深度报告-20230116-平安证券-亚星锚链-601890.SH-漂浮式海风方兴未艾_系泊链龙头大展宏图_28页_3mb.pdf

2023 01 16(601890.SH)请 通 过 合 法 途径获 取本公 司研究 报告，如经由 未经许 可的渠 道获得 研究报 告，请 慎重 使用并 注意阅 读研究 报告尾 页的声 明内容。8.93/27.70%,()959 A()959 B/H()86 A()86()3.34(%)24.7 S1060517070004 PIXIU 80 30 2022 7.80 33%6.06 23%1.24 33%0.50 2022 9 2035 15GW 70%45 2021 2022 100 22.5/W 20%3.5/W R5 2014 ISO20438 R6 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()1,109 1,320 1,523 1,845 2,253 YOY(%)-13.6 19.0 15.4 21.1 22.1()87 121 139 184 244 YOY(%)-3.0 39.0 14.5 32.5 33.0(%)22.7 24.3 23.1 25.1 26.4(%)7.9 9.2 9.1 10.0 10.9 ROE(%)2.9 3.9 4.3 5.5 6.9 EPS(/)0.09 0.13 0.14 0.19 0.25 P/E()98.3 70.7 61.7 46.6 35.0 P/B()2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 证券研究报告 2/28 2022-2024 15.23 18.45 22.53 1.39 1.84 2.44 PE 61.7 46.6 35.0 1 2 3 4 3/28.6 1.1.6 1.2.7.9 2.1.9 2.2.13 2.3.15.19 3.1.19 3.2/.21 3.3.23.26.26 4/28 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.7 6%.7 7 2021.7 8.8 9.8 10 ICE/.8 11.9 12.9 13.10 14.10 15.11 16.11 17.12 18.12 19.12 20 16.6MW.13 21.14 22.14 23 Equinor.15 24.15 25 MW.15 26.16 27.16 28.17 29.17 30.18 31.18 32.19 33.19 34.20 35 R5 981.20 36.22 5/28 37.22 38.22 39 2021.23 40 2021.23 41.23 42 ROE.24 43.24 44.25 45.25 46 Vicinay.26 6/28 1.1 80 30 2021 30 16 11 3 2021 36.47%2022 10.7 5.82%0.96 1.34%2021 38.16%18.04%50%SBN 2 1 2 WIND WIND 3 4 WIND WIND 14.2 19.6 17.6 17.8 19.4 18.6 14.1 15.3 15.0 10.2 10.2 10.4 12.8 11.1 13.2 10121416182022200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 051015202520112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 7/28 5 6%WIND WIND 7 2021 WIND 1.2 2021 3970 3.0%6707 131.8%2021 11985 117%2022 1-11 3960 37.8%2022 2015-2020 6000800010000120001400016000180002000020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 051015202530354045201320142015201620172018201920202021 8/28 8 9 Clarksons 2021 2022 9 2022 5 20152021 3997 20222026 5480 2022 1672.8 21.3%33.2%10 ICE/WIND 2022 7.80 33%6.06 23%1.24 33%0.50 2022 873 3236 12060 6246 4548 14477 10975 9646 2742 7267 7685 6440 5523 11985 02000400060008000100001200014000160002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021全球新接船舶订单（万载重吨）020406080100120140Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20Jul-20Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23 9/28 11 WIND 2.1 2009 2009 Equinor 10km 2.3MW 200m 4 12 Hyw ind Demo 2009 Equinor Hyw ind 2.3MW WindFloat 1)2011 Principle Pow er WindFloat 2MW Fukushima Forw ard phase 1 2013 Mitsui Engineering&Shipbuilding Semi-Sub 2MW Kabashima()2013 T oda Corporation Hybrid Spar 2MW Fukushima Forw ard phase 2 2015 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries V-Shape Semi-Sub 7MW Fukushima Forw ard phase 3 2016 Japan Marine United Advanced Spar 5MW Sakiyama 2016 T oda Corporation Hybrid Spar 2MW Floatgen 2018 IDEOL Damping Pool 2MW IDEOL Kitakyushu Demo 2018 IDEOL Damping Pool 3MW Ulsan Demo 2020 Mastec Heavy Industries Semi-Sub 0.75MW T etraspar Demonstration 2021 Steisdal Offshore T echnologies T etraspar 3.6MW 2021 w.semi 5.5MW DemoSATH 2022 Saitec SATH 2MW FWJIP 10.899.7112.736.061.832.671.701.24024681012142019 2020 2021 2022H1船用锚链（万吨）海洋石油平台系泊链（万 吨）10/28 2021 3 105MW Equinor Hywind T ampen 2023 13 Hyw ind Scotland 2017 Equinor Equinor Hyw ind 30MW 6MW WindFloat Atlantic 2019 EDPR,ENGIE,Repsol,PPI Principle Pow er WindFloat 25MW 8.4MW Kincardine 2021 Pilot Offshore,Cobra Principle Pow er WindFloat 50MW 9.5MW Hyw ind T ampen 2023 Equinor Equinor Hyw ind 88MW 8MW FWJIP 14 MW Goto City 2023 T oda Corporation T oda Corporation Hybrid Spar 16.8 2-5 MW Les oliennes flottantes de Groix&Belle-le 2023 Shell/Eolfi,Naval Energies Sea Reed 28.5 9.5 MW Les Eoliennes Flottantes du Golfe du Lion 2023 Engie,EDPR,Caisse des Depots Principle Pow er WindFloat 30 10 MW EolMed(Gruissan)Pilot Farm 2023 Quadran IDEOL Damping Pool 30 10 MW Provence Grand Large 2023 EDF EN SBM Offshore TLP 25.2 8.4 MW Aqua Ventus I 2023 University of Maine University of Maine VolturnUS 12 6 MW FWJIP 2022 1 Crown Estate Scotland 17 24.8GW 14.5GW 11/28 15 2030 1GW 2021 ScotWind 74 17 24.8GW 14.5GW 3 2023 2030 250MW Utsira Nord(1.5 GW)S rlige Nordsj II(3 GW)Utsira 267 S rlige Nordsj II 60 2022 2020 GOTO 36/2021 1.7GW 2021 5 2030 6GW 2022 9 2035 15GW 15GW 70%45 GWEC 16(MW)1 SSE Renewables 8590 2610 2 Falck Renewables 2800 1200 3 Shell New Energies 8600 2000 4 VattenfaIl 2000 798 5 DEME 2000 1008 6 Falck Renewables 2560 1000 7 Falck Renewables 1340 500 8 Scottish Power RenewabIes 6840 3000 9 BayWa 3300 960 10 NorthIand Power 390 1500 11 Magnora 1030 495 12 BP Alternative Energy Investments 8590 2907 13 DEME 1870 1008 14 Ocean Winds 4290 1000 15 Offshore Wind Power 6570 2000 16 Northland Power 1610 840 17 Scottish Power RenewabIes 7540 2000 69920 24826 Crown Estate Scotland CWEA 2021 2021 7 400MW A1 2832 30 13000 12/28 9 1000 9 17 5.5MW 2.44 17 2021 12 6MW 2022 50-70m 9 2022 8 18 19 120 136 2023 1 400MW 1 4MW 35 1 35kV 2022 11 2023 2022 9 50 25 MySE11-230 18 MySE12-242 1 2023 2022 9 OceanX 16.6 13/28 15155 CTO 4.29%OceanX 2023 20 16.6MW 11 1230 100 100 100 20 2025 10 80 2027 2022 9 100 2022 12 2.2 60 60m 14/28 21 22 DNV WindEurope 2009 10 2017 Hywind Scotland 5 Hywind T ampen 40/W Equinor 2017 Hywind Scotland 30MW 2009 Hywind Demo 2.3MW 70%2023 Hywind T ampen 88MW Hywind Scotland 30MW 40%Hywind T ampen 50 40/W 87.3/MWh 2022 7 CfD Contracts for Difference 1 T winHub Floating Offshore Wind Project 32MW 2026-2027 122/MWh 87.3/MWh 0.707/Equinor Hywind Principle Power WindFloat Equinor Hywind Demo 2.3MW Hywind Scotland 30MW Hywind T ampen 88MW 200MW Principle Power 2011 WindFloat 1 2MW 2021 Kincardine 9.5MW 5 2 100MW 15/28 23 Equinor 24 Equinor DNV 100 42 4200 20 2025 50 25/W 80 2027 175 21.9/W 100 22.5/W 25%2020 GWEC 2030 6.5GW 2021 GWEC 2030 16.5GW GWEC 2026 GW 25 MW GWEC 2.3 17 5719011321260416701300338827506254010002000300040005000600070002020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 16/28 26 20%27 3.5/W 6.2MW 4000 2298 3.7/W 3 1 80 35 4000 7.25MW 2599 3.6/W 17/28 28 4415 3020 2599 20%29 VRYHOF 18/28 30 VRYHOF 9 1000 9 31 VRYHOF 19/28 3.1 6d 3.6d 6d 3.35d d FPSO 32 R3 R3S R4 R4S R5 R6 20 R3 R3S 21 R4 2000m R4 R5 R4 R5 2000m 33 69077086096010001100020040060080010001200R3 R3S R4 R4S R5 R6抗拉强度/Mpa 20/28 2005 R3 R4 R5 R6 2005 R3 2007 R4 2008 R5 2012 R6 2018 R6 34 2014 12 R5 2014 981 114 89 30670 12.5 3000 10000 60 12 R5 1700m 84mm 3000t 35 R5 981 21/28 R6 2021 2 R6 CM-SD1000 R6 CM-SD1000 111.5 75 99 12 2250 89mm 4800 R6 CM-SD1000 300-1000 2021 5 ISO20438 R5 R6 R3S R4 SMODU GAZFLOT R5 3.2/R5 2mm/s R5 R5 Mo V Nb Ti R5 200910250688.8 200910250689.2 200920292906.X 22/28 36 25 8 12.5240mm 30 37 38 R5 2010 R5 2010GRC10104 23/28 2008 2 R4mod R4S R5 R4mod R4 R4S R5 R5 2017 R6 2019 4 R6 R6 DNVGL R6 2008 R3 5500/R3 S 7600/R4 9700/39 2021 40 2021 WIND WIND 3.3 ROE 2021 7 2021 2020 ROE 4%41 1 CT045 2 CS051 3 CY025 4 CY039 5 CY040 6 CY041 7 CY042 8 CY043 9 CT186 73.4%0.7%6.9%4.8%2.0%6.3%5.8%79.2%0.5%4.4%3.1%1.3%7.8%3.8%24/28 42 ROE WIND 2021 2022/R3S 43/R5 R6 132mm R3S 25 5 1 R3S 132mm 46.3519.5932.3021.143.642.70-0.761.086.191.841.13-0.503.05 2.883.91-1001020304050200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 ROE%25/28 44 R3S R4 R5 Vicinay Equinor Principle Power Hywind Demo Vicinay 45 1 SHELL penguins redevelopment project 2019 R4 177mm 210mx13 R4 173mm 155mx13 2 mobil equatorial guinea Inc.SERPENTINA FPSO 2019 R4 165mm 55mx9 R4 157mm 665mx6 R4 157mm 560mx3 3 remazel Great tortue 2021 157mm R3S 4 remazel Petrofac FPU greater stella 2017 120mm R4 5 SMODU GAZFLOT 2014 R5 26/28 46 Vicinay 2018 2018 2022-2024 15.23 18.45 22.53 1.39 1.84 2.44 PE 61.7 46.6 35.0 1 2 3 4 27/28 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 3,212 3,508 3,705 3,983 1,502 1,647 1,737 1,813 375 413 445 512 5 7 8 10 89 98 118 144 752 867 908 999 489 476 488 504 925 891 913 932 0 0 0 0 559 534 546 544 163 160 161 162 203 197 206 226 4,137 4,398 4,618 4,915 496 699 819 976 0 0 0 0 144 158 172 192 351 541 647 784 401 363 337 309 306 268 242 214 95 95 95 95 897 1,063 1,156 1,285 95 96 98 100 959 959 959 959 1,384 1,384 1,384 1,384 802 896 1,021 1,186 3,146 3,240 3,364 3,530 4,137 4,398 4,618 4,915 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 66 187 198 201 121 140 185 246 73 44 48 51-18-31-37-41-36-30-20-20-130 53 12-45 55 11 9 9 48 9-59-59 34 10 70 70-191 0 0 0 205-1-129-129-40-51-49-66 0 0 0 0 300-37-27-28-339-13-23-38 71 145 90 76 iFinD 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,320 1,523 1,845 2,253 998 1,171 1,382 1,658 13 14 17 20 38 44 54 65 99 107 129 155 66 72 88 105-18-31-37-41-18-15-18-23 8 1 1 2 6 6 6 6-12-5-5-5 36 30 20 20-1-1-1-1 142 163 217 289 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 144 166 220 293 23 26 35 47 121 140 185 246 0 1 1 2 121 139 184 244 EBITDA 199 179 232 303 EPS 0.13 0.14 0.19 0.25 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E(%)19.0 15.4 21.1 22.1(%)38.3 14.9 33.2 33.6(%)39.0 14.5 32.5 33.0(%)24.3 23.1 25.1 26.4(%)9.2 9.1 10.0 10.9 ROE(%)3.9 4.3 5.5 6.9 ROIC(%)8.6 6.7 9.4 12.5(%)21.7 24.2 25.0 26.2(%)-36.9-41.3-43.2-44.1 6.5 5.0 4.5 4.1 4.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.7 7.3 8.5 9.4 10.1()0.13 0.14 0.19 0.25()0.07 0.19 0.21 0.21()3.28 3.38 3.51 3.68 P/E 70.7 61.7 46.6 35.0 P/B 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 EV/EBITDA 37.7 39.0 29.8 22.6 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 9 16 100033