20231016_国信证券_国信通信·行业专题Arista：交换机新锐引领软硬件解耦趋势_56页.pdf

|2023 10 16 Arista 021-S0980518100002 021-Arista 2004 2008 MetaArista 30%2023 28.1 YoY+46%9.3 YoY+62%Arista ASIC/2022 200 YoY+20%600 YoY+11%Arista IDC 2022 440.3 YoY+17%200 YoY+20%30%Arista 19%9%2022 600 YoY+11%WLAN Wifi HPE Arista EOS CloudVision 1 800G AI 2 EOS Extensible Operating System CloudVision Linux AWS Azure Google Could 3 4 Arista 3%19%2023-2025 51.4/63.6/71.7 18.3/19.7/22.4 RoCE 800G AI OEM/ODM IDC 2022 AIWUEVuNsPtQoPoQoNrMoRqR9PdNbRpNqQoMtQjMqRmMiNrQtN8OpOqMwMnRrRuOrMrO Arista 01 02 03 04Arista 05A 06 Arista Arista EOS Cloud Vision 2004 2008 EOS 2013 Slpine 7500E 2014 2015 EOS+Cloudvision 2016-2018 Arista WLAN Arista Any Cloud 2019-2022 CloudEOS DANZ CloudVison Arista 2008EOS20137500E Series7150 SDN Switch7050X,EOS+20157500R Series,70160X,7280R Series,Arista NetDB and Telemetry2016 20127250X,7280,7300 Series2014Arista Any Cloud2017Arista Cognitive Wi-Fi,Campus,7170,Security201820197360X,7130,400G R3-Series,CloudEOSAttack Surface Assessment,DANZ Monitoring Fabric,Cognitive Campus Edge,OSFP-LS,750 Series2020Multi-Domain Macro-Segmentation Service,Cloud-Grade Routing,CloudVision 2021,7800 Series Spine Platform2021EOS NetDL,Arista A V A2022 Arista 14.0034.0054.0074.0094.00114.00134.00154.00174.002015-01-02 2016-09-16 2018-06-01 2020-02-14 2021-10-29 2023-07-14ARISTA()Arista Arista EOS/CloudVision CloudEOS 100G 200G 400G 800G Cognitive Adjacencies WiFi Arista EOS EOS CloudVision api CloudVision Arista EOS EOS Arista SDNLAB Arista Arista Arista ASIC Arista Linux Linux OS Arista Android iPhone EOS(Extensible Operating System)API Linux Arista Andy Bechtolsheim Ken Duda David Cheriton Jayshree Ullal Cisco Arista Jayshree V.Ullal Jayshree Arista Jayshre 2014 6 IPO Jayshree Cisco 10 30 2015 EY 2018 Barron Andy Bechtolsheim Andy 1976 1977 1982 EY Andy Sun Microsystems Granite Systems 1996 Cisco 1996 2003 Andy Cisco Gigabit VP/GM Cisco Catalyst 4500 Andy Kenneth Duda Ken MIT 3 Kenneth Duda Arista Networks EOS VMware VXLAN Microsoft NVGRE 2005 2008 Ken Arista Networks Arista Networks Ken T 3-D Ken Granite Systems Cisco Catalyst 4000 Anshul Sadana Anshul Anshul Sadana Anshul 2007 Arista Arista Arista Anshul Cisco Catalyst 4500 4900 Ita Brennan Ita Brennan Arista Arista Arista Ita 2014 2 2015 5 CFO Infinera Corporation INFN 8 CFO 2010 7 2014 2 2006 7 2010 7 1997 2006 Ita Maxtor Corporation John McCool John John McCool Arista John 30 EMC Firetide Cisco Systems 17 1996 Cisco Granite Systems Cisco John SynOptics NeXT Computer Advanced Micro Devices Marc Taxay Marc Marc Taxay 2013 Arista Marc Arista Arista Marc MedeAnalytics,Inc.Coremetrics,Inc.Marc Cohen&Grigsby Wilson Sonsini Goodrich&Rosati 2022%Wind Arista%Wind()Arista Linux EOS Arista Azure Meta Amazon Arista Arista 2022 2021 2020Microsoft 42%15%22%Meta 10%10%Arista-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0100200300400500600 Arista%Arista%Secure,Agile Networks47%Internet for the Future10%Collaboration9%E2E Security7%Optimized Application Experiences Services26%2017-2022 5 86%2020 COVID-19 2022 12 31 Arista 9000 Meta Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%-50%0%50%100%150%200%020040060080010001200140016002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%PCS 80%2023 22.7 81%80%Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 Arista 2022 Wind Core Data Center&Cloud Networks Cognitive Adjacencies Campus&Routing Cognitive Network-SW&Services Arista 60%/Arista 30%60%Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2022 7.28 24.1%15%2022 3.27 14.3%2022 0.73 12.2%2022 Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind Arista 2015-2023H1%Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1Research and development%of revenue0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1Research and development(%)Sales and marketing(%)General and administrative(%)Total operating expenses(%)2021 Linux1.0 1994 2 2.0/2008 Linux 2010 NEC HP OVS OpenVSwitch 2015 OCP Weddge 2016 SONiC Software for Open Networking in the Cloud OpenSwitch AT&T DANOS Disaggregated Network Operating System NG-SDN Next Generation SDN Stratum SDNLAB AT&T SDN CPU OCP NOS AT&T 1 1 2 2 ASIC 1 2 CPU 3 CPU 4 5 ASIC ASIC FPGA ASIC Trident4 Silicon One G200 Broadcom Trident4 runtime StrataXGS StrataDNX Trident Tomahawk Qumran Jericho FE3600/FE600 StrataXGS 2022 8 51.2Tbps Tomahawk5 ASIC CISCO Silicon One P4 6 Silicon One G200 G202 G200 512 x 112Gbps SerDes 800G 400G 200G 100G 50G 40G 25G 10G Tomahawk5 Tomahawk4Trident4Jericho2c+4Q19 2Q19 4Q20 7nm 7nm 7nm 64 400GbE,128 200GbE,256 100GbE32x 400GbE,64x 200GbE,128x 100Gb144 x 50 25.6 Tb/s 12.8 Tb/14.4 Tb/fully-programmableuser-programmableprogrammable NPL C+NOS SDNLAB NOS NOS NOS Juniper Arista OPS,Sonic OPX SDN NOS+NOS NOS OTT NOS MicroSoft SONiC ONF Stratum AT&T DANOS Open Switch NOS C114 2023 13.5 2019-2023 33%NOS NOS SONiCswss syncd:C+mgmt:Go Python C protocol:C Azure,barefoot,Broadcom m,Mellanox,arista,Centec,dell,Alibaba,tencSAIUniNOS G o/uSAIDANOS C Perl Go Python VNF AT&T FALStratum C+google,Tencent,cisco,VMware,barefoot,broadcom,mellanoxP4runtimeDENT Amazon,Cumulus,Delta,Marvell,Mellanox,WN C,edge-coreswitch DEV NOS SONiC/SAI github SONiC NOS SONiC github SONiC Software for Open Networking in the Cloud SAI Switch Abstraction Interface Linux SONiC/SAI OCP OCP SAI SONiC SONiC SAI ASIC Marvell Barefoot SAI ASIC Mellanox Cavium SAI Gartner 2021 2025 40%200 SONiC SONiC github 2022 200 20%2018-2027%IDC-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E%IDC2022 440.3 17.0%5 4%2027 538.3 2022 206.02 19.46%5 5%-7%2027 274.01 2018-2027%IDC 1:7-5%0%5%10%15%20%050010001500200025003000350040002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E YoY Arista 400G 2018-2027 IDC 2018-2027 IDC 2012-2022 Arista IDC 5G 100G IDC 10Gb 40Gb 100Gb 200/400G 2027 200/400G 130.38 Arista 100G 200/400G 05101520253035402012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221000M 2.5/5G 10G 25/50G 40G 100G 200/400G0501001502002503003504004505002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E100M 1000M 2.5/5G 10G 25/50G 40G 100G 200/400G01002003004005006007008009001,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E100M 1000M 2.5/5G 10G 25/50G 40G 100G 200/400G Arista 2012-2023Q1Arista Cisco value%Crehan Research IDC 2012-2017 Crehan Reasearch 2018-2023Q1 IDC 2012-2023Q1Arista Cisco ports%Crehan Research IDC 2012-2017 Crehan Reasearch 2018-2023Q1 IDC 3.50%5.40%7.80%10.00%11.60%14.60%12.95%14.24%12.82%14.80%19.08%22.71%78.10%74.40%69.40%64.70%57.80%53.10%42.84%40.37%36.28%33.41%29.83%31.67%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0%5%10%15%20%25%Arista Cisco4.90%6.70%9.30%12.00%14.40%14.70%10.31%10.71%10.03%11.69%14.06%16.88%71.40%70.80%65.90%60.60%51.60%49.90%39.29%32.88%29.24%26.23%24.31%26.65%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1Arista Cisco 2022%IDC Cisco29.83%Arisa19.08%Huawei8.57%F55.18%H3C4.97%Juniper3.89%Dell2.80%Ruijie2.55%Others23.12%Cisco Arisa Huawei F5 H3C Juniper Dell Ruijie OthersArista 10/25/40/100/400G Cisco Arista Arista Crehan IDC Aista 2012 3.5%2022 19.1%Arista 2012 4.90%2022 14.06%Arista 2022 Arista 48.91%8.57%F5 Juniper Dell 2022 639 11.2%2018-2027%IDC 2018-2027 WLAN%IDC-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E WLAN-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E WLAN 2022 639.06 11.23%2027 730.20 2022 234.30 14.87%5 1%-5%2027 264.28 WLAN 2022 WLAN 225.49 13.86%5 2%-5%2027 265.87 2022 179.26 3.90%1%-4%2027 200.05 2022/%IDC Cisco50.27%Huawei11.12%HPE8.75%H3C5.72%Juniper2.39%Ruijie2.29%Ubiquiti1.99%Ciena1.80%Extreme1.79%Netgear1.39%Arista1.21%Others11.28%Cisco Huawei HPE H3C Juniper RuijieUbiquiti Ciena Extreme Netgear Arista Others 2022 HPE Juniper Ubiquiti Extreme Netgear Arista 2022 WLAN TP-Link CommonScope HPE 8%Technicolor Ubiquiti Netgear Vantiva Juniper 2022 60%Juniper 2022 WLAN%IDC 2022%IDC Cisco21.03%TP-Link8.86%Huawei8.00%CommonScope7.89%HPE7.66%Technicolor5.80%Ubiquiti3.46%ZTE2.97%Netgear2.73%Vantiva2.23%H3C2.08%Juniper1.82%Ruijie1.64%Others23.84%Cisco TP-Link Huawei CommonScope HPETechnicolor Ubiquiti ZTE Netgear VantivaH3C Juniper Ruijie OthersCisco35.89%Huawei27.22%Nokia14.99%Juniper11.35%H3C2.38%ZTE1.83%Others6.34%Cisco Huawei Nokia Juniper H3C ZTE Others 2021 100G Arista 2022 Arista 18%14%Arista Omdia 2022 12%37%Arista 18%8%H3C 7%14%Other 16%2021 2022 3%4%Arista Cisco 40%Arista 17%HUAWEI11%White Box10%H3C6%Juniper4%Dell3%HPE2%Other7%Cisco 37%Arista 18%White Box14%HUAWEI8%H3C7%Other16%2021 2022%Omdia Arista 1-PIN PIC Arista UCN Arista TCO EOS ARISTA Arista Arista Arista 7500 10W/10GbE Arista EOS OS API Arista API SPI API ZTP Chef Puppet CFEngine Ansible(SSU)Arista VM(VM Tracer)Hadoop LANZ DANZ Path Tracer AEM Arista EOS Arista Cloud Center Arista 2-EOS Linux EOS(Extensible Operating System)Arista EOS 2022 8 5G DPU Pluribus Networks Arista IT Arista Meta Microsoft 2010/2015 CEO 15 Open Programmable Switches For A Businesswide SDN,Q3 2022 Arista Forrester 2-EOS EOS Arista EOS Arista EOS eAPI,EOS SDK,Linux APIs,DevOps(Puppet/Chef/Ansible)EOS API SDK Telemetry EOS CloudVision Telemetry Foreester Arista Arista Juniper 2018 400G Juniper 2018 7 400G PTX IP QFX MX WAN Cisco 2018 10 400G Nexus 3400-S Nexus 9000 Arista 2018 10 400G Arista 7060X4 Arista 800G 7060X5 800G 32x800G 25.6TbpsOSFP QSFP 1RU 128 200G;2RU 64 400G 1RU 32 800G Arista 7060 Arista 3-800G AI Arista 7800R3 Arista AI Spine Arista AI networking Arisata Arista 3-Arista ASIC EOS Tomahwak 2 Arista Arisata TechValidate Net Promoter Score Recognition TechValidate TechFacts TechValidate Net Promoter Score Recognition TechValidate TechFacts 4-TechValidate+80 TechValidate IT 9.3/10 Garnter 5 Garnter Arista 5 Arista AI Arista AI Arista Leaf-Spine AI Arista AI networking 1 Arista AI AI TCP/IP RDMA RoCE and RoCEv2 Arista AI networking Arista AI 100 10000 XPU AI ADCS-7060DX5-64S DCS-7388X5(64x400G/128x200G)GPU AI 576 x 400G 7800R3 AI Arista EOS 18,000 x 400G GPU Arista AI RoCE IB 1 400G AI 400G&800GArista 400G Crehan Arista 100 Gb/s 200 Gb/s 400 Gb/s Arista AI Group 2022 2027 1000 2027 400Gbps 70%2025 800Gbps 400Gbps Crehan D e ll O r o Group Arista Cognitive Campus Arista 2 Arista 650Group Arista 2018 Cognitive Campus Cognitive Campus CloudVision EOS leaf-and-spine spline Arista 2018 8 Mojo Networks Mojo networks Arista Arista%FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E 1,129.17 1,646.19 2,151.37 2,410.71 2,317.51 2,948.04 4,381.31 5,741.00 6,354.24 7,165.29 7,724.33%34.81 45.79 30.69 12.05-3.87 27.21 48.62 31.03 10.68 12.76 7.8%64 64.5 63.8 64.1 63.9 63.8 61.1 60.57 61.46 61.43 64.04 991.34 1,432.81 1,841.10 2,021.15 1,830.84 2,377.73 3,716.08 4,971.95 5,453.40 6,066.87 6,590.77%33.09 44.53 28.5 9.78-9.42 29.87 56.29 33.8 9.68 11.25 8.64%87.8 87 85.6 83.8 79 80.7 84.8 86.26 85.59 85.36 84.81 369.77 538.04 720.58 792.38 749.96 958.36 1,573.63 2,070.69 2,224.54 2,452.82 2,528.86%62.70 62.45 60.86 60.80 59.04 59.69 57.65 58.35 59.21 59.57 61.63 137.83 213.38 310.27 389.56 486.67 570.31 665.23 785.95 895.83 1,021.12 1,180.14%48.66 54.81 45.41 25.55 24.93 17.19 16.64 18.15 13.98 13.99 15.57%12.2 13 14.4 16.2 21 19.3 15.2 13.68 14.35 14.56 15.19 36.28 46.38 57.41 73.99 85.66 108.9 131.99 160.31 183.56 202.15 240.33%73.68 78.26 81.50 81.01 82.40 80.91 80.16 79.60 79.51 80.20 79.64 Arista Arista%Bloomberg%FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E 1,129.17 1,646.19 2,151.37 2,410.71 2,317.51 2,948.04 4,381.31 5,741.00 6,354.24 7,165.29 7,724.33%34.81 45.79 30.69 12.05-3.87 27.21 48.62 31.03 10.68 12.76 7.8 406.05 584.42 777.99 866.37 835.63 1,067.26 1,705.61 2,257.89 2,442.62 2,732.36 2,769.19%38.1 43.93 33.12 11.36-3.55 27.72 59.81 32.38 8.18 11.86 1.35 Gross Profit 723.12 1,061.77 1,373.38 1,544.34 1,481.89 1,880.78 2,675.70 3,502.50 3,947.19 4,464.72 4,930.82%33.03 46.83 29.35 12.45-4.04 26.92 42.27 30.9 12.7 13.11 10.44 64 64.5 63.8 64.1 63.9 63.8 61.1 60.57 61.46 61.43 64.04%-1.39 0.78-1.09 0.47-0.31-0.16-4.23-0.86 1.47-0.05 4.24 479.71 591.5 1,100.03 738.56 782.2 956.04 1,148.59 1,440.95 1,668.91 1,890.18 2,168.92%21.68 23.3 85.97-32.86 5.91 22.22 20.14 25.45 15.82 13.26 14.75 75.24 86.8 65.42 61.9 66.24 83.12 93.24 110.56 125.27 139.36 146.94%-0.64 15.36-24.63-5.38 7.02 25.47 12.18 18.58 13.3 11.25 5.44 273.58 349.59 442.47 462.76 486.59 586.75 728.39 914.15 1,043.46 1,147.47 1,279.68%30.62 27.78 26.57 4.59 5.15 20.58 24.14 25.5 14.15 9.97 11.52%24.23 21.24 20.57 19.2 21 19.9 16.63 15.74 15.91 15.86 16.6 130.89 155.11 187.14 213.91 229.37 286.17 326.96 407.08 485.21 549.99 566.42%19.99 18.5 20.66 14.3 7.23 24.77 14.25 24.51 19.19 13.35 2.99()1.18-4.49-15.45-56.5-39.18-6.14-54.69-119.91-97.32-122.91-155.21%-64.11-479.05-244.34-265.58 30.65 84.33-790.72-119.26 18.84-26.3-26.28-1.95-7.27-18.16-56.5-39.18-6.14-54.69-109.39-128.48-152.1-173.9%-1,427.89-272.34-149.79-211.19 30.65 84.33-790.72-100.01-17.45-18.39-15.7%242.23 474.76 288.8 862.27 738.86 930.88 1,581.80 2,178.75 2,375.64 2,647.39 2,917.11%65.9 96-39.17 198.57-14.31 25.99 69.92 37.74 9.04 11.44 10.19()58.04 51.56-39.31 2.4 104.31 90.03 229.35 370.47 448.26 489.95 576.93%133.01-11.16-176.25 106.11 4,240.66-13.69 154.76 61.53 21 9.3 17.75 23.96 10.86-0.28 14.12 9.67 14.5 16.79 18.23 18.38 19.75%40.45-54.67-4,965.65-31.49 49.93 15.81 8.57 0.81 7.47 GAAP 182.97 423.2 328.12 859.87 634.56 840.85 1,352.45 1,833.76 1,965.13 2,241.67 2,437.67%51.08 131.3-22.47 162.06-26.2 32.51 60.84 35.59 7.16 14.07 8.74%16.31 25.71 15.25 35.67 27.38 28.52 30.87 31.58 30.53 30.31 30.4 Arista%Bloomberg Arista%GAAP%GAAP%FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E FY2022A FY2023E FY2024EArista 4.38 5.74 6.36 1.35 1.83 1.97 4.27 5.9 6.33YoY 49%31%11%61%36%8%63%38%7%Cisco 51.55 56.99 59.31 11.81 12 13.7 2.82 3.07 3.36YoY 3%11%4%12%2%14%13%9%9%Juniper 5.3 5.60 5.62 0.47 0.41 0.48 1.43 1.06 1.39YoY 12%6%0%86%-13%17%87%-26%31%EV/EBITDA EV/Sales PE 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024EArista 28.47 23.03 20.90 10.71 9.82 8.84 34.21 31.52 28.57Cisco 11.13 9.47 9.22 3.51 3.46 3.46 13.78 13.17 12.63Juniper 10.60 7.83 7.51 1.59 1.61 1.60 11.62 11.98 11.27 2023 9 30 Bloomberg Cisco 2023 2023 10 7 Bloomberg Cisco 2023 A Arista Cisco 19%AI AI UEC IB AI RoCE AI Arista AI AI 2023 30%/Arista 2012-2022 3%20%Arista 10%15%Arista Meta 2022 42%800G RoCE AI OEM/ODM IDC 2022 2020 400G 800G CPO 2023 NAVIGATE 51.2T 800G CPO H3C S9827 51.2T 64 800G CPO AIGC 2020 400G 2021 NAVIGATE AD-DC SeerFabric RoCE Switch FCSwitch HPC RoCESwitch InfinibandSwitch 2023 6 800G CPO 2022 400G 2022 400G 2022 400G 22 400G2022 400G S10500X-G S10500X-G CLOS 30%20%BUFF 50%D