9%8.40%8.9%9.4%2.5%34.22 29.90 26.33 23.33 20.792.0%31.30 27.57 24.44 21.79 19.511.5%28.87 25.61 22.83 20.45 18.391.0%26.82 23.93 21.44 19.28 17.400.5%25.07 22.47 20.22 18.25 16.520.0%23.55 21.20 19.15 17.34 15.74-0.5%22.23 20.09 18.20 16.53 15.04-A 2021 81 18%-(/-/2021 6 113 90 19,8 13 14-15 2017 20 35 2023 PE 12.5 PE 8.1 2023 PE 10-12 20.7-24.8 20.7-24.8 23%-48%1 6 EPS PE PB（2022Q3）2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E603876.SH 46.53 228.2 0.88 2.99 3.98 52.9 15.6 11.7 3.9601702.SH 15.60 155.8 0.5 0.76 0.94 31.2 20.5 16.6 4.3600219.SH 3.33 389.9 0.29 0.32 0.36 11.5 10.4 9.3 0.9 31.9 15.5 12.5 3.0601677.SH 16.68 161.8 2.71 1.74 2.07 6.1 9.6 8.1 1.4 Wind Wind 20.7-24.8 WACC TV 1 10 2 WACC WACC 1.7%6.5%WACC 3 10 TV 1%10 4 2023 PE 2023 10-12 PE 2023 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2073 2909 3500 4000 4500 16333 24613 26316 29511 34084 832 2794 3605 4851 6537 14412 21469 23407 25896 29634 2362 3724 4431 5250 6418 78 111 110 123 142 1540 1201 2632 3246 4090 64 74 64 71 82 8339 12771 16311 19491 23688 184 236 263 292 335 3400 4771 4734 4565 4371 518 953 1096 1121 1295 363 442 424 407 389 152 81(228)71 82 671 944 944 944 944 81 51 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 8(21)0 0 12773 18929 22414 25406 29392 240 425 538 537 537 0 377 3052 3506 4235 1304 2173 2144 2473 3050 1641 3683 2532 2800 3209(3)(31)(4)0 0 707 2414 2634 2913 3339 1301 2142 2140 2473 3050 2348 6474 8217 9219 10783 210 251 403 466 575 1216 1050 1050 1050 1050 22 38 45 0 0 192 336 481 626 770 1070 1852 1691 2007 2475 1408 1386 1531 1676 1820 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 3756 7860 9748 10894 12603 1070 1852 1691 2007 2475 360 394 436 436 436(1)(33)3(0)(1)8658 10674 12230 14076 16354 389 433 431 487 512 12773 18929 22414 25406 29392(57)(8)21 0 0 152 81(228)71 82 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E(348)602(3732)(1988)(2719)1.62 2.71 1.74 2.07 2.55 21 69 38 0 1 0.11 0.22 0.14 0.17 0.20 1074 2914(1548)506 269 13.09 15.64 12.61 14.51 16.86 0(1768)(400)(300)(300)ROIC 9.19%15.74%11%10%11%(713)(611)0 0 0 ROE12.36%17.35%14%14%15%(713)(2379)(400)(300)(300)12%13%11%12%13%(11)0 0 0 0 EBIT Margin7%7%5%7%8%0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA Margin9%9%7%8%9%(72)(148)(135)(160)(198)15%51%7%12%15%(535)597 2674 454 729 17%73%-9%19%23%(689)301 2539 294 531 32%44%45%45%44%(328)836 591 500 500 0.6%1.3%1.2%1.4%1.7%2401 2073 2909 3500 4000 P/E10.3 6.1 9.6 8.1 6.5 2073 2909 3500 4000 4500 P/B1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0 829(2570)(157)(385)EV/EBITDA10.1 8.7 14.3 10.9 9.3 0 1426 77 223 258 Wind 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032