深度报告-20230117-华安证券-冠豪高新-600433.SH-老牌特种纸领军_横纵延伸进入成长新纪元_25页_2mb.pdf

主要观 点：Table_Summary 1993 21Q3 60wt 60 22 12 Suzano 40 820 Arauco 156wt UPM 210wt 23Q1 1 24 30wt+6wt 116wt 2 61.2wt 24 2024“”“”22-24E 3.85/5.39/6.44+177.6%/40.1%/19.4%PE 19.5X/13.9X/11.7X“”Table_Profit:2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7398 8522 8864 10649%13.9%15.2%4.0%20.1%139 385 539 644%-56.4%177.6%40.1%19.4%18.7%16.3%20.0%19.6%ROE%2.8%7.3%9.3%10.0%0.08 0.21 0.29 0.35 P/E 61.25 19.49 13.92 11.66 P/B 1.80 1.42 1.29 1.16 EV/EBITDA 10.27 1.80 1.22 1.44 wind Table_StockNameRptType 600433/Table_Rank 2023-01-17 Table_BaseData 4.07 12/4.89/2.76 1,844 1,439%78.04 78 61 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010521070001 Table_CompanyReport-52%-36%-20%-5%11%1/22 4/22 7/22 10/22冠豪高新 沪深300Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 2/25 1.5 1.1.6 1.2.9 2.10 2.1&.11 2.2.13 2.3.15 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.19 3.3.20 4.22.23.24 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 3/25 1.5 2.5 3 2013.6 4 2013.6 5 2021.6 6 2020.6 7%.7 8.7 9.7 10.8 11 2019.8 12%/.8 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.9 17.10 18 2010-2020.10 19.10 20 2019.11 21.11 22.11 23.12 24 2018.12 25.12 26 2015-2020.13 27 2011-2019.13 28.14 29.14 30 21 5.4.14 31 2023E 1771.14 32.14 33 2021 2843.14 34.15 35 2011-2021.15 36 2020.15 37.16 38.16 39.16 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 4/25 40.17 41.18 42.18 43.18 44.18 45“”.19 46.19 47.20 48.20 49.21 50 22-25.21 51 22.21 52.22 53.22 54 2019 PE-TTM.23 55 2017.23 56 PE.23 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 5/25 1 1993 1996 2003 2009 2020 2021 2022“”30 6 4 61.2 1 50%1/3 2 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 6/25 1.1 2021 73.98+13.9%22Q1-3 58.89+8.1%2020 3.18+86.7%2021 1.39-56.4%1.62 22Q1-3 2.52+30.6%3 2013 4 2013 2021 52.6%2020 83.5%21 52.6%19.3%/12.4%21 5.85%5 2021 6 2020 9 2017 5.1%2021 9.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%020406080100 YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5 YoY52.6%19.3%12.4%6.2%3.6%5.85%83.5%7.9%7.6%1.0%Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 7/25 7%ROE 2022“”ROE 8 9 18 22 2019/84.9%/85.6%/79.8%75%50-60%18-19 22 17.36%5.1%8.5%8.0%10.3%9.2%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%02,0004,0006,0008,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-ROE 2017 2.08%2.19%0.51 1.582018 4.23%4.20%0.65 1.512019 6.44%6.43%0.66 1.492020 6.53%7.23%0.63 1.422021 3.55%5.36%1.13 1.6822Q1-3 4.96%5.71%0.62 1.872021 ROE 3.55%5.36%1.13 1.68 17.27%16.93%0.63 1.61 20.52%10.57%0.93 2.09 18.82%15.17%0.79 1.5622Q1-3 ROE 4.96%5.71%0.62 1.87 8.62%10.36%0.45 1.85 10.33%4.92%0.84 2.51 10.92%13.23%0.52 1.58Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 8/25 10 11 2019 12%/19 2021 4.6%19 19 16.3%22Q1-3 8.4%13 14 25.13%25.03%19.42%20.46%16.98%20.29%25.43%18.68%17.36%16.27%13.72%2.69%5.98%2.19%4.20%6.43%5.36%5.34%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 22Q1-3 84.9%85.6%79.8%3.5%3.0%1.0%11.6%11.4%19.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%-3,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,00010%15%20%25%30%35%40%17Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3-15.7%13.0%13.4%10.1%9.7%13.8%16.3%8.1%9.4%8.4%-5%0%5%10%15%20%3%5%7%9%11%13%15%17%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 9/25 1.2 33.8%15 16 22 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 10/25 2022-2024 2020 2.79 15%2022-2024 3.69/4.24/4.88 2023 1 16 PE 20.3X/17.7X/15.4X 17 2 10 CAGR 12.1%2020 718 0.29%2010-2020 CAGR 12.1%CAGR 1.02%19 18 2010-2020 19 2019 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800 YoY-14.89%9.26%7.63%5.51%3.73%2.01%0.29%3.56%2.29%1.35%2.53%-6.24%3.16%4.14%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020YoY-YoY-Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 11/25 55.38%20 2019 2.1&()21 22 2019 52 70 POS 2019 52 2013-2019 CAGR 12.98%26.20%14.86%7.31%7.01%4.51%2.99%2.87%2.24%2.06%29.93%Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 12/25 23 Smithers Pira 2017 344.6 17-22 CAGR 2.8%2022 395 Alexander Watson Associates 2018 44%2013 2018 300 468.7 CAGR 9.33%2021 570.8 24 2018 25 Alexander Watson Associates 2021 1083 2020 249 29.92%2014 2019 10 5%97%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 yoy44%25%19%8%4%&0%5%10%15%02004006002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E yoy Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 13/25 26 2015-2020 2.2 2019 26.2%2011 2019 107.38 205.40 CAGR 8.45%27 2011-2019 CR4 50%300 78 26%30 10%8.3%139.6206.7312.8400.6597.1635.2833.610830%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001,0001,2002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002502011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoYTable_CompanyRptType1 600433 14/25 28 29 1 2 3 30 21 5.4 31 2023E 1771 32 33 2021 2843 26.0%10.0%8.3%10.0%45.7%020406080-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01234562015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%2003 2009 2016 2019-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01,0002,0003,000200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 yoyTable_CompanyRptType1 600433 15/25 2.3 2018 19.2 60%25%15%34 2021 23 2021 23+9.5%2011-2021 CAGR 8.58%2020 36.5%/31%12.8%35 2011-2021 36 2020 1 2021 235.41 0%5%10%15%20%0510152025 yoy31%36.50%12.80%19.70%Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 16/25 37 2 3 3.1 2021 4.6%0.8pct 38 39-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%1502002503003502010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy010,00020,00030,00040,000 2018 2019 20202021 22Q1-33.5%2.6%3.5%6.1%3.8%4.6%4.6%0%2%4%6%8%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-3 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 17/25 BMB VALMET VOITH 40 121.3%Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 18/25 41 42 1 20wt 27wt 43 44 2 1 115.4%119.6%129.1%135.4%106.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 19/25 22%2 PBS”PE 45 46 30wt 24 4 18wt 6wt 23 24 24 116 3.2 1 10wt 15wt 2wt Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 20/25 61.2wt 24 1 45.3%47 48 2 3.3 2023E Arauco MAPA 156 2022 12 UPM 210 23Q1 2023E Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 21/25 49 50 22-25 BMA 22 1382.25/444.56/1 1500/2 8700/3 600 850/620 22/4 13%15%51 22 2023E 5%-30%86 4.47-7.69 5%1%2023E 86 4.47-7.69 4000450050005500600065007000750080002017/1/3 2018/1/3 2019/1/3 2020/1/3 2021/1/3 2022/1/3/Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 22/25 52 4 21 22 22 23 24 30wt 6wt 53 22-24E 3.85/5.39/6.44+177.6%/40.1%/19.4%PE 19.5X/13.9X/11.7X“”Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 23/25 54 2019 PE-TTM 55 2017 wind 56 PE wind 01/16 2025303540455055606519-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-10PE-TTM 1/4 3/4 30405060708090100110120-1/43/4 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 24/25 Table_Finace:2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 4121 5141 5985 6755 7398 8522 8864 10649 1308 2209 3434 3979 6016 7131 7092 8560 769 958 812 838 57 51 59 72 38 80 62 56 86 85 97 115 199 178 191 223 256 239 266 319 824 1157 813 852 12 8 19 19 984 559 673 808-71-86-100-96 5158 5146 4962 5667 0 0 0 0 679 689 698 707 7 11 2 10 3673 3621 3368 4013 472 588 854 1035 347 348 382 404 8 5 5 5 460 489 515 542 12 1 0 0 9280 10287 10947 12422 468 592 859 1040 2211 2829 2748 3340 71 79 120 158 681 881 1181 1481 397 513 739 882 560 886 533 656 258 128 200 238 970 1062 1035 1203 139 385 539 644 159 160 161 162 EBITDA 830 3507 4434 3568 90 90 90 90 EPS 0.08 0.21 0.29 0.35 69 70 71 72 2371 2989 2910 3502 1898 2027 2226 2464 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1839 1844 1844 1844 878 878 878 878 13.9%15.2%4.0%20.1%2294 2550 3089 3733-3.3%24.6%45.2%21.2%5011 5272 5811 6455-56.4%177.6%40.1%19.4%9280 10287 10947 12422%18.7%16.3%20.0%19.6%:%1.9%4.5%6.1%6.0%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%2.8%7.3%9.3%10.0%1173 3739 4332 3501 ROIC%5.8%7.0%9.0%9.2%397 513 739 882 300 2832 3458 2418%25.5%29.1%26.6%28.2%11 23 41 53%34.3%41.0%36.2%39.3%-31-11-2-10 1.86 1.82 2.18 2.02 322 297-1 62 1.38 1.33 1.79 1.68 251 301 837 916-214-2891-3367-3203 0.79 0.87 0.83 0.91-38-2876-3339-3184 8.65 9.86 10.00 12.86 0-20-24-22 10.08 9.86 10.00 14.40-176 5-4 4-682 53 260 248 0.08 0.21 0.29 0.35-224 200 300 300 0.64 2.03 2.35 1.90-55 0 0 0 2.72 2.86 3.15 3.50 568 5 0 0-568 0 0 0 P/E 61.25 19.49 13.92 11.66-404-152-40-52 P/B 1.80 1.42 1.29 1.16 269 901 1225 545 EV/EBITDA 10.27 1.80 1.22 1.44 Table_CompanyRptType1 600433 25/25 Table_Introduction 2020 4 2021 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%