深度报告-20230128-华创证券-新巨丰-301296.SZ-深度研究报告_厚积薄发_引领无菌包装国产替代_27页_2mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 28 301296 21.8 16.34 2007 10 50 1 70%+2+60%+1+2007 2 2016 2016-20 70%53%2020 CR4=94%+SIG 70%+1 8%-10%2 79%-84%&14%3 21-22 4 2021 87 82.6%22 180 23 280 22-24 1.69/2.16/2.78 22-24 PE 41/32/25X DCF 21.8 23 24 PE 42 32X ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()1,242 1,623 2,114 2,761(%)22.4%30.7%30.3%30.6%()157 169 216 278(%)-7.0%7.4%28.0%28.5%()0.44 0.40 0.51 0.66()37 41 32 25()5 5 4 4 2023 1 19 S0360521050002()42,000.00()5,915.34()68.63()9.67(%)22.25()5.53 12/19.47/14.11(12)-28%-17%-7%3%22/09 22/09 22/10 22/11 22/12 23/012022-09-022023-01-19 300 301296 2009 1210+10%+1 80%2 3 21-22“”22-24 1.69/2.16/2.78 22-24 PE 41/32/25X DCF 21.8 23 24 PE 42 32X 301296 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.8.9.9.12.14&.16+.16.17.19.20.21.23 301296 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3 2021.7 4 2021.7 5.7 6 2014-21 CAGR=19.8%.8 7 2017-2021.8 8 2017-21.8 9 2017 22Q1-Q3/.8 10 2017 22Q1-Q3.9 11 2014-21 CAGR=19.9%.9 12.9 13 2021.10 14 2021.10 15 2020.10 16.10 17.10 18 180.11 19.11 20.12 21.13 22.13 23 2017-2020.13 24 2017-2020.13 25.13 26 2016-2021.14 27 2020.14 28.14 29.15 30.15 31.15 32.16 33 8%10%.16 301296 2009 1210 5 34.16 35.16 36.17 37.17 38.17 39.18 40.18 41 14%79%+.18 42.19 43.19 44.19 45.19 46.20 47.20 48.20 49.21 50.21 51 100%+.21 52 2022 71.4%.21 53 100.21 54.22 301296 2009 1210 6 2007 10 50 1 2 301296 2009 1210 7 2021 96.9%21 CR5 90%70%3 2021 4 2021 24.42%4.08%8.72%5 2022 9 30 液态奶无菌包装96.9%非碳酸软饮料无菌包装2.6%其他业务0.6%伊利70%新希望乳业及其子公司12%辉山乳业4%欧亚乳业2%王老吉2%其他10%301296 2009 1210 8 2014-2021 3.5 12.4 CAGR=19.8%18 19 20 2021 22Q1-Q3 17-20 45.8%59.6%21 6 2014-21 CAGR=19.8%7 2017-2021 22 1 2 3 22 8 2017-21 9 2017 22Q1-Q3/0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%024681012142014 2016 2018 2020 22Q1-Q3 YoY45.8%48.7%56.3%59.6%51.2%52.2%43.1%36.3%32.4%38.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3 301296 2009 1210 9 10 2017 22Q1-Q3 11 2014-21 CAGR=19.9%PE 12 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82014 2016 2018 2020 22Q1-Q3 YoY 301296 2009 1210 10 13 2021 14 2021 Tetral Laval 50%30 15 2020 16 Euromonitor 17 UHT 135-150 6-9 72 85 7-15 原纸41%铝箔18%聚乙烯32%其他9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%河北13%内蒙古12%山东8%河南7%宁夏6%黑龙江5%其他49%76.2%75.1%74.0%73.6%71.1%69.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 301296 2009 1210 11 18 180 7 21 30 45-60 180 SIG 19 SIG 125ml 200ml 250ml 500ml 1000ml 301296 2009 1210 12 1963 1997 20 20%30%22%61%11%2-3 7-8 45-60 180 2020 2022 1187 2016-2022 CAGR=5.3%2020 21.1 13.6 7.51/36.2/67.3/91.4 301296 2009 1210 13 21 22 Euromonitor 3 23 2017-2020 24 2017-2020 25 2018 2019 2020 84.4%82.0%83.5%60.0%61.5%61.2%73.3%-85.1%85.3%-88.2%86.8%83.7%76.0%76.2%73.4%96.4%96.8%97.3%91.3%91.8%89.2%74.4%73.1%70.8%2.4%3.7%5.4%6.5%7.0%6.8%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%02004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY0102030405060708090100 2020 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017 2018 2019 2020 YoY32.2%33.5%34.9%36.1%26.7%26.6%26.7%27.5%41.1%39.9%38.4%36.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 301296 2009 1210 14 2021 1100 5 CAGR 8%CR4 90%2020/SIG/61.1%/11.3%/12.0%/9.6%/6.1%24 26 2016-2021 27 2020 IPSOS 28 SIG 2020 52.63%10.98%12.34%6.99%2021 111.5+3.2%20.5+13.9%34.6+14%12.4+22.4%3 19-21 73.1%70.8%70.3%20%80%90%+2004 2007 2016 11 2016-0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02004006008001,0001,2002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY利乐61%SIG11%纷美包装12%新巨丰10%其他6%301296 2009 1210 15 2020 29 2007 2016 6 6.68 2019 2021 12 1.25 30 31 CR4 94%70%+0204060801001202009 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 70.0%53.5%60.0%50.6%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2016 2020 301296 2009 1210 16 32&+PE 8%10%33 8%10%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 9%-10%8%-9%9%-10%8%-9%8%-9%8%-9%34 35 8.9%9.2%9.6%10.4%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%2018 2019 2020 20210.140.150.160.170.180.190.200.212019 2020 2021 301296 2009 1210 17+30 30 48 36 2005 8 2000 4000 2009 2010 37 38 96.4%96.6%96.8%97.0%97.2%97.4%97.6%97.8%98.0%01020304050607080901002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 85%86%90%92%91%92%89%90%64%60%64%76%74%73%71%70%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060702014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY 301296 2009 1210 18 1 8%-10%2 2017 10 39 2015 8 9625 20%2016 10 18%2020 3 13.2%4.80%2021 3 2020 17%22%57%62%2020 79%-84%14%40 2018 2019 2020 17%-22%17%-22%17%-22%49%-54%51%-56%57%-62%SIG 18%-23%16%-21%14%-19%6%-11%6%-11%2%-7%41 14%79%+2020 81.5%10.5%8.5%18.5%81.5%83.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%301296 2009 1210 19 2017 2010 2020 2019-2021 CAGR 29.8%19-21+12%2020 2019-2021 42 43 44 2018 2019 2020 15%-20%23%-28%38%-43%25%-30%22%-27%15%-20%SIG 5%-10%5%-10%1%-6%44%-49%39%-44%37%-42%43%-48%44%-49%47%-52%3%-8%3%-8%2%-7%SIG 16%-21%16%-21%31%-36%28%-33%28%-33%10%-15%2021+37.5%22.3%2019 PT.Grafitecindo Ciptaprima 45 2019 2020 2021 125 136 147 6 11 11 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01020304050607080901002019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002503003504002019 2020 2021 301296 2009 1210 20 1385.3 3681.7 5062.9 YoY-165.8%37.5%18.5%46.4%22.3%74%2021 64%46 47 48 2019 2020 78%-83%17%-22%79%-84%16%-21%69%-74%24%-29%74%-79%15%-20%91%-96%4%-9%95%-100%0%-5%28%-33%14%-19%42%-47%18%-23%61%-66%8%-13%62%-67%5%-10%2021+46.3%+65.9%38.7%9.5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01002003004005006007002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY54.7%60.0%68.5%69.1%64.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 301296 2009 1210 21 49 50 100 1 50 13/18 2 50 25/24 2021 87 82.6%100%+22 180 23 280 51 100%+52 2022 71.4%53 100 50 7,000 7,000 18 2020-2022 50 20,000 20,000 24 2021-2023 2 7,000 7,000 24 2021-2023 15%8%4%19%6%4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2018 20195%46%66%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 202171.7 77.6 82.6 100.9 93.3 100.4 0204060801001202019 2020 2021%5890 90 901051800501001502002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 301296 2009 1210 22 20,000 20,000-54,000 54,000-1 22/23/24 29.2%/29.6%/30.2%2 3 22Q4 23 2022/2023/2024 16.2/21.1/27.6 YoY+30.7%/30.3%/30.6%21.9%/23.9%/23.7%1.69/2.16/2.78 DCF 21.8 23 24 PE 42 32X 54 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 935 1,014 1,242 1,623 2,114 2,761 YoY 8.7%8.5%22.4%30.7%30.3%30.6%30.9%34.8%27.3%21.9%23.9%23.7%63.2 69.5 86.7 112.0 145.1 188.9 YoY 9.9%24.8%29.2%29.6%30.2%/0.147 0.144 0.142 0.144 0.145 0.145 YoY-1.8%-1.8%-1.5%1.2%0.6%0.3%526 604 636 696 720 744 YoY 25.7%14.8%5.3%9.5%3.4%3.4%37.5%40.4%34.1%29.1%31.8%31.8%38.7 45.2 48.7 53.6 56.2 59.0/0.136 0.134 0.131 0.130 0.128 0.126 YoY-1.78%-2.17%-0.50%-1.50%-1.50%339 329 481 718 1,069 1,539 YoY-8.5%-3.2%46.3%49.3%49.0%44.0%301296 2009 1210 23 21.7%25.8%19.4%15.4%18.9%19.9%20.9 20.2 31.0 46.6 69.8 101.3/0.162 0.163 0.155 0.154 0.153 0.152 YoY 2.3%0.4%-4.7%-0.5%-0.7%-0.7%64 71 118 200 314 462 YoY-1.5%10.8%65.9%69.2%56.8%47.0%19.0%24.5%19.5%15.5%19.0%20.0%3.6 4.1 7.0 11.9 19.1 28.6/0.180 0.176 0.169 0.168 0.165 0.161 YoY-2.2%-4.2%-0.5%-2.0%-2.0%301296 2009 1210 24 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 347 428 562 714 1,242 1,623 2,114 2,761 8 74 30 49 903 1,267 1,609 2,106 351 375 509 669 7 9 14 18 9 12 15 21 59 73 95 124 186 278 344 441 66 76 99 130 0 0 0 0 8 11 14 19 227 277 310 352-1-11-2-3 1,128 1,444 1,770 2,246 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11 0 0 486 508 572 648 0 7 0 0 46 90 89 63 5 5 5 5 38 34 30 27 211 226 290 372 30 29 30 29 0 0 0 0 600 661 721 767 0 0 0 0 1,728 2,105 2,491 3,013 211 226 290 372 4 4 4 4 54 57 74 94 260 354 439 584 157 169 216 278 155 198 262 334 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 157 169 216 278 5 7 9 12 NOPLAT 156 161 214 276 27 27 27 27 EPS()0.44 0.40 0.51 0.66 5 5 5 5 57 63 82 106 513 658 828 1,072 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 36 36 36 36 0 0 0 0 22.4%30.7%30.3%30.6%35 35 35 35 EBIT-6.6%3.0%33.2%28.6%71 71 71 71-7.0%7.4%28.0%28.5%584 729 899 1,143 1,144 1,376 1,592 1,870 27.3%21.9%23.9%23.7%0 0 0 0 12.7%10.4%10.2%10.1%1,144 1,376 1,592 1,870 ROE 13.7%12.3%13.6%14.9%1,728 2,105 2,491 3,013 ROIC 18.6%15.8%18.0%19.5%33.8%34.6%36.1%38.0%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 7.1%5.9%5.1%4.3%80 93 224 228 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 199 206 263 329 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7-53-92-66-98-136-92-94-185 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 137 136 150 217 83 81 75 77-67-64-28-35 50 50 51 51-21-109-108-100 63 66 70 67-29-110-109-100()0 0 0 0 0.44 0.40 0.51 0.66 8 1 1 0 0.19 0.22 0.53 0.54 14 97 18 24 2.72 3.28 3.79 4.45-4 0 0 0-2-2-2-2 P/E 37 41 32 25 0 0 0 0 P/B 5 5 4 4 20 99 20 26 EV/EBITDA 31 30 23 18 301296 2009 1210 25 2021 2022 2022 301296 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 301296 2009 1210 27(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522