20230929_华创证券_火电行业证券研究报告：本轮火电周期的多维度思考_24页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 09 29 PB 03 14 ROE 21 21 5%5%2.75%23M1-8 30.68 4.5%PB PB 100 30%-60%/3%-10%010-63214656 S0360518070002%()36 0.00()9,025.29 1.00()7,660.36 1.10%1M 6M 12M-2.8%0.8%2.9%-1.1%8.5%6.5%-8%2%12%22%22/09 22/12 23/02 23/05 23/07 23/092022-09-282023-09-28 300 2009 1210 ZXFUxOrMpMqRsMsRrMtMrQ6MaObRtRrRtRnOkPpOqQjMqQuN7NqRmNMYtPpMvPqRuN 2009 1210 3.5.5 1 2003“”.5 2 2014 ROE.6 3 2021.7.7.8“”.10.10.11.12.13.13.15“”.17“”.17“”.18“”.20.21.21 2009 1210 4 1 2000-2022 ROE%.5 2 1995-2022%.6 3 1995-2022.6 4 2008-2023.08/%.6 5 2008-2018/.7 6 12-15%.7 7 2016-2022%.7 8 2009-2022.9 9 2015-2022%.9 10 2015-2022.9 11 2010-2022.10 12 2010-2023 8.10 13 GDP%.11 14 GDP%.12 15/CPI-PPI/.13 16 2023 01.13 17 2021-2023.14 18 2023 7.14 19 2022.14 20 2017-2022.14 21 2023.15 22 2022.06-2023.09 PB.15 23 20 2023 9 22.15 24 2023 9 22.16 25“”.17 26/22%.18 27/.18 28 PB%/.19 29%.19 30.20 31.20 32.20 2009 1210 5 2007 2003/2014/2021 1 2000-2022 ROE%Wind 1 2003 2003 80 1996 1998 2.8%95 13.7%4501/2002 75%2002-2005 14.8%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 ROE 2009 1210 6 3000(8%)5400 2005-2007 2GW 2003 60%08-09 2005-2011 12%QFII 2003 37.1%26.8pct 1 2 1995-2022%3 1995-2022 Wind Wind 2 2014 ROE 2014 2 2012-2015 4 ROE 4 2008-2023.08/%Wind-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%30050070090011001300150017002008 12 2009 6 2009 12 2010 6 2010 12 2011 6 2011 12 2012 6 2012 12 2013 6 2013 12 2014 6 2014 12 2015 6 2015 12 2016 6 2016 12 2017 6 2017 12 2018 6 2018 12 2019 6 2019 12 2020 6 2020 12 2021 6 2021 12 2022 6 2022 12 2023 6:(Q5500):/:%煤价下行利用小时 数波动 2009 1210 7 5 2008-2018/6 12-15%Wind Wind 3 2021 2021 2021 2030 25%12 2020 2021 10%19 7 7 2016-2022%Wind 2009 1210 8 1 2021/2022 2022 8 453 2 2021-2022 2021 2021 1439 2022 11 0.4335/3 2022 2023/0.58/0.76/0.04 2003 2003 2021 2014-2015 2 2022 1.86 18.8%2022 8%4%3%2009 1210 9 8 2009-2022 Wind 2015-2022/37.5%/15.8%7.7%/0.9/0.5/0.2/0.1/1.0 2015-2022 5.1%/7.1%/139%122%/9 2015-2022%10 2015-2022 Wind 2010 2022 8 453-100-500501001502002502010-072010-112011-032011-072011-112012-032012-072012-112013-032013-072013-112014-032014-072014-112015-032015-072015-112016-032016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-03%:2020.09 2019.01 2014.01-2015.03 0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 100%110%120%130%140%150%0246810121416182015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/2009 1210 10 11 2010-2022 12 2010-2023 8 Wind Wind 21 2021 20 2022 2-10%2-8%5%5%10%8%0.3962/2022 71860/2918/5353 2022 GDP 0.24%/0.44%2.75%/5.05%31393/33827 2022 GDP 2.59%/2.80%37.36%/40.25%4,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,2005,4002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3603804004204404604802010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8 2009 1210 11 13 GDP%2022 13366/542.86/995.69 2022 GDP 0.04%/0.08%0.10%/0.19%5839/6292 2022 GDP 0.48%/0.52%1.12%/1.21%加权标杆电价上浮2%上浮3%上浮4%上浮5%上浮6%上浮7%上浮8%上浮9%上浮10%0.3962 0.4042 0.4081 0.4121 0.4161 0.4200 0.4240 0.4279 0.4319 0.4359基准用电量 7.19 2.85 2.90 2.93 2.96 2.99 3.02 3.05 3.08 3.10 3.13用电修复2%7.33 2.90 2.96 2.99 3.02 3.05 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.17 3.19用电修复3%7.40 2.93 2.99 3.02 3.05 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.23用电修复4%7.47 2.96 3.02 3.05 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.23 3.26用电修复5%7.55 2.99 3.05 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.23 3.26 3.29用电修复6%7.62 3.02 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.23 3.26 3.29 3.32用电修复7%7.69 3.05 3.11 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.23 3.26 3.29 3.32 3.35用电修复8%7.76 3.08 3.14 3.17 3.20 3.23 3.26 3.29 3.32 3.35 3.38加权标杆电价上浮2%上浮3%上浮4%上浮5%上浮6%上浮7%上浮8%上浮9%上浮10%0.3962 0.4042 0.4081 0.4121 0.4161 0.4200 0.4240 0.4279 0.4319 0.4359基准用电量 7.19 0.00%0.05%0.07%0.09%0.12%0.14%0.16%0.19%0.21%0.24%用电修复2%7.33 0.05%0.10%0.12%0.14%0.17%0.19%0.22%0.24%0.26%0.29%用电修复3%7.40 0.07%0.12%0.14%0.17%0.19%0.22%0.24%0.26%0.29%0.31%用电修复4%7.47 0.09%0.14%0.17%0.19%0.22%0.24%0.27%0.29%0.31%0.34%用电修复5%7.55 0.12%0.17%0.19%0.22%0.24%0.27%0.29%0.32%0.34%0.36%用电修复6%7.62 0.14%0.19%0.22%0.24%0.27%0.29%0.32%0.34%0.37%0.39%用电修复7%7.69 0.16%0.22%0.24%0.27%0.29%0.32%0.34%0.37%0.39%0.42%用电修复8%7.76 0.19%0.24%0.26%0.29%0.32%0.34%0.37%0.39%0.42%0.44%加权标杆电价上浮2%上浮3%上浮4%上浮5%上浮6%上浮7%上浮8%上浮9%上浮10%0.3962 0.4042 0.4081 0.4121 0.4161 0.4200 0.4240 0.4279 0.4319 0.4359基准用电量 5.70 0.00%0.54%0.81%1.08%1.34%1.61%1.88%2.15%2.42%2.69%用电修复2%5.81 0.54%1.09%1.36%1.63%1.91%2.18%2.46%2.73%3.00%3.28%用电修复3%5.87 0.81%1.36%1.64%1.91%2.19%2.47%2.74%3.02%3.30%3.57%用电修复4%5.93 1.08%1.63%1.91%2.19%2.47%2.75%3.03%3.31%3.59%3.87%用电修复5%5.99 1.34%1.91%2.19%2.47%2.75%3.04%3.32%3.60%3.88%4.17%用电修复6%6.04 1.61%2.18%2.47%2.75%3.04%3.32%3.61%3.89%4.18%4.46%用电修复7%6.10 1.88%2.46%2.74%3.03%3.32%3.61%3.89%4.18%4.47%4.76%用电修复8%6.16 2.15%2.73%3.02%3.31%3.60%3.89%4.18%4.47%4.76%5.05%（%）第二、三产业用电成本万 亿 度/（元/度）第二、三产业用电成本增量占GDP比重（%）工业用电成本增量冲击工业企业利润 2009 1210 12 14 GDP%1 5%5%GDP 2022 0.24%2.75%10%8%GDP 0.44%5.05%2/GDP 2022 0.04%/0.08%0.10%/0.19%/15 2005 CPI PPI 2008 CPI PPI 2016 PPI 2009 1210 13 15/CPI-PPI/Wind 2023 16 2023 01 Wind 22 22 22 220023002400250026002700280029003000600700800900100011001200130014002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09 5500/()2009 1210 14 22 2022 44.94 21 11.6%2023 1-8 30.68 4.5%2023/0.58/0.76/0.04 1.38 2023 7 52.3%2022 17 2021-2023 18 2023 7 Wind Wind 2022 2.93 10%2023 8 2955.38 964.8%2022 44.5%17.8pct 2023 8 68.9%22 19 2022 20 2017-2022 Wind Wind 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0001-2月 3月 4 月 5月 6 月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12月 2021 2022 20230.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8山西 内蒙古 陕西2023 2023 7 2009 1210 15 1 9 22 20 1 PB PB 1x PB 1x PB 21 2023 22 2022.06-2023.09 PB Wind 9 22 Wind 23 20 2023 9 22 Wind 5 5 30 PB 1x PB 1.2x 1.5x PB 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%A 0.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.20.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.42022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09 A 0123456晋控电力豫能控股京能电力粤电力A皖能电力建投能源华银电力浙能电力江苏国信内蒙华电天富能源长源电力上海电力宝新能源申能股份赣能股份穗恒运A深圳能源广州发展通宝能源 2009 1210 16 2022 300/30%/40%/50%/60%100 30%/40%/50%/60%20/4.83%/4.14%/3.45%/2.76%/3%-10%24 2023 9 22 100/30%40%50%60%30%40%50%60%000767.SZ 9.64 8.26 6.89 5.51 9.8%8.4%7.0%5.6%001896.SZ 5.44 4.66 3.88 3.11 7.9%6.8%5.6%4.5%600578.SH 16.67 14.29 11.91 9.53 8.0%6.8%5.7%4.5%000539.SZ A 22.82 19.56 16.30 13.04 7.1%6.1%5.1%4.1%000543.SZ 8.65 7.41 6.18 4.94 6.1%5.2%4.4%3.5%000600.SZ 8.08 6.93 5.77 4.62 7.7%6.6%5.5%4.4%600744.SH 3.78 3.24 2.70 2.16 5.6%4.8%4.0%3.2%600023.SH 31.88 27.33 22.77 18.22 5.5%4.7%3.9%3.1%002608.SZ 12.92 11.08 9.23 7.39 4.8%4.1%3.4%2.7%600863.SH 12.10 10.37 8.64 6.91 5.3%4.6%3.8%3.0%600509.SH 3.87 3.32 2.77 2.21 4.2%3.6%3.0%2.4%000966.SZ 6.54 5.61 4.67 3.74 5.0%4.3%3.6%2.9%600021.SH 10.43 8.94 7.45 5.96 4.1%3.5%2.9%2.3%000690.SZ 3.89 3.33 2.78 2.22 3.2%2.8%2.3%1.8%600642.SH 7.80 6.68 5.57 4.46 2.5%2.1%1.8%1.4%000899.SZ 2.00 1.72 1.43 1.15 2.5%2.2%1.8%1.4%000531.SZ A 1.26 1.08 0.90 0.72 2.4%2.0%1.7%1.3%000027.SZ 6.45 5.53 4.61 3.69 2.1%1.8%1.5%1.2%600098.SH 3.51 3.01 2.51 2.01 1.6%1.4%1.2%0.9%600780.SH 1.25 1.07 0.89 0.71 1.2%1.0%0.9%0.7%Wind 100/30%20/4.83%60%2.76%2009 1210 17 25 Q3 22 2009 1210 18 26/22%Wind 27 23 2 6 27/Wind 2009 1210 19 5 1 2 3 28 PB%/Wind 29 2023 5 29%Wind 2009 1210 20 1 23 1-7 22.68 10969 5.1%23 1-7 11372 6839 150.9%1-7 25%/133%/184%/128%/216%/280%/201%30 31 Wind Wind 7 13 246 209.4 32 Wind 2 237.40 246.00 209.40 0501001502002503002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09 2009 1210 21 23 24 24 23 2009 1210 22 2017 2019 2022 2022 2023 2009 1210 23 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 24 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522