深度报告-20230117-国盛证券-金螳螂-002081.SZ-供需优化拐点显_龙头迈步从头越_22页_1mb.pdf

|2023 01 17 002081.SZ 2021-2022 1 2 3 8-10 2010 EPC 2018 54%2022 81%12%2022 82.4 57.9 24.5 16.7 9.0 12.2 2022Q3 52 14%14 66%-31%2022 Q1/Q2/Q3+3%/-32%/+1%+5%/-39%/+0.3%Q3 Q2 PB PB 2019 8 21 285 104%22-24 12/15/17 125%/25%/12%EPS 0.46/0.58/0.65 PE 11.6/9.3/8.3 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 31,243 25,374 22,165 22,733 24,879 yoy%1.3-18.8-12.6 2.6 9.4 2,374-4,950 1,226 1,532 1,714 yoy%1.0-308.5 124.8 24.9 11.9 EPS/0.89-1.86 0.46 0.58 0.65%13.7-42.4 9.5 10.9 11.2 P/E 6.0-2.9 11.6 9.3 8.3 P/B 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Wind 2023 1 16 1 16()5.31()14,099.77()2,655.32(%)99.27 30()13.91 S0680518030004 S0680518010003 S0680519070003-34%-27%-21%-14%-7%0%7%2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 300 2023 01 17 P.2 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 40629 33457 32678 36305 37965 31243 25374 22165 22733 24879 6373 7490 7598 8097 7642 26058 21279 18684 19092 20834 22352 12902 11932 14048 15747 108 88 75 76 85 239 251 177 262 218 376 330 310 318 348 185 270 127 281 166 605 520 488 523 572 54 1652 1462 1720 1753 956 841 731 773 846 11427 10892 11382 11898 12439 131 81 49 78 138 4374 4728 4550 4474 4425 66-1680-443-136-124 0 0-5-10-16 55 24 0 0 0 892 881 725 703 729-1-55-29-36-30 90 82 71 54 38 38 34 51 39 41 3392 3766 3758 3727 3674 0-1 0 0 0 45003 38185 37228 40779 42390 2714-5456 1407 1740 1941 27017 25010 23199 25977 26588 0 2 2 2 2 714 882 882 882 882 4 5 4 5 4 21918 18638 16972 19414 20293 2710-5459 1406 1737 1938 4384 5490 5345 5680 5412 370-584 193 235 250 841 1678 1319 991 671 2341-4875 1212 1502 1688 837 1524 1165 837 517-33 75-14-30-26 4 154 154 154 154 2374-4950 1226 1532 1714 27858 26688 24518 26968 27258 EBITDA 2747-5443 1370 1683 1876 137 389 375 345 319 EPS/0.89-1.86 0.46 0.58 0.65 2683 2671 2671 2671 2671 369 187 187 187 187 14086 8611 9609 10874 12326 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 17009 11108 12335 13466 14813 45003 38185 37228 40779 42390%1.3-18.8-12.6 2.6 9.4%0.7-301.0 125.8 23.6 11.6%1.0-308.5 124.8 24.9 11.9%16.6 16.1 15.7 16.0 16.3%7.6-19.5 5.5 6.7 6.9 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%13.7-42.4 9.5 10.9 11.2 1777 814 233 1322 410 ROIC%12.1-35.9 7.4 8.8 9.3 2341-4875 1212 1502 1688 130 87 93 94 98%61.9 69.9 65.9 66.1 64.3 131 81 49 78 138%-27.8-42.0-40.3-43.1-38.4-38-34-51-39-41 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4-1138-1462-1099-350-1504 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 352 7017 29 36 30-574 1256 107-16-39 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 157 65-173-70-43 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7-522 1188 5 5 5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0-939 2508-61-80-77-797-911-233-807-826 0.89-1.86 0.46 0.58 0.65-161 168 0 0 0 0.67 0.31 0.09 0.50 0.15-2 687-359-328-321 6.41 4.18 4.65 5.07 5.58 7-12 0 0 0 27-182 0 0 0 P/E 6.0-2.9 11.6 9.3 8.3-668-1572 125-479-506 P/B 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 303 1109 107 500-455 EV/EBITDA 2.7-1.6 6.3 4.6 4.2 Wind 2023 1 16 2023 01 17 P.3 1.EPC.5 2.5 2.1.5 2.2.7 3.10 3.1.EPC.10 3.2.12 4.13 4.1.13 4.2.15 5.16 5.1.16 5.2.PB.17 5.2.1.PB.17 5.2.2.285 104%.19 5.3.20 6.21 1 2022 9.5 2.6 3 2020.6 4.6 5.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.10 11.11 12.11 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.13 17.14 18.14 19/.14 20.14 21.14 22.15 23.15 24.16 2023 01 17 P.4 25.17 26 PB.18 27.20 2023 01 17 P.5 1.EPC EPC 1993 14000 6000 HBA EPC EPC EPC 2022 0.69%()()48.5%49.19%3.06%56.06%1 2022 9(%)1()24.58 2()23.92 3 3.06 4 0.79 5 0.69 6 0.62 7 0.62 8 0.61 9 0.59 10 0.58 56.06 Wind 2.2.1.2020 2021 2020-2022 133/113/81 2019 2000 2021-2022 2020 14 8 2023 01 17 P.6*ST 5 2 3 2020 2020Q1 22.00%2020Q4 5.01%;2022Q1 5.99%2020Q4 29.99%2021Q1 4.88%2021Q3 2.22%2022Q1 4.99%2021Q4 9.39%2022Q1 7.04%2020Q3 29.99%2022Q3 2.21%2020Q1 5.10%;2020Q1 5.30%2020Q3*ST 29.99%4 AR 9.91%IDC 100%50 1 R35 5 300MW 46133113810204060801001201402019 2020 2021 2022 2023 01 17 P.7 2.2.2023 2023 2022 11%2023 8%5 Wind 2023 9 2022 2019-2020 2 22 3 2022-2023 2022 11 19%2022 2019 2023 2023 2020 2023-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-01 2023 01 17 P.8 6 Wind 7 Wind Wind 2022 12 2023 1 10.311.616.419.117.720.118.015.416.717.920.922.722.419.905101520252008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-60-40-200204060801002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)%2023 01 17 P.9 8 Wind 8-10 2010 9 0200400600800100012002022-11-202022-11-222022-11-242022-11-262022-11-282022-11-302022-12-022022-12-042022-12-062022-12-082022-12-102022-12-122022-12-142022-12-162022-12-182022-12-202022-12-222022-12-242022-12-262022-12-282022-12-302023-01-012023-01-03 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0100002000030000400005000060000700002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 01 17 P.10 3.3.1.EPC 1 2019 10 EPC 6000 HBA Internationnal BIM 2023 01 17 P.11 11 Wind EPC 12 Wind 15.056.714.293.772.090.69 0.60 0.59 0.46 0.44 0.33 0.230.07 0.070246810121416 2021 0.58%0.81%0.99%1.21%1.25%1.07%1.04%1.03%1.15%1.31%1.17%0.87%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 01 17 P.12 13 Wind 3.2.81%2017 2018 54%2022Q1-3 81%27 pct 2020 2022Q1-3 12%14 15 23.2%23.4%22.3%21.3%21.0%20.8%21.8%24.7%26.3%21.7%24.1%15%17%19%21%23%25%27%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 0501001502002503003504004505002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 63%54%56%62%77%81%31%40%37%33%16%12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 2023 01 17 P.13 4.4.1.+2021 2022 82.4 57.9 24.5 16.7 9.0 12.2 2022Q3/133/2/100 2021H1-7/-66/+16 57 16 Wind 2022Q3 52 14%2022+/2022Q3 14 2021 1 2022 120.4140.5163.7121.1112.2123.5133.187.568.049.47.94.8 3.5 2.473.884.186.792.7 91.797.1100.10204060801001201401601802021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2023 01 17 P.14 17 18 Wind Wind 19/20 Wind Wind 21 Wind 52.881.661.374.956.461.552.115.233.819.826.618.216.112.301020304050607080902021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 13%19%14%20%16%17%14%0%5%10%15%20%25%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 775%332%581%740%608%818%1433%02468101214162021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3/-21%-27%-23%-42%-32%-37%-31%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 1.651.561.601.341.381.371.391.651.551.601.271.30 1.301.3111.11.21.31.41.51.61.72021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2023 01 17 P.15 4.2.2022Q1-3 175 12%12.0 15%Q1/Q2/Q3 58/55/62+3%/-32%/+1%5.0/3.7/3.4+5%/-39%/+0.3%Q3 Q2 2022Q4 2023 2023 EPC 2022H1 14.8 0.4 22 Wind 23 Wind-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010203040506070809010019Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3-350%-300%-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%-70-60-50-40-30-20-100102019Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 2023 01 17 P.16 5.5.1.2022 2022 13%2023 3%2024 9%2022-2024 222/227/249-13%/+3%/+9%2022 2023-2024 2022-2024 15.71%/16.02%/16.26%2022-2023 2021 2022-2023 6.9%/7.1%/7.1%2022 2023-2024 2021 2022 82.4 57.9 24.5 16.7 9.0 12.2 2022 4.4 2023-2024 1 2022-2024 12.2/15.3/17.1 125%/25%/12%24 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 250.89 308.35 312.43 253.74 221.65 227.33 248.79 YoY 22.90%1.32%-18.79%-12.65%2.56%9.44%182.25 231.79 279.40 224.79 191.07 194.89 214.38 YoY 27.18%20.54%-19.55%-15.00%2.00%10.00%15.65 17.26 16.37 11.90 14.28 15.42 16.19 YoY 10.29%-5.16%-27.31%20.00%8.00%0.05 17.92 18.24 15.02 15.05 14.30 15.01 16.21 YoY 1.79%-17.65%0.20%-5.00%5.00%8.00%35.07 41.06 1.64 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 YoY 17.08%-96.01%21.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%Wind 2023 01 17 P.17 25 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 19.51%18.39%16.60%16.14%15.71%16.02%16.26%15.24%16.41%15.51%14.31%14.00%14.20%14.30%10.16%10.37%9.65%2.35%8.00%8.00%9.00%50.22%42.11%38.15%47.91%40.00%42.00%44.00%30.17%22.38%73.17%64.50%60.00%60.00%60.00%Wind 5.2.PB 5.2.1.PB 1 PB 2 PB 2019 8 21 PB PB PB PB PB PB PB PB=1 PB PB PB 1 2 2023 01 17 P.18 ROE 5-10 26 PB PB PB 1 ROE 0 ROE ROE 2 N N=2022(1+)=1 2022 2022 N i ROE 3 N r 4 3=3-/-2023 01 17 P.19 5.2.2.285 104%2022 123 1 r 2012-2022 300 10 4.55%2 N 15 ROE N=15 16 ROE 15 3 ROE 2023 ROE 12.5%2023 ROE 2016-2020 5 ROE 15.8%ROE 16-20 5 2023-2027 ROE 12.5%15.5%2027 ROE 2037 4.55%15 299.8/2022/236 2022 2022 82.4 57.9 24.5 16.7 9.0 12.2 2022 1.79 2022 11.9 2022 29.39 5%1.5 15.2 15 299.8 284.6 15 299.8 15.2 2022 123 PB 2.31 PB 1.15 104%2023 01 17 P.20 27 0.0 0.0 100%1.8 1.8 100%11.9 11.9 100%/235.6 0 0%2022 24.5 16.69 8.97 0.0 0.0 0%1.0 0.0 0%29.4 1.5 5%5%279.7 15.2 5%5.3.2022-2024 12.2/15.3/17.1 125%/25%/12%EPS 0.46/0.58/0.65 PE 11.6/9.3/8.3 PB PB 2.31 285 104%2023 01 17 P.21 6.24.5 16.7 9.0 12.2 PB 2023 01 17 P.22“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033