深度报告-20230221-浙商证券-赣锋锂业-002460.SZ-赣锋锂业深度报告_锂行业龙头_全产业链布局_进入锂资源收获期_28页_2mb.pdf

2023 02 21 锂 行 业龙 头，全 产 业链 布 局，进 入锂 资 源收 获 期 赣 锋锂业深度报告:()-37%-27%-18%-9%0%10%22/0222/0322/0422/0522/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/02 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 11,162 40,515 49,683 60,480 102.1%263.0%22.6%21.7%5,228 20,057 19,042 24,987 304.4%283.6%-5.1%31.2%2.59 9.94 9.44 12.39 28.34 7.39 7.78 5.93 1.5 2.9.3.15.4.23 5.26 .公 司锂生 产基地.1 1 2011 9.9%Raleigh Lake Avalonia Forgan Lake/Georgia Lake Wolf Ridge2014 Mariana-80%2014 12.6 BLL 4%BLL Avalonia 100%Avalonia 55%2015 2500 RIM 25%Mount Marion 2015 1.3 100%2016 RIM 43.1%2017 1996.95 1.3 Pilbara 4.3%Pilgangoora 2017 4900 17.5%19.9%MineraExarCauchari-Olaroz 50%2018 6030 SQM Minera Exar 50%Minera Exar 470 Minera Exar Minera Exar 37.5%MineraExar Cauchari-Olaroz 100%Cauchari-Olaroz 2019 1440 756 Bacanora 29.99%Sonora 22.5%2020 1630 MineraExar 1%Cauchari Olaroz 2021 Bacanora Sonora 2021 1.3 SPV 50%Goulamina 2021 14.70 100%49%2022 10.85 100%62%2022 Bacanora Bacanora Sonora 100%2022 Lithea 100%PPG 100%2022 8.05 17.67%17.7%2 3 2000 301988 1996 1997 1 2002 2007 12 2010 12 2006 25 16 2002 8 EMBA 1991 2006 2010 12 2005 20 17 1996 2005 6 2007 12 2004 10 18 2004 4 2007 12 2008 10 2008 10 2011 8 2006 20 16 2006 1 2014 4 2008 32 14 2008 2 2008 14 2008 2019 3 2002 17 20 2002 1 2014 6 2020 8 2005 17 2005 2019 3 4 5/)/2022 年9 月 110 289.1 84.9 4 2022-2024 80 180 280 3802021 年6 月 403 1574 96.28 4 2020 2021-2024 380%520%620%730%2017 年12 月 339 1586 45.71 4 2016 2017-2020 150%330%460%570%3.5 5 7 9 2012 年6 月 115 280 13.11 12 4 25%2011 2012-2015 15%32%52%75%18%40%65%95%2.2.1 6 7 8 9 芃 2.1.1 65%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0002015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A,55%,26%,14%,5%2O 0.4%Li2O 1.5%Li2O 92057022015075229.5 627001002003004005006007008009001,000 65%10 2.1.2 11 2.2 12 1890 1956 1990 1991 2v 1.2v 1.2v 3.3-3.7V 40Wh/Kg 50Wh/Kg 60-80Wh/Kg 150Wh/Kg 300 1000 500 1000 4-5%20-30%30-35%5%13 14 2.2.1 15 30%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000 16 17 18 2.2.2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-10%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-10%19 20 21 89.7%5.9%3.2%0.9%0.2%0.1%0.4 1.1 1.7 3.3 5.5 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%01234562017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GW YoY%2 6 8 11 18 21 29 66 98 132 177 244 914 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%01002003004005006007008009001,0002014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2030E GWh YoY%3.3.1 22 23(LCE)Pilgangoora 5.80%693 1.19%58 6%2023 Q4 64-68 6%Goulamina 50%388 1.45%50.6 6%18 83.1 6%Mount Marion 50%242 1.2%60 100%10 1.03%Avalonia 55%/24 25 26(LCE)Cauchari-Olaroz 46.67%2458581mg/L 4 LCE 2 LCEPPG 100%1100/3 5 Mariana 100%812306mg/L 2 49%165210mg/L 1 100%/90%/17.6723%/(LCE)Sonora 100%882/2(LCE)62%149 0.2%/27 3.2 25 30 LCE LCE(+)1 50%241.6 5.3 5.8 8.3 10.62 5.8%693.3 4.1 6.5 7.9 8.53 50%388.0 0 0 0 0.754 55%0 0 0 05 100%10 0 0 0 06 46.67%2458 0 0 2.5 47 100%812.1 0 0 0.4 28 100%0 0 0 09 49%165 0.4 0.6 1 110 17.6723%0 0 0 011 90%0 0 0 012 100%882 0 0 0 213 62%149 0 0 0 09.7 12.8 20.0 28.93.1 3.6 6.6 12.5 Cauchari-Olaroz Mariana 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E Mount Marion Pilgangoora Goulamina Avalonia Sonora 28 公 司锂生 产基地 29 2025 30 LCE 30 产品大类 产品名称 特点 用途碳酸锂无色单斜品系结品体或白色粉末广泛用于锂的冶炼、特种玻璃、陶瓷、釉、电子、锂离子电池正极材料及电解质材料的基础原料等行业电池级单水氢氧化锂主要用于电动汽车、电动自行车、电动工具、基站储能电源等高能动力锂离子电池的正极材料工业级单水氢氧化锂制备锂盐及锂基润滑脂，还可作为碱性蓄电池的电解液、溴化锂制冷机吸收液以及玻璃、陶瓷添加剂使用。无水氢氧化锂主要用于制备高镍三元正极材料，还可用作二氧化碳吸收剂、分析试剂、照相显影剂等氟化锂白色粉末或立方晶体，难溶于水主要用来制备锂离子电池电解质锂盐六氟磷酸锂，可应用于陶瓷工业、分光仪、焊条、又射线单色仪的棱镜制造等无水氯化锂无机化合物，为白色晶体用于电解制备金属锂、铝的焊剂和钎剂及非冷冻型空调机中的吸湿（脱湿)剂金属锂 银白色的金属元素用于原子能、航空航天、合金材料、锂电池、受控核聚变反应堆、合成橡胶及制药等行业，是下一代高能锂二次电池首选负极材料锂箔纯金属锂中加入一定比例的铝金属用于高能锂一次电池和二次电池负极材料，亦是锂离子固态电池、半固态电池的核心材料之一，制备的金属锂电池体积小、容量大、无记忆效应碳酸铯常温常压下为白色固体,易溶于水，呈强碱性用于有机物合成催化，提升产率硝酸銣白色固体,受热可分解产生亚硝酸钓和氧气。主要用于磁流体发电和制取其它钓盐原料，在有机合成中用作催化剂;鳌合剂，在特种陶瓷、航空航天、军工等领域有重要作用无机化合物，白色结晶粉末，呈强碱性锂金属及合金銣铯盐锂化合物 81,000/12,000/1000/5,000/1,500/20,000/6,000/1,500/650/3.3 31 70GWh 32 3C 3,000/PACK 3GWh/4GWh/TWS40/PACK 0.3GWh/PACK 85/TWS 3C 1.8 10GWh 5GWh 10GWh 5GWh 6GWh()6GWh 20 pack 2.5 TWS 20GWh 10GWh 20GWh 24GWh 24GWh BMS 10GWh PACK 10GWh 10GWh 33 70,000 100,000 90%95%4.34 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 81,000 106,000 126,000 151,000 60,000 62,000 80,000 115,000/8.8 45.0 35.2 26.4 45,400 47,500 70,900 70,900 30,000 30,000 40,000 75,000/10.0 48.0 40.0 30.0 35 36 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 8,323 35,562 42,934 51,903 4,348 14,689 24,968 23,607 3,976 20,873 17,966 28,297%48%59%42%55%2,022 4,054 5,762 7,490 1,780 3,446 4,897 6,367 242 608 864 1,124%12%15%15%15%817 898 988 1,087 591 674 790 869 226 225 198 217%28%25%20%20%11,162 40,515 49,683 60,480 6,719 18,809 30,655 30,843 4,444 21,706 19,028 29,637%40%54%38%49%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E002466.SZ 82.98 20.8 217.1 228.7 239.7 1.4 13.2 13.9 14.6 58.9 6.3 6.0 5.7002240.SZ 38.00 8.5 60.1 65.3 76.1 1.1 6.6 7.2 8.3 35.2 5.8 5.3 4.6000792.SZ 25.22 44.8 163.0 169.1 182.2 0.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 29.7 8.4 8.1 7.5002756.SZ 94.43 8.9 65.3 76.8 81.1 2.2 15.7 18.5 19.6 42.5 6.0 5.1 4.8002738.SZ 76.25 5.6 34.0 53.4 80.4 1.8 7.4 11.6 17.4 43.0 10.3 6.6 4.4300390.SZ 57.68 9.1 52.8 63.3 81.1 1.6 8.2 9.9 12.7 36.3 7.0 5.8 4.6 16.3 98.7 109.4 123.4 1.5 9.0 10.7 12.7 40.9 7.3 6.2 5.3002460.SZ 73.45 52.3 200.6 190.4 249.9 2.6 9.9 9.4 12.4 28.3 7.4 7.8 5.9 WindP/EEPS/Wind 37 010020030040050060070080018-0218-0418-0618-0818-1018-1219-0219-0419-0619-0819-1019-1220-0220-0420-0620-0820-1020-1221-0221-0421-0621-0821-1021-1222-0222-0422-0622-0822-1022-12收盘价 76.024x 58.983x 41.943x 24.902x 7.862x 5.Table_ThreeForcast 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 14,627 43,516 65,827 89,325 11,162 40,515 49,683 60,480 6,332 22,203 34,672 56,607 6,719 18,809 30,655 30,843 281 127 165 191 88 226 293 391 2,499 8,208 10,894 12,963 62 101 174 232 30 178 216 231 470 555 869 1,210 218 1,343 2,342 1,852 339 1,215 1,490 1,814 3,283 9,842 15,552 15,619 182 305 265 300 1,983 1,615 1,986 1,862(29)25(25)26 24,430 24,067 28,935 33,834 2,229(426)0 0 0 0 0 0 93 4,104 5,103 2,253 4,087 3,134 2,953 3,392 65 68 73 69 3,029 4,760 6,485 8,239 5,719 23,024 21,135 27,986 5,090 6,667 8,762 10,489 55 55 55 55 5,774 5,889 6,432 6,681 5,774 23,079 21,190 28,041 6,450 3,616 4,302 5,033 357 2,300 1,463 2,155 39,057 67,582 94,762 123,159 5,417 20,778 19,727 25,886 8,209 11,145 17,411 19,257 188 722 685 899 1,970 1,577 1,726 1,758 5,228 20,057 19,042 24,987 2,957 6,445 11,393 11,869 6,368 23,625 21,806 28,814 0 0 0 0 2.59 9.94 9.44 12.39 3,282 3,123 4,292 5,631 4,681 8,913 10,100 10,764 3,639 7,239 8,239 9,239 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,042 1,674 1,861 1,525 12,890 20,058 27,511 30,022 102.07%262.96%22.63%21.73%4,273 4,995 5,680 6,579 307.60%302.59%-8.20%32.41%21,894 42,530 61,571 86,558 304.44%283.61%-5.06%31.22%39,057 67,582 94,762 123,159 39.81%53.58%38.30%49.00%48.53%51.29%39.71%42.80%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 26.42%54.43%33.18%31.16%2,620 9,942 11,068 24,037 19.29%39.89%27.31%26.36%5,417 20,778 19,727 25,886 372 277 400 532 33.00%29.68%29.03%24.38%182 305 265 300 49.34%47.72%38.86%39.11%(93)(4,104)(5,103)(2,253)1.78 3.90 3.78 4.64 3,562(4,028)2,175 332 1.38 3.02 2.89 3.83(6,819)(3,286)(6,396)(759)(6,176)1,486 478(2,488)0.37 0.76 0.61 0.56(2,791)(2,108)(2,653)(2,519)5.79 7.26 4.97 4.89(2,451)953 182(439)4.76 6.00 4.91 3.99(934)2,641 2,949 470()7,131 4,444 923 385 2.59 9.94 9.44 12.39 338(392)149 32 1.30 4.93 5.49 11.92 1,981 3,600 1,000 1,000 15.23 21.09 30.53 42.91 4,812 1,236(226)(646)3,575 15,871 12,469 21,935 28.34 7.39 7.78 5.93 4.82 3.48 2.41 1.71 31.10 5.97 5.98 3.83