深度报告-20230212-东方证券-苏州银行-002966.SZ-苏州银行首次覆盖报告_战略锚定中小零售_小而美的优质城商行_30页_992kb (1).pdf

002966.SZ|22Q3 5096 22H 28%0.8pct 22Q3 15 9/17pct 22 3 18%22 3 ROE 12.2%ROE 22-24 EPS 1.07/1.33/1.65 26.8%/24.2%/23.8%22-24 BVPS 9.78/10.86/12.17 23 PB 0.84 PB 9.14 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()10,364 10,829 12,084 13,607 15,355(%)10.0%4.5%11.6%12.6%12.8%()3,326 3,913 4,862 5,990 7,366(%)1.1%17.6%24.2%23.2%23.0%()2,572 3,107 3,938 4,890 6,052(%)4.0%20.8%26.8%24.2%23.8%0.77 0.93 1.07 1.33 1.65(%)0.7%0.8%0.8%0.9%1.0%(%)9.0%10.0%11.4%12.8%14.1%9.89 8.19 7.10 5.72 4.62 0.94 0.87 0.78 0.70 0.63 P/PPOP 0.86 0.79 0.78 0.70 0.63.2023 02 10 7.63 9.14 52/8.14/5.67/A 366,673/354,210 A 27,977/2023 02 12 1 1 3 12-0.54-3.05 9.24 22.61 0.31-5.26-2.17 34.11 300-0.85 2.21 11.41-11.5 021-63325888*6083 S0860514060001 BPU409 S0860522040001 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.6 1.4.7 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.11 3.14 3.1.14 3.2.15 3.3.16 4.18 4.1 ROE.18 4.2.19 4.3.19 4.4.20 4.5.21 4.6.22 5.24 5.1.24 5.2.25 6.27 3 1.5 2 5096 22Q3.5 3 22Q3.5 4-22Q3.6 5“5441”.7 6.8 7.8 8 GDP 2.27 2022.9 9.10 10.10 11.11 12 22H.12 13.14 14 22H.15 15 22H.15 16.15 17.15 18.16 19.16 20.17 21 2021.17 22.17 23 2021.18 24.18 25 2022.19 26.19 27 22H.19 28 22H.20 29 22H.20 30 22Q3.20 31 22Q3.20 32+22H.21 33.21 34.22 4 35 22H.22 36 22Q3.22 37 22Q3.22 38 22Q3.23 39 PB-ROE.26 1.6 2.11 3.12 4.13 5 ROE-22Q3.18 6.24 7.25 8.26 9.26 5 1.2011 22Q3 5096 1.1 2010 9 2011 2019 8 3 22Q3 5096 17 13 1 2 5096 22Q3 3 22Q3 Wind Wind 05000100001500020000250003000035000()05000100001500020000()2002 12 2004 12 2008 2 2008 12 2010 9 2010 12 2011 3 2015 12 2019 8 50 2021 4 2022 11 6 1.2 2022 3 38.06%20.04%14.25%100%4-22Q3 Wind 1.3 2011 2018 1 2011/7 2018/9 2014/12 2013 7 2014 11 7 2004/11 1986 7 1986 7 1993 6 1993 7 1999 4 1999 5 2002 11 2002 12 2004 10 2020/11 2018/9 2020/9 2008 6 2012 5 2019 10 Wind 2015 7 2020 2.0 1.4 2013 2021 5441 5 5441 Wind 8 2022 132 77.6%22H 1458 61.2%2011 2011 2012 22H 22H 38.8%2011 23.7pct 6 22H Wind 7 Wind 0500001000001500002000002500003000002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H()9 2.22H1 27.7%1 2.1 2022 GDP 2.4 6 GDP 8 GDP 2.27 2022 Wind 2022 4.4 2021 2025 40%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%012345 2022 GDP 10 9 2022 83.7 94.2%2022 1-11 1.7 9.3%2022 500 25 10 Wind 11 2022 52.4%2022 48-40-2002040608002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%11 2 2020/6“”“1”“”2020/12 2021 2023 1.1“80%”2020/12“”2021 2023“”2022/1 2022 2022“”5000 3500 2.2 2018 92.1%11 Wind 2015 02004006008001,0002016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31()12 3 2.0“”“”“”“”“”2022H 422 18%27.7%2022H 1.57%1 12 22H Wind 2022H 16.1%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%13 4“”14 3.22Q3 2015 9/17 22 3 18%3.1 2012 2020 700 2012 13 2020 700 Wind 2022H 2.22%3.30%2022H 25%01002003004005006007008002016H1 2017H1 2018 2020 15 14 22H 15 22H Wind Wind 16 Wind 3.2 22H 39%/43%17 Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50(%)3.00%3.20%3.40%3.60%3.80%4.00%02004006008001,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H()16 2021 IFC 22H 18.7%2022 22H 15.48%2015 2022H 904 36.9%2015 17 18 19 Wind Wind 3.3 2021 6.8+0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000()17 20 21 2021 22 Wind Wind 2022 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000()-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2019 2020H 2020 2021H 2021 18 4.22 3 ROE 12.2%ROE 4.1 ROE ROE ROE 2022 1-3 ROE 12.2%ROE ROE 2021 2022 8.6%vs4.5%,2021A 26.1%vs20.8%,2021A 5 ROE-22 北京 江苏 上海 宁波 南京 杭州 成都 长沙 重庆 贵阳 青岛 苏州/A 3.61%4.11%3.36%3.56%3.70%3.68%4.03%4.21%4.28%4.69%3.75%3.9 0%/A-1.94%-2.27%-1.95%-1.89%-2.22%-2.15%-2.09%-2.12%-2.58%-2.41%-2.20%-2.1 9%/A 1.67%1.85%1.42%1.68%1.48%1.53%1.94%2.09%1.70%2.28%1.55%1.7 0%/A 0.25%0.24%0.25%0.32%0.31%0.36%0.09%0.17%0.13%0.09%0.32%0.2 9%/A 0.28%0.50%0.35%0.76%0.76%0.46%0.40%0.50%0.37%0.21%0.54%0.5 1%/A-0.52%-0.54%-0.41%-0.96%-0.67%-0.60%-0.56%-0.75%-0.50%-0.61%-0.75%-0.7 8%/A-0.73%-0.75%-0.69%-0.61%-0.53%-0.81%-0.61%-0.89%-0.56%-0.92%-0.92%-0.5 9%ROA 0.82%1.02%0.83%1.06%1.03%0.84%1.07%0.85%0.92%0.96%0.66%0.9 0%13.72 13.91 13.12 13.78 14.48 15.77 15.27 14.66 13.12 11.57 15.30 1 3.5 7 ROE 11.25%16.55%11.93%16.08%15.77%15.61%18.51%13.89%12.64%11.93%10.16%1 2.2 1%ROA A Wind 23 2021 24 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 19 4.2 2022 22Q3 23%25 2022 26 21 Wind Wind 4.3 22 1.82%22 2.34%22 4.23%17 12 27 22H Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3-50%0%50%100%150%200%2013201420152016201720182019202020212022H 011223(%)20 28 22H 29 22H Wind Wind 4.4 22Q3 11.50%30 22Q3 31 22Q3 Wind Wind 0123456(%)01122334(%)0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%21 4.5 2012-2015 2019 22H+1.70%0.6%22H 1.12%2018 1.8pct 32+22H 33 Wind Wind 22H 1.57%2018 2.8pct 2020 22H 5.58%01234567(%)0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%20182019202020212022 22 34 35 22H Wind Wind 22Q3 532.50%4.69%2022 5 36 22Q3 37 22Q3 Wind Wind 4.6 22Q3 9.77%10.64%13.12%2021 4 50 99.99%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%20182019202020212022H 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0100200300400500600700(%)0.01.02.03.04.05.0(%)23 38 22Q3 Wind 02468101214(%)24 5.5.1 2022-2024 1)18%/14%/14%2)15%/14%/14%3)1.85%/1.82%/1.81%4)20%/18%/18%5)2018 6 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 17%13%18%14%14%13%11%15%14%14%13%18%14%13%13%13%16%15%13%13%2.22%1.91%1.85%1.82%1.81%2.28%1.98%1.80%1.76%1.76%-10%29%20%18%18%-17%16%17%13%13%1.38%1.11%0.86%0.85%0.84%25 0.67%0.27%0.08%0.10%0.10%1.76%1.49%0.93%0.76%0.65%0.88%0.72%0.46%0.38%0.33%3%12%10%12%12%Wind 7 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7525 7533 8352 9385 10572 15890 17209 18899 21305 23943 8365 9676 10546 11920 13371 945 1222 1466 1730 2042 1051 1352 1623 1915 2260 107 130 156 184 218 1818 1970 2265 2492 2741 10364 10829 12084 13607 15355 0.10%10.88%12.36%12.65%8.30%9.82%12.73%12.38%15.67%8.99%13.03%12.17%29.37%20.00%18.00%18.00%28.65%20.00%18.00%18.00%22.25%20.00%18.00%18.00%8.35%15.00%10.00%10.00%4.49%11.59%12.60%12.85%72.61%69.56%69.12%68.97%68.85%9.11%11.28%12.14%12.72%13.30%17.54%18.19%18.75%18.31%17.85%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%Wind 5.2 22-24 EPS 1.07/1.33/1.65 26.8%/24.2%/23.8%22-24 BVPS 9.78/10.86/12.17 23 PB 0.84 PB 9.14 26 39 PB-ROE 1 PB ROE 2023 Wind 2 PB-ROE Wind 2023 2 10 8 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E EPS 0.93 1.07 1.33 1.65 BVPS 9.68 9.78 10.86 12.17 7.63 PE 8.19 7.10 5.72 4.62 PB 0.79 0.78 0.70 0.63 0.28 0.32 0.40 0.50 3.67%4.23%5.25%6.50%-9.14 PE 9.8 8.5 6.9 5.5 PB 0.9 0.93 0.84 0.75 Wind 2023 2 10 9 ROE 2023/2/10 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2023E 2023E 002142.SZ 31.41 20.38 23.72 27.53 1.54 1.32 1.14 20.2%16.2%600926.SH 12.52 12.08 14.32 16.46 1.04 0.87 0.76 22.9%15.1%601009.SH 10.17 10.58 12.26 13.91 0.96 0.83 0.73 19.2%16.3%601838.SH 13.98 12.30 14.70 17.26 1.14 0.95 0.81 22.5%20.1%601128.SH 7.83 7.22 9.05 10.22 1.08 0.87 0.77 19.2%13.9%1.15 0.97 0.84 20.8%16.3%24.2%12.8%Wind 2023 2 10 0.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.39%11%13%15%17%19%21%PBROE 27 6.28:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 15,890 17,209 18,899 21,305 23,943 8,365 9,676 10,546 11,920 13,371 17.27%13.38%18.00%14.00%14.00%7,525 7,533 8,352 9,385 10,572 12.60%11.29%15.00%14.00%14.00%945 1,222 1,466 1,730 2,042 13.41%17.65%14.00%13.00%13.00%10,364 10,829 12,084 13,607 15,355 12.62%16.48%15.00%13.00%13.00%92 108 122 140 159 2.22%1.91%1.85%1.82%1.81%3,024 3,401 3,752 4,200 4,713 2.28%1.98%1.80%1.76%1.76%3,863 3,341 3,269 3,183 3,004-9.73%28.65%20.00%18.00%18.00%7,037 6,916 7,222 7,618 7,989-16.72%15.54%16.91%13.14%13.28%3,326 3,913 4,862 5,990 7,366 3.14%12.46%10.32%11.95%12.21%3,308 3,895 4,843 5,971 7,347 1.76%1.49%0.93%0.76%0.65%582 607 755 931 1,146 0.88%0.72%0.46%0.38%0.33%2,572 3,107 3,938 4,890 6,052 17.60%15.60%15.60%15.60%15.60%0.77 0.93 1.07 1.33 1.65 8.92 9.68 9.78 10.86 12.17 0.77 0.93 1.07 1.33 1.65:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 21,546 19,884 28,559 32,557 37,115 CAMEL 4,304 7,621 8,003 8,803 9,683 C:14.21%13.06%17.66%15.96%10.99%9,103 19,854 20,847 22,932 25,225 C:14.21%13.06%17.66%15.96%10.99%2,231 941 989 1,087 1,196 C:/17.25%16.65%15.63%15.18%14.87%181,034 203,752 239,942 273,128 311,276 C:/7.99%7.60%7.38%7.20%7.09%37,758 46,537 51,181 57,454 64,376 C:12.52 13.16 13.56 13.89 14.11-14,194 26,523 29,170 32,745 36,691 A:1.38%1.11%0.86%0.85%0.84%-91,213 95,831 105,396 118,311 132,567 A:291.74%422.91%542.00%565.00%575.00%388,068 453,029 515,226 581,279 656,281 A:571.78%898.76%898.76%898.76%898.76%5,376 7,260 7,987 8,785 9,664 A:4.02%4.63%4.66%4.80%4.83%26,613 27,564 30,321 33,353 36,688 A:/+6.68%5.41%4.40%4.42%4.43%0 0 0 0 0 E:ROA 0.66%0.69%0.76%0.84%0.92%14,298 8,114 8,926 9,818 10,800 E:ROAA 0.75%0.78%0.84%0.92%1.00%250,109 278,343 320,095 364,908 415,995 E:ROE 8.65%9.62%10.98%12.28%13.56%356,837 418,740 477,725 539,829 610,007 E:ROAE 8.96%9.96%11.45%12.77%14.14%3,333 3,333 3,667 3,667 3,667 E:RoRWA 0.96%0.97%1.08%1.19%1.31%10,829 10,829 10,829 10,829 10,829 E:29.18%31.40%31.05%30.87%30.69%2,504 2,504 2,504 2,505 2,505 E:9.11%11.28%12.14%12.72%13.30%8,795 9,710 10,952 12,469 14,341 E:31.11%30.04%30.04%30.04%30.04%1,501 1,643 1,643 1,643 1,643 L:72.38%73.20%74.96%74.85%74.83%31,231 33,922 37,502 41,450 46,274 L:/50.09%48.40%49.57%49.93%50.36%388,068 453,029 515,226 581,279 656,281 L:/71.01%67.17%67.76%68.36%68.96%29 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer