深度报告-20230528-华创证券-白云机场-600004.SH-深度研究报告_中国特色估值体系下如何理解白云机场-粤港澳核心枢纽重拾成长逻辑_上调评级至_强推__35页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 05 28 600004 20.3 13.75 1 2 3 4 2025 5 1 2019 2.2 3 17 9 2 2019 7339 7154 30%70%18%76%T3 1.4 3 2019 6 13%5.8%8%4 19 36.2%26.0%17.9%1 2018 T2 2018-19 9.8 19.2 4 17 20 18-19 57 103 2 2020 2019 359 300 1/3 3 2019 100%1871 200 300 10.7 16 120%2246 12.8 19.2 4 5 GTC 25%2018 T2 20-22 13.0%1.1%5.7%1 2023-25 6.1 19.2 24.1 7.1 20.2 25.0 2 2025 20 PE 482 20.3 48%ReportFinancialIndex 021-20572539 S0360516090002 S0360522100002 S0360522070003 玥 010-63214633()236,671.83()236,671.83()325.42()325.42(%)35.18()7.28 12/16.70/11.78(12)600004 2022 2023 23Q1 2023-04-20-13%3%18%34%22/05 22/08 22/10 23/01 23/03 23/052022-05-302023-05-26 300 600004 2009 1210 2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()3,971 7,424 9,384 10,338(%)-23.3%87.0%26.4%10.2%()-1,071 614 1,924 2,408(%)-163.9%157.3%213.5%25.2%()-0.45 0.26 0.81 1.02()-30 53 17 14()1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 2023 5 26 600004 2009 1210 1 2 3 4 2025 5 2023-25 6.1 19.2 24.1 7.1 20.2 25.0 2025 20 PE 482 20.3 48%600004 2009 1210 4.7.9.9 3.12.15 1.15 2.17.19 1.19 2.20.22.22 1 2018.22 2 2018 T2+.23 3.24 4.25.26 1.26 2.27.29.31.31 600004 2009 1210 5 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.9 5.10 6.10 7+.10 8-.11 9.12 10.13 11.13 12 2019.14 13.14 14.14 15.14 16.15 17.16 18.17 19.18 20+ASK.18 21.18 22 2019.19 23 2019.19 24 2019.20 25 2019.20 26.20 27+19.21 28+19.21 29 2017.22 30 2017.22 31 2017.23 32 2023.23 33 2017-2019.25 600004 2009 1210 6 34.25 35.26 36 2019.27 37 T1 2019.27 38 Tiffany&Co.28 39 GUCCI.28 40.29 41.29 42.29 43.30 44 2019.30 45.31 600004 2009 1210 7 ROE 1 2017 2017 2017 1 2014 15 2010-2019 195%13%2010-2015 123%17%2019 1300 8500 2016 2 19 5000 600004 2009 1210 8 8000 2018 2 2 3 4 2025 600004 2009 1210 9 2017 4 1 2019 7339 11 3 2020 2022 23 1-4 2611 1882 19 36%79%3 4 Wind 7%43%2022 58%GDP 0.6%6.0%10.8%GDP 15 2007 2017 1 2 19 20 7,339 4,377 60%4,026 55%2,611 36%1,882 79%7,615 3,048 40%3,221 42%1,418 19%1,329 53%5,293 3,792 72%3,636 69%2,156 41%1,576 91%10,001 3,451 35%3,264 33%1,270 13%1,363 54%7,154 884 12%135 2%566 8%1,010 40%600004 2009 1210 10 5 1 2019 2 2 1 2019 7339 7154 30%+70%18%76%6 7+资料来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券 资料来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券 21.2 21.6 18.5 2.2%2.3%1.9%29.0 10.0 10.5 13.0 7.8 24.0%8.3%8.6%10.8%6.4%2.4 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.2 16.3%7.6%5.4%6.0%8.0%12.4 9.1 13.4 15.1 6.7 5.600.6%010002000300040005000600070008000 010002000300040005000600070008000 600004 2009 1210 11 2 2021 9 3 4 8 8-3 T3 1.4 2020 9 27 42.2 T3 14.4 T2 24.2 190 2030 77.5 1.2 380 2045 87 1.4 600 2025 600004 2009 1210 12 9 3 1 3 24 2+2 2015 7000 16-18 1.4%2.2%1.8%2.9%3.3%2.5%2016 8 650 3800 2022 11 T2 2024 1.2 1000 600004 2009 1210 13 10 11 2 2019 2.2 3 7 3.6 600004 2009 1210 14 12 2019 13 资料来源：机场官网，华创证券 综合测算 资料来源：深圳特区报，机场官网，华创证券 综合测算 2020 0.9 3600 2017 2000 2017 2019 6255 4634 3100 1.4 2019 8511 4435 1.29 14 15 资料来源：百度地图，华创证券 资料来源：百度地图，华创证券+8550 2025 7200 1 2 1.3 4000 600004 2009 1210 15 9000 2045 5000 8000 GDP 16 1 2020 30 60 10 15 350/1 2025 35%2030 45%2045 55%1 a T3 b T3 T1 T2 2.4 1.1 1.2 29.0 10.0 7.8 600004 2009 1210 16 c 3 T1 T2 22 18 17 2 a b c T3 d 600004 2009 1210 17 18 30 60 350/1 2 1-2012-2019 57 110 93%9.8%63%7.2%57%6.6%+ASK 2010 16.4%2019 31.6%30.2%36.5%36.1%41.7%600004 2009 1210 18 19 20+ASK 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券 2 2018 2010-19 6.8 14.7%25.5%30%1.4 4000 21 600004 2009 1210 19 1 4 2019 688 507 66 51 1004 517 151 115 459 399 22 2019 2019 6 13%5.8%8%23 2019 020040060080010001200 600004 2009 1210 20 49.0%24.8%11.4%8.1%2.5%36.8%19.1%17.1%13.6%24 2019 25 2019 资料来源：民航预先飞行管理系统，华创证券 资料来源：民航预先飞行管理系统，华创证券 Flight AI 1-5 5 20 13.9%40.1%59.7%70.1%73.1%5.6%16.9%30.2%42.7%46.3%10.8%19.8%27.9%41.2%46.3%15%30%+8%26 Flight AI 2 4+37.2%30.8%19.9%36.2%26.0%17.9%4+53.2%49.9%29.0%51.1%46.1%26.5%5.1-5.20 10.8%19.8%27.9%41.2%46.3%15.0%23.8%22.2%30.5%31.8%5.6%16.9%30.2%42.7%46.3%7.8%8.3%8.8%8.6%7.9%13.9%40.1%59.7%70.1%73.1%600004 2009 1210 21 27+19 28+19 资料来源：Wind，华创证券 资料来源：Wind，华创证券 600004 2009 1210 22 1 2018 2018 2017 4 82 25 200+29 2017 1 17 10.2 67 17 716 7286 1/10 6-7 30 2017 2 2018 T2 T1 1300 1.5 7853 1.69 0.82 14%36%3,472 82 235 2,564 55 216 1,589 4 25 67 38%6.5 4%4 2%1 0.60%100 56%178.5 600004 2009 1210 23 31 2017 3+2 2018 T2+2018 9.8 57 141%2019 19.2 103 81%17-19 4 T2 1 T2 2018 T1 T2 1100 T1 400 T2 700 T2 3544 T1 1300 5944 3.6 6845 T1 1777 T2 1124 32 2023 2 1300 1589.41 0.82 15002 2564.45 5.85 14.00%7853 3471.53 2.26 36.20%1777 400 3544 1124 6845T1T2 600004 2009 1210 24 3 2020 1 22 6 a 2020 2.96 b 2021 1 1 i)2021 Y 2019 12 t-1 19 80%t-1 t-1 19 80%ii R Y 19 0-1 1 1 T1 T2 4 c T1 T2 29 4 25 2024 4+3 T2 26 1 2 23 1 118 19 1 1765.2 3.9 118 1-3 120 84 1 2019 359 312 103 1/3 300 600004 2009 1210 25 33 2017-2019 4 38%34 2019 100%1871 200 37.4 14.2 10.7 300 56.1 21.3 16.0 120%2246 200 44.9 17.1 12.8 300 67.4 25.6 19.2 130%2433 200 48.7 18.5 13.9 300 73.0 27.7 20.8/T2 3.89 39.00%T2 2.83 42.00%T2 T2 4.24 42.00%2018 7 31 35.00%2018 8 1 3.95 35.00%T2 T1 600004 2009 1210 26 35 1 1 GTC 25%2023 5 9 GTC 5+3 2023 5 13 2028 5 12 3 3.98 5000 1 20%3.98 20%3.98*1 20%*0.5 2 20%6%20%*1+6%+20%*50%20%*1-20%*50%10%2019 7339 2023.5.13-2024.5.12 19 4.51 20%2 2024.5.13-2025.5.12 4.78 3-5 12 5.07 5.37 5.70 25.44 2017 5 3.6 3.82 4.04 4.29 4.54 20.29 25%100 150 200 250 300 35080%1,497 5.7 8.5 11.4 14.2 17.1 19.9 90%1,684 6.4 9.6 12.8 16.0 19.2 22.4 100%1,871 7.1 10.7 14.2 17.8 21.3 24.9 110%2,058 7.8 11.7 15.6 19.6 23.5 27.4 120%2,246 8.5 12.8 17.1 21.3 25.6 29.9 130%2,433 9.2 13.9 18.5 23.1 27.7 32.4 140%2,620 10.0 14.9 19.9 24.9 29.9 34.8 150%2,807 10.7 16.0 21.3 26.7 32.0 37.3 600004 2009 1210 27 36 2019 2 5 11 32+X 2023 5 1 2025 12 31 T3 T1 2.858 2019 7339 2023.5.1-2024.4.30 19 3.24 20%2024.5.1-2025.4.30 3.44 8 2025.5.1-2025.12.31 2.43 3.64 2018 58 1-4 2.6 2.99 3.44 3.95 10 3.79 16.77 37 T1 2019 T1 T1 376 T1 T1 LED T2 GTC 25%2 2022 Tiffany&Co.Louis Vuitton Gucci 4.51 3.6 4.78 3.82 5.07 4.04 5.37 4.29 5.70 4.54 25.44 20.29 3.24 2018.7.1-2019.6.30 2.60 3.44 2019.7.1-2020.6.30 2.99 2.43 2020.7.1-2021.6.30 3.442021.7.1-2022.6.30 3.95 3.79 9.10 16.77 600004 2009 1210 28 2023 5 2023 144 38 Tiffany&Co 39 GUCCI 资料来源：白云机场公众号，华创证券 资料来源：白云机场公众号，华创证券 600004 2009 1210 29 2018 T2 19 11.7%60.8 20-22 13.0%1.1%5.7%40 2018 T2 2018 2022 10168 2017 25.6%41 42 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券 2018 2018 1006+298%2019 56.3%20 2017 35.5 2018 30.1 19 38.4 40 40.19 54.42 60.76 52.85 52.28 49.29 35.41%11.65%-13.02%-1.08%-5.71%18.46 20.85 21.05 16.41 17.36 17.05 12.94%1.01%-22.06%5.82%-1.84%4.51 12.56 15.59 15.50 15.54 14.04 178.69%24.15%-0.55%0.25%-9.67%4.62 4.28 5.15 3.98 3.98 3.70-7.34%20.28%-22.61%-0.16%-6.98%2.99 2.80 3.51 3.60 2.57 2.45-6.39%25.41%2.64%-28.59%-4.90%1.84 2.62 2.29 1.35 1.49 1.41 42.07%-12.61%-40.91%10.03%-4.79%1.14 3.36 4.39 3.72 3.65 2.62 194.83%30.42%-15.31%-1.69%-28.27%6.64 7.97 8.79 8.29 7.68 8.03 19.97%10.37%-5.75%-7.26%4.45%600004 2009 1210 30 43 2019 T2 44 2019 253 1,006 1,573 1,462 1,395 1,157 298.0%56.3%-7.1%-4.6%-17.0%8,990 30,304 60,361 59,522 55,544 47,052 237.1%99.2%-1.4%-6.7%-15.3%35.5 30.1 38.4 40.7 39.8 40.7 600004 2009 1210 31 2023-25 6.1 19.2 24.1 7.1 20.2 25.0 2025 20 PE 482 20.3 48%45 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 7,339 4,377 4,026 2,611 6,309 7,994 8,735 5.2%-40.4%-8.0%-35.1%141.6%26.7%9.3%5,467 4,119 3,957 2,530 5,467 6,123 6,490 4.2%-24.7%-3.9%-36.1%116.1%12.0%6.0%1,871 258 69 81 842 1,871 2,246 8.1%-86.2%-73.3%18.3%935.5%122.2%20.0%23.18 14.29 15.67 12.97 18.35 25.86 30.69 6.85 2.96 1.23 1.45 4.38 10.81 14.83 103 108 113 119 137 164 197 81.4%5.0%5.0%5.0%15.0%20.0%20.0%19.22 2.78 0.78 0.97 11.51 30.70 44.21 96.1%-85.5%-72.0%24.2%1090.8%166.7%44.0%5.14 2.22 0.92 1.09 3.28 8.11 11.12 6.83 6.83 8.44 5.72 6.98 7.74 8.21 20.7%0.0%23.6%-32.3%22.0%11.0%6.0%5.12 5.12 6.33 4.29 5.23 5.81 6.16 9.50 4.50 6.00 5.80 7.00 7.31 7.65 7.13 3.38 4.50 4.35 5.25 5.48 5.74 55.52 37.96 36.13 26.74 55.89 67.98 72.69-6.5%-31.6%-4.8%-26.0%109.0%21.6%6.9%59.72 52.85 52.28 49.29 58.64 60.21 62.88 9.7%-11.5%-1.1%-5.7%19.0%2.7%4.4%10.00-2.50-4.06-10.71 6.14 19.24 24.08 600004 2009 1210 32 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2,227 3,022 5,062 7,984 3,971 7,424 9,384 10,338 0 11 12 7 4,929 5,864 6,021 6,288 902 1,496 2,081 2,317 100 148 186 207 11 16 18 19 72 74 94 93 60 71 74 78 319 431 446 465 6 3 5 6 46 45 56 57 278 486 683 750 112 102 49 48 3,484 5,105 7,935 11,161-6-10-10-5 0 0 0 0 0-1-1-1 591 591 591 591 0 0 0 0 18,651 18,042 17,479 16,959 104 50 62 68 611 611 611 611 60 30 40 45 335 302 272 244-1,449 830 2,624 3,287 3,269 3,266 3,264 3,263 4 10 10 10 23,457 22,812 22,217 21,668 1 2 2 2 26,941 27,917 30,152 32,829-1,446 838 2,632 3,295 0 0 0 0-354 205 644 807 17 5 6 8-1,092 633 1,988 2,488 858 865 927 985-21 19 64 80 124 231 293 322-1,071 614 1,924 2,408 31 58 73 80 NOPLAT-1,007 710 2,025 2,525 4,450 4,450 4,450 4,450 EPS()-0.45 0.26 0.81 1.02 249 249 249 249 1,187 1,399 1,501 1,588 6,916 7,257 7,499 7,682 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-23.3%87.0%26.4%10.2%2,616 2,616 2,616 2,616 EBIT-204.2%170.5%185.4%24.7%2,616 2,616 2,616 2,616-163.9%157.3%213.5%25.2%9,532 9,873 10,115 10,298 17,191 17,804 19,729 22,138-24.1%21.0%35.8%39.2%218 240 308 393-27.5%8.5%21.2%24.1%17,409 18,044 20,037 22,531 ROE-6.2%3.4%9.8%10.9%26,941 27,917 30,152 32,829 ROIC-8.1%5.5%14.0%15.5%35.4%35.4%33.5%31.4%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 16.5%15.9%14.3%12.7%869 1,643 2,822 3,697 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 523 2,179 3,432 3,885 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 8-10-3-4 380-609-586-231 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3-52 103 124 90 99 58 69 77 11-20-145-43 60 53 54 55-808-796-795-794 5 4 4 4-630-802-802-802()-46 0 0 0-0.45 0.26 0.81 1.02-132 6 7 8 0.37 0.69 1.19 1.56 598-52 13 19 7.26 7.52 8.34 9.35-45 0 0 0-47-138-94-101 P/E-30 53 17 14 0 0 0 0 P/B 2 2 2 2 690 86 107 120 EV/EBITDA 196 14 8 7 600004 2009 1210 33 2016 2021 21 2020 21 2019 2018 2017 2020 2020 21 2021 玥 2021 2021 2023 600004 2009 1210 34 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 600004 2009 1210 35(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522