深度报告-20230220-东方证券-道道全-002852.SZ-道道全首次覆盖报告_拐点已至_成长可期_23页_1mb.pdf

002852.SZ|2021 1471.35+4.7%1 6400 2 10 6pct 22/23 8507.6 15.0%1.8pct 7.5%1107.1 524.3 1-10 93.9 79.7 55.8%56.4%11-12 96.2%2 3 32.8 61.6%2 10%100.5 114.5 116.4 19.65 42.11%1 21 44%24%2 16.9%1308 21 10%3 2023 2022-2024-3.73 2.93 3.40-94.3%+178.5%+16.1%2023 18xPE 14.76 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()5,287 5,449 6,419 6,706 7,691(%)28.4%3.1%17.8%4.5%14.7%()(47)(251)(509)393 457(%)-127.7%-433.5%-102.6%177.2%16.2%()(76)(192)(373)293 340(%)-159.4%-151.0%-94.3%178.5%16.1%(0.21)(0.53)(1.04)0.82 0.95(%)7.2%1.6%-2.9%11.0%11.2%(%)-1.4%-3.5%-5.8%4.4%4.4%(%)-4.0%-9.1%-16.1%12.3%12.6%(57.1)(22.7)(11.7)14.9 12.8 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.5.2023 02 17 12.16 14.76 52/16.7/9.6/A 35,900/29,194 A 4,365/2023 02 20 1 1 3 12-2.81-2.01 1.65-9.94-1.06 0.47-4 2.91 300-1.75-2.48 5.65-12.85 021-63325888*6090 S0860520020002 BND809 2.5.6.6.8.10.11.12.12.13.14.14.15.17.18.18.19.19 3 1.5 2 2015.6 3 2022H.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.7 9 22/23E.8 10 22/23E.8 11.8 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.9 16 22/23 3.9 17.10 18.11 19 2019.11 20.12 21.12 22 22/23.12 23 22/23.12 24 22/23 8507.6 15.0%.13 25 22/23.13 26 22/23 62.1%.13 27 NDVI.13 28.14 29.14 30.14 31.15 32 2022.15 33.15 34 22Q3.15 4 35 2022H.16 36.16 37.16 38.16 39.17 40.17 41 2022.17 42 2022 10.18 43 CCTV-13.18 1.10 2.19 3 2023.20 5 1999 7 28 1 2015 2022 32 51.2%75.2%14.0%9.8%6 2 2015 3 2022H 2022-3600 128.78%4 5 2-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100020003000400050006000 YoY 75.2%14.0%9.8%1.0%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%-300-200-1000100200300-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%7 2 2 6 20 2001 30%7 8 USDA 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000/24 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020 8 USDA 22/23 4095.7 43%21%17%40%9 22/23E 10 22/23E USDA USDA 2015 2020 676.5 1 2000 9.7%2021 1471.35 4.7%2001-2021 2.6%11 12 43%21%17%9%4%3%2%1%0%10%23%40%10%4%23%05001,0001,5002,0002,50001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000kg/02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600 9 13 14 USDA 800-850 39%2000 30-40%22/23 820 150 670 1836 1556 280 30.8%15 16 22/23 3 050100150200250300350 0200400600800100015/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23E 69%13%18%10 80%2 2 90%10 4 5 17 USDA 1 6400 150 2022-2031 10 1.3 2.5%2170 4.5%1 2026 2031 4086 22593+1.4%4478 2.3%13021+2.5%2170 4.5%2022 2022 11 60%7%-3-6 18 2022 2022-2031 2031 6 4 000 5 t 90 2020 12 5%19 2019 2020 50%-60%20%-30%10%5%12 2015 20 21 85%22%23%44%22 22/23 23 22/23 USDA USDA USDA 2 22/23 8507.6 15.0%1.8pct 7.5%1107.1 524.3 228.4 112.5 2 10%-3000-2000-10000100020003000Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Apr-13Apr-14Apr-15Apr-16Apr-17Apr-18Apr-19Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22/():():():02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00005001,0001,5002,0002,500/CNF:-:-23%22%17%13%9%5%11%44%29%16%4%7%13 24 22/23 8507.6 15.0%25 22/23 USDA USDA 4 10 21/22 34%1.54/22/23 860 4.5%2.21/43.5%NDVI 7 26 22/23 62.1%27 NDVI USDA USDA 1-10 93.9 79.7 55.8%56.4%11-12 50 2 96.2%2 3 32.8 61.6%5.0%7.0%9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%0100020003000400050006000700080009000 0100200300400500600 22/23 21/22 11.21.41.61.822.22.42.602004006008001000/14 28 29 30 2022 100.5 114.5 116.4 6 2020 2021 2021 19.65 42.11%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.00Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15 31 32 2022 2021 23.8 13.1 43.6%24.0%14.0 25.7%2021 2022 3.6 1.9 99.1%81.0%2021 100/33 34 22Q3 2022 9 16.9%1308 600 78 010203040506070 2022.8 2021.8 2021.9-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050 YoY47.1%46.8%45.9%47.4%43.6%42.3%15.8%17.5%20.5%21.1%24.0%26.0%35.7%33.1%31.0%28.1%25.7%25.9%1.5%2.6%2.6%3.4%6.7%5.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H 22%16%20%21%21%16 50.3%43.4%35 2022H 36 KA 2019 5%2021 10%2022 1.36 59.9%37 38 2021 2022 1.3%2022 2 4 10 89%11%0100200300400500 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0.000.501.001.502.002.502020A 2021A 2022H YoY 17 39 40 41 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H 18 2020 2021 3.4 2022 10 2021 2022 5 CCTV-13 42 2022 10 43 CCTV-13 2022-2024 1)2022 5%23-24 23-24 20%15%2)2022 17.4%-2.8%2023-2024 25.9%0.5%12.5%11.7%3)2022 2.7%2 3.1%2022-2024 1.30%3.4100246810122021A 2022E 19 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 4,141.0 3,962.7 4,667.6 4,876.2 5,592.9 31.0%-4.3%17.8%4.5%14.7%8.7%1.8%-2.8%12.5%12.7%684.6 973.5 1,146.7 1,198.0 1,374.0 16.5%42.2%17.8%4.5%14.7%2.8%-4.7%-9.6%6.7%7.0%461.7 513.3 604.6 631.6 724.4 25.3%11.2%17.8%4.5%14.7%0.7%12.2%8.5%7.0%7.0%5,287.3 5,449.5 6,418.9 6,705.8 7,691.3 28.4%3.1%17.8%4.5%14.7%7.2%1.6%-2.9%11.0%11.2%2023 2022-2024-3.73 2.93 3.40-94.3%+178.5%+16.1%2023 18xPE 14.76 2 EPS()PE 2023/2/17 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 300999 44.86 0.76 0.63 1.02 1.45 58.86 71.21 43.98 30.94 002661 12.10 0.20 0.43 0.54 0.69 60.62 27.88 22.32 17.59 601952 12.24 0.53 0.67 0.73 0.78 22.88 18.17 16.72 15.79 000930 8.59 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.73 14.14 14.08 13.63 11.77 600737 7.21 0.24 0.29 0.45 0.30 29.68 24.45 16.02 24.03 37.00 23.00 18.00 19.00 2021A-2024E 20 3 2023 2023 3 7.5 4 0.0 4 2.5 4 5.0 4 7.5 5 0.0 5 2.5/1 1 0 0 0-51.7-57.5-63.2-69.0-74.8-80.6-86.3 10500 44.8 45.5 46.2 46.8 47.5 48.1 48.8 10000 141.4 148.5 155.6 162.7 169.8 176.8 183.9 9500 237.9 251.4 265.0 278.5 292.0 305.6 319.1 9000 334.4 354.4 374.4 394.3 414.3 434.3 454.2 8500 431.0 457.4 483.8 510.2 536.6 563.0 589.4 8000 527.5 560.3 593.2 626.0 658.8 691.7 724.5 21 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 382 413 486 508 582 5,287 5,449 6,419 6,706 7,691 86 83 101 104 120 4,905 5,361 6,606 5,971 6,832 210 150 214 225 242 12 14 14 15 17 875 858 1,189 1,015 1,196 169 118 173 208 239 200 270 88 91 103 76 90 89 93 106 1,754 1,773 2,077 1,943 2,243(2)30 50 63 50 0 0 0 0 0 17 49 21(9)11 739 1,447 2,489 2,542 2,557(16)14 30 16 1 711 571 266 213 187(193)(74)(25)(9)(1)161 156 152 149 145 52 22 20 20 20 92 175 146 146 146(47)(251)(509)393 457 1,704 2,349 3,054 3,050 3,034 4 2 7 3 3 3,458 4,123 5,131 4,993 5,277 2(0)1 1 1 761 809 2,006 1,525 1,344(45)(248)(503)394 458 299 456 363 400 471 32(50)(118)93 108 420 323 406 410 454(77)(198)(385)302 350 1,480 1,588 2,776 2,336 2,270(1)(6)(12)9 11 0 0 0 0 0(76)(192)(373)293 340 0 0 0 0 0-0.21-0.53-1.04 0.82 0.95 92 85 81 81 81 92 85 81 81 81 1,572 1,673 2,857 2,416 2,350 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 61 56 44 54 64 289 359 359 359 359 28.4%3.1%17.8%4.5%14.7%842 1,562 1,770 1,770 1,770-127.7%-433.5%-102.6%177.2%16.2%694 474 101 394 734-159.4%-151.0%-94.3%178.5%16.1%0(1)0 0 0 1,886 2,450 2,275 2,576 2,927 7.2%1.6%-2.9%11.0%11.2%3,458 4,123 5,131 4,993 5,277-1.4%-3.5%-5.8%4.4%4.4%ROE-4.0%-9.1%-16.1%12.3%12.6%ROIC-3.6%-6.0%-9.3%8.3%9.3%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E(77)(198)(385)302 350 45.5%40.6%55.7%48.4%44.5%60 70 123 164 176 20.1%16.2%66.8%39.5%26.0%(2)30 50 63 50 1.19 1.12 0.75 0.83 0.99 193 74 25 9 1 0.59 0.55 0.30 0.37 0.43(80)79(300)206(122)(38)(142)18(25)10 80.7 61.1 66.1 62.0 65.1 56(87)(468)719 465 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.1 5.9(711)(630)(860)(160)(160)1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 0 0 0 0 0 104(43)46 7 0-0.21-0.53-1.04 0.82 0.95(607)(673)(814)(153)(160)0.20-0.24-1.30 2.00 1.30 0 0 0 0 0 5.08 6.67 6.21 7.03 7.97(39)790 208 0 0 718(21)1,147(544)(231)-57.1-22.7-11.7 14.9 12.8 679 769 1,356(544)(231)2.4 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 3 0-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 502.0-39.3-17.6 9.6 8.7 131 9 73 22 75 EV/EBIT-121.8-26.9-12.9 13.0 11.7 22 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer