深度报告-20230510-华创证券-南网能源-003035.SZ-深度研究报告_背靠南网_发力分布式光伏_综合能源龙头未来可期_26页_2mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 05 10 003035 8.02 6.40,EMC 2022/1360/344/115MW 2022 51GW 2023 1 60%2 3 1 2 2023 23-25 35.94/48.53/62.23 24.4%/35.0%/28.2%8.68/13.23/17.85+56.8%/52.3%/35.0%23 35x PE 31%304 8.02 24%ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()2,888 3,594 4,853 6,223(%)11.1%24.4%35.0%28.2%()553 868 1,323 1,785(%)16.8%56.8%52.3%35.0%()0.15 0.23 0.35 0.47()48 30 20 15()4.1 3.6 3.1 2.5 2023 5 10 010-63214656 S0360518070002()378,787.88()163,606.06()242.42()104.71(%)54.83()1.73 12/8.63/5.57(12)-10%9%27%46%22/05 22/07 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/052022-05-102023-05-10 300 003035 2009 1210/alpha 2023-2025 35.94/48.53/62.23 24.44%/35.03%/28.23%8.68/13.23/17.85+57%/52%/35%35x PE 304 8.02 24%003035 2009 1210 3.6.6.8.10.10.11.12.12+.13.14+.14 1+.14 2.16/.17.17.19.20.22 003035 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3 2022%.6 4 2017-2022.7 5 2017-2022.7 6 2017-2022.7 7.7 8 2019 ROE.8 9.8 10.8 11.9 12.9 13.9 14%.10 15 MW.10 16.10 17“”.11 18“”.11 19 16-22.12 20 16-22.12 21 2022-2030/W.12 22/.12 23 2012-2022 GW.13 24.14 25“”.14 26 2020H1/65%.15 27/.15 28 2021.16 29 MW.16 30.17 31 2001-2020.18 32“”.18 33.18 003035 2009 1210 5 34.18 35.19 36.19 37.19 38.19 39.20 40.21 41.22 003035 2009 1210 6 2010 2016+1 2023 4 20 40.39%2022 70.12%14.48%15.40%2 3 2022%Wind 2017-2022 CAGR 25.3%2022 4.24 1.63%2017-2022 2022 5.53 15.56%003035 2009 1210 7 4 2017-2022 5 2017-2022 Wind Wind/40%/20%2022 37.4%/21.0%2022/1.37%/7.99%/5.88%2017 1.24/2.14/4.01pcts 6 2017-2022 7 Wind Wind 2019 ROE ROE 2019 8%-9%2019 2022 ROE 8.9%0.5pcts 003035 2009 1210 8 8 2019 ROE Wind 2022 12.17 42.1%2022 54.1%23.05 79.8%9 10 Wind Wind EMC 003035 2009 1210 9 11 2020“”2022/9.85/7.65/4.24/2.24 34.1%/26.5%/14.7%/7.8%40%2022/6.35/1.64/1.43 58.77%/15.15%/13.26%12 13 2022 64.8%/58.2%2019 2022/1360/344MW 4 115MW 003035 2009 1210 10 14%15 MW 1 2 3 16 003035 2009 1210 11 17 18 18 2022 51.11GW/58%/40%2016 46pct/27pct 003035 2009 1210 12 19 16-22 20 16-22 Wind Wind CPIA 2022 3.74/W 2022 CPIA 2023 3.42/W 21 2022-2030/W 22/CPIA 2022-2023 Wind 1 2 003035 2009 1210 13 3 4 20-25 1 2 3 4+52.7%23 2012-2022 GW Wind+/24 003035 2009 1210 14 24 25+23 20 5%-20%2-4 GGII 2026+14GWh 50%1 2023 2020 2 2024/+1+003035 2009 1210 15 26 2020H1/65%70%27/2022 20%-50%70%-100%0.75/0.5/0.3/003035 2009 1210 16 2021“10”70%“+”28 2021 Wind 2 2022 1300MW 2017-2022 26%29 MW 2020-2021 003035 2009 1210 17/1 2 55MW 62MW 55MW 3 TCL 5A 30 2022 54%2022 2020 9320 2020 22.7 tce 10.6 tce 21.3%2025 3.5 2021 4%10%003035 2009 1210 18 20 4 31 2001-2020 32 Wind/33 34 10%2022 816 2017-2022 CAGR 22%003035 2009 1210 19 35 36 0.75/kWh 2022 4 115MW 37 38 2023 2022 8 344MW 4 379.14MW 6-18 2023-2024 003035 2009 1210 20 39 2022 2023-2025 16.25/25.11/36.57 36.05%/54.46%/45.66%2023-2025 8.92/10.42/11.38 16.61%/16.77%/9.3%18.73%2022 2023-2025 7.70/9.77/10.84 18.94%/26.82%/10.99%2022 2023-2025 3.06/3.24/3.43 9.10%/5.75%/5.98%37.05%/36.93%/36.81%003035 2009 1210 21 40 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 15.08 20.09 26.00 28.88 35.94 48.53 62.23 YOY%23.73%33.18%29.43%11.08%24.44%35.03%28.23%9.31 11.96 15.49 18.08 20.35 25.49 31.14 YOY%22.94%28.37%29.55%16.71%12.59%25.23%22.16%38.26%40.49%40.43%37.41%43.37%47.48%49.97%7.04 8.01 10.00 11.95 16.25 25.11 36.57 YOY%65.64%13.77%24.88%19.50%36.05%54.46%45.66%3.50 3.78 4.23 5.20 6.55 9.73 14.20 YOY%-7.88%11.96%22.88%26.16%48.50%45.93%-52.83%57.71%56.51%59.67%61.23%61.16%3.89 4.74 6.35 7.65 8.92 10.42 11.38 YOY%12.88%22.02%33.81%20.51%16.61%16.77%9.30%2.98 3.46 4.68 6.22 7.13 7.98 8.72 YOY%16.79%16.27%35.20%32.92%14.71%11.94%9.30%23.48%27.08%26.32%18.73%18.73%18.73%18.73%1.38 3.64 6.32 6.48 7.70 9.77 10.84 YOY%377.14%162.64%73.62%2.58%18.94%26.82%10.99%0.70 2.16 4.09 4.84 4.74 5.73 6.04 YOY%533.33%209.16%89.73%18.35%-2.10%20.88%5.40%49.65%40.73%35.23%25.28%38.49%41.38%44.33%2.77 3.70 3.34 2.81 3.06 3.24 3.43 YOY%-33.40%-9.75%-15.97%9.10%5.75%5.98%2.14 2.56 2.49 1.82 1.93 2.04 2.17 YOY%-19.82%-2.75%-26.86%5.72%5.95%6.17%22.89%30.74%25.36%35.03%37.05%36.93%36.81%Wind 2023-2025 35.94/48.53/62.23 24.44%/35.03%/28.23%8.68/13.23/17.85+57%/52%/35%23 35x PE 31%304 8.02 24%003035 2009 1210 22 41 Wind 003035 2009 1210 23 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 789 818 1,102 1,420 2,888 3,594 4,853 6,223 40 83 97 115 1,808 2,035 2,549 3,114 2,305 2,470 3,474 4,565 8 8 11 15 29 31 40 51 40 49 67 85 139 102 121 463 170 211 285 366 0 6 9 463 5 6 8 11 239 658 799 188 231 264 354 486 3,541 4,168 5,642 7,265-33-33-33-33 1 2 2 3-37-37-37-37 675 675 675 675 0 0 0 0 8,514 11,611 16,177 22,017 103 103 103 103 1,887 2,578 3,274 3,972 20 20 20 20 92 83 75 67 679 1,065 1,624 2,192 657 655 654 652 3 4 3 3 11,826 15,604 20,857 27,386 2 2 2 2 15,367 19,772 26,499 34,651 680 1,067 1,625 2,193 500 572 644 716 73 115 174 235 6 215 216 222 607 952 1,451 1,958 1,049 1,707 1,969 2,211 54 84 128 173 0 0 0 0 553 868 1,323 1,785 31 38 52 67 NOPLAT 813 1,188 1,767 2,391 670 670 670 670 EPS()0.15 0.23 0.35 0.47 556 556 556 556 100 149 221 294 2,912 3,907 4,328 4,736 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,905 6,325 11,205 16,980 0 0 0 0 11.1%24.4%35.0%28.2%1,498 1,498 1,498 1,498 EBIT 12.3%46.1%48.8%35.3%5,403 7,823 12,703 18,478 16.8%56.8%52.3%35.0%8,315 11,730 17,031 23,214 6,463 7,331 8,653 10,437 37.4%43.4%47.5%50.0%589 711 815 1,000 21.0%26.5%29.9%31.5%7,052 8,042 9,468 11,437 ROE 8.6%11.8%15.3%17.1%15,367 19,772 26,499 34,651 ROIC 7.5%8.5%9.0%9.0%54.1%59.3%64.3%67.0%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 91.6%111.3%146.8%172.7%1,217 2,061 1,708 2,543 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1,415 1,819 2,622 3,576 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.4-68 36-18-51-363-174-991-1,083 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 231 867 263 247 262 239 220 233 1-488-167-147 204 244 260 242-2,321-4,356-6,116-7,680 21 21 16 17-1,903-4,381-6,071-7,662()-25 0 0 0 0.15 0.23 0.35 0.47-393 25-45-18 0.32 0.54 0.45 0.67 1,065 2,324 4,692 5,455 1.71 1.94 2.28 2.76 660 2,492 4,952 5,847-297-271-363-495 P/E 48 30 20 15 120 120 120 120 P/B 4 4 3 3 582-17-17-17 EV/EBITDA 21 17 11 8 003035 2009 1210 24 2017 2019 2022 2022 003035 2009 1210 25 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 003035 2009 1210 26(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522