深度报告-20230210-平安证券-电力设备及新能源行业深度报告_国内大储市场_因地制宜_蓬勃向上_33页_2mb (1).pdf

2023 02 10 请 通 过 合 法 途径获 取本公 司研究 报告，如经由 未经许 可的渠 道获得 研究报 告，请 慎重 使用并 注意阅 读研究 报告尾 页的声 明内容。S1060517070004 PIXIU S1060122070042 zhangzhiy 2021/5.73/2.45GW 23%/24%2022 6.21GW/14.32GWh 153.5%2023 33.2GWh+124.8%2025 90.2GWh 2022-2025 CAGR 83%2022 7.2GWh 20.9GWh/2022 67.7GWh 2022 4/2023 10GWh 6 IRR 7%证券研究报告 2/33 PCS PCS IGBT EPC+PCS 1./2.3.EPS P/E 2023/2/9 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 300438 72.96 0.42 1.38 2.32 3.46 173.7 52.9 31.4 21.1 300014 85.16 1.54 1.67 3.25 4.83 55.3 51.1 26.2 17.6 300274 122.91 1.08 2.14 3.73 5.00 113.8 57.5 33.0 24.6 688248 55.94 0.30 0.38 0.86 1.32 186.5 148.2 64.8 42.3 002335 47.88 0.95 1.05 1.42 1.82 50.4 45.6 33.6 26.3 002837 35.79 0.63 0.54 0.77 1.04 56.8 66.7 46.2 34.4 002960 32.29 1.49 1.12 1.50 1.93 21.6 28.7 21.6 16.8 Wind wind 3/33.6 1.1.6 1.2.8 1.3.10 2025 90GWh.13 2.1.13 2.2.16 2.3 2023 30GWh.20 PCS.20 3.1.20 3.2.23.31.32 4/33 1.6 2.6 3 2021 25.4GW.6 4 2021.6 5 2021 5.7GW.7 6 2021.7 7 2022.7 8 2022.7 9 2022.8 10 2022.8 11.8 12 20.9 13.10 14.11 15 2022.11 16 2022.12 17“”.12 18.13 19 2021.13 20 2021.14 21 2022.15 22.15 23.15 24.16 25 2022.17 26 2022%.17 27 2022/MWh.17 28 2022/GWh.18 29 2022.18 30 2022 100MW/200MWh.19 31 100MW/200MWh IRR.19 32.20 33.21 34.21 35 2022.21 36 PCS 2021.22 37 PCS 2021.22 5/33 38 2021.22 39 2021.22 40.23 41.23 42.24 43.24 44.25 45.25 46.25 47.26 48.26 49 2022H1.26 50 2022H1.26 51.27 52.27 53 2022H1.27 54“”.27 55.28 56.28 57 2022H1.28 58 2022H1.28 59.29 60.29 61 2022H1.29 62 2022H1.29 63.30 64.30 65 PACK.30 66.32 67.32 6/33 1.1 1 2 2021 25.37GW 67.8%2021 24%2021 5.73GW 74.7%2.45GW 2021 76%3 2021 25.4GW 4 2021 CNESA CNESA MW%,34%,24%,22%,7%,6%,7%7/33 5 2021 5.7GW 6 2021 CNESA GGII MW%2022 2022 6.21GW/14.32GWh 153.5%45%44%10%3 10 7 2022 8 2022 CESA GWh%7.762GW/16.428GWh CESA 2022 44GWh 2022 44GWh 2022 2022 2023 2023 2022 20.93GWh 48%,41%,35%,24%5.930.2814.2113.191.130246810121416GW GWh,7.39,45%,7.23,44%,1.64,10%,0.16,1%8/33 9 2022 10 2022 MWh%1.2 11 20.9315.136.870.980.140510152025/GWh48%34%16%2%0%9/33 2021 15%4 20%10%2/12 20/h 2021.3 1 0%1 2021.6 50MW 10%15%2021.6 1 0%2 2021.9 8%1 0%2 2021.1 20%5%2 2021.11 1 0%2 2022.1 10%2022.1 1 0%2 2022.3 1 5%4 2022.3 5%2 2022.3 1 0%,1 5%4 2022.4 15%20%4 2022.5 15%3 2022.9 15%5%2 2022.10 1 0%1 5%2 2022.11 15%2 2022.11 1 0%2 2022.12 20%15%21(1 0%5%)2 2022.12 15%2 2022.12 10%2023.1 20%4 EnergyTrend+10/33 2021 2021 12 2022 6 13 1.3 2019-2020 300MW 2021 2021 11/33 14 CNESA MW 2022 15 2022 2022 44GWh 2GWh+4h 2022 5.0 3.9GWh 4 2022 0.8/kWh 12/33 16 2022 GWh 130GWh 2023 1 24 65GW 2h 2025 130GWh 5GW 50%17 GW 1GW 13/33 2025 90GWh 2.1 2022 45%44%Utility-Scale/Grid-Scale 2022 CNESA 2022 2021 18 19 2021 CNESA MW%14/33 20 2021 CNESA MW 2021 12+2022 48%2022 12 6.1%15/33 21 2022 20 2022 6 22 23()22.2GW/53.8GWh 20.0GW/47.4GWh 92%16/33 24(MW)(MWh)42 5132 9513 31 5060 15090 28 3065 8144 21 2151 4302 17 2000 4000 12 1617 3634 34 1453 4156 AGC 11 1100 2200 7 640 2760 13 5.5 8.6 216 22223 53808 CNESA 2.2 2022 29GWh 67.7GWh 2022 2 4 2022 4GWh 12GWh/8GWh 2023 17/33 25 2022 26 2022%4 AGC 2022 2022 3GWh 27 2022/MWh 314286296801020304050607080/GW/GWh6%28%66%18/33 28 2022/GWh+300-350/kW 8+6 2022 6 503MW 29 2022 AGC 19/33 250-350/Wh 300/Wh 10MW/20MWh 14850 2022 6 0.8 0.792/kWh 300 1900/2000/0.2/kWh 30 2022 100MW/200MWh 3000 3000 3000 3000 4000 1500 14850 2000 4800 1800 4752 2803 2091 1428 0 0 0 600 0 0 0 0 0 6403 19941 6428 7800 5800 6252 100MW/200MWh 6000 IRR 7%2000/15 2022 2h EPC 1.8 6000 IRR 7%7000 IRR 11%31 100MW/200MWh IRR IRR/%/5600 6000 6400 6800 7200 7600 8000/Wh 1.4 10%11%13%15%17%18%20%1.5 8%10%12%14%15%17%18%1.6 7%9%11%12%14%15%17%1.7 6%8%10%11%13%14%16%1.8 6%7%9%10%12%13%14%1.9 5%6%8%9%11%12%13%2.0 4%6%7%8%10%11%12%2.1 3%5%6%8%9%10%11%20/33 2.3 2023 30GWh 2022 37.63GW 21%2023 4.3 2023 65GW 2022 76.3GW 82%2022 100GW 2023 2023 70GW 2024/2025 84/100GW 2022 87.41GW 60.3%2023 2023 4.9 2023 100GW 2022 11 2023 26GW 2023 2023 30%115GW 2024/2025 26%24%145/180GW 2022 1/3 2023-2025 45%40%40%2022 98%99%2022 11.2%/2h/2023/2024/2025 13%/17%/21%2.1h/2.3h/2.5h 32 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E/GW 37.6 70 84 100.0/GW 29.1 51.8 58.0 71.9/GW 66.8 121.8 142.0 171.9/%11.2%13.0%17.0%21.0%/GW 7.5 15.8 24.1 36.1/h 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5/GWh 14.8 33.2 55.5 90.2 yoy/%124.8%67.0%62.6%CWEA 2023 33.2GWh 124.8%2025 90.2GWh 2022-2025 83%PCS 3.1 PCS 60%15%21/33 25%Pack PCS 33 Wind 2021 70.6GWh 2022 130GWh 171%34 35 2022 PCS PCS PCS 10.2 16.3 20.7 29.0 70.6 155.0 246.0 350.0 460.0 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%050100150200250300350400450500 GWh yoy%22/33 36 PCS 2021 37 PCS 2021 CNESA CNESA+PCS 2021 5 500-800MWh PCS 2023 PCS 38 2021 39 2021 CNESA CNESA 280Ah 0100200300400500600700 PCS/MW05001,0001,5002,0002,500 PCS/MW0100200300400500600700800/MWh05001,0001,5002,0002,500/MWh 23/33 40 GB/T 42288-2022 2023 7 1/Pack Pack/BMS Pack 41 3.2 3.2.1 24/33 2025 100GWh 280Ah 560Ah 2021 280Ah UL9540A 2022 11 10GWh 280Ah 2022 10 560Ah 1.792kWh 12000 6.5%2024Q2 46 4680 4695 2022 6 43.75 20GWh 46 2022 9 2025 46 20GWh 4680 42 43 Wind Wind/2021 CNESA 2022 50%80%RCT 2021 2022 2022/EPC 280Ah UL9540A 150Ah TV IEC 62619:2022 29.8243.5164.1281.62169.00242.830%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 20212022Q1-Q3 YOY%4.035.7115.2216.5229.0626.660%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%05101520253035YOY%25/33 44 45 Wind Wind 46 20GWh 20GWh 20GWh 10 17 3.2.2 PCS 2021 47GW 108800kW 150 2023 PCS IGBT PCS IGBT 2023 15GWh 20.9825.6933.0836.4256.9365.020%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%010203040506070 YOY%2.512.651.680.531.824.43-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%012345YOY%26/33 47 48 Wind Wind 49 2022H1 50 2022H1 Wind%Wind%EPC+3 EPC 2022 EPC EPC 320MW/429MWh 10.27 2022 31.26%17.30%EPC Pack EPC 2021 5(2021-2030)20GW 2022 12GWh 88.86103.69130.03192.86241.37222.240%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300 YOY%10.248.108.9319.5415.8320.61-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0510152025YOY%,59.33,50%(),28.77,24%,23.86,20%,4.01,3%,2.89,3%,65.09,53%,57.72,47%27/33 51 52 Wind Wind 53 2022H1 54 Wind%+PCS UPS UPS 2021 PCS 2021 2022 GW S iStorageE 400MWh 3.045.8211.1513.8511.060%20%40%60%80%100%120%0246810121416 YOY%0.140.430.871.431.360%50%100%150%200%250%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6YOY%,1.94,28%,1.49,21%,1.13,16%,0.94,13%,0.80,12%,0.71,10%28/33 55 56 Wind Wind 57 2022H1 58 2022H1 Wind%Wind%3.2.4 2022 2.5 68%29%2022 3.70 30%PUE 24.1234.3738.6941.6848.6636.430%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0102030405060 YOY%4.260.752.073.824.392.88-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%012345YOY%IDC,7.42,33%,5.71,26%,4.51,20%,4.14,19%,0.35,2%,19.13,86%,2.65,12%(),0.35,2%29/33 PUE 59 60 Wind Wind 61 2022H1 62 2022H1 Wind%Wind%+2%5%2023 GB/T 2022 Pack Pack 1000 GDP 7.8710.7013.3817.0322.2814.85-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0510152025 YOY%0.861.081.601.822.051.17-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00.51.01.52.02.5YOY%,3.79,43%,3.70,42%,0.25,3%,0.50,6%,0.48,6%,6.85,78%,1.88,22%30/33 50%2022 2,072.09 203.18%63 64 Wind Wind 65 PACK 14.7517.7722.7125.2538.6334.050%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530354045 YOY%3.233.443.624.305.304.160%5%10%15%20%25%0123456YOY%31/33 2023 33.2GWh+124.8%2025 90.2GWh 2022-2025 CAGR 83%6 IRR 7%PCS PCS IGBT EPC+PCS 32/33 66 2021 2022Q1-Q3/yoy/%/yoy/%/yoy/%/yoy/%300014 169.00 107.1%29.06 75.9%242.83 112.1%26.66 20.3%300438 56.93 56.3%1.82 242.9%65.02 66.9%4.43 170.2%300274 241.37 25.2%15.83-19.0%222.24 44.6%20.61 36.9%688248 13.85 24.3%1.43 64.3%11.06 50.1%1.36 162.1%002335 48.66 16.8%4.39 14.9%36.43 6.0%2.88 1.4%002837 22.28 30.8%2.05 12.9%14.85-1.2%1.17-22.8%002960 38.63 53.0%5.30 23.2%34.05 32.2%4.16 11.1%wind 67 EPS P/E 2023/2/9 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 300438 72.96 0.42 1.38 2.32 3.46 173.7 52.9 31.4 21.1 300014 85.16 1.54 1.67 3.25 4.83 55.3 51.1 26.2 17.6 300274 122.91 1.08 2.14 3.73 5.00 113.8 57.5 33.0 24.6 688248 55.94 0.30 0.38 0.86 1.32 186.5 148.2 64.8 42.3 002335 47.88 0.95 1.05 1.42 1.82 50.4 45.6 33.6 26.3 002837 35.79 0.63 0.54 0.77 1.04 56.8 66.7 46.2 34.4 002960 32.29 1.49 1.12 1.50 1.93 21.6 28.7 21.6 16.8 wind wind 1./2.3.:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 9 16 100033