20230921_银河证券_电解铝行业深度报告：利多齐聚价格与成本共振开启电解铝利润走阔的价值重塑行情_28页.pdf

Table_Header 2023 09 21 Table_Title-Table_Summary 2023 8 4278 4519 4554 200 32 95%2010 2023 7 20.5%56.8%3.5%2023 2023 2016-2017 2020-2021“”2019 2021 2023 2023 2023Q3 3457/1860/A 2023Q1 A PE 19000/A PE Table_IndustryName Table_InvestRank()Table_Authors 021-20252629 S0130516080004 010-66568627 S0130522040004 Table_IndustryData 2023-09-20 Table_Chart Table_Research 2023-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 2 Table_ReportTypeIndex-1 2 3 4 WUEVzQsPmPoPpRnOrMsNmNaQ9RbRsQnNtRpMkPpPuNlOoMsM6MnMmRwMqQmNuOqNmO 3 Table_ReportTypeIndex-.4.4.5.9.11.12.13.14.16.18.18.20.23.25 4 Table_ReportTypeIndex-2023 SMM 8 4278 9 4290 6.50%2023 4300 8 4519 2017 4554 2017 2022 1 2 SMM SMM 1 2019 4050 314.8 46 35 50 58 4553.8 ALD 6-7 203 8 555 11 7 4.5 20 0%2%4%6%45004510452045302022 9 2023 2 2023 7 0%2%4%6%8%10%3720384039604080420043202022 9 2023 2 2023 7 5 Table_ReportTypeIndex-2 2023 4.5 0 2023 4.5 4.5 4.5 19 19 2023Q1 0 0 19 10 10 2023Q1 0 0 10 5 3 2023/7 2 0 3 6 0 2023/4 6 0 0 11 8 2023/1 3 0 8 6 0 2023/4 6 0 0 20 20 2023/2 0 0 20 3.5 3.5 2023/3 0 0 3.5 28 28 2023/3 0 0 28 28 28 2023/2 0 0 28 8 0 0 0 0 4 4 2023/3 0 0 4 123.2 123.2 2023/6 0 0 123.2 36 36 2023/6 0 0 36 18 18 2023/6 0 0 18 14 3 2023/7 11 0 3 11 11 2023/3 0 0 11 12.5 12.5 2023Q2 0 0 12.5 367.7 327.2 32.5 4.5 331.7 3 2023 11.2 11.2 0 2023/1 0 0 11.2 26 6 20 2023/1 0 20 26 108 48 60 2023Q2 0 7 55 12.5 12.5 0 2023Q2 0 0 12.5 10 8 0 2023/1 0 0 8 10 10 0 2023Q3 0 0 10 177.7 87.7 88 0 27 122.7 20 2010 6 Table_ReportTypeIndex-23.35%2010-2015 2016 2017 2020-2023 157 15 133 24 3 2010%4 2016%ALD ALD 5 ALD 2022 3748 3039 81%5 10 10 4 2021-2023 2021 2022 9 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0204060801001201401601802019 2020 2021 2022 2023%7 Table_ReportTypeIndex-22%115 2 6 35%190 SMM 3-6 22%3 22 6/7 2025 1.6 2020 6000 1110 5000 2022 8112 585 2020 556 192 554 4808 2023-2025 185 1603 2023-2025 190 4 2020-2022 2023-2025 192 5000 4808 556 1110 554 748 6110 5362 wind 5 2023-2025 2023-2025 1787 1603 185 190 123 67 wind 051015202530354045500500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0002018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-06 0.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00010020030040050060070080090010002019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-07:8 Table_ReportTypeIndex-2022 27%SMM 2023 8 31 601.6 555 70 13500 95 2023-2024 120 12000-12500 73.5 168 88%27%6 2023-2025()2024-12-400000 2024-07-200000 2023-12-100000 2023-06-()100000 2023-06-400000 2022 2389.5 24.59 1769.35 309.17 1452 7 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 3434 3748 3938 4128 2138 2390 2726 2935 23 25 27 30 289 309 342 378 275 286 310 336 1552 1769 2022 2310 204 96 74 74 1473 1436 1452 1452-177-78-240-259 wind 9 Table_ReportTypeIndex-SMM 223 IAI 2022 2803 0.79%8 2021-2023 Aluminium Dunkerque Industries 28.5 10.5 2022/1 Aldel(Aluminium Delfzijl BV)11 11 2022/9 Primary Products Hamburg 13 3.9 2022 Niederlassung Voerde 9.5 2.9 2022 Slovalco 17.5 17.5 2022/2 Alro Slatina 26.5 15.9 2022 San Ciprian Works 22.8 22.8 2022/1 Podgorica 6 6 2021/12 Kidricevo 8.5 2.8 2022 Essen 16.5 8.3 2022/3 Century Aluminum Hawesville 25 25 2022/6 Warrick 26.9 5.4 2022/7 Speira 23.5 12 2022/8 Talum 8.4 6.7 2022 Lista 9.4 3.1 2022/8 HydroKarmoy HydroHusnes 39.9 13 2022/9 Valco 20 20 2022 Mozal 58 29 2022/11 Portland Smelter 35.8 7.3 2023/3 406.7 223.1 2023 2022 2020 8 LNG TTF 40%()10.55 2023 5 2023 7 1635 0.44%10 Table_ReportTypeIndex-8 2022 9 MacroMicro 10 IAI 9 2021-2023 Alumar 44.7 44.7 2021/9 Aluar Puerto Madryn 46 23 2021/9 Albras 46 11.5 2022/4 CBA 43 8 2022/4 Aluminium Dunkerque Industries 28.5 10.55 2023/1 208.2 97.75 2023-2026 53.15 30.85 127 157.35 2023-2026 82%0204060802020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07/-4%-2%0%2%4%6%19002000210022002300240025002019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 11 Table_ReportTypeIndex-10 2023-2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 INALUM Asahan 2 2 Adaro 50 50 150+25 25 25 25 200 25 25 100 25 25 200 100 200 PC Cita Mineral Investindo Tbk 50 100 30 60 Taishetl Rusal 22 5.85 42.85 Arvida Rio Tinto 2.65 2.35 2.65 NEO Aluminio Colombia 54 Angul Naico 50 Jh Vedanta 3.5 3.5 BALCO Vedanta 41.5 Mahan Hindalco 5 100 100 53.15 30.85 127 157.35 1561.4 ALD SMM 2023 8 2730 2.83%8 94.7%2010 2023 4161 3.8%12 Table_ReportTypeIndex-11 12 SMM SMM 2023 7 60.18 143.54%87%7 52.17 715%2023 2022 8 2023 2022 2023 2020-2021 106 157 2023 90 90.7%13 14 SMM SMM 2023 1-7 26%24%15%10%11%2023 1-7 2401 3.5%30%4.3%1.7%5.7%15.8%75%80%85%90%95%100%2010-112011-112012-112013-112014-112015-112016-112017-112018-112019-112020-112021-112022-11-8%-4%0%4%8%12%01002003004002021-10 2022-04 2022-10 2023-04()(%)-5051015202530-6000-4000-200002000(/)13 Table_ReportTypeIndex-15 16%17 2023 1-7 2022 15%8.62 40 2023 2023 1-8 4.37 19.2%2.84%20 7 20%8-9 7.31%10.43%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%200220240260280300320340360380-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300350-26%24%15%10%11%14 Table_ReportTypeIndex-18%19%2020-2021 2022 2023-2024 9.48 9.58 2023-2024 10%1%2018 2022 110/2023-2024 1132 1143 103 11 2023-2024 2.6%0.3%11 2023 2023 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 yoy-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2023 823 875 926 978 1029 1081 1132 1184 1235 2022-206-154-103-51 0 51 103 154 206 2023 3817 3869 3920 3972 4035 4075 4126 4178 4229 yoy-5.4%-4.1%-2.8%-1.6%0.0%1.0%2.3%3.5%4.8%13%95%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-08:-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0102030405060708090100-15 Table_ReportTypeIndex-20 21 CPIA 2023 SMM 2023 1-7 265W 56.8%2023 1-7 97.7GW 159%GW 0.65 0.7 2023 1-7 240.6 CPIA 2023 2024 433GW 533GW 80%2023 2024 541GW 650GW 2023 2024 140GW 240GW 350GW 450GW 2023 2024 250 339 52.7%35.6%2023 2024 374 470 48.9%25.7%12 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GW 182 289 433 533%82.3%78.5%80.0%82.00%GW 55 87 140 240 GW 0.65/GW 0.7/GW 118.2 187.7 281.5 346.5 38.5 60.9 98.0 168.0 157 249 379 514 YOY 58.6%52.7%35.6%103 164 250 339 GW 221 368 541 650 GW 170 230 350 450 GW 0.65/GW 0.7/GW 143.5 239.2 351.8 422.5 154.6 257.6 378.9 455.0 251 382 568 715 YOY 51.8%48.9%25.7%165 251 374 470 SMM CPIA 16 Table_ReportTypeIndex-2.0 2025 2030 250kg 350kg IEA 2023-2024 850 960 23.4%12.9%1400 1500 29.3%7.1%2023-2024 196 232 29%18%323 362 36%12%22 23 EV sales EVtank 13 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 352 689 850 960 yoy 166%96%23%13%kg/210 220 230 241 74 152 196 232 yoy 179%105%29%18%650 1082 1400 1500 yoy 108%67%29%7%kg/210 220 230 241 137 238 323 362 yoy 118%74%36%12%IEA Mysteel 2.73:1 2024 2025 28%23%10%8%2024 2025 10%8%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0200400600800100012002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020040060080010001200140016002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 17 Table_ReportTypeIndex-14 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 103 164 250 339 441 yoy 59%53%36%30%74 152 196 232 262 yoy 105%29%18%13%177 316 446 571 703 yoy 78%41%28%23%CPIA SMM 15 690 733 776 819 862 905 948 992 1035 yoy-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-172-129-86-43 0 43 86 129 172 143 186 229 272 316 359 402 445 488 yoy-55%-41%-27%-14%0%14%27%41%55%-172-129-86-43 0 43 86 129 172 CPIA SMM 16 0%-5%-10%-15%-20%0%0-43-86-129-172 14%43 0-43-86-129 27%86 43 0-43-86 41%129 86 43 0-43 55%172 129 86 43 0 CPIA SMM 2023-2024 4270 4397 5.3%2.7%18 Table_ReportTypeIndex-17 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 1189 1029 1132 1143 937 1018 1023 1026 479 553 677 789 457 474 447 445 462 484 471 473 516 525 520 521 4040 4083 4270 4397 SMM 2023 SMM 1-8 2729 2786 58 1 18 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 3831 4008 4161 4268 4040 4083 4270 4397 157 47 90 114 28 27-28-19-15 SMM 19 Table_ReportTypeIndex-24 SMM 2023 9 15 LME 49.54 10.47 53 6 7-8 25 SHFE 26 LME wind wind 40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%0200000400000600000800000100000012000002000-01-062001-01-062002-01-062003-01-062004-01-062005-01-062006-01-062007-01-062008-01-062009-01-062010-01-062011-01-062012-01-062013-01-062014-01-062015-01-062016-01-062017-01-062018-01-062019-01-062020-01-062021-01-062022-01-062023-01-0601000000200000030000004000000500000060000002000-01-042001-01-042002-01-042003-01-042004-01-042005-01-042006-01-042007-01-042008-01-042009-01-042010-01-042011-01-042012-01-042013-01-042014-01-042015-01-042016-01-042017-01-042018-01-042019-01-042020-01-042021-01-042022-01-042023-01-04 20 Table_ReportTypeIndex-27 28 SMM 19000/2016-2017 2020-2021“”29 SMM 1.93 0.45 13500kwh/30-40%15%85%3.8 1800 2.2+93%FOB 5500K 40%9 01002003001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 20202019 2018 201790001400019000240002015-01-05 2017-01-05 2019-01-05 2021-01-05 2023-01-05/2016-2017+2020-2021+2023-+21 Table_ReportTypeIndex-30 31 wind SMM 10220 4725 9120 2022 2018 37%29%32/33 wind SMM 34 35 15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,00031,00033,00035,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 202315002000250030003500400045008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,000 20%25%30%35%40%45%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000 60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%5,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,000 22 Table_ReportTypeIndex-2023 2023 9 17 4645/38%4%18%11%36/37:(1#B):/2019 2021 2023 2023 2023Q1 17381/16407/2023Q1 1077/2115/2023Q3 2735/3457/38 SMM 01000200030004000500060007000800090000100020003000400050006000-50000500010000100001500020000250002013-12-30 2016-12-30 2019-12-30 2022-12-30/2019 2021 2023 23 Table_ReportTypeIndex-A 10 2016-2017 10950/16610/52%A 91%2020-2021 11210/23640/116%A 65%39 A wind 2016 7 A PE 17-37 12 53 PB 1.3-1.9 1 2.5 A PE 16.05 2018 30.04 5 PE 27.81%7 A 2023Q1 A PE A PE 40 A PE-Bands 41 A PE wind wind 1500250035004500550010000140001800022000260002016-01-04 2018-01-04 2020-01-04 2022-01-04/A 020004000600080001000012000140002016-01-08 2018-12-21 2021-11-19SW 11.17x20.61x 30.05x39.49x 48.93x0%50%100%150%2016-01-08 2018-12-21 2021-11-19SW%24 Table_ReportTypeIndex-42 A wind A A A 19 140 250 140 36 36%250 24%100%305 170 120 251 132.4 58.25%120 80 56 60 113.5 56 60 52%66%100%2000MW 6*350MV 47%80%-90%157 8 6 2 2023 97.4 72.68 57.8 73.32 102.33 37.97 24.28 27.61 57.65 4.2 2.15 2023 255 160 115 140 250 82 53.2 55 1500250035004500550010000140001800022000260002016-01-04 2018-01-04 2020-01-04 2022-01-04/A 25 Table_ReportTypeIndex-137 7.8 4 1 2023 300 420 600 6+11 40 3 200 20 30 4 wind 20 519 385 312 14.96 17.1 6.71 PB 2.22 2.31 1.36 PE(TTM)15.2 6.7 18.7/2.07 2.91 2.60 2023 1531 2193 1265 1000/14.8 8.82 7.63 1000/EPS 0.43 0.39 0.16 1000/PE 25%13%20%wind 21 PE ttm)EPS(PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 000933 385 6.7 3.36 2.74 3.30 4.5 6.2 5.2 2.3 002532 312 18.7 0.57 0.57 0.86 13.6 11.8 7.8 1.4 000807 519 15.2 1.32 1.18 1.65 8.4 12.7 9.1 2.0 wind 1 2 3 4 26 Table_ReportTypeIndex-1.4 2.4 3 2010%.6 4 2016%.6 5.6 6/.7 7.7 8 2022.10 9.10 10.10 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.12 15.13 16%.13 17 2023 1-7.13 18%.14 19%.14 20.15 21.15 22.16 23.16 24.19 25 SHFE.19 26 LME.19 27.20 28.20 29.20 30.21 31.21 32/.21 33.21 34.21 35.21 36/.22 37:(1#B):/.22 38.22 39 A.23 40 A PE-Bands.23 41 A PE.23 42 A.24 27 Table_ReportTypeIndex-1.4 2 2023.5 3 2023.5 4.7 5 2023-2025.7 6 2023-2025.8 7.8 8 2021-2023.9 9 2021-2023.10 10 2023-2026.11 11 2023.14 12.15 13.16 14.17 15.17 16.17 17.18 18.18 19.24 20.25 21.25 28 Table_ReportTypeIndex-Table_AuthorsRxplain,2014,2021 Table_RatingStandard 6-12 300 20%6-12 300 20%Table_Avow Table_Contacts 3088 20 0755-83471683 chengxi_ 0755-83479312 suyiyun_ 99 31 021-60387901 luyunru_ 021-20252671 liyangyang_ 8 1 010-80927721 嫚 010-80927722 tangmanling_