20230220-湘财证券-ChatGPT专题研究之二_算力的提升是人工智能发展的基石_10页_991kb (1).pdf

ChatGPT 专 题 研 究 之 二：算力的提升是人工智能发展的基石 相关研究：1+2023.01.30 2 ChatGPT 2023.02.08 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-2.66-11.2-8.7-3.2-2.5-19.9 300 S0500523010001 Tel(8621)50293694 Email 88 10 ChatGPT AI CPU AI CPU GPU 70%CPU GPU 50%-80%IDC 2021 AI 44.5%AI 2023/2024/2025 AI X86 CPU 72.55/90.05/108.61 2023 43.53 34.4%2023/2024/2025 AI 43.37/58.72/76.42 36.3%/35.4%/30.1%2023 CPU GPU MOSFET SIC CPU&GPU Chiplet 证 券研 究报告 2023 年 02 月 20 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 半 导体 行业事 件点 评 2 1 ChatGPT AI ChatGPT 2021.2.0 CPU AI ChatGPT ChatGPT TFLOPS 1TFLOPS=/PFLOPS 1PFLOPS=/15%-25%2 AICC AI CPU AI IT 3 70%CPU,GPU,PCB,DRAM,SSD,BMC IDC CPU GPU 30%50%-80%1 2.1 CPU GPU 2021 AI 6%-7%IDC 2021 AI 44.5%AI IDC X86 2016 2020 80%IDC 2021 X86 375.1 9.1%2022 408.4 8.9%2023 9%2021-2025 8.8%CPU 2 4 IDC 2023/2024/2025 89.3%/90%/90%4 4.6%/5.3%/5.3%2023/2024/2025 AI 8%/9%/10%X86 2023 4 X86 906.91 9.2%;2024 1000.5 10.3%2025 1086.1 8.6%2023/2024/2025 AI X86 CPU 72.55/90.05/108.61 1 AI CPU 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E X86 408 445 484 525 1 6.30%6.00%5%5%1 25.7 26.7 24.19 26.26 2 89.00%89.3%90%90%2 363.12 397.39 433 470.05 4 4.60%4.60%5.30%5.30%4 18.77 20.47 25.64 27.84 8 0.10%0.10%0.20%0.20%8 0.41 0.45 0.97 1.05 X86 CPU 830.28 906.91 1,000.50 1,086.11 X86 CPU 9.2%10.3%8.6%AI 6.5%8%9%10%AI CPU 53.97 72.55 90.05 108.61 IDC 2021 250.9 391.1 CPU 1/3-1/2 X86 CPU 5000 6300 AI AI CPU 6000/2023 43.53 34.4%2 AI CPU 2023E 2024E 2025E AI CPU 72.55 90.05 108.61 CPU 6300/43.53 54.03 65.17 IDC AI IDC 2017 AI 4.31 GPU,2018 5.1 2019 8.02 2023 8.02 AI 1 AI 1500 2023 2025 3%5 2023/2024/2025 AI 289.1/403.6/552.8 36.3%/39.6%/37%2023/2024/2025 AI 43.37/58.72/76.42 36.3%/35.4%/30.1%IDC 2026 103.4 3 AI 2023E 2024E 2025E 452 498 553 AI 8%9.0%10%AI 36.1 44.8 55.3 AI/8 9 10 AI 289.1 403.6 552.8 36.3%39.6%37.0%AI 1500 1455 1382.25 AI 43.37 58.72 76.42 36.3%35.4%30.1%AI GPU GPGPU FPGA ASIC FPGA ASIC ASIC GPGPU IDC 2021 GPU 90%NPU FPGA ASIC 11.6%43.8%IDC GPU AI 2025 80%2023/2024/2025 GPU 88%/85%/80%,GPU 2022 2025 29.64%Frost&sullivan 2020 FPGA FPGA 10.7%2022 FPGA 6 208.8 2025 FPGA 332.2 2022 FPGA 10%2025 13%2025 FPGA 49.8(7.7)2022 2025 FPGA 41.8%4 AI 2023E 2024E 2025E CAGR AI 43.37 58.72 76.42 33.92%GPU 38.166 49.91 61.1 29.64%FPGA 6.5 3.21 5.27 7.7 41.80%2.0 3.5 7.6 96%IDC Frost&sullivan 2.2+5G AI PB EB 1 3D NAND NAND Flash NAND FLASH bit NAND Flash/SLC NAND 1/MLC NAND 2/TLC NAND 3/QLC NAND 4/TLC SSD QLC SSD NAND Flash 2D NAND 3D NAND NAND 7 3D NAND 200+SK 200+NAND 2 2020 NANDS 3 2D NAND VS 3D NAND Trendforce SSD IDC 2025 SSD 10K HDD Trendforc 2023 44.6%&3D NAND 4 IDC SSD 5 NAND FLASH Trendforce 2 OpenAI ChatGPT SLC QLC MLC TLC 8 DRAM SSD 3 2020 6700 2025 9500 3%UPS 70%21%6 4 2023 C P U G P U M O S F E T S I C 9 C P U&G P U C hi pl et 5 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明