20230813_国信证券_商贸零售行业跨境电商系列专题报告：从Temu、SHEIN、Shopee的比较探析跨境电商产业链建设_63页.pdf

|2023 08 13 Temu SHEIN Shopee 021-S0980517070001 0755-S0980522120001 01 Temu SHEIN Shopee02 03 04WUDWyRqNsRrQqOsRtOsNqR6M8QaQtRqQpNsRlOmMxPjMrQqMbRrQtOuOnPsQuOnOoO 2023 1.1 16%0.82+19.9%5 1%2022 5%Temu SHEIN Shopee Temu SHEIN Shopee 1+2+3+1 2/TEMU SHEIN Shopee A AI 1 2 EPS PE08-11 08-11 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E600415.SH 8.14 446.57 0.20 0.43 0.46 0.53 26.02 19.11 17.70 15.25002315.SZ 31.81 99.02 0.97 1.21 1.52 1.93 18.46 26.35 20.94 16.50301381.SZ 38.00 152.04 0.51 1.12 1.53 2.14-34.01 24.76 17.78300866.SZ 77.60 315.39 2.81 3.27 3.86 4.38 21.08 23.75 20.12 17.70:Wind wind 1-1.2022 42.07 7.7%18.1 4.3%23.97 10.5%2021 2023 20.1 2.1%8.64 0.1%11.46 3.7%1%2%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0510152025303540452013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0510152025302013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%1-1.2023 1.1 16%8210 19.9%2022 10 20 690 Temu SHEIN 3%4/%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%1-2.Temu SHEIN Shopee 1 2 TEMU SHEIN Shopee 1 Temu 2022 9 2 SHEIN 3 Shopee Sea Limited 1 Temu SHEIN Shopee Temu SHEIN Shopee 2022 9 2012 2015 SHEIN Sea Limited 5 Temu SHEIN Shopee Sea Limited 1-2-1.Temu Temu 2022 9 Temu 2023 5 Temu 16 SensorTower,Temu iOS App Store Google Play 2023 5 Temu 1100 Similar Web 2022 12 2023 5 Temu 2023 3 2023 5 Temu 395.5M 2023 5 217.2M 96.44%5 Temu Temu 6 Temu M Similar Web 0501001502002502022.12 2023.01 2023.02 2023.03 2023.04 2023.05 M 1-2-2.SHEIN SHEIN B2C 2008 2008-2011 2008 Google Facebook 2012-2014 2012 2014 2015-2022 2015 SHEIN 2022 SHEIN 150 2022 1.42 2023 2023 5 7 SHEIN SHEIN 1-2-2.SHEIN Financial Times,SHEIN GMV 2020-2022 SHEIN GMV 100/200/463 66.67%SHEIN 2016 6.1 2022 300 2016-2022 74.46%2022 SHEIN 7 4 2025 GMV 806 585 75 36 2019-2022 SHEIN 2022 H1 75 8 SHEIN GMV%Financial Times Latepost 9 SHEIN Daxue Consulting,Forbes,FT,Business of Apps 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005006007008009002020 2021 2022 2025EGMV yoy(%)0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%1-2-3.Shopee:Shopee 2015 2016 Sea Limited 2018 Shopee data.ai 2022 Shopee APP 10 Shopee Shopee 1-2-3.Shopee:Shopee GMV 2016-2022 GMV 81.11%2022 GMV 735 2016-2022 Sea Limited 2017 0.09 2022 72.89 2017-2022 205.11%2022 60%Shopee 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Sea Limited EBITDA 5.07 EBITDA 2.08 2022 Q1-7.43 Shopee 11 Shopee GMV%Sea Limited 12 2016-2022 Sea Limited Sea Limited 0204060801001201402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022GMV yoy%Temu SHEIN Shopee 2-1.SHEIN TEMU Shoppee/13 14 Google 2-2./Google 67%/66%/SKU SKU 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%15 Google 0%10%20%30%40%50%&:/%16 Temu 2-2-1.Temu Temu Temu 1 Temu Temu 2023 2 Temu 2 1100 Temu Temu 20-50 Temu 15 T+1 2-2-1.Temu Temu 2022 11 JIT VMI JIT JIT 24 48 Temu Temu Temu Temu APP 2 Temu$1.37$143.39$2.48-$492.98$0.05-$197.48$0.18-$536.49$1.25-$99.44$0.17-$799.98$0.06-$276.99$0.09-$630.98$0.89-$871.98$0.38-$180.49$0.16-$604.98$0.17-$629.98$0.18-$467.48$0.33-$424.07$0.26-153.49$0.28-$79.98 17 Temu Temu APP 18 SHEIN SHEIN 2-2-2.SHEIN SHEIN Google Trends Finder SHEIN 14 7,SHEIN ODM OEM FOB SHEIN SHEIN 3 SHEIN ODM OEM FOB SHEIN 2000 SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN/SHEIN/流行趋势追踪商品企划 测品 打造爆款优质素材生产面料采购 成衣生产 产品销售商品中心供应链中心14 天 7 天 2-2-2.SHEIN SHEIN,SHEIN 2019 SHEIN 4.62 ASOS SHEIN,SHEIN MES,19 Bloomberg 01234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022SheIn Inditex ASOS 20 SHEIN SHEIN 22 Shopee Shopee 2-2-3.Shopee Shopee C2C 72 Shopee Shopee 21 Shopee Shopee 4 Shopee/eBay/Wish/Lazada/3 100/3 50/Shopee 23 2-2-4+/2-3.eMarketers 2019 124 2022 148 25 2020-2021 Adjust 26 2021-2022 Adjust 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0 1 7 14 30 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2021 2022 24 2019-2022 eMarketers 1101151201251301351401451502019 2020 2021 2022 27 Temu Temu APP 2-3-1.Temu Temu Temu$100 80%Temu 90/30 28 Temu Temu APP 30 Temu Facebook 2-3-1.Temu Temu Temu Facebook Youtube Instagram 2023 6 Temu Facebook 224 YouTube Instagram 8.67 60 Similar Web Temu 40%35 Temu 29 Temu%Similarweb 15.77%21.52%18.12%16.58%15.27%12.74%18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+31 SHEIN%Similarweb 32 SHEIN APP Business of APPs 2-3-2.SHEIN DTC SHEIN SHEIN TikTok 2022 TikTok for Business 3.1 3.6 3.7 SHEIN KOL UGC SHEIN Business of APPs Similar Web SHEIN APP 2017 280 2022 7470 Z 35 0100020003000400050006000700080002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022APP 26.39%28.66%18.03%12.28%8.86%5.78%18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+33 SHEIN%Similarweb 53.79%0.73%14.73%17.13%7.87%2.27%3.50%SHEIN Facebook Youtube Instagram Pinterest TikTok KOL KOC SHEIN 2023 6 TikTok#sheinhaul 109 SHEIN Onesight SHEIN 2023 5 30 4 257 617.92 ZARA H&M SHEIN Similar Web 2023 5 SHEIN 53.79%5 Instagram 2023.5.30-2023.6.26 SHEIN ZARA H&M SHEIN.COM ZARA Official H&M 2936.28 5904.30 3825.93 39.09 58.36-1.26 25741 35+617.92 61.54 33.49 24043.5515009.44 9569.49 Onesight 2-3-2.SHEIN 34 Shopee Shopee 2-3-3.Shopee Shopee Shopee Shopee APP Shopee 6 ARPU 2023E 131.7 340.9 1071.3 209.5 289.2 12 21 15 21 22-24 13 21 12 21-4.25h3h 2.25h 2.3h 3h Facebook Youtube TikTokYoutube Facebook InstagramYoutube WhatsAPP FacebookYoutube FacebookFacebook Youtube Line Shopee 35 Shopee%2-3-3.Shopee Shopee Shopee Facebook CPAS Shopee Google GAS Shopee AMS Shopee Facebook 94.5%Shopee Facebook Onesight 5 31 28 Shopee Facebook ShopeeVN 225 13.64%4135.38 Shopee 2022 Shopee 8 Shopee ROI 22 Shopee 2022 Shopee 76 2018 85.30%2022 26.30%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%7 Shopee Facebook 2023.5.31-2023.6.27 225 4135.38 18.38 59 0.75 0.013 8329.06 0.35 1761.01 0.006 11823.98 0.20 23751.05 0.22 Onesight 2-3-4.+36 Yes Marketing Google Google 43%Yes Marketing 57%Nox 60%2022 38%31%57%18%9%9%1%37 2022%2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%EDM SEO%2-4.Ipsos Paypal 25%10 5%B2C 20%-25%38 39 B2C 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%B2C%40 Temu 36 2-4-1.Temu Temu-Temu UPS USPS DHL 36 Temu 14 Temu 9-10 Temu 2022 12 Temu Temu 50%Temu 36 Temu UPS USPS 41 Temu Temu 2-4-1.Temu Temu Standard Express 7-10 4-6$129$12.9 48$5 48$13 Temu 8 Temu Standard Shipping 7-10 USPS UPS OnTrac LaserShip Express Shipping$129$12.94-6 UPS DHL FedEx Temu 2-4-2.SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN 95%SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN 9 SHEIN 95%36 10 15%-30%8%25%12%30%10%10%3%42 Quickship SHEIN SHEIN Standard Express 9-13 7-10 SHEIN 2022 4 SHEIN 2022 11 SHEIN 2023 SHEIN SHEIN Quickship 5-6 2-4-2.SHEIN 11 SHEIN Standard Shipping$29$3.99 9-13 Express Shipping$129$12.9 7-10 SHEIN 43 Shopee SLS Shopee Temu SHEIN Shopee 2016 SLS Shopee LogisticsServices/Shopee Shopee Shopee 88%SLS 30%2-4-3.Shopee Shopee 平台卖家Shopee 华东仓Shopee 华南仓Shopee 香港仓目标市场买家住址 海外仓SPS 45 Shopee Shopee Shopee 1 3 Shopee Shopee Shopee 2022 94%99.7%4-8 5-15 2-4-3.Shopee 44 Shopee Shopee 46 2020-2022 2-4-4.+0200400600800100012001400 2020 2021 2022 12 DHL FedEx UPS-DHL USPS FedEx UPS 47 3-1./48 SHEIN SHEIN group 3-2.SHEIN 2022 SHEIN 2023 4 SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN Marketplace SHEIN SHEIN 2022 2023.04 2023.05 2023.06 50 SHEIN SHEIN 3-2.SHEIN SHEIN 3C SHEIN SHEIN 2023 6 10000 10 10 SHEIN SHEIN SHEIN 49 SHEIN Marketplace SHEIN 51 36 3-3.2023 Choice 2023 Q1 3 50%Temu 3 Shopee Lazada 4 Choice 5 TikTok Shop SHEIN SHEIN Marketplace 2022.09 2022.12 2023.03 2023.04 Temu Choice 2023.05 2023.07 52 36 3-3.global 13+Temu/SHEIN/TikTok 3-3.AliExpress choice 2023 4-5 5 Choice AliExpress 3-5 100 200 54 5 53 AliExpress global 4-1.Anker soundcore eufy Nebula Ankerwork AnkerMake Amazon eBay 2022 142.51+13.33%2020-2022 23.44%11.43+16.43%2020-2022 15.56%2023 33.65+17.47%3.06+53.80%65%Wind 66%Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0204060801001201401602019 2020 2021 2022%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%024681012142019 2020 2021 2022%4-1.2022 68.76+23.84%+4.09pct 48.25%2022 43.91+7.02%30.82%28.22 1.06%19.8%/2022+14.39%/+11.27%50.9%/19.85%12.61%3.67%12.6%2022+35.71%5.35%24.21%3.66%+2022 79.73+16%55.95%3C 2022 47.97+4.87%33.66%67%68%4-1.2022 10.8 38.8%7.58%2022 Amazon SageMaker 69%70 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2019 2020 2021 2022 4-2.1993 chinagoods 2022 76.2+26.28%2020-2022 43%11.05-17.19%2020-2022 9.19%2023 60%-65%2020-2022 69.53%/42.9%/23.16%2022 56%Wind-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01020304050607080902019 2020 2021 2022%57%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 4-2.2022 8.56 4 4 58 4-2.2020 chinagoods 2022 GMV356.76 112%2022 2023 2 Yiwu Pay 16 Yiwu Pay 2023 1.1 6 1 chinagoods 2 3 59 Yiwu Pay Yiwu Pay 60 Chinagoods chinagoods 4-3.B2B Made-in-C 2022 2.49 CRM X AI 2022 14.75 2020-2022 12.83%3+22.6%2020-2022 31.63%2023 1.6%33%2020-2022 72.95%/75.03%/84.59%61%Wind 62%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0246810121416182019 2020 2021 2022%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 4-3.4 25 AI 7 26 AI 2.0 AI SEO AI ARPU 1 AI 2+63 AI 64 AI 4-4.2012 IT Amazon Wish eBay Walmart SHESHOW Retro Stage 2022 49.09-11.78%2020-2022-2.23%2022 1.85-46.76%2020-2022-25.67%2023+22.82%12.44 0.52+32.57%0.46+28.5%71%72%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%44464850525456582020 2021 2022%-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%0123452020 2021 2022%4-4.2020-2022 47.11%/57.40%/67.40%19.33%/18.72%/15.06%20.87%/16.39%/12.92%Amazon Wish eBay Walmart SHESHOW Retro Stage Amazon 2020-2022 70.12%/85.55%/88.93%2020-2022 15.21%/5.42%/2.98%2021 73%74%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 4-4.63 88.07%2023 2 Avidlove Ekouaer Coofandy ANCHEER Amazon Best Sellers 14 2020 2021 2022 ANCHEER 7.20 5.86 2.67 Ekouaer 6.98 9.96 9.06 Avidlove 4.31 5.50 4.72 HOMDOX 3.92 3.49 1.53 Coofandy 2.63 6.04 9.17 HOTOUCH 1.33 1.56 1.54 Hikole 1.32 0.98 0.40 Arshiner 0.95 1.49 1.40 COOCHEER 0.95 1.02 0.46 ACEVIVI 0.53 0.37 0.15 TEMU SHEIN Shopee A AI 55 +2023-2025 13.26/15.66/17.8+16.05%/+18.05%/+13.66%PE 23.75/20.12/17.70 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E()12,574.20 14,250.52 17,435.60 20,804.60 23,644.34(+/-%)34.45%13.33%22.35%19.32%13.65%()981.73 1,143.00 1,326.47 1,565.89 1,779.87(+/-%)14.70%16.43%16.05%18.05%13.66%2.42 2.81 3.27 3.86 4.38 EBIT Margin13.27%14.81%7.31%8.54%8.52%ROE 16.23%16.70%16.78%17.10%16.82%PE 32.13 27.59 23.75 20.12 17.70 EV/EBITDA20.07 16.23 27.08 19.40 17.32 PB 5.21 4.61 3.99 3.44 2.98 Wind 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032