深度报告-20230108-平安证券-泸州老窖-000568.SZ-浓香鼻祖高势增长_改革红利持续释放_26页_3mb.pdf

2023 1 8(000568.SZ)请 通 过 合 法 途径获 取本公 司研究 报告，如经由 未经许 可的渠 道获得 研究报 告，请 慎重 使用并 注意阅 读研究 报告尾 页的声 明内容。234.57/25.89%()1,472 A()1,465 B/H()3,453 A()3,436()21.63(%)26.4 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI S1060522030001 WANGMENG S1060121120048 PANJUNRU 0.08%25.89%24.86%90%17 2025 2-2.5 90 1988 2003 2003 268 2011 889 1573 2012“”2015 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()16,653 20,642 25,525 31,062 37,274 YOY(%)5.3 24.0 23.7 21.7 20.0()6,006 7,956 10,200 12,662 15,425 YOY(%)29.4 32.5 28.2 24.1 21.8(%)83.0 85.7 86.1 86.7 87.1(%)36.1 38.5 40.0 40.8 41.4 ROE(%)26.0 28.4 31.1 32.7 33.6 EPS(/)4.08 5.40 6.93 8.60 10.48 P/E()57.5 43.4 33.8 27.3 22.4 P/B()15.0 12.3 10.5 8.9 7.5 证券研究报告 2/26 1573 300-600 2015+2022-2024 102.0/126.6/154.3,+28.2%/+24.1%/+21.8%EPS 6.93/8.60/10.48 1 2 3 4 3/26.6 1.1.6 1.2.7 1.3.7.8 2.1 1988-2002“”.8 2.2 2003-2011.9 2.3 2012-2014.12 2.4 2015.14.18 3.1“”.18 3.2.18 3.3.21 3.4.23.24.24 4/26 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 5 90.8 6 1998-2002.8 7 1991-2002%.9 8 1991-2002 GDP.9 9 2003-2011 GDP.9 10 2003-2011.9 11 2003-2011.10 12 2003-2011%.10 13.11 14 2003-2011.11 15 2003-2011.11 16 2003-2011.12 17 2012-2013“”.12 18 2012-2014/.13 19.13 20 2012-2014%.13 21 2012-2014%.13 22 2015%.14 23 2015%.14 24 2015%.14 25.15 26 2015.16 27.16 28.16 29.17 30 2022“”.17 31 2015.17 32 2021.17 33.18 34 2021.19 35 2021.19 36.19 5/26 37 1573.20 38 5.20 39 2021.21 40 1935.21 41 2013-2021.21 42 2012-2021.21 43.22 44 3.22 45.23 46 60.23 47 2013-2021.23 48.23 49.24 6/26 1.1 1952 1955 36 1994 3 5 9 1 1952 1963 1979 1984 1989 wind“1573”“”1952 690 2006 1573 2 1915 1952 1956 1979 1984 1989 1990 1996 1573 2006 1573 2008 2013 1619 16 3 wind 23 1573 7/26 1573 1959 1.2 2022 25.89%24.86%2021 12 29 521 A 0.6031%22%3 22Q3 1.3 2020 17 100 1619 50 100 5381 30 3086 90%2017 30 2020 12 100%10 10 38 2019 40 2025 1573 8/26 2020 6 74.14 14.63 88.77 2020 1.5 2025 2-2.5 4 2017 2020 30 33.41 2019 2025 40 40.73 2020 14,63 70 88.77 2.1 1988-2002 1988 7 13 1992 1998-2002 CAGR 19.3%30.7%CAGR 6.0%5 90 6 1998-2002 Wind 1996 1998 1998-2002 GDP 8.29%1991-1997 11.50%3.11 1998 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00001020304050601998 1999 2000 2001 2002 9/26 2002 378.47 1997 708.66 47.6%1 2 7 1991-2002%8 1991-2002 GDP Wind Wind 2.2 2003-2011 2003 1 2003-2011 GDP 10.86%CAGR 20.47%2 2001 WTO 2008 3 2005 2006 25%20%9 2003-2011 GDP 10 2003-2011 Wind Wind 2007 2003 218 659 202%2003 268 2011 889 232%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0246810121991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 YOY%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001GDP GDP 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011GDP GDP 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002003 2005 2007 2009 2011YOY%10/26 11 2003-2011 Wind 90 2001 1573 2011 66.94%2003 50.74%16.2 12 2003-2011%Wind 2006 10 3000 12.22/3.67 2009 01002003004005006007008009001,0002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011:53:500ml:52:500ml:1573 0%20%40%60%80%100%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011%11/26-2011 5%13 14 2003-2011 15 2003-2011 Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050607080902003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YOY%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%051015202530352003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YOY%12/26 16 2003-2011 wind 2.3 2012-2014“”2012 3 26 12 4 12 1,700 1,300 17 2012-2013 2 0 12 3 4 5 10 11 12 2 0 13 1 4 規 11 Wind 2012-2014 819 2013 7 889 999 819 729 2014 680 580 550 819 609 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01234562003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011%13/26 18 2012-2014/2012 1 619 659 889 9 819 2013 2 729 7 999 2014 5 609 680 7 580 8 550 10 576 12 609 wind 1 2 2012-2014 2012 115.56 2014 53.53 50%2014 19 Wind 20 2012-2014%21 2012-2014%Wind Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060801001201402012 2013 2014 YOY%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%010203040502012 2013 2014 YOY%14/26 2.4 2015 2015 6 1 2015 2018 400 2 3 2022 4 2016 22 2015%23 2015%Wind Wind 24 2015%Wind 1 2012-2014 2014 2012 2015 8000 2015 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01020304050607080902015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020%15/26 2018 400 2015 1573 2018 1573 2020 2014 2019 2 3 1573,-1 2 25 Wind 2015 1 2016 7;2 2015 168 2021 879 CAGR 39.2%16/26 26 2015 Wind 3 2015 8.74 2019 41.86 CAGR 47.94%2020 2021 2015-2021 CAGR 26.61%1 7 2 2017 2018 2019 2020 27 28 Wind Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005006007008009001,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY%17/26 29 30 2022 Wind Wind 31 2015 32 2021 Wind Wind 4 2021 4 29 1 2 2021 9 27 521 883.46 92.71/9 512 1.42 8 20212023 22%75/65%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0510152025303540452015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%18/26 3.1+2015 1573 1573 2018 1573 1573 300-600 2021 1952 7 33 1573 1573 2848 1573 1499 1952 1952 899 60 528 388 398 90 578 60 468 30 338 D9 208 134 88 75 G1 798 G2 528 G3 246 3.2 2021 1-12 715.63 0.59%6,033.48 18.60%1,701.94 32.95%17.6%/11.0%/3.4%44.0%/19.1%/6.2%19/26 34 2021 35 2021 Wind Wind 2017 6.06%Euromonitor 2026 2846 36 Euromonitor 2013 2015 3-6 2016 2017 2016 10 12 660 740 2017 3 680 2019 10 1573 2020 890 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 20/26 37 1573 Wind 38 5 2017 1 3 680 7/760/810/820/899 9 10 969 12 2018 4 5/840/880 6 2014-2017/810 7 2019 1/810/880/1099 5 860 8 840/919 9 12/850/860 2020 1 850 6 10 920 7 980 1399 8 1499 9/950/890 2021 1 1050 2021 7 9 2021 12 1100 70/1080 2022 1 2022 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002016/6/7 2017/6/7 2018/6/7 2019/6/7 2020/6/7 2021/6/7:(52):500ml:1573(52):500ml:21/26 2600 1573 2022 1 18 1935 39 2021 40 1935 1573 3000 7000 1573 2020 10/10/38 2021 7178 12.2%29.8%2020 32189 2021 35128 9.1%7178 15.1%37.9%2021 24100 30307 15916 23.7%45.1%41 2013-2021 42 2012-2021 Wind Wind 3.3 300-800 300-800 300-500 500-800 300-500 20 M3 10 2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0001/71/282/183/114/14/225/136/36/247/158/58/269/1610/710/2811/1812/912/30(2022)(2022)(2021)(2021)0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021()%22/26 8/16 1998 500-800 30 M6+15 60 V3 20 1988 43 500-800 30 M6+15 60 V3 20 1988 300-500 20 M3 10 8/16 1998 200-300 100 2016 2017 2019 10 2022 5 270 300 300 44 3 2016 1 9 5 11/30/198 12 188 2017 1 3 218 10 218 2018 1 10 12 20 2019 5 10 6 30 9 60 498 598 10 308 2020 11 388 20 12 20 2021 3 328 7 358 40 60 2014 4 60 60 400-500 60 300-400 200-300 2021 60 2018 60 7.5 46%2019 10 2021 20 23/26 45 46 60 30/60/90 15-20 2017 15 2020 20 2021 78%2020 2022 5 30/60/90 210/260/415 3.4 2013 2015 39.95%65.79%49.42%2016 2018 28.45%24.93%21.5%2021 9.78%2021 60-80 2021 88 500ml 47 2013-2021 48 02004006008001,0001,2001,4000 2 3 4 5 6 7/500ml-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%0510152025303540452013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%24/26 2015+2022-2024 102.0/126.6/154.3,+28.2%/+24.1%/+21.8%EPS 6.93/8.60/10.48 49 EPS PE 2023/1/6 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600519.SH 1803.77 41.76 50.12 58.28 68.77 43.2 36.0 31.0 26.2 000858.SZ 190.46 6.02 6.81 7.78 9.13 31.6 28.0 24.5 20.9 37.4 32.0 27.7 23.5 000568.SZ 234.57 5.40 6.93 8.60 10.48 43.4 33.8 27.3 22.4 1 2 3 4 25/26 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 26575 30858 39552 49761 13513 18389 24827 32498 4759 4900 5963 7155 29 163 198 237 178 193 235 282 7278 6276 7342 8545 818 937 988 1044 16636 15155 13642 12095 2627 2805 2982 3160 8142 7128 6082 5001 2606 2172 1738 1303 3261 3050 2840 2630 43212 46013 53194 61856 10947 10316 12839 15477 0 0 0 0 2420 2827 3307 3849 8527 7489 9532 11628 4128 2841 1641 530 4031 2745 1545 434 96 96 96 96 15075 13157 14480 16007 97 63 20-32 1465 1472 1472 1472 3755 3748 3748 3748 22820 27573 33474 40662 28040 32794 38694 45882 43212 46013 53194 61856 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7686 11850 14581 17141 7937 10166 12619 15373 552 1759 1811 1865-217 108 28-52-202-186-186-186-384-38 267 100-0 41 41 41-2678-133-153-173 1975 100 120 140-741 0 0 0-3913-233-273-313-3183-6842-7990-9296 0 0 0 0 44-1287-1200-1112-3226-5555-6790-8185 1821 4875 6438 7671 iFinD 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 20642 25525 31062 37274 2952 3542 4143 4822 2865 3380 4100 4920 3599 3727 4473 5293 1056 1404 1677 1975 138 139 169 203-217 108 28-52 0 0 0 0 81 33 41 49 52 43 43 43 6 0 0 0 202 186 186 186-0 12 12 12 10590 13499 16752 20401 27 35 35 35 67 60 60 60 10551 13474 16726 20376 2614 3309 4107 5003 7937 10166 12619 15373-18-34-43-52 7956 10200 12662 15425 EBITDA 10886 15342 18566 22189 EPS 5.40 6.93 8.60 10.48 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E(%)24.0 23.7 21.7 20.0(%)33.1 27.5 24.1 21.8(%)32.5 28.2 24.1 21.8(%)85.7 86.1 86.7 87.1(%)38.5 40.0 40.8 41.4 ROE(%)28.4 31.1 32.7 33.6 ROIC(%)46.3 52.2 67.7 87.9(%)34.9 28.6 27.2 25.9(%)-33.7-47.6-60.1-69.9 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 4.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 1.22 1.28 1.28 1.28()5.40 6.93 8.60 10.48()5.22 8.05 9.91 11.65()19.05 22.28 26.29 31.17 P/E 43.4 33.8 27.3 22.4 P/B 12.3 10.5 8.9 7.5 EV/EBITDA 33 22 17 14 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%“”2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 9 16 100033