20230901_五矿证券_有色金属行业证券研究报告：新能源关键金属市场展望_28页.pdf

S0950523050001|2023/09/01 S0950520070001 -70%3C XVFUxOtOoNoPrPoNnQqPpOaQ8Q7NtRqQoMnOjMnNzQlOnNpOaQmNqQwMmQzQwMnQwO 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002007/12 2009/04 2010/08 2011/12 2013/04 2014/08 2015/12 2017/04 2018/08 2019/12 2021/04 2022/08 CIF CIF CIF CIF VAT VAT VAT VAT FMC Talison SQM TalisonAlbemarle Rockwood Wodgina Pilbara Altura ToC 1/VAT Benchmark Minerals 2020H22022/11+60/14 2022/112023/04+2023/04+01000002000003000004000005000006000002020/12 2021/02 2021/04 2021/06 2021/08 2021/10 2021/12 2022/02 2022/04 2022/06 2022/08 2022/10 2022/12 2023/02 2023/04 2023/06 CIF CIF CIF CIF VAT VAT VAT VAT 2021/2SQM/Wesfarmers Mt Holland FID 2021/3 2021/5/LAC Caucharil Olaroz 2021/7 Pilabra BMX LME 2021/8AVZ Manono 2021/10 3Q Pilbara POSCO Albemarle Wodgina ORE 与GXY 合并完成，成立Allkem2021/11 Eramet 2022/1 Millennial Jadar POSCO 2.5 2022/9 Core Finniss 2022/11 3 SQM 10 17 Albemarle 2022/8 Sonora IRA 2022/7 PPG H 2022/6 2 2022/5Kwinana Piedmont NAL 2022/3 Firefinch Goulamina Rincon 2022/2 29 Maricunga 2020/12 IGO TLEA 49%Greenbushes 2022/12 2021-2025 NAL AVZ Manono 2022/4SQM 21 4 Mt Marion 90 2021/1 Albemarle Silver Peak 2022 64.73/49.40/2021 17.88/12.99/2020 5.67/4.42/2023/1 2 James Bay 6 2023/2LAC 2023/3Arcadia Liontown Pilbara P10002023/4 2023/5Allkem Livent 25.1/SQM Compass ESM Livent 2023/6 CO 2023/7 Patriot Kemerton100%Olaroz 2.5 Zulu Eramet 24.5/Bikita200 2/VAT Benchmark Minerals 2023 Q4 2023 3-5 20242025 3-69%77%59%34%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2022 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e 4 IEA EV Volumes 5 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E 0%0%1%2%3%4%5%5%13%26%29%17%40%25%19%16%22%19%18%17%22%28%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01002003004005006007008002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-7PHEV BEV PHEV 452.6 0-1%1-10%10%1.87.533.150.777.7125.6120.6136.7352.1688.7 6 2023 1-7 29%28%7 2030 5000 IEA:2022 688 26%96%;26%2023 896 32%30%2025 1327 48%2022 1101 13%60%2023 1430 17%30%2025 2376 27%2023-2025 2022 60 LCE 57%83%2023 83 LCE 37%2025 155 LCE 2022 73 LCE 43%2023 95 LCE 31%2025 168 LCE 2022 83 LCE 31%2023 101 LCE 25%2025 180 LCE 2023-2025-500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,0002014201520162017201820192020202120222023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e ESS xEV()PowertoolsConsumer 8 2023 LCE 9 LCE 100kt600kt1100kt1600kt2100kt2600kt3100kt3600kt4100kt4600kt201420152016201720182019202020212022e2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025eTalison SQM Albemarle Livent Pilbara GFL/MRL-Mt Marion Allkem 2023H2 2022 75 LCE 21 2023 101 LCE 262025 187 LCE 86 2023-2025 9%10%5%6%28%27%9%21%2%4%18%25%14%70901101301501701902022 2023e 2025e0501001502002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e LCE LCE LCE LCE LCE 10 LCE 11 LCE 12 LCE 2023 11 2024 74%26%54%46%45%55%600000800000100000012000001400000160000018000002022 2023e 2024e 2025e 13 2023 2025 LCE 14 Wave International,15 2022 2025/75%1/2/16 2025 2021 12000220003200042000520006200072000050100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000 RMB/t kt LCE 2021 20252025 75%2021 75%120003200052000720009200011200013200015200017200004998147196245294343392441490539588637686735784833882931980102910781127117612251274132313721421147015191568161716661715176418131862191119602009 RMB/t kt LCE 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 17 -+18 My Steel SMM 55%14%14%13%44%19 20 My Steel SMM SMM E E 60%40%USGS 20%48%2%3%My Steel My Steel 22 9.94%21-GDP IMF 23 3%300 300 10%23 GDP 24 NPI My Steel Wind My Steel SMM-Weda bay 2.75 Weda bay 2.75 Morowali 0.94 MHP 6 Weda bay 3 Weda bay MHP 12 PT.Ceria MHP 4 Weda bay 4 2 Pomalaa MHP 8 Weda bay MHP 12 Weda bay MHP 2 Pomalaa MHP 4 Weda bay MHP 4.2 Morowali 4 MHP 6 Morowali 5 2.78 P T.YONGYU Morowali 11.2 2023E Morowali MHP 2 MHP 98.62 SMM 26+98.62 25 23 27 15%SMM SMM 15%2+SMM+98.62 23-My Steel 23/24 2%/6%23 23 28.2 My Steel 23 19.41 28.2-A 0.6 16 B 0 0.85 0.96 0.32 2 0.2 D 0 0.6 E 0.5 0.32 F MHP 0 0.65 G 0.18 0.17 2 1.73 3 1.3 I 0.2 0.05 J MHP 0.22 0.28 K MHP 0.5 0.23 L 3 2.55 M 1.25 0.55 N MHP 0 0 O&M 5 2.4 19.41 28.2CH 28 My Steel Wind 29 23 My Steel 30 My Steel-2023 24-25 NPI 31 SMM 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024Q1-3E 248.4 253.7 271.6 315.2 362.9 396.4 85.3 84.9 77.5 83.4 92.0 99.2 58.4 51.1 43.3 41.1 39.0 38.0 37.3 59.2 89.0 114.8 140.1 155.4 feni 39.4 39.0 39.8 38.3 40.0 42.7 8.9 9.8 13.9 30.2 44.4 53.8 19.1 9.7 8.1 7.4 7.3 7.3 243.7 244.9 293.8 310.2 325.0 346.0 123.5 136.9 157.6 163.7 173.9 181.2 43.8 37.0 44.0 42.6 41.7 42.6 13.9 16.5 29.0 41.5 43.7 53.7 38.9 33.7 39.8 40.1 42.9 44.3 12.1 10.8 11.9 11.4 12.0 13.3 11.7 10.0 11.6 10.9 10.8 10.8 4.7 8.8-22.2 5.0 37.9 50.4-23 25 21 62%22 Mutanda 23 KFM/TFM 2323-24 33 25 21 62%DRC SMM 32-3C 3C IDC 2023 11.7 3.2%3C 36 Benchmark Mineral 34 3C 35-37 SMM 1 2020-2025 2 KWh 3 4 5 99 30 200120 3165 23 518035 9 4 603 100037 i ii iii iv v 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%/