20230716_东方证券_保险行业海外养老金体系探究之美国篇_22页.pdf

|IRA 1940s 401(k)2022 37%IRA 1974 1500 2023 6500 IRA 2019 5540 760 ICI IRA 401(k)401(k)80%IRA IRA IRA 401(k)IRA IRA 1998-2021 6.1%500 1998-2021 2021 IRA 63.3%IRA IRA 1974 1990 GDP 10%16 2006 30%2019 50%IRA IRA(601318)(01299)(601601)/2023 07 16 021-63325888*1818 S0860521070002 BQK280 1Q23 2023-05-09 2022 2023-04-08 2023-02-19 IRA IRA 2.5 1.5 1.1 1940s.5 1.2.7 1.3.8 2.9 2.1 DC 401(k).9 2.2 IRA IRA.11 2.3.13 3.14 3.1.14 3.2 IRA.16 4.17 4.1.17 4.2.18 5.IRA.19 6.20 7.20 0YBYzQnQmPqRsMmPsPsNnM8OdN7NpNmMmOmPjMqQsNlOnMqP8OnMnQNZtRrRvPqRsQ IRA 3 1 60 65.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 5 2001-2022 OASDI YoY.7 6 1957-2022 OASDI.8 7 1957-2022 OASDI.8 8 2004-2021 IRA.8 9 DB.9 10 DB DC.10 11 DC.10 12 DC.10 13 401(k)DC.10 14 IRA.12 15 IRA.12 16 401(k).13 17 401(k).13 18 IRA.14 19 IRA.14 20 IRA.16 21 IRA.16 22 IRA.16 23 401(k).17 24 401(k)2019.17 25 IRA.18 26 IRA 2019.18 27 IRA 500.18 28 IRA GDP.19 29 IRA.20 1 2021 IRA.8 2 DC DB.9 3 IRA IRA.11 4 IRA.12 IRA 4 5 IRA.12 6 IRA.13 7.15 8.15 9 2022.19 IRA 5 2000 1956 65 7%65 14%20%1982 60 10%2000 65 7%2035 60 4 1 60 65 Wind IRA 1994 2021 57.1%42.9%10 0.01%IRA 1.1.1 1940s 1940s 1942 65 7.11%1960 3.65 1976 1.74 2.2 19.8%7.0%14.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%60 65 IRA 6 2014 65 14%2021 16.6%2022 130 3.333 0.4%2021 0.1%17.04%UN World Population Prospects 2019 2050 65 8481.3 22.4%2 3 Wind Wind 1935 20 70 OASDI DB Defined Benefit DC Defined Contribution IRA IRA IRA 4 SSA ICI 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020 0%20%40%60%80%100%1960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720200-14 15-64 65 IRA 7 1.2 OASDI 96%2022 1.81 65 90%OASDI OASDI 2001 1.53 2001-2022 0.8%OASDI 5 2001-2022 OASDI YoY SSA OASDI SSN SSA OASDI OASDI 2021 OASDI 1.0883 1.1446 563 2022 221 OASDI OASDI 2034 80%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%1.351.401.451.501.551.601.651.701.751.801.85 YoY-2001-2022：CAGR=0.8%IRA 8 6 1957-2022 OASDI 7 1957-2022 OASDI SSA SSA 1.3 2021 56%36.7%IRA IRA IRA IRA 2004 1430 IRA 2021 2730 37%8 2004-2021 IRA ICI 1 2021 IRA IRA IRA 36.6 million 28.2%SEP IRA 8.6 million 6.6%SAR-SEP IRA IRA IRA 27.3 million 21.0%ICI 02004006008001000120014001957196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020-100-50050100150200250050010001500200025003000350019571961196519691973197719811985198919931997200120052009201320172021-0%10%20%30%40%50%IRA IRA IRA IRA 9 2.2.1 DC 401(k)2022 20 19 2022 58%DB DC DB DC 2 DC DB DC DB 401(k)DB 403(b)457 DB TSP DB ICI DB DB DC DB DB 2022 DB 10.67 3.07 28.73%9 DB Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0001974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 DB DB DB IRA 10 DC DB DB DC DB 1994 DC 1.39 2022 9.32 1994-2022 CAGR 7.03%DC 1974 20%2022 46.6%10 DB DC 11 DC Wind Wind 401(k)DC DC 401(k)403(b)457 TSP 401(k)401(k)DC 401(k)1978 401(k)401(k)401(k)401(k)IRAs 401(k)DC 401(k)DC 70%12 DC 13 401(k)DC Wind Wind 02000400060008000100001200014000 DB DC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%DC 0%20%40%60%80%100%TSP 457 403(b)401(k)DC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 401(k)401(k)-IRA 11 401(k)401(k)EET 401(k)TEE 2.2 IRA IRA IRAs Individual Retirement Accounts IRAs 401(k)IRA 16 70.5 IRA IRA IRA IRAs IRA IRA IRA IRA SEP SAR-SEP IRA IRA 2022 IRA 9.73 IRA 1.12 IRA 84.76%9.75%IRA IRA IRA 1997 3 IRA IRA IRA IRA 70.5 2021$125,000$198,000 2023 50$6,500 50$1,000 2023 50$6,500 50$1,000 IRA IRA 6500(50 7500)IRA 6%6%72(RDM)10%59.5 1)IRA 5 2)59.5 IRS IRA 12 14 IRA 15 IRA Wind Wind IRA 2405 50 2775 IRS 2022 IRA IRA IRA IRA IRA IRA 2405 37%50 2775 4 IRA$68,000$68,000-$78,000$78,000$109,000$109,000-$129,000$129,000$10,000$10,000 IRS 5 IRA$204,000$204,000-$214,000$214,000$10,000$10,000 IRS 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000 SEP SAR-SEP 0%20%40%60%80%100%SEP SAR-SEP IRA 13 2.3 401(k)401(k)1986 7000 2023 22500+2022 37%401(k)401(k)16 401(k)17 401(k)IRS Wind IRS IRA 1974 1500 2023 6500 401(k)IRA 1974 IRA 1500 IRA IRS 2023 IRA 6500 50 1000 10%12000 2022 76581 15.67%6 IRA 1974 1500 15%1981 2000 100%2001 3000 2005 4000 2008 5000 2013 5500 2019 6000 2023 6500 IRS 0100002000030000400005000060000700001986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 0%50%100%150%200%250%1986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 IRA 14 18 IRA Wind IRS IRA 401(k)IRA IRA 2004-2021 IRA IRA IRA 2004 8/2021 32/CAGR 8.5%IRA 19 IRA Wind ICI 3.3.1 2001 2010 2013 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%010002000300040005000600070001974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 IRA-05101520253035 IRA IRA IRA IRA 15 Direct Rollover IRA 20%60-day Rollover 60 IRA 60 20%60 20%401(k)IRA IRA 12 60 10%20%7 A B 1;2;3 20%A B 1 60;2 60 59.5 10%;3 20%IRS 1 401(k)IRA IRA IRA IRA 2 401(k)IRA 8 EET EET TEE TEE 1.2.401(k)IRA IRA 3.IRA(IRA IRA)12 EET TEE 1.2.IRA 401(k)401(k)IRA TEE EET()IRA IRS IRA 16 3.2 IRA IRA IRA 80%2019 5540 760 ICI IRA 401(k)401(k)80%20 IRA 21 IRA ICI ICI IRA IRA IRA IRA IRA 2018 IRA 76%19%76%9%22 IRA ICI 01000200030004000500060002015 2017 2018 2019 87.94%12.06%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2017 2018 2019 0%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 IRA IRA IRA IRA IRA 17 4.4.1 401(k)401(k)401(k)2020 401(k)61.7%83.5%43.3%4.1%36.1%401(k)()EBRI/ICI 2019 20 401(k)84%60 401(k)57%23 401(k)24 401(k)2019 Wind ICI IRA IRAs IRAs IRAs 2007 51%2022 43.6%IRAs 2022 43.6%5.6%4.6%46.2%IRAs 2022 42.5%12.5%16.8%8.6%401(k)2019 30-40 54.6%60-70 48.6%30-40 62.5%60-70 64.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%1996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20-30 60-70 IRA 18 25 IRA 26 IRA 2019 Wind ICI 4.2 IRA 500 ICI IRA IRA IRA 1998-2021 6.1%IRA 500 1998-2021 0.96 IRA 27 IRA 500 ICI Wind IRA 1998-2021 2021 IRA 63.3%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0001975197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020 0%20%40%60%80%IRA 30-40 IRA 60-70 IRA 30-40 IRA 60-70-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%IRA 500 IRA 19 IRA IRA 5.IRA IRA 45 GDP 50%IRA 1974 1990 GDP 10%16 2006 30%32 2019 GDP 50%2021 59.67%2022 IRA GDP 45%2008 IRA 28 IRA GDP Wind 9 2022 YoY GDP 2830-0.77%11.11%8.25%19991-13.11%78.51%58.27%11484-17.46%45.10%33.48%Wind IRA IRA 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021 IRA GDP-IRA 20 29 IRA Wind ICI 6.(601318)(01299)(601601)7.1 2 3 4 IRA 21 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer