20231009_平安证券_银行业证券研究报告：利率下行期银行业基本面和股价表现研究_24页.pdf

2023 10 9*20230105 喆 S1060520080003 YUANZHEQI S1060123020012 XUMIAO 2010 4 16 14-15 150BP/165BP 53BP 11.5+0.7%Y oY LPR 10BP/15BP 9BP 2007 2012 2013 2014 2014 9 12 5.76%14 10 2/24 PB 0.55 15%1 2 3 WUCXwPtOoNrQpRnOsPrOpOaQ9R9PnPqQnPpMlOrQqQfQrQoOaQqRrMMYrMsRuOpOmO 3/24.6 1.1.6 1.2.8 1.3.9.10 2.1.10 2.2.13 2.3.15.17 3.1.17 3.2.22.23.23 4/24 1.7 2.7 3 9 PMI.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.10 10.11 11 14-15.12 12.13 13.13 14“1+30”.13 15.14 16.15 17.16 18.16 19.17 20.17 21 300 28.8pct.18 22 A.18 23 2011-2013.18 24.18 25.19 26.19 27 PMI12 4.19 28 12Q4.19 29.20 30 300 21.1pct.20 31 14 A.20 32 2013-2015.21 33.21 5/24 34 15.21 35 14Q2M2.21 36“”.22 37.22 6/24 2010 4 1.1 GDP PPI 2012 GDP 11“”1.5%2 3.5%3%6.56%6.00%2014-2015 2014 PPI M2 13 7.4%14 4 PSL 14 11 6 3%1.5%1 6%4.35%3 2019-2020 2019 2020 1 LPR 46BP 5 LPR 20BP MLF 35BP 2020 2022 2022 1/5 LPR35BP/15BP 7/24 1 wind 2007-2008 5.25%0.25%7 2019 2020 2.25 0.25%2 wind 3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%-1%1%3%5%7%9%11%13%15%2010-082011-012011-062011-112012-042012-092013-022013-072013-122014-052014-102015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07:GDP:1:(LPR):1:(LPR):5 1 年/5 年LPR 下降46BP/20B P1 年/5 年LPR 下降35BP/15B P-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2004-092005-042005-112006-062007-012007-082008-032008-102009-052009-122010-072011-022011-092012-042012-112013-062014-012014-082015-032015-102016-052016-122017-072018-022018-092019-042019-112020-062021-012021-082022-032022-102023-05:CPI:GDP:1 50BP/56BP 1 150BP/165BP 5 0.25%2.2 5 0.2 5%8/24 1.2 PMI 9 PMI 8 8 0.1 7 24“”“”3 9 PMI 4 wind wind 5 6 wind wind 40%45%50%55%60%65%70%2017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09 PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:40%45%50%55%60%65%2014-062014-112015-042015-092016-022016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-08:PMI:PMI:-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-06:024681012141618010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-06:%9/24 7 1.3 90-04 12 14 15 2021 6 21“”“+”21 10BP 50BP 60BP 2022 4 10 1(LPR)10 8-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000-17%-7%3%13%23%33%43%53%2019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-07:-:10/24 22 15 22 9 5BP 10BP 15BP 10BP 23 6 2-5 10-25BP 2 9 2015 10%22 9(%)23 6%0.3 0.25 0.2 0.2 1.35 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.55 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.75 1.65 1.65 1.55 2.25 2.15 2.05 1.85 2.75 2.6 2.45 2.2 2.75 2.65 2.5 2.25 1.35 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.55 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.55 1.45 1.45 1.45 6 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.55 0.45 0.45 0.45 1.1 1 1 1 16 14-15 150BP/165BP 53BP 11.5+0.7%YoY LPR 10BP/15BP 9BP 2.1 13 16 21 22 15BP/53BP/9BP/12BP 11/24 14“”13 16 21 22+10.2%/-4.5%/5.0%/3.1%6.5pct/11.5pct/7.8pct/1.9pct 22 13 16 21 22-4.2pct/-8.6pct/+2.2pct/-7.3pct+12.3%/+1.1%/+7.7%/+0.4%10 12 56BP 50BP 2012 2013 BP 2012 2013 2012 2013 2.84%2.69%-0.15 16.7%10.2%-6.5%16.5%12.3%-4.2%2.57%2.53%-0.04 14.2%8.9%-5.2%13.4%10.3%-3.0%2.69%2.54%-0.15 22.2%12.7%-9.4%25.0%17.9%-7.1%2.96%2.79%-0.17 25.3%13.7%-11.6%25.3%14.2%-11.0%14.11-15.10 1 165BP 150BP 2015 2016 BP 2015 2016 2015 2016 2.78%2.25%-0.53 7.0%-4.5%-11.5%9.7%1.1%-8.6%2.54%2.03%-0.50 3.2%-7.8%-11.0%5.2%-1.7%-6.9%2.70%2.19%-0.51 15.5%0.6%-14.9%19.7%5.6%-14.1%2.87%2.32%-0.54 13.9%5.3%-8.6%18.2%10.2%-8.0%2019-2020 1 LPR 46BP 5 LPR 20BP 2020 2021 BP 2020 2021 2020 2021 2.09%2.01%-0.09 12.8%5.0%-7.8%5.6%7.7%2.2%1.97%1.91%-0.06 10.1%5.3%-4.8%4.7%8.2%3.5%2.22%2.10%-0.12 17.6%2.9%-14.7%6.9%5.3%-1.5%2.07%1.99%-0.08 17.3%9.8%-7.5%7.8%13.1%5.3%2022 1 LPR 30BP 5 LPR 15BP 5-15BP 2021 2022 BP 2022 2021 2021 2022 2.01%1.88%-0.12 5.0%3.1%-1.9%7.7%0.4%-7.3%1.91%1.80%-0.11 5.3%3.9%-1.4%8.2%-0.2%-8.3%2.10%1.96%-0.14 2.9%0.6%-2.2%5.3%0.4%-4.9%1.99%1.87%-0.12 9.8%4.9%-4.9%13.1%4.5%-8.6%wind 5 9 21 14-15 16 15 9BP/14.2pct/14.3pct 12/24 11 14-15 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2.30%1.82%-0.48%7.0%-6.5%-13.4%9.3%-0.4%-9.6%2.56%2.12%-0.44%2.9%-7.1%-10.0%5.9%-3.1%-9.0%2.78%2.19%-0.59%4.7%-8.7%-13.4%6.1%0.0%-6.1%2.27%1.85%-0.41%2.4%-6.9%-9.2%3.9%2.0%-2.0%2.77%2.20%-0.58%1.5%-8.7%-10.2%2.9%-5.6%-8.6%3.15%2.96%-0.18%24.6%15.6%-9.0%31.0%12.0%-19.0%2.66%2.04%-0.61%15.1%-4.3%-19.4%19.0%9.7%-9.3%2.53%2.27%-0.26%-0.3%6.3%6.6%7.2%8.8%1.6%2.59%1.93%-0.66%2.3%0.4%-1.9%14.0%0.5%-13.5%2.95%2.42%-0.53%22.1%-1.6%-23.6%21.5%3.7%-17.7%2.78%2.06%-0.72%25.4%-6.3%-31.7%23.6%1.8%-21.8%2.43%1.97%-0.46%10.2%1.6%-8.6%16.4%6.0%-10.4%2.47%1.88%-0.59%14.1%-1.8%-15.8%18.6%0.9%-17.7%2.74%2.15%-0.59%41.6%22.6%-19.1%44.7%34.0%-10.7%2.71%2.26%-0.45%12.4%9.6%-2.7%14.5%12.1%-2.3%2.71%2.19%-0.52%16.9%9.2%-7.7%27.1%21.2%-5.9%2.91%2.38%-0.53%5.2%-4.6%-9.8%6.0%-1.4%-7.4%2.66%2.37%-0.29%-4.7%-0.9%3.7%1.8%1.0%-0.8%3.39%2.71%-0.68%30.7%20.2%-10.5%42.3%25.7%-16.7%2.38%1.79%-0.59%7.3%5.3%-2.0%10.7%11.8%1.1%2.53%1.87%-0.66%18.7%6.0%-12.8%12.5%10.7%-1.8%2.41%1.75%-0.66%8.5%-9.4%-17.9%14.7%-4.0%-18.7%3.11%2.33%-0.79%40.1%12.8%-27.4%42.8%16.6%-26.2%3.37%3.46%0.09%12.5%26.7%14.2%13.8%28.2%14.3%2.29%1.93%-0.36%14.4%4.9%-9.5%19.5%7.7%-11.9%2.24%1.65%-0.59%13.7%-2.6%-16.2%18.0%3.8%-14.2%3.09%2.72%-0.37%23.8%23.0%-0.8%29.7%20.4%-9.3%2.77%2.23%-0.54%-4.8%-5.8%-0.9%-1.9%-3.9%-2.0%3.88%2.84%-1.03%30.9%23.1%-7.8%34.2%31.9%-2.3%3.47%2.91%-0.56%-3.0%-4.2%-1.2%-2.5%-2.6%-0.1%2.38%1.67%-0.71%-4.8%-9.1%-4.3%8.0%2.7%-5.3%3.22%2.54%-0.68%12.3%10.5%-1.8%12.7%12.2%-0.5%2.22%2.01%-0.21%35.4%18.8%-16.6%39.4%12.6%-26.9%3.08%2.54%-0.54%18.3%21.0%2.7%19.8%21.8%2.0%3.37%2.60%-0.77%9.9%-3.8%-13.7%10.5%-0.3%-10.8%wind 16 44.6%22.6%22 60.0%/38.4%13/24 16 6.75%8.00%16H1 50%6.73%12 13 wind wind 14“1+30”2.2 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201420152016201720182019202020212022 6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%201420152016201720182019202020212022%-%-14/24 15 12 56BP 50BP 2012%2013%17.7%13.0%-4.7%14.8%11.4%-3.4%26.1%17.5%-8.6%25.4%15.9%-9.5%14.11-15.10 1 165BP 150BP 2015%2016%2.4%3.1%0.7%0.7%1.5%0.8%5.2%5.5%0.3%11.3%10.6%-0.7%2020 1 LPR 30BP 5 LPR 15BP 2020%2021%0.4%12.1%11.8%1.6%11.0%9.4%-3.3%13.7%17.1%2.5%16.2%13.7%2022 1 LPR 30BP 5 LPR 15BP 5-15BP 2022%2021%12.1%7.0%-5.1%11.0%5.0%-6.0%13.7%9.9%-3.8%16.2%13.7%-2.5%wind 5 9 21 15/24 16 wind 2.3 1 LPR 5 LPR 20BP/10BP 23 1.74%2 9 15 10BP/15BP 9BP 3.7/7.8 25bp 0.3BP 0.2%/0.3%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%16/24 17 18 假设活期存款利率下降 10BP、定期存款利率下降 15BP 0.09%3.66%7.79%0.10%4.02%8.26%0.08%2.89%6.82%区域性银行 0.08%3.49%7.08%25bP BP 0.34 0.2%0.3%0.33 0.2%0.3%0.37 0.1%0.3%区域性银行 0.38 0.2%0.3%wind 14 1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.5%2.7%2.9%3.1%2017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-06:%:%:%:%:%17/24 2007 2012 2013 2014 2014 9 12 5.76%14 10 3.1 2012 2013 2014 2012 50BP/56BP 2014 25BP/40BP 2014 19 wind 2005/1/7 20 wind-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%15%115%215%315%415%515%615%715%815%915%2005-092006-092007-092008-092009-092010-092011-092012-092013-092014-092015-092016-092017-092018-092019-092020-092021-092022-092023-09-3001%2%3%4%5%6%7%2008-102009-012009-042009-072009-102010-012010-042010-072010-102011-012011-042011-072011-102012-012012-042012-072012-102013-012013-042013-072013-102014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-101%1%18/24 2012 12 10 31-13 2 4 2012 5 6 7 1 2 11 12 12 10 13 2 50.7%300 28.8 91.5%/67.2%/66.5%A 21 300 28.8pct 22 A wind 2012/10/31 wind 13Q1 12Q1 12BP 2.48%13 12 7.4pct/7.1pct 13.3%/12.7%13Q1 8BP 0.83%13Q1-28.1pct/+13BP 298%/2.46%23 2011-2013 24 wind 17 wind 17-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2012-10-312012-11-072012-11-142012-11-212012-11-282012-12-052012-12-122012-12-192012-12-262013-01-022013-01-092013-01-162013-01-232013-01-302013-02-062013-02-132013-02-202013-02-27-30091.5%67.2%66.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.7%2.7%2011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q4%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q4%19/24 25 26 wind 16 wind 16 2012 4 2012 10 PMI 2012 4 GDP 2012 10 27 PMI12 4 28 12Q4 wind wind A 16+91.5%+67.2%+66.5%12Q3 12A 12 roe 0.70%0.75%0.80%0.85%0.90%0.95%2011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q4%250%260%270%280%290%300%310%320%330%340%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q4%-48%49%50%51%52%53%54%55%56%2011-012011-032011-052011-072011-092011-112012-012012-032012-052012-072012-092012-112013-012013-032013-052013-072013-092013-11:PMI7.2%7.7%8.2%8.7%9.2%9.7%10.2%10.7%2011-032011-052011-072011-092011-112012-012012-032012-052012-072012-092012-112013-012013-032013-05:GDP:20/24 29 12Q3 12A 12 ROE PB LF 12/10/31 93.5%36.0%34.7%25.2%1.11 68.6%40.6%36.4%26.7%0.97 68.1%33.6%30.0%16.8%0.83 61.4%31.4%25.4%21.0%0.83 52.5%28.4%30.6%18.3%0.86 45.1%40.4%38.8%18.5%0.80 44.7%22.5%25.3%24.8%1.14 44.6%13.7%1.8%16.7%0.86 39.7%26.9%25.0%17.4%0.95 37.5%34.7%30.6%22.5%0.98 37.1%30.4%25.0%20.0%1.21 31.0%15.8%15.1%18.4%0.86 30.2%19.2%19.0%20.7%1.12 23.0%13.9%14.3%22.0%1.14 17.9%10.0%11.8%18.1%0.96 17.3%13.3%14.5%23.0%1.24 wind 2014 14 3 11-14 12 31 2014 88.7%300 21.1+121%+109%+101%30 300 21.1pct 31 14 A wind 2014/03/11 wind 2015Q4-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014-03-112014-03-252014-04-082014-04-222014-05-062014-05-202014-06-032014-06-172014-07-012014-07-152014-07-292014-08-122014-08-262014-09-092014-09-232014-10-072014-10-212014-11-042014-11-182014-12-022014-12-162014-12-30-300121%109%101%100%99.1%93.6%91.7%89.7%88.2%86.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%21/24 2014Q2 13BP 2.41%2014Q2 5.4pct/8.7pct 9.3%/1.9%14 14 14 13 14 127 32 2013-2015 33 wind 17 wind 17 2014“”2 M2 4 34 15 35 14Q2M2 wind wind+121%+109%+101%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.7%2013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%2013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q4%-49.0%50.0%51.0%52.0%53.0%54.0%55.0%6%7%7%8%8%9%9%10%10%11%11%2010-122011-042011-082011-122012-042012-082012-122013-042013-082013-122014-042014-082014-122015-042015-082015-122016-042016-082016-12:GDP:PMI-8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%2013-102013-122014-022014-042014-062014-082014-102014-122015-022015-042015-062015-082015-102015-122016-022016-042016-062016-082016-102016-122017-022017-042017-062017-08:M2:-22/24 36 14Q3 14A 14 ROE PB LF 2014/3/31 120.6%7.7%8.1%17.4%0.67 109.6%21.7%24.8%19.0%0.87 100.2%5.8%5.7%14.9%0.67 100.1%15.7%14.5%21.2%0.93 99.5%17.2%15.0%21.0%0.89 93.8%16.3%16.2%19.5%1.00 91.7%7.8%6.1%19.7%0.94 89.2%14.4%16.2%18.0%0.86 87.0%34.2%30.0%16.4%0.91 86.5%16.3%8.3%19.3%0.93 82.9%18.8%16.2%19.3%0.92 81.8%9.2%8.2%17.3%0.78 77.6%9.7%5.3%20.4%1.10 77.1%5.2%4.4%16.8%0.96 74.5%10.5%8.0%19.6%0.93 60.6%7.3%5.1%20.0%0.95 wind 3.2 9 12 5.76%14 10 37 wind 012345678-3-2-10123452010-052010-092011-012011-052011-092012-012012-052012-092013-012013-052013-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09 10 A(%23/24 PB 0.55 15%1 2 2020 3 2021“”:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 1333 26 4 1 B 25