20231007_国金证券_公用事业&电新行业证券研究报告：电改政策驱动下的信息化投资机会_36页.pdf

1 S1130519040001 xujunyi S1130512080001 yaoy wangzhiyao 掘金新型电力系统系列报告二：电改政策驱动下的信息化投资机会+2025 2020 2.3+&BIM 0 1 23-25 7-8%公用事业&电新行业 研 究 2023 年 10 月 07 日 买入（维 持评级）行业深度研究 2.4 1.6 1.1.6 1.2.7 1.3+.8 2.9 2.1.9 2.1.1.9 2.1.2.10 2.2.12 3+.13 3.1+.13 3.1.1.13 3.1.2+.14 3.1.3.17 3.2&.19 3.2.1 BIM.19 3.2.2.21 3.3.22 3.3.1.22 3.3.2.24 3.3.3+.25 3.4.30 4.31 5.34 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 5 2060 60%.7 6.7 YWBYyRqNoNqRpRnOqNoRrQaQ8QaQmOrRpNoNfQpOmMiNrRxO8OrQnMvPrNoMMYqQqM 3 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.10 12 18pm-6am 10am-15pm.10 13 8am-10am 18pm-22pm.10 14.11 15.11 16.11 17.11 18.11 19.11 20.12 21.12 22-.13 23/.14 24.14 25 AGC AVC.14 26 2018.15 27.16 28.17 29/MWh.17 30.17 31 AGC AVC.18 32 AGC AVC.19 33 BIM.19 34.20 35.21 36.21 37.22 38.23 39.23 40.23 4 41.24 42.24 43.24 44 2021.25 45 3.26 46.26 47.26 48.27 49.28 50.29 51.30 52.31 53 23-25 CAGR 5-6%.32 54 23-25 CAGR 7-8%.32 55.32 5 IT AI-&BIM 1 6 1.1 2022 13.3 52%10 50%11.2 84.1%/43.7%2022 58531.3 69.8%2030 2025 2035 2060 11 26 56 43%61%95%2 3 2025 6-7%15.6%4 71%69%67%66%64%62%60%59%57%55%52%0%20%40%60%80%100%30%43%61%95%0%20%40%60%80%100%7 1.2 2060 27%2022 2021 26.9%2025 2030 2060 30%35%60%2060 5 2060 60%2060 2022 6 2022 2022 2060 8 1.3+7 9 8 2.1 2.1.1,2022 31%9 10 0200400600800100012002022 TOP10 0204060801001201401601802002022 TOP10 10 11 Wind 3-6 1 1.5-2 2022 90%80%2.1.2 18pm-6am 10am-15pm 8am-10am 18pm-22pm 12 18pm-6am 10am-15pm 13 8am-10am 18pm-22pm-01000200030004000500060007000800090002022 TOP10 11 2011-2022 14 15 16 17 Ifind 85%2030 12%-13%18 19 2035 23%24%25%25%26%27%28%30%31%31%31%33%0%20%40%60%80%100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0100200300400500-YoY-12 20 2.2,21-/13 22-2025 15%2020 2.3 ACG 1.5%3%3.1+3.1.1 IT AI(SVM)(MLP)AI 14 23/24 AGC AVC 25 AGC AVC AGC/AVC/3.1.2+2018 80%90%85%95%15 26 2018 2018 95%75%-0.2/kWh 95%80%-95%2 75%-1%0.015/kWh 95%2 75%-2019 100%85%-85%-0.4 100%85%-100%90%-90%-0.4 100%90%-2020 100%75%80%1%10 1 1 1000 1%10 1 1 1000 100%85%80%2020 100%80%-80%-0.2 0.25 0.2 100%80%-80%-0.1 0.25 0.2 100%85%-85%-0.2 0.25 0.2 100%85%-85%-0.1 0.25 0.2 2021-80%-1%0.2 A3 A3 1-85%-85%-1%0.2 A4 A4 1-90%-2022 100%4 40%-1%0.2 A2 A2 1 100%4 45%-100%60%-1%0.2 A3 A3 1 100%65%-100%4-1%16 65%0.2 A4 A4 1 100%4 70%-9 0 24 72 15 168 1 15 15 4 15 240 0 168 0 24 15 4+2021 2022 30%35%2030 2017 2021 27 3 4%17 80%90%/25/10 5-6/2022 75GW 0.002 2022 5.3 19.9 1 28 29/MWh 3.1.3 AGC/AVC AGC AVC 30(AGC)AGC AGC(AVC)GB/T 19963 GB/T 19964 110(66)kV CPIA 2018 4200/MW AVC 5000/MW 0.74.094.5915.795.2919.880510152025 4.547.9210.439.738.929.29024681012 18 31 AGC AVC AGC AVC 2018 AGC AVC 10MW 20/99%1%1/1min 10%10min 33%1%10/99%1%1/120s 99%1%1/AVC 15/1/2/AVC 98%1%2/95%1%1/2019 AGC AVC 98%K-K P 1()1-K P 1()=+AVC 98%98%98%-/50 AVC 96%96%96%-/50 2020 AGC AVC AGC 2/10 98%1%1/AGC 50%1/2/0.2/2020 AGC AVC=1-/2 10%/min AVC 98%98%-AVC/100 AVC 3min 5min 1-AVC/100 2021 AGC AVC 2%98%98%98%-/30*AVC 90%85%1%AVC 0.2 AVC 90%1%AVC 0.2 2022 AGC AVC 2min 60s 35%/min 10%3%5%99%99%-1 AVC 98%=98%-0.2 AVC 96%=96%-0.2 1 1000 19 2018 AGC AVC 1500/MW 32 AGC AVC AGC AVC 2018 AGC 98%1%1/AVC 98%0.01/2019 AGC 98%10/AVC 98%2020 AGC 98%20/AGC 1200/0.97 0.85 300/2020 AGC 480/AGC 50/AVC=AVC AVC 0.5/0.1/2021(AGC(ACE)AVC 98%95%=-95%0.1/MWh AVC/1-98%2022=R2/MWh=R3/MWh AVC 98%-98%AVC AVC/1-98%3.2&3.2.1 BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM 33 BIM BIM BIM DH3D DHGlobe BIM BIMEngine GIS GISEngine FWeb FMobile 20 BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM BIM RTU),34 21 35 36 3.2.2 2017-2019 2020-2022 1180 14.5%1/32 480 2023+15.5%122.0%87.4%22 37 3.3 3.3.1 23 38 39 40 SCADA AGC FTU DTU TTU SCADA 24 41 CPEM 42 43 3.3.2 1 25 260 90%2 2021 2020 2021 2023 9 2023 2025 3%-5%2030 44 2021 3.3.3+26 45 3 Next krafttwerke-46()/VPP 2021 0.3MW 0-5 3000 3 47 4 h 60 s 15 min 27 48 10MW 30(Mwh);600/(MWh);,:=;30%2.5(MWh),5MW;20 MW;,0.12/(kWh)=(-)1 MW;15min 15min 30min;100/(MWh),400/(MWh)=;=()(2021 60s 10MW 4h;400/(MWh)=50%;=2.5(MWh)5MW 1h;400/(MWh)500/(Mwh)500/(Mwh)120%,70%;,0.5/(kW h),0.3/(kw h)=/5MW 2h;120/(MW h)60/(MW h)0.6;)/5 MW,/10 MW,2h=;=28,5%4000,500-600,1/8-1/7 1 2 49 29 100kW 50 EEG 2012 EEG 2014 EEG 100kW 2021 EEG/AbLaV 2013 AbLaV TSO AbLaV 2015 AbLaV 50MW 5MW 6kV-60kV 750MW 50/MW 400/MWh NABEG 2021 10MW 100kW 2015 2017 7 2019 2019-943&2019-944(GIZ)IEA 30+2023 7 9-/51 3.4 31 3 0 1 52/-BIM-23-25 935 998 1062 CAGR 7-8%2023 5200 5500 2022 5012 9.7%2.6 21-23 15460 23-25 5500 5700 5900 5-6%2.7 12.5%17%23-25 17%17.5%18%935 998 1062 7-8%32 53 23-25 CAGR 5-6%54 23-25 CAGR 7-8%Wind Wind BIM 55 301162.SZ 2019 20%EMS 23-25 EPS 1.49/1.91/2.43 38X/30X/23X PE 300365.SZ BIM BIM 50%Wind 23-24 EPS 0.17/0.30 41X/23X PE 688191.SH,+2019 Wind 23-25 EPS 0.48/0.69/0.98 40X/28X/20X PE 5339 53734856469949515012550057005900-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01000200030004000500060007000 YoY-64065066568178285293599810620%5%10%15%20%25%30%020040060080010001200 YoY-33 300682.SZ+40%2.0 Wind 23-25 EPS 0.80/1.11/1.44 24X/17X/13X PE 300513.SZ Wind 23-25 EPS 0.23/0.35/0.49 54X/36X/26X PE 300286.SZ AcrelEMS Wind 23-25 EPS 1.12/1.59/2.18 24X/17X/12X PE 003035.SZ,23-25 EPS 0.16/0.24/0.30 36X/24X/19X PE 688100.SH+2022 Wind 23-25 EPS 1.03/1.33/1.67 29X/22X/18X PE 600131.SH+2.0 Wind 23-25 EPS 0.81/0.94/1.06 19X/16X/14X PE 600406.SH Wind 23-25 EPS 0.92/1.08/1.24 24X/21X/18X PE 688248.SH InOS Wind 23-25 EPS 0.75/1.18/1.68 38X/24X/17X PE 000682.SZ 40 23-25 EPS 0.41/0.51/0.64 20X/16X/13X PE Wind Wind 10 07 34 35 3 6 15%3 6 5%15%3 6-5%5%3 6 5%36 C3(C3 021-80234211 201204 1088 5 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 2028 18 1806