深度报告-20230521-华创证券-制冷剂行业深度研究报告_三代配额期将至_供给侧收缩推动长周期上行_26页_2mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 05 21 1985 1987 R22 R22 R22 2008-2023 15 5 5 1 2009-2010 2 2013-2014(3)2017-2019 4 2021-2022 5 2023 R22 2013 10 R22 10 41%2025 2030 7 8%10 4.1%7 R22 2020-2022 3 2023 R32 R134a 24 1 2020-2022 2 ODP GWP R290 R1234yf R1234yf 10/2023 R22 18.18 29.5%26.1%20.7%R142b 0.87 28%22%13%F141b 2.11 68.9%R22 S0360522050001 S0360522080004%()7 0.00()1,148.68 0.12()1,055.81 0.15%1M 6M 12M-19.4%-18.4%1.3%-15.1%-22.1%2.7%-13%4%21%38%22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/052022-05-232023-05-19 300 2009 1210 1 1985 1985 CFCs 1987 2 R22 2008-2023 15 5 5 1 2009-2010 2 2013-2014(3)2017-2019 4 2021-2022 5 2023 R22 2013 10 R22 10 41%2025 2030 7 8%10 4.1%7 R22 3 1 50%R32 R125 R410a R152a R134a R143a 2.25/3.83/3.08/2.40/3.64/3/6 22.86 15.4 11.02 7.44 R32 R125 R410a R152a R134a R143a 3.4/10/6.5/4/5/6.7/6 50.25 33.7 26.3 18.41 8/82.88 45.9 38.53 22.98 4 10/ODP GWP 1985 10 R22 10 10 10 2009 1210 3.6 40.8 10 R22.9.14 R32 R134a.14.17.18.20.22.23 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3 2021.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.10 9.10 10 R22.11 11 R22.11 12 R22.11 13 2023 R22.11 14 R22/.13 15 PVDF-R142b/.13 16 F141b/.14 17.15 18 2022.15 19 2022.15 20 2022.16 21 2022.16 22 R32.16 23 R134a.17 24.17 25.18 26 R32 R134a 2020-2022.18 27 R32/.19 28 R134a/.19 29 30%47%62%.19 30/.20 31.21 32 HFO-1234yf.21 2009 1210 5 33 R1234yf 11.08/.21 2009 1210 6 CFCs HCFCs HFCs HFOs ODP GWP ODP Ozon Depletion Potential ODP CFCs Cl ODP GWP Global Warming Potential GWP CO 2 CO 2 GWP 1 1 ODP GWP CFCs ODP 1 4000-HCFCs ODP GWP F141b 0.11 723 R142b 0.057 1980 R22 0.034 1700()+R123 0.01 79 R124 0.02 527+HFCs ODP GWP R134 0 1100+R134a 0 1430+R143 0 353+R143a 0 4470 R245fa 0 1030+R365mfc 0 794+R227ea 0 3220+R236cb 0 1340+R236fa 0 9810+R245ca 0 693+R43-10mee 0 1640 R32 0 675+R125 0 3500+R41 0 92 R152 0 53+R152a 0 124+R404a 0 3940 2009 1210 7 R407c 0 1620 R410a 0 1725()HFOs ODP GWP R1234yf 0 1 R1234ze 0 1 R-227ea 0+R-236fa 0 HF R22 R142b PTFE PVDF FKM 2 78%16%6%2022 2.22+2%8664-4%2686+2%2009 1210 8 3 2021 4 HFCs wind 5 6 wind wind 40 40 1985 CFCs 1987 1987 1986 CFCs 1988 50%1994 1992 CFCs CTC TCA 1996 1994 1990 4 34 HCFC 1999 HCFC 2020 HCFCs 2030 2007,78%,16%,6%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%050001000015000200002500020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022:YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050010001500200025003000350020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022:YOY-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01000200030004000500060007000800090001000020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022:YOY-2009 1210 9 3 2040 2030 2016 18 HFCs 2036 85%HFCs 2045 80%HFCs 7 98 2006 F-gas 2006/40/EC 2011 1 1 GWP 150 2017 1 1 GWP 150 2014 F-gas 2014/517/EC,2020 1 1 GWP 2500 2025 1 1 GWP 750 1989 1991 2021 2009 2021 10 R22 2030 1987 1989 2020 2009-2010 2013 2020 HCFCs 99.5%2030 2025 67.5%2030 97.5%2.5%2040 2009 1210 10 8 2010 75%-2015 90%10%2020 99.50%35%2025 99.50%67.50%2030 100%97.50%2040 100%100%2018 2013 8 2014 2015 2019 2020 2023 1.3%14.1%18%31.5%50%F141b R142b R22 2023 F141b R142b R22 2013 77%67.8%41%2030-2040 2.5%9 R22 R22 R22 R22 1936 R22 R22 R22 R22 R22 R22-0510152025303540452013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023141b 142b R22 2009 1210 11 PTFE-R22 61%PTFE 17%15%6%10 R22 11 R22 2023 R22 2013 41%/46.4%/65.4%2014 2015 2019 2020 2023 1.8%11%13.5%27.1%41%2014 2015 2019 2020 2023 1.2%9.5%12.7%35%46.4%12 R22 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 71.4 71.4 77.9 80.1 80.1 80.1 45.27 50.71 52.99 49.19 53.96 58.108 27.43 27.43 26.68 22.48 22.48 22.48 8.53 8.53 8.45 8.91 8.91 8.91 9.92 9.31 9.57 7.98 7.76 9.65 6.73 5.54 5.64 4.25 3.89 3.66 12.17 13.36 12.6 9.32 9.68 9.91 17.84 23.28 26.31 26.71 31.48 35.63 2013 2023 29.5%26.1%20.7%13 2023 R22 9547 4717 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 12 53574 31058 8622 4053 37600 27478 39176 28431()10714 866 8291 6574 9561 5050 3928 3018 834 661 R22 2008-2023 R22 15 5/2008-2009H1 R22 2008 1.2/2009 7000/42%2009-2010 2009 2009H2-2011H1 R22 2009 7000/2.8/300%8000/2009 410a HF 2011H2-2013Q1 R22 2.8/0.88/69%1700/R410a 2011 R22 HF 2013-2014H1 R22 0.88/1.4/59%6100/2013 2014H2-2016Q1 R22 1.4/0.85/60%2400/R22 2017-2019Q1 R22 0.85/2.25/165%11000/2021 9-10 R22 1 2.6/29700/2023 R22 1.6/2/59%10950/2023 R22-19%2023/4/30 R22 2/15 62%2009 1210 13 14 R22/Wind R22 R22-R22 7 2023 41%2025 67.5%2030 97.5%7 8%10 4.1%7 R22 R142b PVDF R142b R142b PVDF 2021 R142b R142b PVDF PVDF R142b 46 20/R142b R142b-PVDF PVDF R142b 2022 R142b 2/2021 15 PVDF-R142b/wind-10010203040502016/11/17 2017/11/17 2018/11/17 2019/11/17 2020/11/17 2021/11/17 2022/11/17PVDF-R142b R142b PVDF 2009 1210 14 F141b F141b PU PS F141b 2011-2018 F141b 2019 1 1 F141b 2023 7 1 F141b 2023 F141b 2.11 2013 77%5 F141b F141b 2.2/5 47%16 F141b/2012-2013 10 R32 R134a R125 R410a 2013 2009-2011 ODP 0 R32 R134a R125 R143a R410a R407c R507a R410a 50wt%R32+50wt%R125 R407c R32 R125 R134a 23wt%25wt%52wt%R32 R134a R32 R32 R134a R410a R32 R410a R32 R410a R22 050001000015000200002500030000350002017/1/1 2018/1/1 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 F141b 2009 1210 15 17 R22 R410A R32 ODP 0.05 0 0 GWP 1700 2100 675 A1,A1,A2,g/mol 86.47 72.58 52.02 C-40.8-51.4-51.7 C 96 70.5 78.1 MPa 4.974 4.81 5.78 1.19 1 0.71 0.71 1 1.41 R32 63.6%R410a 2010 R410a 40%R410a 2011 R410a R32 2012 11 GWP 2022 64%R32 R32 R410a 37.5%R22 62.5%18 2022 19 2022 R134a R12 1999 R134a 2002 R134a 2022 71%R134a R134a 99%R32,63.60%R410a,31.60%R22,3.20%R290,1.90%R410a,37.50%R22,62.50%2009 1210 16 20 2022 21 2022 R32 R134a R32 0.43kg R410a 0.45kg R134a 0.8kg R410a 0.3kg 2023-2025 4%/4%/4%1%/1%/1%4%/3%/7%R32 2023-2025 26.50/27.53/28.16 46.7 57%/59%/60%2023-2025 R134a 2023-2025 14.24/14.30/14.46 33.5 42%/43%/43%2023-2025 2022 22 R32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 32.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 18.3 19.2 24.4 26.1 26.5 27.5 28.2 56%41%52%56%57%59%60%18.3 19.2 24.4 26.1 26.5 27.5 28.2 11.0 11.5 17.1 18.3 19.0 20.4 21.1 4.2 4.5 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.7 7.0 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.2 4.5 5.6 6.1+6.1 5.4 8.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.3 7.7 7.3 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.1 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.7 5.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 R134a,99%R1234yf,1%R134a,71%R1234yf,29%2009 1210 17 23 R134a 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 32.0 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5 14.0 14.4 15.7 13.7 14.2 14.3 14.5 44%43%47%41%42%43%43%14.0 14.4 15.7 13.7 14.2 14.3 14.5 6.5 7.2 7.9 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 4.4 5.2 5.8 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 8.5 5.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 2016 2011-2013 HFCs 2019 HFCs 2036 HFCs 15%2020-2022 HFCs 2024 HFCs 2029 2045 HFCs 20%2028 2032 24 HFC 2011-2013 2011-2013 2020-2022 2024-2026 HFC CO2 100%HFC CO2 100%HFC CO2 100%HFC CO2 100%HFC 2024-2026 HCFC 1989 2.8%CFC+1989 HCFC 1989 2.8%CFC+1989 HCFC 2009 2010 HCFC 2009 2010 HCFC N/A N/A 2024 2028 2019 10%2020 5%2029 10%2032 10%2024 40%2025 35%2035 30%2037 20%2029 70%2029 70%2040 50%2042 30%2034 80%2034 80%2045 80%2047 85%2036 85%2036 85%2018 2020-2022 2024 1 HFCs 65%+2020-2022 2 2009 1210 18 GWP 25/R32 12 5 6.5 1.2 R134a 6 6.5 2 0 R125 4 4 4 0.5 3 R32 2020-2022 R134a 2020-2022 26 R32 R134a 2020-2022 2023 R32 R134a 2023/5/5 R32 R134a 1.5/2.43/+13.2%/+3.2%+867.7%/+202%R32 5%R134a 15%2023 2023-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2012/8/18 2013/8/18 2014/8/18 2015/8/18 2016/8/18 2017/8/18 2018/8/18 2019/8/18 2020/8/18 2021/8/18 2022/8/18R22 R32 R125 R134a 2009 1210 19 27 R32/28 R134a/R22 R32 R134a R125 9 30%47%62%50%29 30%47%62%Wind 2023/5/13 10 1 20/8-10 50%2013 2014 50%R32 R125 R410a R152a R134a R143a 2.25/3.83/3.08/2.40/3.64/3/6 22.86 15.4(10000)(5000)0500010000150002000025000050001000015000200002500030000350002014/1 2016/1 2018/1 2020/1 2022/1 R32-R32(5000)050001000015000200002500001000020000300004000050000600002014/1 2016/1 2018/1 2020/1 2022/1 R134a R134a0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2014/1 2015/1 2016/1 2017/1 2018/1 2019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1 2023/1 2009 1210 20 11.02 7.44 R32 R125 R410a R152a R134a R143a 3.4/10/6.5/4/5/6.7/6 50.25 33.7 26.3 18.41 8/R1234yf 10/8/82.88 45.9 38.53 22.98 30/R32 R125 R134a R410a R152a R143 2.25 3.83 3.64 3.08 2.4 3 22.86 15.4 11.02 7.44 8 8 8 8 8 8 82.88 45.9 38.53 22.98 3.4 10 5 6.5 4 6.7 50.25 33.7 26.3 18.41 R125 10/2021 R290 R1234yf R1234ze ODP 0 GWP CO 2 GWP 1 CO 2 R134a CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 R290 R290 ODP 0 GWP 0 r290 2p p HFO-1234yf R134a HFO-1234yf 2007 CF3CF=CH2 ODP 0 GWP 4 R1234yf 11 R1234yf R134a R134a HFO-1234yf 2009 1210 21 31/0.8 HFO-1234yf HFO-1234ze 3.5/0.6 HFO-1234yf 0.5/HFO-1336mzz-Z 0.5 HFO-1234yf 0.3 HFO-1234yf 0.5 HFO-1234ze 1 HCFO-1234zd 1 HFO-1233zd 1 HFO-1234yf 2/HFO-1234yf 1.3/HFO-1234ze 1 HCFO-1233zd 2018 R1234yf 6 1 2 3 5 R1234yf 6 32 HFO-1234yf 2018 5 11.08/5 R1234yf 5 R22 700-900 14.8%R1234yf 11.08/33 R1234yf 11.08/(/)/0.44 0.7 0.31 2009 1210 22 R22 1.33 1 1.33 14.80%11.08 R32 1.4 R134a 2.2 GWP R290 R1234yf R1234yf R1234yf 10/10/1 1998 1958 107.24 68.23 48.07 13.99 4.69 0.48 20 48.5 339.58 1 CPU PUE PUE 5000 1000 3M+2 0.8 R1234yf R1234ze 3.5 2 2001 6F LiFSi FEP PVDF 5000 FEP+5000 PVDF 6000 LiPF6+100 PF 5 500 LiFSi 1.44 R22 0.42 R142b 2009 1210 23 3.56 F141b 2022 5.25%18.23%55.05%R134a 6.5 R125 5.2 R32 4 R143a 1 3 2004 2021 8 13.5 3%3%2023 3.48 4 2023 19 60.58 40 24 4.8 HFP 2 R1234yf 1.3 R1234ze 1 R1233zd 1 18 4 6 4 1987 2007 2020 HF 2023 R22 R142b 53574 1882 29.5%21.6%1 2 3 2009 1210 24 4 6 2022 2019“”2021“”2 2022 2 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2009 1210 25 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 26(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522