20230921_华创证券_电力设备及新能源行业深度研究报告：人形机器人系列之二奇点时刻丝杠崛起_33页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 09 21 1 32%2 Optimus 14 2 4 8 2030 270 217 487 VS 1 2 0-1 4-5 3 1 2022 126.41 2015-2022 CAGR 6.16%2 2022 20.59 2019-2022 CAGR 14.83%1 CR5 46%49.46%2 Rollvis GSA CR3=66%8%44%RV 22 S0360522080001 S0360523050001%()296 0.04()51,983.35 5.73()42,887.48 6.14%1M 6M 12M-6.3%-13.2%-20.2%-4.9%-7.3%-15.0%2023-07-17-21%-11%-2%7%22/09 22/11 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/092022-09-192023-09-18 300 2009 1210 2 WUFUuNsPmPpOpRmPmRrOpObRcM8OsQnNmOmPkPoOwPjMnPtN8OoPmRxNqQnRvPnPwP 2009 1210 2022 126.41 2015-2022 CAGR 6.16%20%400 2022 20.59 2019-2022 CAGR 14.83%CR3 66%325 Optimus 2 4 8 2030 270 55%2009 1210 4.7.7 1.7 2.7 3.10.10.11.12 VS.14.14 1.14 2.14 3.15 4.16.17 1.17 2.19 3.19 4.20.23.23.23 1.23 2.24 3 25 4.26 5.28 6.29.30 2009 1210 5 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.10 8.10 9.11 10 Optimus.11 11 Optimus.12 12.12 13.13 14.14 15.14 16.15 17.15 18.16 19 MITSUISEIKI GSE100/200H.16 20.17 21.17 22.17 23.17 24.18 25.19 26.19 27.20 28.20 29 2022.21 30 2022.21 31.21 32.21 33.22 2009 1210 6 34.22 35.22 36.23 37.23 38.24 39.25 40.25 41.25 42.26 43.26 44.26 45.27 46.27 47.28 48.29 49.29 50.29 51.30 52.30 2009 1210 7 1 Altas/1 80%98%95%97%90%96%96%99%90%SolidWorks EVERLAR AMDSK 2 2009 1210 8/2 3 2009 1210 9 4 26%46%90%96%0.10.2 0.0030.01 RPM 3000 10000 4 iHF FULETEST 5 6-Optimus-RGTI 2009 1210 10 3 Optimus 7 615 1/3 90%96%90%5000 r/min)6000 r/min)0.1mm 1 m 15 2 32%15%14%11%5%8 Super 2022 2009 1210 11 9 Optimus 14 14 12 2 4 8 500N 3900N 8000N 8000N 10 Optimus 2022 AI Day Tesla Optimus Optimus+2009 1210 12 11 Optimus 2022 AI Day 2030 300 2030 200 270 12 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E/14 14 14 14 14 14 14/0.197 0.158 0.126 0.114 0.102 0.092 0.089/-/2.76 2.21 1.77 1.59 1.43 1.29 1.25/0.10 1.00 4.00 12.00 33.60 88.03 216.38/0.28 2.21 7.07 19.08 48.07 113.36 270.28 2030 55%2009 1210 13 13 2022 A 2019-2022 5%01002003004005006002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E-2009 1210 14 VS 1 14 15 2 2 300mm 7 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 T7 T10 1-10 2009 1210 15 16 2020 JIS C0-C10 C7 C10 C0-C5 17 3 C9C0 CNC P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 T7 T10 C0 C1 C3 C5 C7 C10 2009 1210 16 C9C5 18 2-4 CNC C0 C5 _ P1 19 MITSUISEIKI GSE100/200H 4 2022 126.41 2015-2022 CAGR 6.16%2022 27.70 2015-2022 CAGR 9.89%20%2009 1210 17 20 21 2022 A()6.8 2022 A()2020 49.46%27.91%15.68%6.95%NSK THK Ewellix Schaeffler PMI CR5 46%22 23 2020 2021 1 4 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 2009 1210 18 24 2009 1210 19 2 ISO International Organization for Standardization DIN Deutsche Industrie Norm JIS Japanese Industrial Standards 300mm V_300 ISO C0 C1 C3 C5 C7 C10 DIN C1 C3 C5 C7 C10 JIS C0 C1 C3 C5 C0 ISO DIN G ISO G1 G3 G5 ISO C1 C3 C5 G1-G5 25 C0 C1 C3 C5 C7 C10(m)ISO 3.5 6 12 23 52 210 DIN/6 12 23 52 210 JIS 3.5 5 8 18/G1 G3 G5(m)/6 12 23/:ISO 03408-3-2006 DIN 69051-3-1989 JIS-B-1192-1997 ROLLVIS catalogue 2019 300 300mm 3 GSA SKF Ewellix Moog Nook G1-G5 24-63mm 26 G1-G5 178.32KN 178.32KN 8-210mm ROLLVIS G1-G5 238.7KN 238.7KN 3.5-120mm G3-G5 51KN 51KN 24-63mm CHR 167.8KN 167.8KN 8-120mm Linear motion standard range ROLLVIS Satellite roller screws catalogue 2019 2020 30mm 2009 1210 20 27 4 2022 20.59 2019-2022 CAGR 14.83%28 2019-2022 6.8 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 2009 1210 21 Rollvis GSA CR3=66%8%29 2022 30 2022 E E 325 31 32 2023.4 2023.4 瑞士 中国 瑞典 德国 美国Rollvis GSA Rexroth CMC 0102030405060702010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 22 33 34 2023.4 2023.4 35,139,42SKF,39,22TOYOTA,19,16,14,10,8,8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 14 22 26 16 23 39 31 38 37 27 36 13 1 5 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 4 2 8 2 1 1 4 5 4 3 6 2 10 4 13 13 1 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 4 4 2 2 4 5 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 4 3 11 5 5 2009 1210 23 36 2018 2022 6 500 2022 16,700 3 14,000 1 80 13 37 2009 1210 24 350 2022 2022 3 350 2 38 14mm-86mm 0.01mm 0.0006mm 200KG 3D 14mm 0.005mm 20,000 90%14mm 0.005mm 20,000 90%0.0006mm 2,000N T Ra 0.2 0.002mm 0.1mm300mm T 0.02mm 300mm 0.01mm 500 150mm 2009 1210 25 2023 9 14 Wind 23/24/25 4.1/5.5/7.2 29%/34%/30%1.2/1.7/2.2 23%/36%/29%PE 30.2/22.3/17.2 39 40 Wind Wind 3 2022 41 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.000.501.001.502.002.502020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2009 1210 26 12 4.5 279 70 29 5 15 24.8 15 2023 4 2023 9 14 Wind 23/24/25 13.5/17.4/21.7 23%/28%/25%2.7/3.4/4.2 17%/27%/24%PE 29.9/23.5/18.9 42 43 Wind Wind 4 2005 500 44 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.001.002.003.004.005.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2009 1210 27 InLine/2022 14 104,000 4,500 750 100,000 100,000 3 5S 2023 9 14 Wind 23/24/25 94.2/110.7/130.8 15%/18%/18%26.9/32.2/39.0 15%/19%/21%PE 31.6/26.5/21.9 45 46 Wind Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2009 1210 28 5 47 CK/BL E C F N 5KG800KG SCARA 2022 100 14 2009 1210 29 2 3 2023 9 14 Wind 23/24/25 46.2/56.3/67.6 13%/22%/20%3.0/4.1/5.3 7%/37%/32%PE 43.2/31.5/24.0 48 49 Wind Wind 6 22 50 CNC-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2009 1210 30 PLC 2022 2023 9 14 Wind 23/24/25 6.3/8.8/11.3 30%/41%/28%1.2/1.7/2.2 28%/42%/27%PE 33.1/23.3/18.4 51 52 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.000.501.001.502.002.502020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2009 1210 31/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 33 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522