深度报告-20230119-华创证券-德新科技-603032.SH-深度研究报告_好风扶摇凭借力_蓝海扬帆正当时_30页_3mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 19 603032 113.4 87.25 2021 3 23 ATL BYD 97.73%21+427.43%22 Q1-Q3 4.43+159.70%22H1 91%22-24 1.34/0.70/0.35/1)/2)0.03Gwh 1.62Gwh 3)62%4)5)22H1 7 one stop UC+4C 2025 57 22-25 CAGR 60.5%2025 21.8 22-25 CAGR 13.9%know-how 2022/2023/2024 1.77/5.44/8.06 PE 82X/27X/18X 2023 35X PE 113.4 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()271 558 1,185 1,714(%)427.4%105.6%112.5%44.6%()71 177 544 806(%)920.7%149.9%208.3%47.8%()0.42 1.05 3.24 4.79()206 83 27 18()19.0 13.4 9.2 6.4 2023 1 17 S0360522080001()16,818.30()16,000.80()146.74()139.61(%)45.73()5.76 12/96.94/52.77(12)-29%-10%10%30%22/01 22/03 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-172023-01-17 300 603032 2009 1210 23 1)0.03Gwh 1.62Gwh 2)3)1)2)22-25 13.8 23.6 38.3 57.0 CAGR 60.5%3)22-25 14.71 16.35 18.71 21.76 CAGR 13.9%22-25 5.58/11.9/17.1 1.77/5.44/8.06 23 PE 26X 23 35x PE 113.4/603032 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.9.13/.13.15.16.17.18.20.20.20.22.24.26 603032 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4 2022Q3.8 5.8 6.9 7.10 8.10 9.10 10.10 11.11 12.11 13.11 14.11 15.12 16.12 17.13 18.14 19.14 20.14 21.14 22.15 23 VS.15 24.15 25.15 26.16 27.16 28.16 29.16 30.17 31 CT.18 32 R.18 33.18 603032 2009 1210 5 34.19 35 22-25.20 36.21 37 22-25.21 38.23 39.23 40 2022H1.23 41.24 42.24 43.25 603032 2009 1210 6,2021 3 100%21 1 Choice 23 ATL BYD 1999 2008 2011 2018 2022 51%2 603032 2009 1210 7 TWS 3 3C TWS 47.57%7.36%4.96%603032 2009 1210 8 0.95%4 2022Q3 Choice 2020-2022 6,410.50 6,916.00 8,173.50=-1 30%2 20%2021 100 733 2022 4,730.53 2,703.70 5/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E-0.184 0.736 0.407 0.200 0.096 0.018 0.000-0.000 0.097 0.290 0.146 0.074 0.349 0.005 0.237 0.510 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.128 0.382 Total 0.421 1.342 0.697 0.346 0.171 0.495 0.387 603032 2009 1210 9 4.96%3 2 1 6,2018 12 2006 2018 4,2018 4,2021 12,2021 12,鐄 2008 11()()2012 12 2013 8 2012 12 2017 8 2013 9 2016 5 2016 5 2017 8,2017 3 2018 1 2017 8 2017 9 2017 9 2018 7 2018 1 2018 7 2021 6 2018 4 26 1994 2008 2016 2001 6 2018 5 2019 5 Choice 18-20 1.70/0.99/0.51 2018 2 3 21 3 97.73%21+427.43%22 Q1-Q3 4.43+159.70%603032 2009 1210 10 7 8 Choice Choice 2021 73 75.4%2022 186 208.64%21 31,061.42+90.89%22Q1-Q3 40,648.84 30.87%9 10 2020 1-9 2020 2021 0.71+920.69%21 5-12 0.70 22 1.42+117.97%1.80 0.27 0.47+60.18%603032 2009 1210 11 11 12 Choice,Choice,21 85.56%21 12.02%63.82%20 20 9.66 pcts 13.20%-23.95 pcts-16.98%21 55.87%26.05%22 Q1-Q3 64.76%31.93%22 70+%13%14 Choice 2020 1-9 Choice 21 0.89/2.58%/25.46%/5.54%/-0.74%22Q122Q3 1.18 1.81%/18.28%/5.64%/0.90%18-20 21 5.64%603032 2009 1210 12 15 16 Choice,Choice,603032 2009 1210 13/30-35%/70%1.2.3.17-1 0.5mm 18m/s 0.8m/s 2 603032 2009 1210 14 18 19 bilibili HBbilibili/Mark 20 21 1 2 3 603032 2009 1210 15 4 1 2 3 3 5 10-15 22 23 VS super super 2019 VDA 0.6s/0.03Gwh 24 1.6Gwh 24 25 603032 2009 1210 16 177Ah 135Ah 4680 86.4%86.0%88.7%4680 R 26 27 EV 62%28 29 1 2 3 XYZ X 4593mm Y CCS 15mm Z CCS 603032 2009 1210 17 7mm 30 CATL 10%R 603032 2009 1210 18 31 CT 32 R 22H1 3 7 1)CATL+SDI 2)LG+SK 3)+4)+one stop UC 5)4C 33 2022H1 Gwh 2022H1 1 69 34.2%2 LGES 28 13.9%3 24 11.9%+4 Panasonic 20 9.9%5 SK On 14 6.9%6 SDI 10 5.0%7 9 4.5%+one stop 60GWh 8 5 2.5%+UC 9 3 1.5%4C 10 3 1.5%+11 Others 17 8%Total 202 100%SNEResearch GGII wind 603032 2009 1210 19 34-36 603032 2009 1210 20 2022 H1 3 22-25 13.8 23.6 38.3 57.0 CAGR 60.5%35 22-25 marklines 10%-20%4-5 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%-10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.02022E 2023E 2024E 2025E五金模切市场空间（亿）YOY（右轴）603032 2009 1210 21 36 CATL 22-25 14.71 16.35 18.71 21.76 CAGR 13.9%37 22-25 marklines EDI 2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.002022E 2023E 2024E 2025E涂布头市场空间(亿元）YOY-右轴 603032 2009 1210 22 1)FORTIX 15 20 45 60 24 2)ATL BYD 2018 5 2019 3 2022 2021 2 27 7 JG 3 2021 2 27 25 3 22 L 603032 2009 1210 23 38 39 Va/Vb 15 m Va/Vb 3C 240-300/1000 2022 H1 69%28.3%26.9%40 2022H1 Choice Wind 603032 2009 1210 24 1)2)1)22 2)2022-2024 5.58/11.85/17.14 106%/112%/45%1.77/5.44/8.06 149%/207%/48%41 42 Wind Wind 2022-2024 PE 39 26 18 23 PE 35 113.4 0%100%200%300%400%500%0246810121416182021A 2022E 2023E 2024E YOY 0%50%100%150%200%250%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002021A 2022E 2023E 2024E YOY 603032 2009 1210 25 43 EPS PE 21A 22E 23E 24E 21A 22E 23E 24E 21E 22E 23E 24E 002595 195 10.53 12.25 13.79 15.85 1.32 1.53 1.72 1.98 19 16 14 12 300151 111 1.12 1.69 2.50 3.57 0.25 0.34 0.50 0.71 99 66 44 31 300707 25 0.49 0.61 1.01 2.11 0.28 0.39 0.64 1.34 52 42 25 12 002976 30 0.46 0.89 1.35 1.80 0.38 0.74 1.12 1.50 65 33 22 16 59 39 26 18 603032 146 0.71 1.77 5.44 8.06 0.44 1.05 3.24 4.79 206 82 27 18 Wind 2023 1 17 wind 603032 2009 1210 26 1)/2)3)4)603032 2009 1210 27 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 79 155 71 139 271 558 1,185 1,714 8 17 37 53 120 192 382 590 180 371 788 1,139 7 11 18 26 1 2 4 6 7 11 18 26 103 165 329 507 69 131 102 89 0 0 0 0 15 31 65 94 168 173 206 340-2-2-1-1 539 883 1,435 2,184-1-2-4-8 165 165 165 165 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 201 220 366 496 3 3 6 4 0 0 0 0 20 31 46 69 72 85 108 123 79 209 644 949 437 437 436 436 1 1 0 1 878 910 1,078 1,223 0 0 0 0 1,417 1,793 2,513 3,407 80 210 644 950 0 0 0 0 9 33 100 145 0 0 0 0 71 177 544 805 64 49 103 182 0 0 0-1 1 2 4 5 71 177 544 806 19 38 81 118 NOPLAT 69 175 543 804 248 248 248 248 EPS()0.42 1.05 3.24 4.79 1 1 1 1 27 75 187 269 360 413 624 823 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 427.4%105.6%112.5%44.6%288 288 288 288 EBIT 1,077.9%169.4%208.2%47.5%288 288 288 288 920.7%149.9%208.3%47.8%648 701 912 1,111 769 1,092 1,601 2,297 55.9%65.6%67.8%65.6%0 0 0-1 26.1%31.7%45.9%47.0%769 1,092 1,601 2,296 ROE 9.2%16.2%34.0%35.1%1,417 1,793 2,513 3,407 ROIC 13.6%22.3%42.2%43.7%45.7%39.1%36.3%32.6%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 37.6%26.5%18.1%12.6%60-59 62 416 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.7 96 204 575 854 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.0-102-62-163-178-183-200-439-370 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 274-15 56 81 123 178 176 202-25 14 33 29 109 106 71 87-136-61-221-316 156 251 233 255-86-61-201-196()0 0 0 0 0.42 1.05 3.24 4.79-50 0-20-120 0.36-0.35 0.37 2.47 82 196 75-32 4.57 6.49 9.52 13.66 1 0 0 0 0-35-109-161 P/E 206 83 27 18 83 83 83 83 P/B 19 13 9 6-2 148 101 46 EV/EBITDA 125 56 20 13 603032 2009 1210 28/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 603032 2009 1210 29 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 603032 2009 1210 30(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522