深度报告-20221229-东方证券-中科电气-300035.SZ-快充产品持续放量_一体化成果逐步显现_23页_1mb.pdf

300035.SZ|2004 2005 2009 2017 20182022 1.5 1 10 8 4.5 10 10 40%/355mAh/g 2C 4000 2022-2024 0.91 1.54 2.06 2023 16 PE 178.22 24.64 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()974 2,194 4,962 6,860 9,118(%)4.8%125.3%126.2%38.2%32.9%()186 411 773 1,313 1,757(%)8.5%121.0%88.2%69.8%33.8%()164 365 656 1,113 1,490(%)8.3%123.1%79.5%69.7%33.8%0.23 0.51 0.91 1.54 2.06(%)37.1%28.6%24.1%28.2%28.6%(%)16.8%16.7%13.2%16.2%16.3%(%)8.1%16.1%17.2%19.4%21.1%90.9 40.8 22.7 13.4 10.0 7.1 6.1 2.9 2.4 1.9.2022 12 28 20.59 24.64 52/36.78/18.52/A 72,331/63,534 A 14,893/2022 12 29 1 1 3 12-4.81 3.52-8.81-28.65-5.87-0.18-9.92-6.76 300 1.06 3.7 1.11-21.89 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 S0860517100003 S0860521080002 2.4.4.6.8.8.10.13.16.16.16.17.18.18.19.20 3 1.4 2 2022 08 30.5 3 2017-2021.7 4 2021.7 5.7 6.7 7 2018-2022H1.8 8 2017-2022H1.8 9 2016-2022H1.8 10 2016-2022H1.9 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.10 15.11 16.11 17/.12 18.12 19.12 20.13 21 2022.14 22.14 23 2021-2022H1.18 1.6 2.9 3.15 4 2022.04.28.17 5 2022.04.28.17 6.20 7.20 4 2004-2017 2004 4/EMS EMS 2005 2008 2009 EMS 2017-2017 2 99.9906%11 100%2018 9 1.5 1 11 37.50%2021 10 25 10 12 22.06 8 4.5 2022 1 10 2 10 1 5 40%2022 08 30 11.15%-2.92%2.90%2.59%-2.54%2 2022 08 30 17 ATL CATL 2017 60 SEI 6 1 54 2004 4 2008 3 2008 4 57 2004 4 2008 3 2008 4 2009 2 2014 7 2017 6 55 1989 2008 2008 10 2011 10 2011 11 2017 6 2020 6 34 2012 6 2015 5 2015 6 2018 10 2018 12 2020 6 52 2003 8 2008 5 2008 7 2009 2 2014 7 2017 6 2018 12 2020 6 2016 11 55 2016 8 2020 6 49 2001()2017 6 46 2017 6 47 1996 2017 6 48 1996 2002 2002 2014 2014 2017 2020 4 2020 6 28 2019 6 2020 6 34 2010 2013 2013 2019 FMEA 2019 2020 6 34 2008 7 2018 4 2018 5 2020 6 37 2018 3 2020 7 2020 6 2017 4.2 2021 21.9 2017 7 55.6%2021 87.8%3 2017-2021 4 2021 wind wind 2017 2018 80%2019 70%2020 5%2021 154%2018 6.64%2022H1 1.08%6.19%2.27%7.59%3.5%5.88%2.88%5 6 wind wind 0500001000001500002000002500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 88%12%0%0%50%100%150%200%0500001000001500002000002500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 7 2018-2022H1 8 2017-2022H1 wind wind 2016 11.8 2017 14.8 23.7%2018 19.2 29.7%2019 26.5 38%2020 36.5 35%2021 72 97%2022 54 68%2021 226GWh 183%2021 196%2021 11GWh 96%9 2016-2022H1 GGII 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1销售费用率 管理费用率财务费用率 研发费用率0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1净利率 毛利率0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 9 CR5 2018-2022H1 CR3 57%56%54%50%55%CR5 77%78%73%80%82%2018-2022H1 CR3 31%32%35%38%34%2018-2022H1 CR3 41%53%63%74%61%2018-2022H1 CR3 53%55%57%67%62%2 CR3 2022H1 34%55%61%62%2021 38%50%74%67%2020 35%54%63%57%2019 32%56%53%55%2018 31%57%41%53%CR5 2022H1 50%82%76%78%2021 55%80%87%79%2020 53%73%78%71%2019 51%78%68%72%2018 47%77%54%68%GGII 2016 68%,2022H1 85%10 2016-2022H1 GGII 0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 10 11 12 13 14 wind wind 2016 6-7/11 4-5/2-3/15/16/40%2022 8 1000 8 8 1)2)2021 0.9/2 0.99/3)2022 1-7 60%25%5%2%1%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002017-01-022017-05-022017-09-022018-01-022018-05-022018-09-022019-01-022019-05-022019-09-022020-01-022020-05-022020-09-022021-01-022021-05-022021-09-022022-01-022022-05-02:0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002017-01-022017-05-022017-09-022018-01-022018-05-022018-09-022019-01-022019-05-022019-09-022020-01-022020-05-022020-09-022021-01-022021-05-022021-09-022022-01-022022-05-02(310-320mAh/g)(330-340mAh/g)(340-360mAh/g)12 1)2)17 2022 18/19/wind wind 37%1%53%4%3%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002021-01-012021-02-152021-03-302021-05-122021-06-252021-08-102021-09-222021-11-032021-12-172022-01-312022-03-162022-04-272022-06-092022-07-252022-09-072022-10-192022-12-02大庆(1#A)抚顺(1#A)锦西(1#B)0.002000.004000.006000.008000.0010000.0012000.002021-01-042021-02-202021-04-062021-05-202021-07-052021-08-172021-09-292021-11-192022-01-042022-02-212022-04-062022-05-202022-07-052022-08-172022-09-302022-11-17 13 2022 1 10 15 2300 60V-120V 2300-2600 20-24 20 4000 2016 2018 65%14 21 2022 2018 1 0.6 1700/2720 2 5400 22 2017 44%18%33%5%电费折旧坩埚&电阻料直接人工 15 2021 5.2 3.5 2022 12.2 5 2022 41%2023 2024 2025 76.1%86.8%91.3%54.2/49.5/3/2021.04 13 3 5/2021.05 2,625 1.5/2021.10 25 10 2021.12 8 5 10 3 4.5 2022.01 6,000 60%5.1 10 2022.02 25 10 3 2015 20162018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 6.2 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 8 1 2 5.4 8 8 8 8 10 2 5 10 10 3.5 6.5 10 10 5 10 10 5 10 54.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.2 6.6 12.2 19.7 35.7 54.2 6.5 1 1 2 3.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 3 3 10 2 5 10 10 3.5 6.5 10 10 5 10 10 5 10 49.5 2.5 2.5 3.5 5 15 31 49.5 41%76%87%91%16 600km AION V P7 BMW iX xDrive50 A6e-tronConcept SOC/2014 2019 17 355mAh/g 2C 4000 2022H1 26%13%2020 2.5 2021 5.9 140%2022H1 4.7 107%2021 1 8.5%2022 6 9.1%CATL SK On ATL 4 2022.04.28 5 2022.04.28 18 23 2021-2022H1 2022-2024 1)2022-2024 12 19 28 2022 3.91 3.46 3.15/2022 22.9%27.5%28.1%2)2022-2024 2.7 2.8 3.0 44.3%43.6%43.7%3)22-24 1.2%,1.3%1.4%2.1%,2.0%1.9%4.5%4)22-24 15%8%9%8%8%8%9%10%10%10%10%10%9%8%8%8%8%9%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%贝特瑞 杉杉 紫宸 凯金 中科电气 尚太科技 翔丰华 其他 19 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 757.2 1,926.3 4,692.0 6,574.7 8,817.0 5.3%154.4%143.6%40.1%34.1%34.2%26.6%22.9%27.5%28.1%209.7 263.7 266.2 281.0 296.5 3.0%25.7%0.9%5.6%5.5%47.7%43.0%44.3%43.6%43.7%6.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7%-41.7%5.0%5.0%5.0%25.6%41.9%41.9%41.9%41.9%973.6 2,193.9 4,962.3 6,860.0 9,118.0 4.8%125.3%126.2%38.2%32.9%37.1%28.6%24.1%28.2%28.6%2021 5.2 3.5 2022 12.2 5 2022 41%2022 2023 2024 41%76%87%2022-2024 0.91 1.54 2.06 2023 16 PE 178.22 24.64 20 6 2022/12/28 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 603659 55.20 1.26 2.24 3.20 4.16 43.90 24.59 17.24 13.26 600884 17.88 1.48 1.32 1.68 2.05 12.12 13.51 10.64 8.71 835185 42.85 1.98 2.90 3.98 5.29 21.65 14.77 10.77 8.10 300890 42.63 0.93 1.83 3.05 3.77 46.05 23.28 13.99 11.32 300568 22.18 0.22 0.63 1.06 1.48 100.41 35.03 20.97 14.99 301349 113.30 2.02 2.69 4.57 6.33 55.96 42.05 24.77 17.91 100.41 42.05 24.77 17.91 12.12 13.51 10.64 8.10 46.68 25.54 16.40 12.38 41.89 24.42 15.74 12.07 2023 7 2022-20%-10%0 10%20%2022 545 595 656 735 856 2022-23%-12%12%23%2023-20%-10%0 10%20%2023 966 1088 1113 1256 1425 2023-23%-11%11%23%21 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 281 1,458 893 1,235 1,641 974 2,194 4,962 6,860 9,118 748 1,494 2,506 3,464 4,605 613 1,566 3,767 4,929 6,511 11 299 1,489 1,372 1,368 11 14 30 41 55 386 855 2,072 2,711 3,581 55 43 61 87 127 47 80 126 160 201 121 169 328 446 583 1,474 4,186 7,085 8,942 11,395 15 39 105 189 272 73 117 129 141 155 8 12 12 6 8 493 744 1,709 2,956 4,431(1)0 0 0 0 8 443 1,385 2,114 2,765 10 21 23 25 28 111 200 188 176 164 25 40 91 126 168 628 634 641 646 652 186 411 773 1,313 1,757 1,313 2,137 4,051 6,034 8,168 1 1 2 2 2 2,786 6,323 11,137 14,976 19,563 3 3 3 3 3 179 1,607 3,711 5,883 8,243 184 409 772 1,311 1,756 266 640 1,469 1,922 2,539 20 44 116 197 263 196 397 478 577 695 164 365 656 1,115 1,492 642 2,644 5,658 8,383 11,477 0(0)(0)1 2 0 285 285 285 285 164 365 656 1,113 1,490 0 0 0 0 0 0.23 0.51 0.91 1.54 2.06 52 953 0 0 0 52 1,238 285 285 285 693 3,882 5,944 8,668 11,763 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0(0)(0)1 3 643 642 723 723 723 4.8%125.3%126.2%38.2%32.9%837 885 2,996 2,996 2,996 8.5%121.0%88.2%69.8%33.8%613 914 1,474 2,588 4,078 8.3%123.1%79.5%69.7%33.8%0 0 0 0 0 2,093 2,441 5,193 6,308 7,800 37.1%28.6%24.1%28.2%28.6%2,786 6,323 11,137 14,976 19,563 16.8%16.7%13.2%16.2%16.3%ROE 8.1%16.1%17.2%19.4%21.1%ROIC 7.6%11.9%11.0%11.7%11.9%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 164 365 656 1,115 1,492 24.9%61.4%53.4%57.9%60.1%39 51 142 272 442 0.0%19.7%60.7%79.0%88.9%15 39 105 189 272 2.30 1.58 1.25 1.07 0.99(10)(21)(23)(25)(28)1.68 1.26 0.88 0.74 0.68 34(920)(2,572)(969)(1,320)(125)(377)(950)0 2 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.3 117(862)(2,641)582 861 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0(97)(817)(2,036)(2,236)(2,556)0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5(7)(43)(12)(13)(14)126 354 26 25 28 0.23 0.51 0.91 1.54 2.06 21(506)(2,022)(2,223)(2,542)0.18-1.34-3.65 0.80 1.19(58)245 3 0 0 2.89 3.38 7.18 8.72 10.78 38 48 2,192 0 0(150)2,176 1,903 1,983 2,088 90.9 40.8 22.7 13.4 10.0(170)2,469 4,098 1,983 2,088 7.1 6.1 2.9 2.4 1.9(2)(1)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 66.3 31.7 15.6 9.0 6.4(35)1,099(565)342 406 EV/EBIT 79.3 35.3 18.1 10.6 7.8 22 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer