深度报告-20230222-国海证券-格力博-301260.SZ-公司报告_家用市场领先_新单品打开商用市场_盈利修复确定性强_34页_2mb.pdf

格力博(301260.SZ)公司报告：家用 市场领先，新单品打开商用市场，盈利修复确定性强()()S0350521120006 S()2023 02 22 2 300 1M 3M 12M-300-0.89%9.96%-10.57%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 5004 5400 7700 9300(%)17 8 43 21 280 310 801 1148(%)-51 11 158 43 0.58 0.64 1.65 2.36ROE(%)21 19 32 32P/E-61.01 23.64 16.48P/B-11.36 7.67 5.24P/S-3.51 2.46 2.04EV/EBITDA 1.72 61.72 24.36 15.58 Wind 2023 2 21-0.0493-0.0287-0.00810.01250.03310.0537 3003 1 2 3 3 4 1 2025 286 153 133 84 2022-2025 10%20 60%2+3 4 66%1 2021 2021 2 2022 2023 Lowe s 5-20%2022-2024 54/77/93 3.1/8.0/11.5 PE 62/24/17X 4 5 1.1 1.2 1.3 3 1.4 6 75%56%STIHL 2016 10 35%2020 10%STIHL 25%STIHL STIHL 2020 8 2 2/2023 1 31 1.1 7 1999 2003 Fiskars 2004 6 1.2 1973 Warwick University MBA Fiskars BOC 2016 2018 2017-2020 1974 2002 5 2006 5 2006 6 2008 11 OQA 2008 12 2012 2 2012 4 2013 6 2013 8 1975 1994 7 1995 7 1995 7 1998 8 1998 8 2000 1 2001 2 2003 4 2003 5 1982 2005 7 2007 7 2007 7 2010 10 2010 10 2011 12 BMS 2011 12 2012 10 2012 10 2013 12 BMS 2013 12 8 2002 2005 CTC 1 2007 OPE 2 2009 greenworks 2009 2022H1 70%3 2017 1.3 3 930%34%35%28%25%-5%4%13%6%5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022Q1-Q3 3137435054-1.41.55.72.8 3.120%15%17%8%-207%267%-50%9%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%-1001020304050602018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E yoy yoy 2022E 54 8%3 CAGR 13%3.05 9%3 CAGR 26%2021-2022 2021+2022 2020+10%2018-2022 wind 1.4 2018-2022%10 Q1 Q4 2020 Q1 Q4 30%Q2 25%Q3 15%2019-2021 1.4 Q1Q4116,04785,820145,29495,375139,674141,32247,67879,23283,392112,906121,574127,9290100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002019 2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 66%12+2018-2023 3%2018 232 193.80 2023 264 2.62%2.1 13 2018 124.20 53.53%107.80 46.47%2018 2.1 124.2107.895100105110115120125130 54%46%201814 TraQline OPE Outdoor Power Equipment 2010 57%2021 35%13%36%30%+5 TraQline 2.1 2010-2021 15 2025 286 153 133 84 2022-2025 10%20 2022-2025 60%1 2018 3%2 2018 30%2025 55%2018 1%2025 15%2.1 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 124 128 132 135 140 144 148 153 108 111 115 118 122 125 129 133 232 239 246 254 261 269 277 286 30%34%38%41%45%48%52%55%1%1%2%3%4%5%10%15%-37 43 50 56 63 69 77 84-1 1 2 4 5 6 13 20 38 45 52 59 68 75 90 104 16%19%21%23%26%28%32%36%12412813213514014414815310811111511812212512913330%34%38%41%45%48%52%55%1%1%2%3%4%5%10%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001201401601802018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E%16 20V 40V 60V 80V 60V 60V 80V 2.2 17%13%7%11%10%17 2018 82V 2018 PTIA 2022 10 OptimusZ+OptimusZ OptimusZ 1.32 1.3 BrightView BrightView 2025 50%2027 82V 2.2 18 ODM 2009 greenworks POWERWORKS greenworks greenworks Amazon Best Seller 2020 2021 2022H1 54%57%66%2.3 2022 1-6 2021 2020 2019 207,656 66%283,696 57%230,415 54%197,629 53%30,869 10%101,886 20%144,532 34%123,729 33%ODM 78,339 25%112,356 23%51,352 12%50,647 14%316,865 100%497,937 100%426,299 100%372,005 100%/2022 1-6 2021 2020 2019 B2B 68,978 22%123,668 25%80,178 19%36,247 10%B2C 14,980 5%18,423 4%4,650 1%692 0%117,169 37%199,336 40%258,119 61%248,451 67%78,339 25%112,356 23%51,352 12%51,714 14%37,399 12%44,155 9%32,000 8%34,901 9%316,865 100%497,937 100%426,299 100%372,005 100%53%54%57%66%33%34%20%10%14%12%23%25%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 ODM/19 2022 2020H2 greenworks 60V Kobalt 80V Kobalt 40V greenworks 60V TSC 2000 2022 TSC Echo 56V ODM 2022 Echo greenworks 80V Costco 2022 Costco OPE Amazon 2022 Amazon Toro Toro 60V ODM The Home Depot 2.3 Low e s 2022 1-6 1 Amazon greenworks 46,998.92 14.79%2 Costco greenworks 37,405.02 11.77%3 Lo w e s greenworks Kobalt 29,581.38 9.31%4 Toro ODM 28,666.20 9.02%5 TSC greenworks 18,795.86 5.91%161,447.38 50.80%2021 1 Lo w e s greenworks Kobalt 124,153.10 24.81%2 Amazon greenworks 82,799.56 16.55%3 Toro ODM 53,448.05 10.68%4 Harbor Freight Tools 31,758.95 6.35%5 Costco greenworks 23,903.61 4.78%316,063.28 63.16%2020 1 Lo w e s greenworks Kobalt 217,973.56 50.79%2 Amazon greenworks 53,499.69 12.47%3 Harbor Freight Tools 24,230.63 5.65%4 Toro ODM 21,988.68 5.12%5 STIHL ODM 14,941.45 3.48%332,634.01 77.51%2020-2022H120 2022 436 316 752 2 1 500 66%2 3 5 500 2020 2 23-25 20%2.4 66%2723094252181892853371580501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021 2022H1 1 500 116,900.002 3 5 34,000.003 44,700.004 150,000.00 345,600.00=*Q4 213.1 2021 3.2 2022 202322 2021 2021 OPE 2021 2021 2021 2020 39.66%2021 32.56%2021 1.77pct 2019-2021 3.1 2021 2019-2021 OPE 76.67 98.12 27.98%132.03 34.56%6.15 8.01 30.24%10.99 37.20%8.01%8.15%8.32%TheHomeDepot 8.44 12.01 42.30%17.58 46.38%OPE 2.88 5.34 85.42%8.65 61.99%0.34 0.44 29.41%1.45 229.55%4.26%4.02%8.50%Lo w e s ACEHardware Kingfisher OPE 37.25 42.91 15.19%50.04 16.61%1.54 5.66 268.07%2.80 50.54%4.15%13.18%5.59%Amazon TSC Costco Lo w e s Toro Echo STIHL HarborFreightTools 33%26%40%31%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000L o w e s 2021 2020 2021 2020 23 99%2020 6.89 2021 6.45 6.5%2021 27,800 2021=2021*5.2pct 1 FOB DDP 2 2020 4,878 2021 11,592 138%1.6pct 3.1 2021 98.44%98.96%98.61%99.12%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 24 2021 2021 ABS 757 2020 37.27%2020 31.66%2020 59.44%N35SH R22*R22*40 2020 36.75%1.34%3.1 2021 2022 1-6 2021 2020 2019/8.8 7.58 8.25 10.31/-63.47 58.48 58.87/21.65 21.7 21.8 21.92 IC/2.22 2.51 2.65 2.69/21.04 20.92 20.45 21.55/9.14 9 8.7 8.86 ABS/kg 13.19 13.4 9.76 9.78PP/kg 8.7 8.55 8.13 9.27/kg 64.23 60.05 45.61 44.77/-14.97 15.05 15.48/11.29 11.29 12.12 12.97/46.26 45.18 46.64 46.67/14.18 14.04 13.37 13.56/7.85 7.65 7.55 7.72/10.71 10.17 9.54 9.62/kg 5.75 7.24 4.54 4.7525 1-2pct lowe s+2022 2022 9 5 6.91 2022 6.38 8.31%2021 2022 2022 0.7 6.91 2023 1.6 7.02 2023 wind 3.2 2022 2023 26 2022 2021Q4 8%2022Q4 2022H1 76%30%2%3.2 2022 2023 2022H1 2022H1 2021Q4/376C/21.04 21.66-2.86%/9.14 9.39-2.66%ABS 757/kg 13.19 14.89-11.42%PP NC803/kg 8.7 8.9-2.25%/kg 64.23 62.7 2.44%/-14.52 NA 555*395*320mm/AB/11.29 12.22-7.61%2500psi/7.6m/2XM22-14/46.26 45.18 2.39%13.8MPa/6m/2XM22-14/PVC/14.18 14.62-3.01%ADC12/7.85 7.84 0.13%A360/10.71 11.08-3.34%/kg 5.75 6.39-10.02%27 ODM Toro STIHL ODM+ODM+Harbor Freight Tools Amazon Costco TSC 2023 3.2 2022 2023 Toro 15.80%9.30%15.20%16.60%STIHL 13.60%7.70%Amazon 5.40%4.50%4.10%14.50%Harbor Freight Tools 13.10%7.80%14.60%28 29 2022-2024 54/77/93 3.1/8.0/11.5 PE 62/24/16X 4.1 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 43 50 54 77 93 29.4 34.3 42 60.7 77.2 395 544 525 740 930/745 630 800 820 830 10.7 11.5 8 11.0 9.7 204 220 142 200 180/523 522 560 550 540 2.8 4.3 4 5 6 35%28%26%29%30%37%30%26%31%32%32%23%21%22%22%27%17%27%27%23%22%22%20%19%18%13%6%6%10%12%5.6 2.8 3.1 8.0 11.5PE 2023 2 22 38.94 62 24 1630 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 630 1044 829 2370 926 662 1602 1133 2197 1720 3638 2742 476 518 664 728 4228 3944 6734 6974 478 478 478 478 9 9 9 9 503 503 503 503 0 0 0 0 5219 4935 7725 7964 308 308 308 308 2016 1394 3272 2284 0 0 0 0 581 609 720 799 2905 2310 4300 3391 750 750 750 750 209 209 209 209 958 958 958 958 3864 3269 5258 4349 365 365 365 365 1356 1666 2467 3615 5219 4935 7725 7964 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 5004 5400 7700 9300 3628 3996 5467 6510 11 5 8 9 442 475 666 797 414 413 485 512 44 1-4-2/-208 200 277 326 274 310 801 1148 1 0 0 0 275 310 801 1148-5 0 0 0 280 310 801 1148 0 0 0 0 280 310 801 1148 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-61 422-207 1549 280 310 801 1148 0 0 0 0 114 0 0 0-6 0 0 0-484 104-1016 392-45 0 0 0-341 0 0 0 160 0 0 0 136 0 0 0 277-8-8-8 564 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-287-8-8-8 166 414-215 1541 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024EEPS 0.77 0.64 1.65 2.36BVPS 3.72 3.43 5.07 7.44P/E 0.0 61.0 23.6 16.5P/B 0.0 11.4 7.7 5.2P/S 0.0 3.5 2.5 2.0 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024EROE 21%19%32%32%28%26%29%30%18%16%15%14%6%6%10%12%17%8%43%21%-51%11%158%43%0.96 1.09 1.00 1.17 5.40 8.15 4.81 8.21 2.28 3.14 2.12 3.39 74%66%68%55%1.46 1.71 1.57 2.06 0.65 0.89 0.67 1.18 301260 38.94 2023/2/22 wind 31 4.2 32,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%4 433 R3/28F 518041 0755-83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597