深度报告-20221219-东方证券-派能科技-688063.SH-派能科技首次覆盖报告_户用储能龙头_乘势而起_25页_1mb (1).pdf

688063.SH|2009 2020 1GWh 1.15GWh 21 3GWh 22 6GWh 1 2 3 2025 58GWh IHS Markit 2020 4.5GWh 13%15%1 Tesla LG BYD 2 Sonnen 3 2022-2024 6.46 15.22 21.41 2023 27 410.94 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()1,120 2,063 5,920 12,221 17,467(%)36.6%84.1%187.0%106.4%42.9%()313 359 1,135 2,662 3,743(%)89.8%14.7%216.6%134.5%40.6%()274 316 1,001 2,356 3,316(%)90.5%15.2%216.4%135.5%40.7%1.77 2.04 6.46 15.22 21.41(%)43.5%30.0%32.4%33.5%32.3%(%)24.5%15.3%16.9%19.3%19.0%(%)17.3%11.1%29.2%46.6%42.0%171.9 149.2 47.2 20.0 14.2 17.3 15.9 12.2 7.6 4.9.2022 12 16 304.74 410.94 52/511.69/112.25/A 15,484/8,185 A 47,187/2022 12 19 1 1 3 12-11.82-1.54-17.22 47.43-10.72-4.67-17.77 68.89 300-1.1 3.13 0.55-21.46 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 021-63325888*6119 S0860520080004 021-63325888*3206 S0860520090002 BMO306 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 1.3.6 1.4.7 1.5.8 1.6.9 2.11 2.1 2025 58GWh.11 2.1.1 11 2.1.2 12 2.2.14 3.+.16 3.1.16 3.2.16 3.3.18.20.20.20.21 3 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 7 MWh/wh.7 8 2022.7 9 GWh.9 10.11 11 MWh.11 12 MWh.11 13/kWh.13 14 2022/kwh.13 15 2020.14 16.14 17 2020 TOP6 GWh.14 18.15 19%.16 20.16 21 1H2020.16 22.18 23.19 1.5 2.6 3.8 4.8 5.9 6 2021.9 7 2021.10 8 GWh.12 9.12 10.13 4 11.17 12.21 13 2023.22 14 2024.22 5 1 1.1 2009 2020 12 2012 kWh MWh 1 2009 2010 2012 2013 2016 2017 2020 1 2 1.2 6 3 BMS 2 1.3 2022 35.68 175.62%6.45 156.52%2022 68.50 60.57%2022 2.2GWh,128%4 5 7 wind wind 2021 4058.37 2022 9224.18 127.29%2022 Q2 Q3 6 7 MWh/wh wind 1.4 2022 27.91%晢牂 4.34%晢牂 1988 8 2022 0%50%100%150%200%250%0510152025303540 yoy0%50%100%150%200%250%-101234567 yoy010002000300040005000600070008000900010000-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.000.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01Q22 2Q22 3Q22出货量（MWh）单价（元/Wh）8 3 2019 10 1993 1 1997 11 1997 11 2017 9 2017 9 2019 10,2019 10 2004 4 2014 11 2014 11 2016 7 2016 8 2019 10,.2016 8 2020 1 2008 8 2009 10 2009 10 2016 7 2016 8,.wind 1.5 2017-2019 2020 1-6 1-2 2017 2017-2020 81.63%84.77%100.43%92.11%4 2 017 2018 2019 2020 1-6 MWh 224.00 310.00 476.00 348.80 MWh 96.18 280.15 474.30 298.21 42.94%90.37%99.64%85.49%MWh 1.15 29.27 93.67 36.79 9 ACBEL 2017-2020 78.93%71.98%70.37%72.02%5 2 017 2018 2019 2020 1-6 MWh 5.63 8.44 8.44 4.22 MWh 2.80 2.57 4.05 1.68 49.73%30.45%47.99%39.69%2020 2022 6-7GWh 2020 1GWh 2021 6 1.5GWh 4 0.5GWh 2021 3GWh 2022 6-7GWh 9 GWh 2017-2019 2020-2022E 1.6 2021 11 323 2021 10 31 1143 28.26%310.00 2.00%6 2021 2021 2021 2020 40%2021 2020 0123456782017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 10 2021 20%2022 2021 2022 2020 140%2021 2022 2020 60%2023 2021 2023 2020 340%2021 2023 2020 120%2022 2022 2021 2022 2020 140%2021 2022 2020 60%2023 2021 2023 2020 340%2021 2023 2020 120%7 2021 8.00 2.58%0.05%6.00 1.94%0.04%4.00 1.29%0.03%9.50 3.06%0.06%6.50 2.10%0.04%6.50 2.10%0.04%6.50 2.10%0.04%6.50 2.10%0.04%6.50 2.10%0.04%1.70 0.55%0.01%1.40 0.45%0.01%(312)196.90 63.52%1.27%50.00 16.13%0.32%310.00 100.00%2%11 2 2.1 2025 58GWh 2.1.1 10 2021 14.5 1.27GWh+49%woodmac 2021 925MWh+88%11 MWh 12 MWh The development of battery storage systems in Germany,Jan Figgener,2022 woodmac 2025 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001000120014002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021能量（MWh）同比010020030040050060070080090010002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 12 57.66GWh 2021-2025 91%2025 41.09GWh 112%2025 7.90GWh 71%8 GWh 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 4.36 14.18 24.96 39.97 57.66 0.93 2.10 3.62 5.63 7.90 2.05 9.55 17.32 27.81 41.09 0.34 0.85 1.76 2.81 4.12 1.04 1.69 2.27 3.72 4.55 BNEF Wood Mackenzie IEA 2.1.2 1 2019 CEP 2019/943 2019/944 2018 3 30%Ecobonus 50%110%2016 60%$5400 2018(Home Battery Scheme)4(1)(1)4000 10000 2020(Household and Business Battery Scheme HBBS)6000 7kWh 9 2019 CEP Clean Energy Package 2019/943 2019/944 2020 Ecobonus 50-65%110%2019 10kW 30kW 2018 30%2016 60%5400$2018(Home Battery Scheme)(1)(1)13 2026 4000 10000 2020(Household and Business Battery Scheme)6000 7kWh 2 2011 11.72/kWh 2016-2018 2021 13.66/kWh 2011 16.55%2022 0.2/kWh 0.31/kWh 0.3/kWh 13/kWh 14 2022/kwh EIA 3 CCS 10 10.51111.51212.51313.5142011201220132014201520162017201820192020202100.050.10.150.20.250.30.35欧盟丹麦爱尔兰意大利希腊西班牙法国葡萄牙塞浦路斯斯洛文尼亚挪威马耳他匈牙利波兰列支敦士登冰岛 14 2.2 2017-2019 0.86 3.21 5.95 60.6%/75.7%/72.8%70%2020 54.6%32.4%15 2020 16 IHS Markit 2020 4.5GWh 6 55%15%13%Sonnen 8%17 2020 TOP6 GWh IHS Market Sonnen 90%-95%2020 Segen ENERGY CNBM 2019 90%Sonnen 2018 Sonnen,54.6%,32.4%,2.2%,5.2%,3.6%,2.16%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%012345672017 2018 2019 00.511.522.5 15 Sonnen 18 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.002017 2018 2019 20H1 Sonnen 16 3.+3.1 2017 20%2018-2021 7%1940 82%Tesla LG BYD IEC CE VDE UL CEC JIS UN38.3 REACH RoHS WEEE 19%20 ARENA 3.2 Sonnen 2016 Sonnen Sonnen Sonnen 2018 Segen ENERGY 2019 Sonnen CNBM 2021 90%-95%21 1H2020 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 17 Sonnen Segen 11 Sonnen GmbH Krannich Solar GmbH&Co.KG Segen Ltd Midsummer Energy ENERGY SRL Zucchetti Centro Sistemi S.p.A.Solar Rocket Distribution Segen Solar Pty Segen CNBM International South Africa(PTY)Ltd 500 Sonnen Inc Sonnen GmbH 29%ENERGY SRL27%Segen23%Sonnen9%CNBM South Africa7%Zucchetti Centro Sistemi S.p.A.3%SOLAR+SOLUTIONS2%18 SOLAR+SOLUTIONS Sonepar SEIKI CO.,LTD BAYWA R.E.SOLAR SYSTEM S.R.O.BayWa r.e.UPS 2021 60%2021 2021 TUV 22 ENF Solar 3.3 BMS 19 2020 PCB 23 2019 0.79/wh 1.51/wh 36.72%0.96/wh 83%0.44/wh 0.35/wh 37%20 2022-2024 1)2022-2024 59.20 122.21 174.67 10.01 23.56 33.16 2)2022-2024 3.6 7.8 11.8GWh 58.92 121.93 174.40 2022 2022 2021 2022-2024 32.3%/33.5%/32.3%3)2022-2024 2.20%/1.54%/1.44%3.44%/2.67%/2.38%7.53%/6.26%/5.97%4)2022-2024 11.21%2020A 2021A 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 1,044.6 1,987.9 5,892.0 12,193.4 17,439.6 40.3%90.3%196.4%106.9%43.0%43.6%29.7%32.3%33.5%32.3%72.6 64.7 17.9 17.9 17.9 0.0%-11.0%-72.3%0.0%0.0%39.6%28.6%28.6%28.6%28.6%2.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 4.5%253.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%99.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%1,120.1 2,062.5 5,919.8 12,221.2 17,467.4 36.6%84.1%187.0%106.4%42.9%43.5%30.0%32.4%33.5%32.3%2022-2024 10.01 23.56 33.16 6.46 15.22 21.41 21 5 2023 27 2023 27 PE 410.94 12 公司 代码 最新价格(元)2022/12/16 EPS 市盈率 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 300274 98.00 1.07 2.05 3.76 5.15 91.96 47.77 26.03 19.03 605117 322.22 2.42 5.87 10.37 15.49 133.07 54.89 31.06 20.80 002594 270.51 1.05 5.35 9.80 14.24 258.61 50.52 27.60 18.99 300750 418.01 6.52 11.63 18.00 23.91 64.09 35.95 23.22 17.48 300014 91.20 1.42 1.67 3.32 4.79 64.08 54.60 27.50 19.02 258.61 54.89 31.06 20.80 64.08 35.95 23.22 17.48 122.36 48.75 27.08 19.07 96.37 50.97 27.04 19.01 数据来源：朝阳 永续，东方证 券研究 所 3 2020 50%2019-2021 71%/84%/81%2019-2021-178/2116/2852 22 13 2023 2023-20%-10%0%10%20%-20%2.34 3.13 3.93 4.72 5.52-10%10.19 11.97 13.74 15.52 17.30 0 18.05 20.80 23.56 26.32 29.08 10%25.90 29.64 33.38 37.12 40.86 20%33.75 38.48 43.20 47.92 52.64 14 2024 2024-20%-10%0%10%20%-20%2.98 3.98 4.98 5.98 6.97-10%14.26 16.66 19.07 21.47 23.88 0 25.53 29.34 33.16 36.97 40.79 10%36.80 42.02 47.25 52.47 57.69 20%48.07 54.70 61.34 67.96 74.56 23 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2,254 1,235 474 978 1,397 1,120 2,063 5,920 12,221 17,467 269 653 1,480 3,055 4,367 633 1,443 4,003 8,121 11,825 7 177 118 244 349 4 7 21 43 61 190 687 1,201 2,436 3,548 22 36 131 188 252 93 425 1,167 1,252 1,320 118 219 649 1,092 1,458 2,813 3,178 4,440 7,966 10,981 24(13)(76)59 72 0 0 0 0 0 13 32 65 65 65 222 488 1,665 4,452 6,143 0 1 0 0 0 82 154 860 780 984 0 8 0 0 0 21 24 23 22 21 7 13 9 9 9 76 422 415 406 397 313 359 1,135 2,662 3,743 401 1,088 2,963 5,660 7,545 0 0 0 0 0 3,214 4,266 7,403 13,625 18,526 1 3 9 9 9 56 130 915 2,391 1,828 312 356 1,127 2,654 3,734 346 829 2,202 4,467 6,504 37 40 126 298 419 73 179 255 380 490 274 316 1,001 2,356 3,316 475 1,139 3,371 7,237 8,822 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 274 316 1,001 2,356 3,316 0 0 0 0 0 1.77 2.04 6.46 15.22 21.41 6 157 157 157 157 6 157 157 157 157 480 1,296 3,529 7,395 8,979 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 155 155 155 155 155 36.6%84.1%187.0%106.4%42.9%2,202 2,207 2,207 2,207 2,207 89.8%14.7%216.6%134.5%40.6%377 608 1,513 3,869 7,185 90.5%15.2%216.4%135.5%40.7%0 0 0 0 0 2,734 2,970 3,874 6,231 9,546 43.5%30.0%32.4%33.5%32.3%3,214 4,266 7,403 13,625 18,526 24.5%15.3%16.9%19.3%19.0%ROE 17.3%11.1%29.2%46.6%42.0%ROIC 18.1%10.3%23.5%35.7%33.7%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 274 316 1,001 2,356 3,316 14.9%30.4%47.7%54.3%48.5%25 44 122 343 615 0.0%0.0%13.1%23.7%5.2%24(13)(76)59 72 5.93 2.79 1.32 1.10 1.24 0(8)0 0 0 5.50 2.17 0.95 0.76 0.83(16)(651)203(658)(472)(27)(19)11 26 24 5.3 5.1 6.8 6.7 5.9 281(330)1,261 2,127 3,554 3.5 3.2 4.2 4.4 3.9(107)(407)(1,997)(3,040)(2,500)0.6 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 0 0 0 0 0(39)(1,241)(799)0 0 1.77 2.04 6.46 15.22 21.41(146)(1,649)(2,796)(3,040)(2,500)1.81-2.13 8.14 13.74 22.95 0 55 10 0 0 17.65 19.18 25.02 40.24 61.65 2,015 5 0 0 0(9)(85)764 1,417(635)171.9 149.2 47.2 20.0 14.2 2,006(25)774 1,417(635)17.3 15.9 12.2 7.6 4.9(21)(30)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 127.3 118.2 39.0 15.0 10.4 2,120(2,035)(761)504 420 EV/EBIT 136.9 133.2 43.5 16.9 12.1 24 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer