深度报告-20230217-国盛证券-海亮股份-002203.SZ-铜管龙头延伸布局高附加值铜箔业务_打开成长新空间_28页_1mb (1).pdf

|2023 02 17 002203.SZ 1 30 17.4%2025 30%2 2021(5)15/2025 2022 9 1.25/3 30%15 12 3 2025 2025 2073GWh 2020-2025 CAGR 36%21 2021 34%2022 3 119.7 79.8/36.5/3.4/2024 10 5 79.8 131 700/2020 2022-2024 698.62 878.17 1052.30 12.05 16.73 25.06 PE 20.2 14.6 9.7 PB 2.1 1.9 1.6 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 46,410 63,310 69,862 87,817 105,230 yoy%12.8 36.4 10.3 25.7 19.8 678 1,107 1,205 1,673 2,506 yoy%-36.3 63.4 8.9 38.8 49.7 EPS/0.34 0.56 0.61 0.84 1.26%6.9 9.7 9.6 11.9 15.3 P/E 36.0 22.0 20.2 14.6 9.7 P/B 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 Wind 2023 2 15 2 15()12.25()24,294.16()1,983.20(%)97.84 30()4.20 S0680521030003 S0680121100007-37%-27%-18%-9%0%9%18%2022-02 2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 300 2023 02 17 P.2 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 16664 21103 22072 33205 32885 46410 63310 69862 87817 105230 4196 4703 7615 9573 11471 44733 60704 66022 82564 98342 4184 5943 5232 8815 8017 95 106 117 160 190 431 265 503 462 695 114 122 135 424 293 1093 1230 1333 1888 1972 774 756 958 1296 1502 5079 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49.7%3.6 4.1 5.5 6.0 6.5%1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.4 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%6.9 9.7 9.6 11.9 15.3 703-2580 3571-2808 5411 ROIC%5.4 6.7 6.6 6.7 9.3 700 1131 1233 1714 2570 373 363 430 587 758%60.9 63.5 61.7 68.6 63.8-59 357 304 500 392%42.3 60.7 36.5 67.8 38.6-116-181-108-132-134 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2-12-4262 1749-5465 1861 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8-183 11-37-11-35-719-532-699-1612-1610 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 800 1528 174 922 775 10.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 112 485-240-246-246 8.2 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 193 1481-765-935-1082-220 3091-1469-1143-1140 0.34 0.56 0.61 0.84 1.26-1291 2673 0 0 0 0.35-1.30 1.80-1.42 2.73 1681-81-821-578-676 4.62 5.25 5.79 6.56 7.74 0 15 16 0 0 4 170 0 0 0 P/E 36.0 22.0 20.2 14.6 9.7-614 315-665-565-464 P/B 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6-140-57 1402-5564 2661 EV/EBITDA 17.5 13.9 12.0 10.4 6.6 Wind 2023 2 15 2023 02 17 P.3.5 1.1 33.5 1.2.7 1.3&.9 1.4.11.15 2.1.16 2.1.1.16 2.1.2.17 2.2.18.19 3.1.19 3.2.21 3.2.1 75%.21 3.2.2.22 3.2.3.23 3.3.23.25 4.1.25 4.2.26.27 1.5 2.6 3 79.8/.6 4 15 119.7/.7 5 34.04%.8 6.9 7.10 8.10 9 15.11 10 2022 6.11 11.11 12 2021.12 13 2021 11.07 63.36%.12 14 2021/93.14/91.37.12 15.13 16.13 17.13 18.13 19.14 20 2021 65.9%34.1%.14 21 30%.14 2023 02 17 P.4 22.14 23 11%.15 24 2021 1990 11%.15 25 2021.16 26 2021.17 27 2021.17 28 IPE.18 29.19 30 8%.19 31 13%.19 32 2022 636 687.20 33 2021 324GWh 126.6%.20 34 2021 68%.20 35 2025 2073GWh.21 36.21 37 2020-2025 CAGR+32%.21 38 2020-2025 CAGR+36%.21 39 2021 75%.22 40 2025 6 m 88.5%.22 41.22 42 2021.23 43 2021.23 44 2021 98%99%.23 45.24 46 6 m.24 47 6 m 4.5 m 8 m.24 48 2021A-2024.26 49.27 2023 02 17 P.5 1.1 33 2023 2001 2008 2021 26.2%17.4%2021 15 1.25/2022 9 4.5-8 2023 1 2001-2005 Z&P 2 2006-2015 3 2016-1 2001-2005 Z&P 1989 1993 2001 2002 12 10 2003 Z&P Enterprises Corporation 2006-2015 2006 2008 2008 10.25/3.2/10 2009 2015 2023 02 17 P.6 2016-2016 JMF Company 2016 6 1.9 2018 1 100 2 2019 KME 28 5.2+2021 14.58%2021 70%8 2021 15 2 21 2022 3 119.7 79.8/36.5/3.4/3 79.8/79.8 36.5 3.4 119.7 2016 100%JMF Company-Luvata Heating CoolingTechnologies(Thailand)Ltd.2018 100%Kabelmetal Messing Beteiligungsges mbH KME Brass Germany GmbH KME Brass France SAS KME Brass Italy SpA Ibertubos S.A.U 2021 70%-2019 100%2017 100%2023 02 17 P.7 4 15 119.7/26 11 10-10.5-6 2 8 1.8 1.6 76.9-7.1 2.5 14.5 0.2 8 10.5 42.8-119.7-5 2025 2024 13 79.8 131 700/1.2 2022 6 Z&P 3.04%84.12%29.71%0.63%0.66%34.04%2003 Z&P Enterprises Corporation 2022 8 29 Z&P 10.84%2023 02 17 P.8 5 34.04%1989 2017 47 47 10%2023 02 17 P.9 6 Wind 3 1 2016 193 2498 3.8 1.49%12 2021 2 2018 442 1252 0.6366%2022 2 22 3 2021 699 3666 1.86%1.3&2023 02 17 P.10 7 2022 3 83 8 国家或地区产品认证要求 本公司情况 美国、加拿大 PEX 黄铜管件需要通过 NSF 认证 已取得 欧盟铜水管需要通过 BSI 认证 已取得 美国、加拿大空调制冷用铜管需要通过 WHI 认证 已取得 美国、加拿大铜水管需要通过 NSF 认证 已取得 美国管件产品需要通过 UPC 认证 已取得 美国 ASTMB75 铜管产品需要 通过 UPC 认证 已取得 美国铜水管产品需要通过 UPC 认证 已取得 南非铜水管需要通过 SABS 认证 已取得 美国、加拿大铜环需要通过 WHI 认证 已取得 香港铜水管 NUTEK 公司检测 已取得 澳大利亚铜水管需要通过 SAI 认证 已取得 2021 8%2023 02 17 P.11 5G 2021 11 15 12 3 6 m 4.5 m 89 2021 12 2022 6 2022 9 1.25/22Q4 2.5/23Q3 5 2025 15 9 15 10 2022 6 1.4 2020 2004 11 Wind 2021 2016 2020 2021 634.39 36.37%11.07 63.36%2022 14.9%381.05 4.72%6.51 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0000246810122004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022H1 LME/2023 02 17 P.12 12 2021 13 2021 11.07 63.36%Wind Wind 1 2017 52%45.1 2 2019 KME 33%76.1 2021 93.14/91.37 13.72%/9.89%100%14 2021/93.14/91.37 2021 61%/11%/3%2012-2018 2019 2020 180.00299.13406.98 412.59465.20634.39381.050.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0001002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1(%)5.517.059.0910.636.7811.076.51-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.000246810122016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1(%)30 45 57 76 82 93 29 45 57 75 83 91 01020304050607080901002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 02 17 P.13 15 16 Wind Wind 2021 63%24%12%2018 KME 5 28 2021 5.6%/7.1%/1.4%2021 2021 40%2020 1865/2021 41%2625/2022 3252/17 18 Wind Wind 154231304257 25638622301002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 85%77%75%62%55%61%59%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 12.515.420.923.612.917.312.40.60.70.93.42.36.52.5051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 87%85%88%81%72%63%73%4%4%4%12%13%24%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023 02 17 P.14 19 Wind 2021/417.35/215.75 42.81%/25.54%65.9%34.1%20 2021 65.9%34.1%21 30%Wind Wind 2016 2021 1.01 2021/1.19%-0.47pct 0.19%-0.05%0.56%+0.69%2.31%+0.2%22 Wind 5.557.101.400123456789102016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1(%)(%)(%)129 194 268 252 292 417 151 50 104 138 160 172 216 116 01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()36%29%36%29%28%35%34%39%37%34%30%00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.452012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022H1%-0.0100.010.020.030.040.050.062012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023 02 17 P.15 5000-7000/30000/3000-4000/23 11%2021 2021 1990 11%2021 1990 5%4%214 5%210 24 2021 1990 11%,1005,51%,122,6%,228,11%,214,11%,210,11%,62,3%,80,4%,69,3%2023 02 17 P.16 25 2021()73.6 3.7%119.9 6.0%6.5 0.3%10.6 0.5%2.6 0.1%0.8 0.0%35.4 1.8%25.5 1.3%1.1 0.1%91 4.6%81 4.1%26 1.3%4.5 0.2%96-99.3%24 1.2%1.5 0.1%122 6.1%210 10.6%1005 50.5%149 7.5%1990 100.0%2.1 2.1.1 2019 2020 0.8%1.9 2021 2.0 2.7%2025 2.1 CAGR 1.7%2023 02 17 P.17 26 2021 2021 117.7 2010 10 2021 27.3 102%27 2021 2021 2.1.2 14,460 13,897 16,661 17,887 18,911 18,761 19,268 19,500 19,793 20,188 20,592-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05000100001500020000250002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY105963444279002591134625333032318916543190012654832182199540%50%100%150%200%250%300%05000100001500020000250003000035000400001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 02 17 P.18 28 IPE Wind 6000 30 2024 2.2 79.8/65 1 2021 3.79 11.1 65.86%2 65 2024 131 3 5 10%12/34.3/010020030040050060070016/01 17/01 18/01 19/01 20/01 21/01 22/01:IPE/:IPE/2023 02 17 P.19 29 21 34.3 12 79.8/65/4.31%3.27%3.1 8%13%13%8%30 8%31 13%2021 2021 336 351 155%165%2022 636 687 89%96%27.6%,42%,30%,12%,8%,3%,5%,39%,20%,13%,5%,15%,2%,6%2023 02 17 P.20 32 2022 636 687 Wind 2021 126.6%2021 324GWh 126.6%2022 600GWh 2021 68%/22%/10%CAGR 43%2025 1450GWh 43%ETC AGV 33 2021 324GWh 126.6%34 2021 68%GGII GGII 2025 2073GWh EVTank 2021 562.4GWh 91.0%371.0GWh 134.7%66.3GWh 132.6%125.1GWh 16.1%2025 2025 2073GWh 2020-2025 CAGR 38.6%1GWh 600 2025 124.4 55 68 117 104 132 336 636 50 77 125 121 132 351 687 01002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 81102117143324600900120014500%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%020040060080010001200140016002017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E GWh YoY68%22%10%2023 02 17 P.21 35 2025 2073GWh 36 EVTank EVTank 3.2 3.2.1 75%2021 2021 93 38 66 28 74%1 3C 2025 118 5 32%95 5+36%2 5G PCB 2025 68 5+5%44 5+4%37 2020-2025 CAGR+32%38 2020-2025 CAGR+36%GGII GGII 75%C C F A 2 02 1 3 1.6 7 5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%050010001500200025002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 41.1%54.0%16.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2021-2025 38628410211855596164680204060801001201401601802002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E+5%+32%2848678295 38383942440204060801001201401602021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E+4%+36%2023 02 17 P.22 6 m 8 m 4.5 m 4.5 m 6 m 2025 6 m 88.5%39 2021 75%40 2025 6 m 88.5%CCFA 3.2.2 2016-2021 29.2 64.0 17%2021 2019-2020 8 m 41 CCFA C C F A 2 0 21 1 1 5 00 0 2 C R 4 5 6%CR4 40%6 m 4.5 2021 4.5 m,75%,15%,6%/,4%3.1%5.7%9.1%12.3%17.5%22.1%34.6%58.6%72.7%74.1%67.0%66.4%62.3%35.8%18.2%13.6%15.5%11.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E8m 6m 4.5 m32.937.746.453.460.571.829.233.739.543.148.964.076%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2023 02 17 P.23 42 2021 43 2021 CCFA 3.2.3 2021 98%99%24.64%30.03%2023 44 2021 98%99%2021 2020 28086 27775 99%30.03%24.24%35633 35074 98%24.64%20.33%9 22 3 7 41 4 2022 2025 15 2025 132.2 CAGR 28%3.3 2022 9 15 15 1.25/2021 12 16,23%,13%,11%,9%,7%,6%,6%,4%,4%,4%,2%,11%,14%,11%,9%,6%,5%,5%,5%,4%,41%2023 02 17 P.24 18 12 2022 2.5/2023 5/15 6 m 4.5 m 7-20 m 8 m 8 228.8Wh/Kg 850/GWh 6 m 4.5 m 8 m 32%53%5%9%45/GWh Wh/Kg 8 850 228.8 6 580-32%240.2 5%4.5 400-53%249.6 9%46 6 m 47 6 m 4.5 m 8 m Wind 2012 8 0.35/kwh 39.20%36.49%26.25%23.48%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2018 2019 2020 2021 1-6 6um 7-8um 8um5.70 3.60 2.95 012345678921/06 21/09 21/12 22/03 22/06 22/09 22/124.5um/6um/8um/2023 02 17 P.25 C9 20 8 20 30 30 4.1 2022-2024 2021 1 2021 2.45%2 2022 1 2022 79.8 2025 62.5 139.8 2021-2024E 61.7 68.3 83.5 96.8 5700/2020 2021-2024E 5600/5800/5800/6000 4.5%4.9%5.0%5.4%2 2022 36.5 2025 17 56 2021-2024E 26.8 28.8 31.8 33.6 2021-2024E 4300/9.1%8.4%7.6%6.8%3)15 12 3 6 m 4.5 m 2021 12 2022 6 2022 9 1.25/23Q3 5 2025 15 2022-2024E 0.6 3.75 8 6 3.85/2021 2022-2024E 4.0/3.0/2.8 23%20%18%2023 02 17 P.26 48 2021A-2024 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 79.80 87.60 107.07 120.95 61.74 68.32 83.51 96.76/5591.58 5800.00 5800.00 6000.00 386.20 432.64 528.81 614.61 368.91 411.60 502.51 581.56%4.48%4.86%4.97%5.38%36.50 41.20 45.45 48.00 26.83 28.84 31.82 33.60/4321.05 4300.00 4300.00 4300.00 70.70 81.62 96.40 108.53 64.25 74.75 89.12 101.18%9.12%8.41%7.55%6.77%-1.25 5.00 10.00-0.60 3.75 8.00/-4.00 3.00 2.80-5.85 32.82 68.42-4.51 26.26 56.10%-23.00%20.00%18.00%0.19%0.20%0.20%0.20%1.19%1.20%1.20%1.20%0.49%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.56%0.60%0.60%0.60%2.45%2.50%2.50%2.50%22%22%22%22%0.24 0.25 0.32 0.45 11.07 12.05 16.73 25.06 Wind 4.2 2023 02 17 P.27 2022-2024 12.05 16.73 25.06 PE 20.2 14.6 9.7 PB 2.1 1.9 1.6 1 30 17.4%2025 30%2 2021 1.25/2025 15/49 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 601137.SH 18.43 0.39 0.74 1.11 1.37 60.10 24.74 16.61 13.43 688388.SH 51.04 2.35 2.56 4.24 6.02 53.46 19.98 12.03 8.49 600110.SH 8.78 0.29 0.37 0.58 0.77 55.02 23.70 15.18 11.36 56.19 22.81 14.61 11.09 002203.SZ 12.30 0.56 0.61 0.84 1.26 22.0 20.2 14.6 9.7 Wind wind 2023 2 14 2022 2023 02 17 P.28“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 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