20230910_银河证券_轻工制造行业研究报告：利好落地积极布局看好需求稳步修复_23页.pdf

table_main()&22 23Q1 315 Q2 4 2023 912 Q2 Q2 23Q2 14.76%26.48%23Q2 6.37%33.63%23 99.61 18.11%7.36%25%0.21 pct 38%&010-80926000 chenbairu_ S0130521080001 2023-09-08 table_report i F in D _2022 2023 _20230508 _ _2022 _20221107 _ _2022 _20220913-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-08 300 table_research 2023 9 10 /1&.2 23Q2.2 Q2.3.5.8 Q2.8.9 Q2.11.13.14.14.16.18.19.19.20.21 0YAZyRmRpMpOsMsRmRsNmN6MaO9PoMnNsQpMkPqQuNfQpOqR7NoPrOMYmMnQxNpMnQ/2&23Q2 23H1 Q2 2023 227.44 0.8%22Q4 22Q4 23Q1 20.02 10.92%22 23Q1 315 23Q2 23Q2 143.89 8.99%17.41 25.93%1.2.Wind Wind 3.4.Wind Wind&2023 33.25%0.71 pct 22.92%0.55 pct 8.82%0.78 pct-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01002003004005006002020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01020304050602020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%020406080100120140160180 YOY-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%-15-10-50510152025 YOY/3 23Q2/34.89%/20.24%/12.17%+0.91 pct/-1.46 pct/+1.47 pct+4.48 pct/-7.28 pct/+9.13 pct 5.6.Wind Wind 7.8.Wind Wind Q2 2023 186.83 3.98%15.99 6.53%23Q2 106.06 4.76%10.19 20.07%23H1 5.84%15.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 2021 2022 2023H1-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2020 2021 2022 2023H1-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%/4 9.10.Wind Wind 11.12.Wind Wind 23H1 2023 35.6%3.3 pct 25%2.37 pct 8.61%0.63 pct 23Q2/36.12%/23.15%/9.66%+3.91 pct/+1.44 pct/+1.02 pct+1.2 pct/-4.29 pct/+2.41 pct 2023 6 30 MDI TDI 11.09%2.12%4.5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0501001502002503003504004502020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0510152025302020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020406080100120140 YOY-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024681012 YOY/5 13.14.Wind Wind 15.16.Wind Wind 2022 7 2023 2023 1 7 3.84 20.5%7 0.45 25.94%33.14%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%/6 17.18.iFinD iFinD 4-20%+40%4 2023 9 5 30 101.41 22.45%10,028.66 13.73%19.30 20.30 iFinD iFinD 23 8 2023 17 26.43 7.3%811 3.2%7 3.68 2.5%126.1 0.1%1 20%30%2 LPR+20bp 3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0246810122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-06:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-06:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02040608010012001-0101-1501-2902-1202-2603-1203-2604-0904-2305-0705-2106-0406-1807-0207-1607-3008-1308-2730:30:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00001-0101-1501-2902-1202-2603-1203-2604-0904-2305-0705-2106-0406-1807-0207-1607-3008-1308-2730:30:/7 9 1 2023 2023 912 9 N 699/39,800 799/9 8-10 31 699/1.&7.18 13 7.21 7.24 7.27 7.31 20 6 8.1 2023 8.25 8.31 20%30%LPR+20bp 8.31 9.1 2023 2023 912 9.1 1 /8 603833.SH 002572.SZ 603801.SH 603180.SH 2 603816.SH 001323.SZ Q2 2023 520.21 9%4.88 83.47%23Q2 258.44 11.81%5 69.94%21.22.Wind Wind 23.24.Wind Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%01020304050607080902020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300350 YOY-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%-50510152025303540 YOY/9 23Q2 2023 10.72%5 pct 10.1%0.93 pct 0.87%4.35 pct 23Q2/11.91%/10.13%/1.81%-4.7 pct/+0.82 pct/-3.94 pct+2.36 pct/+0.07 pct/+1.86 pct 25.26.Wind Wind 27.28.Wind Wind 20Q4 2023 187.67 2.33%5.87 52.12%23Q2 96.49 4.96%2.32 65.95%0%5%10%15%20%25%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%5%2020 2021 2022 2023H1-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%/10 29.30.Wind Wind 31.32.Wind Wind 23Q2 2023 9.97%5.4 pct 7.59%0.12 pct 2.64%4.27 pct 23Q2/9.37%/8.03%/1.45%-6.45 pct/+0.17 pct/-5.86 pct-1.24 pct/+0.9 pct/-2.45 pct-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002503003504004502020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0510152025302020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020406080100120 YOY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%012345678910 YOY/11 33.34.Wind Wind 35.36.Wind Wind Q2 Q2 2023 175.25 16.9%-1.93 160.8%23Q2 94.48 14.5%1.22 0%5%10%15%20%25%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%5%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%/12 37.38.Wind Wind 39.40.Wind Wind 2023 8.13%0.62 pct 12.18%2.56 pct-1.46%2.8 pct 23Q2/8.82%/11.27%/0.99%+1.05 pct/+1.33 pct/+1.22 pct+1.5 pct/-1.97 pct/+5.33 pct-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002503003504004505002020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%-25-20-15-10-505101520252020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%020406080100120140 YOY-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%-25-20-15-10-50510 YOY/13 41.42.Wind Wind 43.44.Wind Wind Arauco 156 UPM 210 9 8 1.95%2.36%4.2%1.58%3.97%6.51%-0.08%+2.19%+4.16%10%20%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2020 2021 2022 2023H1-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%/14 45./46./002078.SZ 600963.SH 603733.SH 23H1 Q2 2023 234.6 14.47%14.72 15.31%23Q2 120.01 14.76%6.45 26.48%47.48.Wind Wind 3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,000 4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,000-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01002003004005006007002020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%0510152025303540452020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY/15 49.50.Wind Wind 2023 20.08%1.37 pct 12.86%1.63 pct 6.47%0.06 pct 23Q2/19.67%/12%/5.65%+1.68 pct/+1.13 pct/-0.84 pct-0.84 pct/-1.75 pct/-1.67 pct 51.52.Wind Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020406080100120140160180 YOY-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%0246810121416 YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%2020 2021 2022 2023H1-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 /16 53.54.Wind Wind 2023 6 30 6,483.33/14.51%17,990/6.35%2023 180.34 2.84%7.62 16.31%23Q2 94.87 6.37%4.3 33.63%55.56.Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0501001502002503003504002020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0123456789102020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY/17 57.58.Wind Wind 2023 13%1.85 pct 7.19%0.27 pct 4.19%0.4 pct 23Q2/13.7%/7.14%/4.49%+2.8 pct/+0.05 pct/+0.86 pct+1.49 pct/-0.12 pct/+0.64 pct 59.60.Wind Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%020406080100120 YOY-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%-8-6-4-20246 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 /18 61.62.Wind Wind 2023 17 3,035 8.4%7 391 7.2%23&6,483.33 19,060/63./64./iFinD 3C 002831.SZ 002701.SZ-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%3,5004,5005,5006,5007,5008,5009,50010,5002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07()10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08(:):/19 23H1 2023 99.61 18.11%38.67 7.36%54.9 25%6 38%3.28%0.21 pct 1.8 33%1,743 272%3.7 60%65.66.iFinD iFinD&603899.SH-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY YOY-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY YOY YOY/20 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 9.4 10.4 11.4 12.4 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.30.6 20.30.6 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.10 30.10 31.10 32.10 33.11 34.11 35.11 36.11 37.12 38.12 39.12 40.12 /21 41.13 42.13 43.13 44.13 45./.14 46./.14 47.14 48.14 49.15 50.15 51.15 52.15 53.16 54.16 55.16 56.16 57.17 58.17 59.17 60.17 61.18 62.18 63./.18 64./.18 65.19 66.19 1.&.7 /22 12 8 6-12 300 20%6-12 300 20%table_avow table_contact 3088 20 0755-83471683 chengxi_ 0755-83479312 suyiyun_ 99 31 021-60387901 luyunru_ 021-20252671 liyangyang_ 8 1 010-80927721 嫚 010-80927722 tangmanling_