深度报告-20230102-华创证券-德邦股份-603056.SH-深度研究报告_大物流时代系列（17）-顺应行业趋势_优化成本结构_协同京东物流_公司拐点确立_45页_3mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 02 603056 17 25.12 20.83 2022 1 2004 2013 2021 300+1300+2 3 2022 9 71.93%1 C2M B2C+CR10 7 CR10 10%2 a 58%21H2 22 b 6 2021 1+22Q3 14.5%2015 a 21Q3 5.2%21 3.1%22H1 8.7%b 2019 43.4%2022Q3 42.1%2019 30.4%2022Q3 28.4%c d 22H1 7.6 45%2 TOB 23 3 a b 2022-2024 5.8 12.9 15.6 EPS 0.57 1.25 1.52 PE 37 17 14 22H2 23 24 20%+2024 PEG 23 20 PE 258 25.12 21%ReportFinancialIndex 021-20572539 S0360516090002 S0360522100002 S0360522070003 玥 010-63214633()102,695.75()96,000.00()213.92()199.97(%)56.96()6.08 12/22.40/10.38(12)-29%20%70%119%21/12 22/03 22/05 22/08 22/10 22/122021-12-312022-12-30 300 603056 2009 1210 2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()31359 31561 35054 37533(%)14.0%0.6%11.1%7.1%()142 584 1288 1561(%)-74.7%309.1%120.3%21.2%()0.14 0.57 1.25 1.52()150 37 17 14()3 4 3 2 2022 12 30 603056 2009 1210 10-11 2023 1 C2M B2C+2 21H2 6 2021 1+22Q3 14.5%2015 a b c d 2 TOB 23 3 2022-2024 5.8 12.9 15.6 EPS 0.57 1.25 1.52 PE 37 17 14 22H2 23 24 20%+2024 PEG 23 20 PE 258 25.12 21%603056 2009 1210 4 2022.8.8 2022.9.11.11.15 1.15 2.19.21+.21 1.21 2.24 3.25 TOB 23.26.27 1.27 2.29.30.30.30.31 2022.31 1-2013.31 2 2013-2021.31.35 1.35 2.38 603056 2009 1210 5 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.9 5 2022 12 30.10 6.11 7.12 8.12 9 C2M.12 10.13 11 2021.14 12 2016-2020.14 13 2020.14 14.15 15.15 16 2021.16 17.17 18.17 19.17 20.17 21.18 22.19 23.19 24.19 25.19 26.20 27.20 28.21 29.21 30.22 31/.22 32.22 33.22 603056 2009 1210 6 34.23 35.23 36.24 37.24 38.24 39.24 40.25 41.25 42.25 43.25 44.26 45.26 46.26 47 VS/.27 48.28 49.28 50.29 51.29 52.30 53.30 54.32 55.32 56.33 57.33 58.33 59.33 60.34 61.34 62 2021.35 63/.36 64/.36 65.36 66.37 67.37 68.37 603056 2009 1210 7 69.38 70.38 71.39 72.39 73.39 74.40 75.40 76.40 77.41 78.41 79.41 603056 2009 1210 8 2022 60 3-60 3-60 3 1 2021 300+1300+20 2012 60.5 2021 313.6 367 1336.2 2022 228.2 1.1%70.5 30.9%150.7 66%2022 603 5.2%248 355 603056 2009 1210 9 2 3 2022 6 8964 6172 7 94.2%6.74 145 76 35 34 2141 21329 2022 11 4 2022 2022 9 30 71.93%603056 2009 1210 10 2022 3 100%66.5%2022 9 13.15/5.43%71.93%28.07%16.67%2021 3 9.20/6.52%36 2024 4 22 2022 9 30 4.19%2022 9 30 7,142,082 0.7%5 2022 12 30 2022 8 10 CEO CFO 603056 2009 1210 11 6 2022/10/27 2008 7()2011 1 2015 5 2016 6 2018 3 1 2018 3 2019 2 2019 2 2020 12 2022/8/24 2001 7 2005 10 2005 11 2009 8 2009 8 2019 3 2015 7 2018 8 2018 1 6 CEO 2018 8 2019 5 2019 8 2022 4 2022 4 8 2022/8/24 2012 6 2022 4 8 2022/8/24 2007 8 2018 3 2018 3 2019 9 2019 9 2022 4 2022 4 8 2022/8/24 2006 8 2012 2 2012 2 2022 8 9 1 21 2000 66.5%48.1%19.4%43.8%37.6%65.9%2021 87.2%69.6%54.5%603056 2009 1210 12 60.4%60.7%86.2%7 8 C2M C2M Customer to Manufacturer/SKU C2M/2019 C2M 9 C2M 603056 2009 1210 13 B2C/30-100KG/2019 6987 2019-2022 36%55%10+C2M 603056 2009 1210 14 2021 1300 8%2 CR10 7 CR10 5%11 2021 12 2016-2020 SJ Consulting 2000 2002 Consolidated Freight 2003 YRCWorldwide YellowFreightSystem RoadwayExpress 2004 Yellow Roadway US Freight YRC Freight 2005 UPS Overnite 2021 Q2 2015 XPO Logistics Con-Way 13 2020 SJ Consulting Transport Topics 603056 2009 1210 15 2015-2021 CR5 CR10 CR25 1.8%2.4%3.1%4.2%6.0%7.0%30 10 2016-2021 10 267.6 984.7 24.2%10 30 74.2%84.9%10.4 2017-2021 10 4694 7504 12.4%14 15 1 1 2021 1.75-3.53/603056 2009 1210 16 2.70/0.59-0.77 50-60%0.98-1.28 0.5/50-100/25-50+0.5 16 2021 2-2021 786 73%60%3488 42%58%603056 2009 1210 17 17 18 3 2018-20 2018 2018 2019 7 3 2018 312 2021 1465 67%2019 2021 367 2020 10 2021 67 2018-2020 1.75/1.69/3.0 2.84/19 20 603056 2009 1210 18 21H2 21Q2 21 5.8 21 230 22-4.3%0.1%21 19 120%+22Q2 10.8%22 21H2 21Q3 5.2%21 3.1%22H1 8.7%21 0.6%22H1 5%22Q3 2.56 1.7 21 3.83 2.63 2.11 2.05 2.06 2.03 1.62 1.39 1.51 1.75 1.73 1.69 1.74 1.86 2.30 0.8%8.7%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%00.511.522.533.544.52015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2022Q3顺丰快运单价（元/公斤）德邦快运单公斤收入（元）同比 同比 603056 2009 1210 19 22 23 2 1 6 2021 ARCB 5.84/FedEx Freight 3.96/ODFL 3.48/YRCW SAIA 2.80/2.22 2.28/6 SAIA 7.5%ODFL 6.6%ARCB 6.1%Fdx Freight 4.9%YRCW 3.9%UPS Freight 2010 FDX Freight 2020 2021 24 25 603056 2009 1210 20 26 2+27 ABF Freight ODFL 2013-21 1.4%1.3%SAIA Freight YRCW 2.5%2.4%2021 ABF ODFL 1.3%1.0%SAIA YRCW 2.7%2.5%Mastio Company ODFL 99%25 15-21 603056 2009 1210 21 28 29 3 20 70 GDP+1 2019 14.1%9.9%2020 11.7%21H1 10.1%21 11.1%22H1 22Q3 14.5%2015 0.35/1 603056 2009 1210 22 21 21Q3 5.2%21 3.1%22H1 8.7%22Q3 2.4%30 31/32 33 2 2019 2020 2021 2019 43.4%2022Q3 42.1%603056 2009 1210 23 2021 2 pct 44.7%22 45.8%22Q3 42.1%18 2019 30.4%2022Q3 28.4%2019 2021-2022H1 2019-2022Q3 32%66.2%2,216 2,141 30.4%28.4%2019 5.6%2022Q3 4.7%2021 22Q3 4.7%2020-2022 H1 7,253 6,172 34 35 603056 2009 1210 24 36 37 2 2016-2020 10-11%2020 2021 9%2020 7.9%1.1pct 2021H2 2022H1 2022H1 8.2%2022Q3 Q3 8.5%2018 2-3 1.5%38 39 603056 2009 1210 25 3 22 2014-2018 5%2018 22 22H1 7.6 5.1%45%22Q3 4.1 2.5%40 41 42 43 603056 2009 1210 26 TOB 23 B2B To B 7 3 2012-2022H1 GDP GDP 2020 5%GDP 2021 10%B 44 Wind 45 46 Wind Wind 603056 2009 1210 27 1 1-47 VS/2022H1 2400 3100 1400 1.9 1+9.3 2 603056 2009 1210 28 48 40%2021 404 54.7%49 603056 2009 1210 29 2 2022H1 8964 6172 6.74 145 3.4 2.13 2141 2 1 20KG-3T 2021 67 5 367 3C 50 51 603056 2009 1210 30 2 2020 8 30 55.1%3000+30+2021 113.8 5.2 4.5%2021 320 52 53 180 687 50%2022-2024 5.8 12.9 15.6 EPS 0.57 1.25 1.52 PE 37 17 14 22H2 23 24 20%+2024 PEG 23 20 PE 258 25.12 21%1 603056 2009 1210 31 2 3 2022 2022 1-2013 1 1996-2001 1996 1998 2000 2001-2 2001-2013 2004 2006 IBM 2008 2010 26 90%2 2013-2021 603056 2009 1210 32 1 2013 2014 40%20%2013 44.1%16.6%2015 11.6%2013 42.3%2014 15.0%2015 5.5%/2013 48.8%2015 5.8%2014 2013 18.6%8.3%2015-16 10-12%/27.9%11.2%2016 6.7%2015-16 15%-16%2013-16 50%40%54 55 603056 2009 1210 33 56 57 2 1 2013 11 3kg-60kg 2014 2018 7 2019 2014-2015 2 2018 60%2014 4.7%2021 62.9%2019 2014-2018 50%58 59 603056 2009 1210 34 3 2 2015 2018 7 2014 5,376 2021 9127 2016 66.8%2021 94.5%60 61 603056 2009 1210 35 62 2021 1 1 2004/30-40%0.3-0.4/30%-37%450-550/2014-2016 17-20%25%15 pct 2016 94%75%603056 2009 1210 36 63/64/65 2006 3%1%0.10%2014 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62013 2014 2015 2016精准卡航/城运单价 精准汽运单价 整车单价 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,5002012 2013 2014 2015 2016公路快运单吨收入（元）零担单吨收入（元）精准卡航单吨收入 精准汽运单吨收入17.8%14.5%13.4%19.9%18.7%15.7%20.3%19.7%17.1%24.9%26.1%23.8%10.4%5.6%3.2%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2014 2015 2016整体毛利率 公路快运 公路快运-零担 精准卡航/城运 精准汽运 卡航毛利占整体 603056 2009 1210 37 66 2 2005 13,466 1,811 2020 27.5%52.5%67 68 603056 2009 1210 38 3 2008 2 1 2013/2014-2015 2 2018 60%69 70 603056 2009 1210 39/8-9KG 10 3 2016 2016-2018 10pct 71 72 73 2 a 2010 603056 2009 1210 40 74 75 76 b 2012-2016 4.2%4%2018 2012 2018 18-19%2019 14.4%2019 2017 603056 2009 1210 41 77 78 3 2015 2015 199 2021 284 40%100%2019-2020 3.19%2.73%79 603056 2009 1210 42 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1162 2995 4450 6658 31359 31561 35054 37533 30 21 25 26 28028 27947 30375 32366 2170 2070 2358 2559 104 96 108 116 234 233 253 329 488 489 543 582 22 24 25 26 2779 2640 2755 2869 0 0 0 0 60 32 35 38 1798 1635 1935 2033 169 110 110 106 5416 6978 9046 11631-21-21-21-21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 194 194 194 194 0 0 0 0 4661 4384 4076 3646 34 83 50 50 197 297 422 522 403 400 400 400 473 426 383 345 173 705 1551 1880 4730 2352 2307 2271 73 73 73 73 10255 7653 7382 6978 75 75 75 75 15671 14631 16428 18609 171 703 1549 1878 2443 2945 3445 3945 29 119 261 317 157 110 138 138 142 584 1288 1561 2651 2349 2730 2966 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 142 584 1288 1561 79 80 88 95 NOPLAT 283 676 1379 1650 316 316 316 316 EPS()0.14 0.57 1.25 1.52 1211 500 500 300 933 808 954 1031 7795 7113 8176 8796 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 14.0%0.6%11.1%7.1%1679 1679 1167 1166 EBIT-59.1%138.6%104.2%19.6%1680 1680 1169 1169-74.7%309.1%120.3%21.2%9475 8793 9345 9965 6198 5840 7085 8646 10.6%11.5%13.3%13.8%-2-2-2-2 0.5%1.9%3.7%4.2%6196 5838 7083 8644 ROE 2.3%10.0%18.2%18.1%15671 14631 16428 18609 ROIC 4.1%8.2%14.8%15.1%60.5%60.1%56.9%53.5%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 86.1%87.8%72.2%62.6%2402 1874 2396 2625 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1546 1976 2594 2772 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3-2-3-1-1-98 110-312-278 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 350-348 410 237 24 24 23 24 606 139-294-105 32 32 30 32-2788 1320-925-700 0 0 0 0-3056-1057-971-737()-11 0 0 0 0.14 0.57 1.25 1.52 279 2377 46 37 2.34 1.82 2.33 2.56 156-1361-16 283 6.04 5.69 6.90 8.42 2486-209 501 301-278-62-63-60 P/E 150 37 17 14 605 605 605 605 P/B 3 4 3 2-2657-1695-1059-563 EV/EBITDA 18 14 10 9 603056 2009 1210 43 2016 2021 21 2020 21 2019 2018 2017 2020 2020 21 2021 玥 2021 2021 603056 2009 1210 44 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 603056 2009 1210 45(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522