深度报告-20230117-国海证券-博彩行业深度报告_行业周期底部_价值洼地修复_39页_1mb.pdf

博彩行业深度报告：行业周期底部 价值洼地修复()2023 01 17 1()()S0350521110002 S 2 300 1M 3M 12M 0.3%22.3%7.77 300 3.3%8.6%-2.78-0.1454-0.06650.01230.09110.17000.2488 3003 2023/01/16 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E00027.HK 银河娱乐 54.15 0.30-0.32 1.57 132.80-33.95 未评级00880.HK 澳博控股 4.79-0.73-0.69-0.09-未评级01128.HK 永利澳门 9.66-1.00-1.21-0.01-未评级01928.HK金沙中国有限公司28.75-0.13-0.16 0.05-70.49 未评级02282.HK 美高梅中国 10.58-1.01-1.08-0.06-未评级 Wind 1 16 wind EPS 1 16 1=0.1280 4 2019 70%2020 20%+2019 20%2022 6 887800 50%65%5 601 7 VIP 2017 2021 30%Wind 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000 30.9%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 8 Wind 2019 62.2%164.6%2020 2021 48.2%93.10%40%35%2%3%2019+40%2020+60%+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 9 6 Wind-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%yoy 2021 9 14 2022 1 24 2022 3 3 2022 6 26 2022 12 31 2022 6 21 2022 6 26 6 2022 2022 7 29 2022 9 14 6+7 6 2022 11 26 2022 12 16 1002 11 12-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%2005-012005-072006-012006-072007-012007-072008-012008-072009-012009-072010-012010-072011-012011-072012-012012-072013-012013-072014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-07 yoy yoy 2019 Wind 2019 70%18.66%2.7%11%3%3%11.1%1.6%2.4%1.6%1.7%1.3%1.0%3.0%0.7%0.5%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,0002019 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%2002-012002-082003-032003-102004-052004-122005-072006-022006-092007-042007-112008-062009-012009-082010-032010-102011-052011-122012-072013-022013-092014-042014-112015-062016-012016-082017-032017-102018-052018-122019-07 13 10 2022Q3 5,974 12,387 0200400600800100012001400160018000510152025 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 14 2019 47.3%4 2019 90%Wind 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002000-012000-112001-092002-072003-052004-032005-012005-112006-092007-072008-052009-032010-012010-112011-092012-072013-052014-032015-012015-112016-092017-072018-052019-032020-012020-112021-092022-07 01234567891001000200030004000500060007000800090002000-032000-122001-092002-062003-032003-122004-092005-062006-032006-122007-092008-062009-032009-122010-092011-062012-032012-122013-092014-062015-032015-122016-092017-062018-032018-122019-092020-062021-032021-122022-09/0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%050000010000001500000200000025000003000000350000040000002002-012002-102003-072004-042005-012005-102006-072007-042008-012008-102009-072010-042011-012011-102012-072013-042014-012014-102015-072016-042017-012017-102018-072019-042020-012020-102021-072022-04 15 2018 10 2019 1330 7.8 2021 3 2025 氹 1603 17 GGR Wind 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002005-012005-052005-092006-012006-052006-092007-012007-052007-092008-012008-052008-092009-012009-052009-092010-012010-052010-092011-012011-052011-092012-012012-052012-092013-012013-052013-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-09 18(100)(50)0501001502002503000204060801001201401602011/3/42011/4/152011/5/272011/7/82011/8/192011/9/302011/11/112011/12/232012/2/32012/3/162012/4/272012/6/82012/7/202012/8/312012/10/122012/11/232013/1/42013/2/152013/3/292013/5/102013/6/212013/8/22013/9/132013/10/252013/12/62014/1/172014/2/282014/4/112014/5/232014/7/42014/8/152014/9/262014/11/72014/12/192015/1/302015/3/132015/4/242015/6/52015/7/172015/8/282015/10/92015/11/202016-01-042016-03-072016-05-062016-07-062016-09-022016-11-022016-12-302017-03-032017-05-042017-07-042017-08-312017-11-012017-12-292018-03-022018-05-032018-07-032018-08-302018-11-012019-01-032019-03-072019-05-102019-07-122019-09-102019-11-112020-01-132020-03-132020-05-182020-07-172020-09-152020-11-172021-01-182021-03-192021-05-242021-07-232021-09-212021-11-232022-01-212022-03-252022-05-312022-08-012022-09-292022-11-29 Wind CESG10 2015 累计涨跌幅%2016-2018 2022 12 2 19 Wind 行业估值周期与行业景气周期对应 2011-2014 2016-2018 GGR 22.4-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0510152025EV/EBITDA 20 Wind 2018 2370510152025-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%EV/EBITDA 210102030405060708090 8 Wind 22 2020 2020 2022 2019 20%2022 1 8 4 Wind 25.5%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%2020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-10 2023 1 8 9 0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%350.0%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000 8 9 8 2022 9 2022 23 6 50 50 35%+5%5%2%+3%3 2404 25 VIP VIP VIP 2011 73%2021 33%VIP 2015 2018 2015/2019 VIP 39.9%/18.6%2021 VIP VIP 90%VIP VIP 2013 235 2021 84 2021 VIP 11 VIP CEO 2022 6 VIP Wind 2004-2021 VIP 2012 VIP 0501001502002502006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%050010001500200025003000200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021VIP yoy%26 VIP+2010 2010-2019 CAGR 5.2%2019 71%2020 2020/2021 2019 15%/20%2013-2021 CAGR 8.6%VIP 2011 27%2021 67%VIP 2021Q3 VIP 26.4%Wind 2011%2020-2022 10 2019 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%VIP-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%02000400060008000100001200014000160002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 yoy%27 2021 9 2018 2021 2010 2019 27%Nevada Gaming Control Board Abstract Report 201970.0%75.0%80.0%85.0%90.0%95.0%100.0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020,27%,32%,18%,8%,15%2805 29 Wind 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 22 22 22 22 23 20 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 40 41 41 41 42 370%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20 2-5 2021 42 25 17 23 6 5 4 2 2019 24.22%30 Wind-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-10-5051015202530352014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021EBITDA(亿美元)EBITDA 增速50 49 46 46 44 43 46 55 57 63 63 82 91 01020304050607080901002009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021资产负债率(%)-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0102030405060708090100营业收入(亿美元)营收增速-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%-20-15-10-5051015202530归母净利润(亿美元)归母增速0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%-10010203040502018 2019 2020 2021新增信贷（亿美元）循環融資可供動用的借款額（亿美元）现金及现金等价物(亿美元)流动比率 EBITDA 78%79%80%69%69%22%21%20%31%31%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 31 Wind EBITDA-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0100200300400500600700800营业收入(亿港元)营收增速-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%-60-40-20020406080100120140160归母净利润(亿港元)归母增速0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021貴賓（亿澳门币）中場（亿澳门币）56 62 59 50 29 25 25 29 33 28 23 27 19 0102030405060702009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021资产负债率(%)(2)(1)0123456(20)0204060801001201401601802014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021EBITDA(亿港元)EBITDA 增速60.1168.721.2131.686.969.502040608010012014016018032 Wind EBITDA-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050100150200250300350400450营业收入(亿港元)营收增速-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%-80-60-40-20020406080100归母净利润(亿港元)归母增速0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021貴賓（亿港元）中場 其他-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-40-200204060801001202014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021EBITDA(亿港元)EBITDA 增速76 70 77 56 70 79 90 94 93 97 96 110 124 0204060801001201402009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021资产负债率(%)00.511.522.53-500501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021新增信贷循環融資可供動用的借款額（亿港元）现金及现金等价物(亿港元)流动比率33 Wind-30,000-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1金沙中国现金流量（百万港元）经营活动现金流净额 投资活动现金流净额筹资活动现金流净额 现金及现金等价物净额-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1银河娱乐现金流量（百元港元）经营活动现金流净额 投资活动现金流净额筹资活动现金流净额 现金及现金等价物净额-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1永利澳门现金流量（百万港元）经营活动现金流净额 投资活动现金流净额筹资活动现金流净额 现金及现金等价物净额-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1新濠国际现金流量（百万港元）经营活动现金流净额 投资活动现金流净额筹资活动现金流净额 现金及现金等价物净额-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1澳博控股现金流量（百万港元）经营活动现金流净额 投资活动现金流净额筹资活动现金流净额 现金及现金等价物净额-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1美高梅中国现金流量（百万港元）经营活动现金流净额 投资活动现金流净额筹资活动现金流净额 现金及现金等价物净额3406 35 Wind:2023/01/16 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E00027.HK 银河娱乐 54.15 0.30-0.32 1.57 132.80-33.95 未评级00880.HK 澳博控股 4.79-0.73-0.69-0.09-未评级01128.HK 永利澳门 9.66-1.00-1.21-0.01-未评级01928.HK金沙中国有限公司28.75-0.13-0.16 0.05-70.49 未评级02282.HK 美高梅中国 10.58-1.01-1.08-0.06-未评级 Wind 1 16 wind EPS 1 16 1=0.1280 361 2 3 4 5 6 7 37,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%/2017 2017 2018 2017 2018 2018 38 R3/28F 518041 0755-83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597