深度报告-20230212-华创证券-萤石网络-688475.SH-深度研究报告_智能家居东风起_视觉龙头展宏图_38页_3mb (1).pdf

2009 1210 2023 02 12 688475 36.32 2013 2019-2021 CAGR 33.6%+1 27%2 AI 90%3 4 2020 62.2%22H1 84.8%22-24 3.3/4.9/6.3-25.9%/45.4%/29.7%PE 63/44/34 PS PS 5.1X 6.4X ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()4,238 4,447 5,306 6,687(%)37.7%4.9%19.3%26.0%()451 334 485 630(%)38.2%-25.9%45.4%29.7%()1.00 0.59 0.86 1.12()38 63 44 34()12.0 11.4 9.1 7.1 2023 2 9 S0360520100002 S0360522090002()56,250.00()8,377.35()214.88()32.00(%)56.15()3.63 12/38.37/24.61(12)-3%16%34%52%22/12 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/022022-12-282023-02-08 300 (688475)2009 1210 AI 22-24 3.3/4.9/6.3-25.9%/45.4%/29.7%PE 63/44/34 PS PS 5.1X 6.4X (688475)2009 1210 3.6.6.9+.14.14.18.21.21.25.27.31.33.34 (688475)2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 6 2018.10 7 2018.10 8.10 9.11 10.11 11.11 12.12 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.13 17.13 18.13 19 5.14 20 80 90.15 21 90%.15 22 MEMS.15 23.15 24 2017-2025.16 25.16 26 2020-2025.16 27 2020-2025.16 28.17 29.17 30.17 31 2018-2023.17 32 2020-2025.18 33 2020-2025.18 (688475)2009 1210 5 34 2019.18 35.18 36.19 37.20 38.20 39.21 40.21 41 2022 1-11 TOP10.21 42 2022 1-11 TOP20.21 43.22 44 2021Q1-2022Q1.22 45.23 46.24 47.24 48.24 49.25 50.25 51.26 52 AI.26 53.27 54.27 55 22H1.28 56.29 57.29 58.29 59.30 60.30 61.31 62.31 63.31 64.32 65.33 66.33 67.34 68.34 (688475)2009 1210 6 C B IoT 2013 2015 2022 12 2013-2014 C1 2014 APP 2015-2017 2015 2018-2020 1+4+N 2020 IoT 1 2600 2021-AI 2022 12 1 (688475)2009 1210 7 IoT 2 1 2021 1800 18%2 3+2021 2000 36.60 87.19%2022 6 1.82 1.34 1 4000 48%32%20%(688475)2009 1210 8 3 Wind 4 1993-2001 2001-2019 2015-2021 2021 6 30 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2015 2016-2017 2018-2020 2020 7 20 2002 2002-2004 2004-2016 2016-2021 2021 6 20 2009-2015 2016-2017 2018-2020 2021 2021 6 12 12 (688475)2009 1210 9 20 16 20 5 2021 42.4 37.6%4.5 38.3%2019 2021 33.6%22H1+4.24%-24.0%(688475)2009 1210 10 6 2018 7 2018 84%-88%11%-15%2021 36.6+38.3%5.4+29.5%2021 29.39 3.35 0.97 2.90 7 8 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()YOY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%00.511.522.533.544.552018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()YOY62.71%65.81%69.99%69.45%8.19%8.66%7.97%7.39%11.05%13.54%12.81%14.96%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 11 9 22H1 35.4%7.3%10%22H1 13.7%10 11 75%30%22H1 30.4%/33.0%15%30%22H1 59.5%6.9%/1.2%/2.1%-30%20%70%120%0102030402019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY YOY YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2019 2020 2021 2022H1-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 12 12 13 2021 29.7 81.2%6.9 18.8%22H1 14.5 3.1 2021 26.08%43.70%14 15 2021 4.90 11.57%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019年 2020年 2021 年 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 13 16 17 30%20%18 3 24.04 AI 3 8.01 EMC 3 3.91 EMC EMC 3 8.18 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01234562019年 2020年 2021年 2022H1 YOY(688475)2009 1210 14+IoT CTO 5 L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 SKU L2 19 5 90%90%80/90 (688475)2009 1210 15 20 80 90 21 90%2007-2020 MEMS 2.57 0.88 5G 5 2019 150 2023 20 22 MEMS 23 崑 5G 2017 2520 2022 5753 2025 8000 15.8%92%70%21-31,41.00%31-40,46.20%41-50,12.80%2.571.240.970.8800.511.522.532007 2012 2017 2020E MEMS/1715 1412101501008040200204060801001201401602019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E4G 5G (688475)2009 1210 16 24 2017-2025 25 CSHIA 2020 89 2025 149 10.9%2020 4040 15.1%2025 8175 26 2020-2025 27 2020-2025 2018-2021 115 130 4.17%2022 141 2021 12%2025 26%01000200030004000500060007000800090002017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E CAGR=15.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%(688475)2009 1210 17 28 29 2018 0%22 10 18.6%/36 2021 391.8 2023 751.8 30 31 2018-2023 36 2020 58 20.4%2025 147 2020 158 2025 359 17.8%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401602018 2019 2020 2021 2022e YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 0.00%5.80%11%14.90%18.60%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2018 2019 2020 2021 22M1-10 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e服务机器人市场规模及预测（单位：亿元）YOY(688475)2009 1210 18 32 2020-2025 33 2020-2025 Statista 2019 11.9%32.4%25%34 2019 Statista 35 0204060801001201401602020 2025e CAGR=20.4%0501001502002503003504002020 2025e CAGR=17.8%32.40%30.50%28.50%27.40%26.50%11.90%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%美国 挪威 瑞士 丹麦 韩国 中国2019 (688475)2009 1210 19 3+6+5 U+5+7+N DuerOS IoT 1+4+X AIOT 36 (688475)2009 1210 20 37 1.0 2.0-3.0 38 2021 (688475)2009 1210 21 39 40 2022 1-11 10%18 41 2022 1-11 TOP10 42 2022 1-11 TOP20 (688475)2009 1210 22+43 2020 2021 1279 1800 14.4%18%2021 26%2022Q1 27%11 618/11 618 44 2021Q1-2022Q1 IDC (688475)2009 1210 23 7 30 AI AI 2021 2.93 2.62 0.17 0.14 45 9%30%To C 2022 6 4333.45 170 00.511.522.532019 2020 2021(688475)2009 1210 24 46 To B SaaS PaaS 2022 6 3885.2 7875.8 1.18 21 2527.9 1.9 13%47 48 To B 22H1 24 1.2 0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022H1 14.6%15.8%13.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0500100015002000250030002019 2020 2021 2022H1 0510152025302019 2020 2021 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 25 49 X 2021 5799 50 2022/2021 2021 2020 1 10097.0 1 1 2 5089.2 2 2 3 3320.4 3 3 4 1362.9 4 5 5 1226 5 N/A 6 941.3 6 6 7 825.1 7 7 8 602.2 8 8 9 593.4 10 9 10 Aiphonea 473.4 11 11 A&S AI IoT AI (688475)2009 1210 26 51 AI AI AI 52 AI 3 83.0%85%95.0%90%95.9%82.5%88.9%85.56%50%86.0%77.0%(688475)2009 1210 27 53 C6C 3MP PRO 360 AP2C 3MP Ring Indoor Camera 399/299/319/$59.99/3MP 3MP 3MP 2MP WIFI+WIFI WIFI WIFI 4 2 2 1 Amazon 2022 54 24000 72.13%6500 81.33%9000 67.12%22000 21.90%9000 92.07%5000 83.88%ez-mesh 34000 22.34%22500 22.09%17500 21.48%800 10.74%B2C (688475)2009 1210 28 B2C 2021 82.3%17.7%55 22H1 (688475)2009 1210 29 56 2022H1 13.4%39.5%+15.9%23.5%52.9%2019 37.9%22H1 23.5%2018 1014 2022H1 505 57 58 2.3%8.7%19.4%15.9%37.9%33.0%26.4%23.5%9.1%17.0%12.4%13.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 10149656925050200400600800100012002018 2019 2021 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 30 0 1 2020 2021 13.14 31.0%2019 37.7%6.7pct 59 B2C 2021 0.48 1.19 0.27 17.7%60 2021 4 Pyronix Limited 2024 3 31 37.70%35.27%31.01%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%024681012142019 2020 2021 00.511.522.532018 2019 2020 2021H1(688475)2009 1210 31 2021 2.1 25.7%3 2021 6.1 74.3%2019 12.04%22H1 24.96%61 62 2021 18.9%63 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0123456789102019 2020 2021 2022H1 2.572.13.246.09012345672020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002019 2020 2021 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 32 19.95 76.58%22H1 84.84%21 3.19 12.23%0.50 1.91%2.42 9.28%2020 2020 C MTS B ATO 64 2020 2019 Arlo 2021 18.61%30.77%Arlo 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020年2021年2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 33 65 2020 2021 56.21%22H1 80.62%2025 5900 66 2023-2025 19.3%26.0%22.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019 2020 2021 Arlo 0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022H1 (688475)2009 1210 34 67 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 38.3%4.4%19.5%26.2%21.8%29.5%8.0%18.0%25.0%25.0%37.7%4.9%19.3%26.0%22.2%35.3%36.2%36.5%36.4%36.9%38.2%-25.9%45.4%29.7%30.8%Wind 13%PS PS 5.1X 6.4X 68 PE 2023E PS 2021/1/1-2023/2/8 603486.SH 25.6 7.3 688169.SH 21.9 9.9 601360.SH 52.0 6.7 1810.HK 23.0 1.4 688696.SH 22.5 6.5 29.0 6.4 688475.SH 43.7 5.1 Wind Wind 2022-2024 44.5/53.1/66.9 4.9%/19.3%/26.0%3.3/4.9/6.3-25.9%/45.4%/29.7%PE 63/44/34 PS PS 5.1X 6.4X (688475)2009 1210 35 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,232 2,036 1,399 849 4,238 4,447 5,306 6,687 4 49 26 33 2,743 2,839 3,368 4,255 757 806 981 1,243 15 20 22 26 22 25 27 34 455 553 644 778 1,021 724 1,010 1,302 136 169 181 228 0 0 0 0 490 604 667 821 38 52 73 84 6-4-4-5 3,074 3,692 3,516 3,545-5-5-5-5 19 20 24 30-13-13-13-13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 152 474 1,285 2,045-1-1-1-1 107 157 257 507 114 114 114 114 27 33 42 45 486 360 524 680 352 353 354 357 1 1 0 0 657 1,037 1,962 2,984 0 0 0 0 3,731 4,729 5,478 6,529 487 361 524 680 350 0 0 0 36 27 39 50 318 111 165 260 451 334 485 630 744 1,810 1,922 2,063 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 451 334 485 630 263 276 330 416 NOPLAT 457 331 482 625 71 71 71 71 EPS()1.00 0.59 0.86 1.12 32 32 32 32 293 326 370 469 2,071 2,626 2,890 3,311 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37.7%4.9%19.3%26.0%251 251 251 251 EBIT 41.1%-27.6%45.6%29.8%251 251 251 251 38.2%-25.9%45.4%29.7%2,322 2,877 3,141 3,562 1,409 1,852 2,337 2,967 35.3%36.2%36.5%36.4%0 0 0 0 10.6%7.5%9.2%9.4%1,409 1,852 2,337 2,967 ROE 32.0%18.0%20.8%21.2%3,731 4,729 5,478 6,529 ROIC 24.0%16.3%19.1%19.6%62.2%60.8%57.3%54.6%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 45.0%15.3%12.1%9.6%289 1,419 329 607 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 478 363 574 871 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7-428 297-286-292-134-84-142-264 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 86 860 166 236 58 63 61 60 287-16 17 56 109 162 200 169-383-411-1,015-1,261 106 111 93 98-226-410-1,013-1,259()0 0 0 0 1.00 0.59 0.86 1.12-157-1-2-2 0.51 2.52 0.58 1.08 314-204 49 104 2.50 3.29 4.15 5.27 382-350 0 0-1-1-1-1 P/E 38 63 44 34 0 3,121 0 0 P/B 12 11 9 7-67-2,974 50 105 EV/EBITDA 48 64 41 27 (688475)2009 1210 36 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 (688475)2009 1210 37 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 (688475)2009 1210 38(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522