20230218-国信证券-金属与金属材料行业专题报告_限电减产导致供需错配_铝行业迎来盈利上行周期_26页_1mb.pdf

|2023 2 18 010-S0980520040001 021-S0980522080003 27%2022-4.1%2023 2023 9.5 10%3%2022 4.1%3%-2017 70%2023 2 100 65 1.6%&50%2023 27%2022-4.1%2023 2023 9.5 10%3%2022 4.1%3%27%2021 4470 1380 31%2022 2021 2020 90%2022 60%-70%2022 15%30%-4.1%2012-2022 6.7%2023 2023 2023 9.5 10%3%2022 4.1%3%20304050607080901001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12020 2021 2022 2023-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Jan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17Sep-17Jan-18May-18Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22国内铝需求同比 地产竣工面积同比（右轴）6 iFinD-60-40-200204060:iFinD 1/4 15%2022 2022 968+97 1.7%50%8%15%1/4 38%2023 2022 PMI 2022 7 67.7 11 45.6 2023 48 5 2022 105 2022 51.50%57.40%49.30%2.40%3.30%4.90%8.50%8.30%7%15.30%14.20%16.00%Wood Mackenzie iFinD 20.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2022 2022 4261 2.3%97 2023 2023 3.1%2023 863 11%105 2.5%10%1.8%24 1.7%6%GDP 0.8%2020 3207 761 3968 2021 27%17%8%12%15%4%8%10%100%865 555 261 392 474 131 261 327 3266 898 4164+59+137+196 2022 757 605 261 451 474 131 287 327 3293 968 4261-13%9%0%15%0%0%10%0%1%8%2%-108+50+0+59+0+0+26+0 27+70+97 2023E 833 629 287 496 500 138 303 343 3529 863 4392 10%4%10%10%6%6%6%5%7%-11%3.1%+76+24+26+45+26+7+16+16+237-105+132 Wood Mackenzie Wind 14.1%9.9%9.0%4.8%8.7%4.9%-1.0%7.9%4.9%2.3%3.1%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%iFinD-2017 2017 70%2023 2 100 65 1.6%2019 60%24.8%2021 76%12.8 10.4-2021 17.4%2016 2019 49%15%20%97%8%68%100%88%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 t-CO2 12.810.4024681012141618 2017 2023 1 2017 5 459 235 492 420 iFinD 2017 5-2023 1 iFinD 23276725927811664086120271021449 158972100365279 614 301 193 791 43 90 119 76 115 404 7 8 247 52 61 631 0200400600800100012001400 2016 2017 5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 1-375-153-85-39-20-7-2-13413424749158260266-450-350-250-150-50 50 150 250 350 2017 2017 55%2017 70%70 30%80%20%7-9 45%2018-2020 1.35-1.40 66.9%65.7%63.8%56.9%14.4%49.7%16.1%1.0%3.7%1.5%6.9%73.4%36.4%78.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2021 iFinD 0501001502002503003504004503 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 iFinD 2020 2020 2 2021 5 160.5 183 2021 49%2022 7-8 100 2022 9 120 2023 2 100 65 1.6%-2021 108 11 37 4.5 22.5 1832022 81 18 18 7 124 iFinD 12689791826822628819134701430501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.002018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01:iFinD 2 176 110 32.3 33.8 223 2 42 300 5 22 100 65 50 500KA 370 2 2 3 1500 10 1.5 2022 2000/2021 m iFinD/iFinD/iFinD 5005105205305405505605705805906006101/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12018 2019 20202021 2022 202305,00010,00015,00020,0001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/12018 2019 20202021 2022 202302,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12018 2019 20202021 2022 2023 4500 100%95%4275 2022 7 4140 100 20 20 2008 05001000150020002500300035004000450002004006008001,0001,2001,400Asia ex.China AfricaAustralasia Central&South AmericaEurope North AmericaChina:20 CRU iFinD 3,200.003,400.003,600.003,800.004,000.004,200.004,400.004,600.00 95%95%开工率为4275万吨 4500 1 2 6 125 2 2 30 6 155 3 2 65 6 190 2023 3.1%2 LME 10 2022 60 1 2 3 4170 4124 4064 241 241 241 863 863 863 3529 3529 3529 4392 4392 4392 19-27-87 iFinD 0501001502002501/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0100200300400500600 LME iFinD 0.21/0.37/3900/2100/1750/50%2023 2021 5500K 1200/0.5/18500/2022 20%17000/0.21/0.37/3900/2100/1750/2023 1/16201 2115 15.16%17073 1243 0.24%17420 896 10.55%17813 503 15.50%17901 415 6.77%18243 73 0.17%18312 4 2.87%18353-37 2.96%18519-203 1.91%18617-301 2.22%18846-530 7.39%18862-546 18.85%18898-582 1.89%18952-636 1.16%19052-736 1.04%19369-1053 6.35%19407-1091 4.97%iFinD(4,000)(3,000)(2,000)(1,000)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,0002019/082019/102019/122020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/02 100-200/0.21/2021 0.47/0.32/0.41/02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800():(Q6000):():(5500):/iFinD-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030004000500060002020-01-012020-02-012020-03-012020-04-012020-05-012020-06-012020-07-012020-08-012020-09-012020-10-012020-11-012020-12-012021-01-012021-02-012021-03-012021-04-012021-05-012021-06-012021-07-012021-08-012021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-012022-03-012022-04-012022-05-012022-06-012022-07-012022-08-012022-09-012022-10-012022-11-012022-12-012023-01-012023-02-01+/iFinD 2 17 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 000933.SZ 17.22 1.44 3.06 3.33 3.52 12.0 5.6 5.2 4.9 38,762 601677.SH 18.70 2.71 1.74 2.07 2.55 6.9 10.7 9.0 7.3 18,135 002532.SZ 8.23 0.82 0.81 0.88 0.97 10.0 10.2 9.4 8.5 38,285 1378.HK 7.24 1.74 1.59 1.68 1.91 4.2 4.6 4.3 3.8 68,640 000807.SZ 13.35 0.96 1.43 1.62 1.67 13.9 9.3 8.2 8.0 46,297，Wind 170 80 90 2021 10 2000/200/0.2/0.41/5500K 850/3000/2022 700/535/180 100%120 100%45 100%240 100%210 82%60 35%855 80 100%90 43.4%170 2.5 100%5.5 60.9%8-3.7%11.8%-0.3%-6.5%6.8%83.2%39.5%-30.0%-10.0%10.0%30.0%50.0%70.0%90.0%0501001502002503003504002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-120.5%7.6%-35.1%463.3%-73.4%802.6%210.0%-200.0%0.0%200.0%400.0%600.0%800.0%1000.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-19.0%12.4%40.8%2.1%85.2%69.5%63.1%124.5%57.4%25.5%-30.0%-10.0%10.0%30.0%50.0%70.0%90.0%110.0%130.0%150.0%020406080100120-28.3%-20.8%-87.5%-88.6%1390.2%405.8%198.6%795.4%232.6%195.0%-500.0%0.0%500.0%1000.0%1500.0%-23813182328 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD 2022H1 2022H1 77.3 4.7%314.97 1.7%2022H1 21406/2021H1 22.9%2022 2075/2021H1 88.6%40 2022H1 36.9 2021H1 3.4 2022 2 2022 4 90 30%11.7 9.8%2022H1 57%32%2022H1 5936 2022H1 917 2021 339/8 2.5 5.5 16949 6 2023 14 2022 6 335.97 2021 55.56 2021 331282 61 54 2022 6 64.9%2021 73.1%2022H1 3.69 2017-2018 20 2019-2021 50 730.63626.36563.93551.06559.06653.73314.97114.2 111.26107.8188.69102.28140.6677.301002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 80.6 80.6 80.6 79.7 79.7 81.8 40.2 21.4 60.0 36.7 33.7 30.8 27.3 8.8 0204060801001201401602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 32%44%38%21%18%49%57%22%19%5%13%24%35%32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 147276 277154 1255789172092 20645301509283258315936010002000300040005000600070002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1/120 6 350MW 60 250 80 2019 2020 75 85 2022 2020 1-9 1785.56/2056.64/271/250 6 4N6 2022 22 30 80 100.00%170 100.00%250 120 100.00%120 6 100.00%20 100.00%-2.8%15.6%35.1%-15.7%4.7%16.8%-50.0%-30.0%-10.0%10.0%30.0%50.0%0501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 iFinD 050100150 iFinD 5.0%-24.1%40.5%27.4%100.4%1.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 iFinD 6.04 5.73 6.86 8.19 11.63 12.50 6.01 11.04 8.97 02468101214 iFinD-50%2023 2003 1+4”1000/72.9%71.5%68.1%71.5%76.8%22.9%21.1%18.6%16.0%18.7%0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021/634788963936113905001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 550652106610921569-50005001,0001,5002,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2003 65 2015 55 IPO 2022 70 2019 200 140 68 2019-2021 68 70 70 25 2024 25 2022 12.5 2018 12.5 2017 2 2019 2 2015 2021 10 12 /mm()1850,(1+3)2009 2400,(1+3)2011 2400,(1+3)2011 1850,(1+3)2012 1850,(1+3)2013 1(4500)+3(3300)2021 2000,(1+4)2003()2000,(1+4)2005 2350.(1+4)2011 2000,(1+4)2012 2400,(1+4)2012 1850,(1+4)2013 1(3300)+4(2850)2013 2400,(1+4)2013 2400,(1+4)2014 1850,(1+4)2014()2400,(1+4)2014 1(4500)+1(4100)+4(3150)2016 1(2540)+5(1730)2010 2014 2650,(1+5)()2018 2650,(1+5)()2011-2015 2016 2021 2021 2023 2023-/3802 4002 4202 4402 4602/2823 1,447 1,485 1,523 1,561 1,598 3023 1,608 1,646 1,684 1,722 1,760 3423 1,931 1,969 2,007 2,044 2,082 3623 2,092 2,130 2,168 2,206 2,244 3823 2,254 2,291 2,329 2,367 2,405 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032