20230119-银河期货-2023年锡基本面分析_27页_1mb.pdf

2023 Z00149131GALAXY FUTURES 2GALAXY FUTURES2023 ITA 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2022 2%2023;ITA1501701902102302502702903103303502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 3GALAXY FUTURES/地区 2023 年预计增量Auxico Resources Massangana 3600 巴西 2023 2700Alphamin Mpama South 7200 刚果（金）2023 12 600AVA Manono 1400 刚果（金）2023 350Kasbah Achmmach 4500 摩洛哥 2023 没有明确投产时间Syrymbet Syrymbet 6500 哈萨克斯坦 2023 没有明确投产时间Afri Tinming UIS 1200 纳米比亚 2022 9 2023 2026 9000/500Tungsten West Hemerdon 500 英国 2023 350Anglo Saxony Mining Tellerhauser 3300 德国 2024 Strategic Minerals Redmoor 400 英国 2024 Tinka Resources Ayswilca 2000 秘鲁 2024 Europena Metals Cinovec 1000 捷克 2024 Venture Minerals Mount Lindsay 3000 3000 澳大利亚 2024 Australian Tin Resources Ardlethan Tallings 1500 澳大利亚 2024 4GALAXY FUTURES 2018 1 Bisie 2020 12 4%2 Achmmach 2015 6000-7000 3 Manono Manono 28 OCP 1600/CAPEX/2023 4 60%Timah 5 UIS UIS 2022 2022 8 1200 67%2023()2026 2026 9000 6 Mpama SouthAlphamin Mpama South 2023 12 7200 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 E 2023 E 5GALAXY FUTURES576754.644.836.63436.933010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2022 2023 2022 8000 ITA 2020 3-8 2021-2022 2023 2023 1 12 San Rafael 18.619.920.72728.12614.8141215.2 15.614171814.719.717.3 1850.451.947.461.961580102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6GALAXY FUTURES;ITA1551601651701751801852018 2019 2020 2021 2022 F 2023 F 5 6 80%6 26%7 56%1-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0007GALAXY FUTURES 8GALAXY FUTURES2023 M2 PMI CPI PMI0.00001.00002.00003.00004.00005.00006.00007.0000-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.00-200,000-150,000-100,000-50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7 2022 9 2022 11-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2000-052001-052002-052003-052004-052005-052006-052007-052008-052009-052010-052011-052012-052013-052014-052015-052016-052017-052018-052019-052020-052021-052022-0530.0035.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.002010-072011-032011-112012-072013-032013-112014-072015-032015-112016-072017-032017-112018-072019-032019-112020-072021-032021-112022-07 240.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.0075.002000-012001-052002-092004-012005-052006-092008-012009-052010-092012-012013-052014-092016-012017-052018-092020-012021-052022-099GALAXY FUTURES 30.0040.0050.0060.0070.002010-072011-032011-112012-072013-032013-112014-072015-032015-112016-072017-032017-112018-072019-032019-112020-072021-032021-112022-07 PMI 0501001502002503003504001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 300.00350.00400.00450.00500.00550.00600.00650.00700.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 01002003004005006001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 0200040006000800010000120001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.003,500.004,000.004,500.0010GALAXY FUTURES BQ.1 0306090120150180020000400006000080000100000 0500001000001500002000002500002021-11-25 2022-01-25 2022-03-25 2022-05-25 2022-07-25 2022-09-25 2022-11-2511GALAXY FUTURES 0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022 2023 0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022 2023 0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022 2023 02004006008002020 2021 2022 2023 12GALAXY FUTURES 2022 11 12 11 1 0.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-110.50.550.60.650.70.750.250.30.350.40.452007-122008-072009-022009-092010-042010-112011-062012-012012-082013-032013-102014-052014-122015-072016-022016-092017-042017-112018-062019-012019-082020-032020-102021-052021-122022-07 13GALAXY FUTURES2023 5G 0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.0035,000.0040,000.0045,000.0050,000.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.00140,000.00160,000.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05000000100000001500000020000000250000003000000035000000400000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0500010000150002000025000300002019 2020 2021 2022 14GALAXY FUTURES 0.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00250,000.002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.00140,000.00160,000.00180,000.00200,000.002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.0035,000.0040,000.0045,000.0050,000.002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202215GALAXY FUTURES-1-0.500.511.52016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-11-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.002019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0016GALAXY FUTURES 2023 12 31 2023 2023 7.5%0500000100000015000002000000250000030000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 0500000100000015000002000000250000030000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 17GALAXY FUTURES 2022 8 2022 67%33%680 2023 900 10 27 2035 2035 10 55%2050 1-11 88.9 50%7.5%2022 4000 7500 20 02000004000006000008000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 0204060801001201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 18GALAXY FUTURES2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 77 125 121 136 350 688 900 1140 1560 0.09 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.42 0.83 1.08 1.37 1.87 45 77 100 192 300 405 570 800 940 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.23 0.36 0.49 0.68 0.96 1.13 122 201.7 221 328 650 1093 1470 1940 2500 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.39 0.78 1.31 1.76 2.33 3.00 0.10 0.02 0.13 0.39 0.53 0.45 0.56 0.67 19GALAXY FUTURES/GW 02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000002020 2021 2022 2023 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.000246810121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 051015202530351 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 202220GALAXY FUTURES GW 3.22.43.72.93.2 3.23.83.64.03.74.54.75.44.07.06.46.1 6.25.96.6 6.84.85.0 4.74.73.48.06.56.26.06.96.98.37.78.06.55.3 6.7 7.8 7.4 8.4 8.6 8.0 10.7 9.8 10.2 8.3 10.0 11.96 14.88 14.46 12.43 14.82 15.24 15.51 14.10 12.60 11.70 10.77 0246810121416181 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220246810121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 050010001500200025001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 0100020003000400050001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 21GALAXY FUTURESmw 2022 5 18 RepowerEU”55%”2030 40%45%(2021 22%)REPowerEU 2022 2/3 2027 2025 320GW 2021 2022-2025 38.8GW 2030 600GW 2022-2030 435GW,420GW SPE 2022 27 2022 41.4GW 2021 28.1GW 47%2022(30kW 15kW)2023 10 18 2020 2030 5840 41464 4000 1700 12000 02004006008001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 02468101 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 202222GALAXY FUTURES 2022 3 80 2022 6 6 24 2022 10 14 10414 24 2022 8 16 3690 2030 40%2022-2029 25%2033 05001000150020002500300035001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 0500100015002000250030001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 202223GALAXY FUTURES2020-2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 136.0 173.5 242.9 303.6 364.4 429.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 24GALAXY FUTURES2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 E 2023 E 182 167 168 181 171 180 203 199 172 200 204 208 385 366 340 381 375 388 177 167 175 184 178 183 218 201 188 206 205 206-10-3-23-9-8-125GALAXY FUTURES 30220000 APP 021-65789259 wangyingying_ 16 11 1101(100020)Floor 11,China Life Center,No.16 Chaoyangmenwai Street,Beijing,P.R.China(100020)501 28 28th Floor,No.501 DongDaMing Road,Sinar Mas Plaza,Hongkou District,Shanghai,China 400-886-7799