深度报告-20230224-国联证券-聚和材料-688503.SH-光伏银浆龙头迎N型时代加速成长_31页_1mb (1).pdf

1 Tabl e_First Table_First|Table_ReportType Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 688503 N 2015 2021 N 2022-2024 255/335/421GW 305/403/505GW N PERC 2022-2024 4789/6151/7443 221/264/323 CAGR 19.35%2015 5%2022 80%37%N TOPCon HJT TOPCon 120ohm/sq HJT N TOPCon HJT 2021 44.8%2022 315 305 PERC TOPCon HJT IBC MBB 2022 4 2021 1 3 5 6 2022-24 66.8/87.3/115.3 31.4%/30.6%/32.1%3.84/5.90/8.73 55.5%/53.9%/47.8%EPS 3.43/5.27/7.80/PE 40.9/26.6/18.0 2023 2024 CAGR 50.81%23 PEG 0.8 PE 40.65 214.23 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary|Table_Excel 1 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2,502.72 5,083.93 6,682.53 8,730.22 11,532.55%179.94%103.14%31.44%30.64%32.10%EBITDA 149.64 288.65 525.38 838.71 1,202.39 124.25 246.78 383.69 590.32 872.64%75.55%98.62%55.48%53.85%47.82%EPS/1.11 2.21 3.43 5.27 7.80 P/E 126.3 63.6 40.91 26.59 17.99 P/B 15.9 12.7 3.3 3.0 2.5 EV/EBITDA 107.2 58.8 28.4 18.3 13.3 iFinD 2023 2 23 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 2023 2 24 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Rati ng/140.27 214.23 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_M arketInfo/112/24 A 3,331 18.33%52.09/165.00/131.11 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_C hart Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Author S0590521100002 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Contacter Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Rel ateRepor t-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2022/02/22 2022/07/22 2022/12/22 300本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。2 N 1 N 2 N 2023-24 20/2022-24 1432/1996/2603 PERC TOPCon HJT 11%14%20%2022-24 66.8/87.3/115.3 31.4%/30.64%/32.1%3.84/5.90/8.73 55.5%/53.9%/47.8%EPS 3.43/5.27/7.80/PE 40.9/26.6/18.0 2023 2024 CAGR 50.81%23 PEG 0.8 PE 40.65 214.23 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 1.3.6 1.4.7 2.N.8 2.1.8 2.2.TOPCon Poly.13 2.3.HJT.14 2.4.16 2.5.18 2.6.19 2.7.22 3.23 3.1.23 3.2.24 3.3.25 3.4.26 4.27 5.29 1.5 2.6 3 20 21.6 4.7 5 20 17-2 022.8 6 20 17-2 022.8 7 20 18-2 022.8 8 20 18-2 022.8 9.9 10.10 11.10 12.11 13.12 14.12 15.13 16.13 17 T O P C on.14 18.15 19.16 20.16 21 T O P C o n.16 22.16 23.17 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。4 24.17 25 2 02 1.17 26 2 02 1.17 27/k g.18 28.18 29 P T O P C o n.18 30 H J T.18 31.19 32 2 015-202 2.20 33 2 02 1.20 34 2 02 1.21 35 2 017-202 1.21 36 2 017-202 2H 1%.22 37.22 38 2 02 1.23 39 2 02 1.23 40 2 018-202 1.24 41.25 42 2 019-202 2H 1.25 43 2 018-202 2 Q1-3.25 44 2 02 2.25 45 2 018-202 1.26 46 2 019-202 2H 1.27 47 2 018-202 2.27 48.28 49.29 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。5 1.1.1 2015 2022 12 9 2021 944 1 1.2 14.75%4 0.99%15.74%32.20%2.98%本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。6 2 iFind 2022 12 9 1.3 2021 99.7%PERC TOPCon HJT 87.2%9.0%0.1%3.4%PERC TOPCon HJT N N TOPCon HJT 3 2 0 21 Wind PERC SE 2028m PERC,87.2%TOPCon,9.0%HJT,0.1%,3.4%,0.3%PERC TOPCon HJT 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。7 450mm/s MBB TOPCon 120ohm/sq 20m 24m HJT 10 2535m 300mm/s 10min 4 1.4 2022 48.80 32.6%2018 2021 CAGR 185.7%2020-2021 2020-2021 2022 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。8 11.3%2022 6.2%ROE 2019 ROE 20%5 20 17-2 022 6 20 17-2 022 Wind Wind 2022 3.03 67.29%7 20 18-2 022 8 2 01 8-202 2 Wind 2019 1320%Wind 2019 8591%2.N 2.1.0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3%16.5%18.4%13.8%10.5%11.3%2.3%7.9%5.0%4.9%6.2%6.4%50.7%20.9%22.2%21.8%0%20%40%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3%本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。9 9 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。10 10 4.5g/cm3 100nm),0.1-1 m 1-100 m)0.5 5.0 m 11 PERC TOPCon V 0.64 0.68 0.70 A 9.53 11.39 10.52%78.22%81.98%82.81%)18.90%23.33%24.29%mg/pcs 75 51 120 N 3.5 5 m 34.5 30 31 mm/s 400 450 380 1 2 PERC 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。11 3 4 5 6 1)MBB Multi-Busbar SMBB Super MBB)SmartWire 2)12 MBB MWT IBC HBC 2022 182 210mm 9-16BB CPIA 2022 9BB 97%9BB 2021 99.9%10 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。12 Single Print Double Print)Dual Print CPIA 2023 13 14 CPIA CPIA 50%26m 13-14m HJT 20%LTP(Laser Transfer Printing)120-160 m 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030E 9BB 9BB 5BB0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030E 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。13 15 16 CPIA CPIA 2.2.TOPCon Poly TOPCon PERC PERC TOPCon TOPCon 1 P+AlOx 2 3 P+SE 4 N+Poly Poly;5 Al0 x Poly 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。14 17 T O P C on 2.3.HJT HJT TCO TCO HJT TCO HJT 1 2 3 1 5-10 4 50 200mm/s 30/40/50m 30-50m 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。15 300mm/s 20m 24/27/30m 300mm/s 11/cm 3-6 18 HJT HJT HJT 90%50%SMBB 65mg/PERC 1 100%2 3 4 5 24.557%24.430%24.300%24.808%24.679%24.548%24.00%24.10%24.20%24.30%24.40%24.50%24.60%24.70%24.80%24.90%m m mN-N-本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。16 19 20 10-6 cm 107S/m 1.59 6.30 1.68 5.96 1.72 5.80 2.44 4.10 2.65 3.77 6.99 1.43 9.70 1.00 2.4.M10-182mm TOPCon 6%100mg 12.5mg/W PERC 4%21 T O P C on 22,81%,6%,13%,97.82%,1.42%,0.16%,0.14%,0.26%,0.20%本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。17 23 24 DOWA a DOWA=1.01+b DOWA=1.01+1+25 2 02 1 26 2 02 1 SMM 2022 11 DOWA,67.56%,32.44%DOWA DOWA,82.19%,7.84%,2.73%,2.53%,1.74%DOWA 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。18 3225 5232/kg 150/kg 6247 5542 3621/kg 27/k g 28 SMM CPIA 2.5.CPIA 2021 27m 2022 20m 2021 P 71.7mg/8.3%24.7mg/TOPCon 95%75.1mg/190mg/14.9%29 P T O P C on 30 H J T CPIA CPIA 010002000300040005000600070002022/6/24 2022/8/19 2022/10/14()()05101520253001000200030004000500060002019 2020 2021 2022H1/kg/0204060802021 2022E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030EP mg/P mg/TOPCon mg/0501001502002021 2022E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030EHJT mg/本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。19 2022-2024 20%2022-2024 255/335/421GW 305/403/505GW HJT TOPCon N N PERC 2022-2024 4789/6151/7443 221/264/323 CAGR 19.35%31 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 108 124 170 255 335 421 514 YoY%49.7%31.8%25.4%22.2%1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GW 305.4 402.5 504.8 617.0 GW 140.1 163.4 223.9 305.4 402.5 504.8 617.0 BSF GW 44.1 14.4 10.7 6.7 4.8 PERC GW 91.1 141.2 202.2 253.5 294.2 339.3 377.6 TOPCon GW 2.1 3.3 4.7 28.7 62.4 88.9 121.6 HJT GW 1.4 2.5 3.6 12.5 31.0 58.1 94.4(IBC GW 1.4 2.1 2.7 4.0 10.1 15.7 23.4 3025 2994 3577 4789 6151 7443 8794 YoY-1.0%19.5%33.9%28.4%21.0%18.2%PERC TOPCon+2939.5 2885.0 3446.3 4508.2 5601.8 6541.9 7496.3 BSF 1148.6 348.3 232.7 141.5 97.5 PERC 1709.5 2424.8 3079.3 3724.3 4148.9 4669.3 5001.1 TOPCon 60.8 83.3 103.7 599.8 1251.7 1717.9 2272.0(IBC 20.6 28.6 30.6 42.6 103.7 154.7 223.2 HJT HJT 66.7 83.9 102.7 241.5 452.4 756.7 1089.5/16.2 20.6 25.1 21.6 20.0 20.0 20.0/kg 4179 4902 5300 4554 4216 4216 4216/kg 4179 4902 5300 4554 4216 4216 4216/kg 6179 6902 7300 6554 6216 6216 6216 147.2 190.1 221.1 264.3 322.9 383.8 YoY%29.2%16.3%19.5%22.2%18.9%CPIA iFind 2.6.P 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。20 2016 PERC 2018-2020 CPIA 2015 5%2022 80%2021 CPIA 2021 TOPCon 70%2021 HJT 10%HJT 32 2 01 5-202 2 33 2 02 1 1 2 3 4 5 6()Mono 7 8 9 10 CPIA CPIA 2021 944 492 229 3 1667 65%61%80%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E%本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。21 34 2 02 1 2019-2021 211 501 944 111.5%35 2 017-202 1 2018 16.62%2022H1 11.33%5.29pct 2018 19.89%2022H1 8.25%11.64pct,37.09%,19.33%,9.01%,34.57%211501944189 19731232849217720123615422942464998 53840100020003000400050006000020040060080010002017 2018 2019 2020 2021/kg 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。22 2018 19.64%2022H1 14.33%5.31pct N N TOPCon HJT W 23 36 2 017-202 2 H 1%iFind 2.7.1000 1.61-2.55 1000 48GW 0.03-0.05/GW 37/3000 2.73 1200 500 1.61 12 1000 1.82 1000 TOPCon 1.82 24 500 1.27 350 150 2.55 16.62%18.40%13.75%10.44%11.33%19.89%16.98%13.30%10.42%8.25%19.64%17.55%17.37%14.28%14.33%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。23 2021 91.03%32 41 12 38 2 02 1 39 2 02 1 iFind iFind 3.3.1.2022 6 30 315 305 10 305 291 SDI 2020 12 4 SDI 800 SDI 30 SDI 2018 2019 TOPCon HJT PERC/2022 2021 250 91.03%91.58%64.20%0%20%40%60%80%100%405032747341842120 50 100 150 200 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。24 44.8%PERC TOPCon HJT IBC MBB SEMI N 40 2 018-202 1 3.2.2022 7.69 4.95 3.37 2.92 2.44 63.2%4 2021 1 3 5 6 2019 87.49%2022H1 93.17%7611917025041.2%44.1%44.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021%)本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。25 41 42 2 019-202 2H 1 3.3.2018 2022 Q3 17.88 61.18%36.64%2022 9 30 98.40%1 43 20 18-20 22 Q 1-3 44 2 02 2 Wind Wind 43.69%53.29%57.08%63.20%0%20%40%60%80%0102030402019 2020 2021 2022H1%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0102030402018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3,5.53%,2.89%,61.18%,3.48%,6.76%,18.42%,1.73%本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。26 62 50 4 2021 41 32 45 2 018-202 1 Wind 3.4.2020 2021 944 2022H1 1404 101.8%96%3241120102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。27 46 2 019-202 2 H 1 Wind 2018 5.9%2022 0.3%5.6pct 2018 2.2%2022 0.8%1.4pct 2018 7.5%2022 3.3%4.2pct N 3.3%47 2 018-202 2 Wind 4.2021 37%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0200400600800100012002019 2020 2021 2022H1%5.9%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.3%2.2%1.0%2.2%1.1%0.8%7.5%4.4%3.7%3.2%3.3%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3%本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。28 23-24 20/TOPCon PERC 54%HJT PERC PERC TOPCon HJT 11%14%20%2022-2024 1432/1996/2603 12.0%/12.6%/13.1%48 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 25.0 50.7 66.6 87.1 115.1%102.5%31.6%30.7%32.2%13.7%10.4%11.9%12.6%13.0%501 944 1432 1996 2603 PERC 409 819 1123 1368 1665 TOPCon 14 28 181 413 613 HJT 14 27 73 149 270(IBC 64 70 55 66 55/kg 4902 5300 4554 4216 4216 TOPCon 4902 5300 4554 4216 4216 6902 7300 6554 6216 6216%PERC 13.3%10.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%TOPCon 17.0%14.0%14.0%14.0%HJT 30.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%(IBC 7.0%9.0%13.0%14.0%0.01 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 YoY%1835.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.4%23.8%23.8%23.8%23.8%25.0 50.8 66.8 87.3 115.3 YoY%103.1%31.4%30.6%32.1%13.8%10.5%12.0%12.6%13.1%CPIA iFind 2022-2024 66.83/87.30/115.33 3.84/5.90/8.73 2022-2024 31.44%/30.64%/32.10%55.48%/53.85%/47.82%EPS 3.43/5.27/7.80/PE 40.91/26.59/17.99 2023 2024 CAGR 50.81%23 PEG 0.8 PE 40.65 2023 214.23 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。29 49 EPS PE X CAGR-2%2023 PEG 22E 23E 24E 22E 23E 24E 300842.SZ 49 0.31 2.08 3.20 159.61 23.79 15.46 221.29%0.44 002079.SZ 121 0.38 0.41 0.55 39.42 36.54 27.24 20.31%1.31-107.01 29.04 20.56 125.73%0.82-688503.SH 157 3.43 5.27 7.80 40.91 26.59 17.99 50.81%0.56 Wind Wind 2023 2 23 5.1 2 3 3000 12 4 5 2022 63.13%6 N PERC 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。30 Tabl e_Excel 2:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 30.0 107.4 4,297.8 5,265.2 6,182.7 2,502.7 5,083.9 6,682.5 8,730.2 11,532.6+1,036.6 1,861.8 2,435.0 3,181.1 4,202.3 2,158.0 4,551.0 5,882.6 7,626.4 10,026.2 1.1 140.8 185.0 241.7 319.3 4.3 9.7 13.4 14.8 18.5 285.7 533.5 689.6 894.0 1,175.3 18.9 20.1 26.7 21.8 23.1 49.6 68.9 82.2 107.4 141.9 147.3 216.4 260.6 253.2 299.8 1,403.0 2,712.3 7,689.6 9,689.4 12,021.5 6.4-0.3 24.8 110.0 163.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.9-2.6 17.6 22.9 271.8 208.0 144.3-9.6-1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 42.6 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.3-19.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.2 69.0 57.5 46.0 34.5-18.1 1.7-49.5-50.5-35.5 18.1 17.9 19.7 22.0 26.0 139.2 266.4 423.4 651.5 963.3 81.8 152.4 348.9 276.0 204.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1,484.8 2,864.8 8,038.5 9,965.4 12,226.2 139.5 266.8 423.7 651.8 963.6 346.0 1,264.7 2,864.7 4,064.7 5,264.7 15.2 20.1 40.0 61.5 90.9+84.6 237.1 314.8 408.1 536.6 124.2 246.8 383.7 590.3 872.6 63.5 115.9 148.2 191.6 251.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 494.0 1,617.7 3,327.8 4,664.4 6,052.5 124.2 246.8 383.7 590.3 872.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 495.4 1,629.0 3,339.0 4,675.7 6,063.8 179.94%103.14%31.44%30.64%32.10%0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 50.67%82.70%68.29%69.87%47.96%83.9 83.9 111.9 111.9 111.9 EBITDA 52.25%92.89%82.01%59.64%43.36%704.9 704.9 3,756.9 3,756.9 3,756.9 75.55%98.62%55.48%53.85%47.82%200.5 446.9 830.6 1,420.9 2,293.5 989.4 1,235.7 4,699.4 5,289.7 6,162.4 13.77%10.48%11.97%12.64%13.06%1,484.8 2,864.8 8,038.5 9,965.4 12,226.2 4.96%4.85%5.74%6.76%7.57%ROE 12.56%19.97%8.16%11.16%14.16%ROIC 38.54%18.57%16.22%17.52%20.56%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 124.2 246.8 383.7 590.3 872.6 33.36%56.86%41.54%46.92%49.60%3.8 22.2 76.9 76.9 75.2 2.8 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 6.4-0.3 24.8 110.0 163.6 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.7-200.8-247.8-156.1-204.4-281.3-988.7-1,344.6-676.9-895.8-1,226.4 3.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 239.9 262.9 157.1 205.4 282.3 7.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5-815.2-1,060.9-190.4-117.6-113.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.9-68.1-77.6-270.0 0.0 0.0-8.7 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.3 7.8-1.9-29.7-4.4-5.0-5.0(7.3)(9.5)(1.7)(1.1)(1.0)-78.6-96.1-274.4-5.0-5.0 8.8 11.0 42.0 47.3 55.1 184.1 918.8 1,600.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 17.2 0.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 126.3 63.6 40.9 26.6 18.0 699.2 275.7 3,027.2-110.0-163.6 15.9 12.7 3.3 3.0 2.5 900.6 1,194.5 4,655.2 1,090.0 1,036.4 EV/EBITDA 107.2 58.8 28.4 18.3 13.3 9.3 57.8 4,190.3 967.4 917.5 EV/EBIT 110.0 63.7 33.3 20.2 14.1 iFinD 2023 2 23 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。31 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%/8 9 1198 1 37 0510-82833337 021-38991500 0510-82833217 021-38571373 208 4 6009 29 010-64285217 0755-82775695 010-64285805 本报告仅供邮箱所有人使用，未经许可，不得外传。