20230618-华创证券-南山铝业-600219.SH-跟踪分析报告_产品高端化日趋凸显_印尼布局打开成长空间_6页_704kb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 06 18 600219 3.52 3.07 25 200 100 2021 5 2022 100 2022 2022 7.64 5.28 15%2023 200 25/26/2026 7 2026 4 2022 12.92%2021 0.26 21.16%2021 1.27 10 2023 2021 10 10 2023 81.6 2022 2023 33.6 48 5500 2022 Q4 1,327/2023 6 14 5500 765/2022 Q3 8,843/2023 6 14 5,838/2023-2025 38.40 45.69 50.49 0.33 0.39 0.43 2024 PE 9 2024 9 PE 412 3.52 15%1 2 3 ReportFinancialIndex S0360522120003 S0360522120002 S0360522120001()1,170,855.28()1,170,855.28()359.45()359.45(%)22.09()3.91 12/3.81/2.97(12)600219 2021-12-06 600219 2018-10-18 600219 2018-09-17-19%-11%-3%5%22/06 22/08 22/11 23/01 23/04 23/062022-06-172023-06-16 300 600219 2009 1210 2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()34,951 37,917 41,014 46,439(%)21.7%8.5%8.2%13.2%()3,516 3,840 4,569 5,049(%)3.1%9.2%19.0%10.5%()0.30 0.33 0.39 0.43()10 9 8 7()0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 2023 6 16 600219 2009 1210 3 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 20,875 24,876 30,568 35,175 34,951 37,917 41,014 46,439 1,428 1,641 1,840 1,914 27,644 29,777 31,832 36,306 2,756 3,547 3,855 4,250 264 356 376 407 886 1,333 1,456 1,578 291 316 342 387 6,436 8,224 8,577 9,761 958 1,039 1,124 1,273 0 0 0 0 1,486 1,612 1,744 1,974 1,614 1,664 1,598 1,898-223 118 89 53 33,994 41,284 47,894 54,575-14-14-14-14 0 0 0 0-448-224-149-100 567 567 567 567 0 0 0 0 26,381 26,413 26,680 27,106 118 118 118 118 923 1,385 2,077 3,116 94 94 94 94 2,338 2,145 1,978 1,820 4,282 4,674 5,557 6,138 523 578 622 662 11 11 11 11 30,732 31,088 31,925 33,271 38 38 38 38 64,726 72,371 79,819 87,845 4,255 4,648 5,531 6,111 7,350 8,179 9,215 9,589 312 340 405 447 814 1,203 1,253 1,309 3,944 4,308 5,126 5,664 3,125 4,379 4,498 4,981 428 468 557 615 0 0 0 0 3,516 3,840 4,569 5,049 267 290 314 355 NOPLAT 3,737 4,417 5,209 5,713 388 388 388 388 EPS()0.30 0.33 0.39 0.43 12 12 12 12 1,921 2,078 2,273 2,570 13,878 16,530 17,951 19,204 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 190 965 1,929 3,128 0 0 0 0 21.7%8.5%8.2%13.2%640 640 640 640 EBIT-5.9%18.2%17.9%9.7%830 1,605 2,569 3,768 3.1%9.2%19.0%10.5%14,708 18,135 20,520 22,972 45,102 48,474 52,531 56,971 20.9%21.5%22.4%21.8%4,916 5,763 6,768 7,902 11.3%11.4%12.5%12.2%50,018 54,236 59,299 64,873 ROE 7.8%7.9%8.7%8.9%64,726 72,371 79,819 87,845 ROIC 7.2%7.7%8.1%8.1%22.7%25.1%25.7%26.2%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 16.4%18.1%19.9%20.6%6,669 5,244 6,960 6,818 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 6,013 6,825 7,608 8,124 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3-7-1,788-353-1,184 383-1,227-481-491 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5-2 1,643 168 540 29 30 32 31 281-209 19-172 41 45 50 47-1,495-3,013-3,752-4,692 84 89 95 91-433-2,700-3,186-3,713()-69 0 0 0 0.30 0.33 0.39 0.43-993-314-566-979 0.57 0.45 0.59 0.58-1,721 1,771 2,484 2,481 3.85 4.14 4.49 4.87-892 1,604 1,999 1,573-1,047-895-1,003-1,057 P/E 10 9 8 7 0 0 0 0 P/B 1 1 1 1 219 1,061 1,488 1,965 EV/EBITDA 8 7 6 6 600219 2009 1210 4 6 2 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 7 Wind 2022 2022 2 2022 2023 600219 2009 1210 5 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 600219 2009 1210 6 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522