20230922_西部证券_房地产行业城中村改造如箭在弦:从深圳等城市经验看城中村改造的方式与影响_27页.pdf
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3.96%499,472 9,137,928 2.74%250,750 5,464,620 2.32%126,908 7,487,150 2.17%162,114 A A 10,466,847 2.01%209,973 106,821,179 16.71%14,163,729 2020 2009 12 1 1 2 3 1 PSL|2023 09 22 8|2 3 3.1 336 91 1044()35 1.2 49%2020 1082 507 189 183 97 55 51 2 2019-2025|2023 09 22 9|3-4-|2023 09 22 10|5-3.1.1 8000 35 29 504 29 75/1.3 1100 6|2023 09 22 11|3.1.2 3 10 10+3 45.9 350 237 478 590 22 51 90 68 925 279 1500 200 68.5 280 386 108 4.7 15 50 60 100 165 2.28 16 10.5 7.6 3.1 4.1 12.8 4.6 14 13 1998 2006 2011 12 1998 2009 2010 8 2002 2007 2010 2007 60%1 1 1 1 1 1.2 30 1 3.5 1 0.9 1 0.9 1 1 60%1 1 40%1 1 1 3 480 28000/23800 0.9=21420/12800 0.9=11520/11000/6500/480 100/60/(3%)120 35/120 30/60/30/1000/(),500 18/80/|2023 09 22 12|3.2 3.2.1 24 27 270 4 539 8500 1 4 1.5 15 7-|2023 09 22 13|8 3.2.2 2009 2009-2014 2014-2018 2018 CBD 4 24.8 686(16/670/17 330 1400 32.91 27.88 51.99 26.74 63.75 90.49 32.7 4 4 3/3 6 6 1:1 1:1 3 1:1.2 4 1:1.1 5/6 1:0.94 3.5 3000/15000/13000/15000/5/6 8000/|2023 09 22 14|19 5 5 8 27 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29.90%600082.SH 29.20%600322.SH 26.28%000897.SZ 6.28%000965.SZ 51.45%600239.SH 20.26%000909.SZ ST 39.16%000514.SZ 63.19%iFinD 2023 8 17 7()()2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2121.1 2070.6 729.7 324.0 280.9 137.4 27.0%26.2%25.7%15.3%13.6%18.8%573.8 724.2 321.0 35.9 39.5 21.8 21.8%20.5%17.8%6.3%5.5%6.8%320.5 315.4 60.6-27.2 20.9-1.2 38.8%33.9%34.4%-8.5%6.6%-1.9%232.7 264.6 128.0 19.3 19.5 9.3 19.7%20.4%17.1%8.3%7.4%7.3%69.4 105.5 48.4 3.8 3.4 0.3 22.7%24.8%11.4%5.4%3.2%0.6%75.6 40.3 29.8 8.8 3.3 1.7 28.3%26.7%15.9%11.6%8.3%5.8%8()(,)EPS(/)PE()2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1109.HK 31.9 2274.77 4.26 4.69 5.26 7.00 6.35 5.66 0123.HK 9.26 372.75 1.10 1.25 1.43 7.90 6.89 6.03 0604.HK 1.28 113.90 0.40-3.01-000090.SZ 6.26 116.97 1.12 1.19 1.29 5.58 5.24 4.87 600665.SH 4.04 34.91 0.59 0.71 0.81 6.85 5.66 4.97 002208.SZ 6.7 53.82-iFinD 2023 9 21 1HKD=0.9340CNY EPS iFinD|2023 09 22 18|5.1 85 3+1 2022 CRH(Land)Limited Commotra Company Limited 59.55%100%9 iFinD 2022 2021 2022 3013 4.6%2022 42.3%2023H1 1702 40.6%2023H1 797 109.7%/2023H1 60%2022 12pct 8 2023H1 3.56%2022 0.19pct 85%2023H1 90%2023H1 93%/|2023 09 22 19|10 11 12 2023H1 13 5.2 1+4 2022 39.78%2019 19.9%89.1%100%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()49%44%7%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1|2023 09 22 20|14 iFinD 2022 2021 2022 1250 8.6%47.7%2023H1 836 71.0%55.2%TOD 2022 42.3%2023+TOD 2022 TOD 221 23.6%2019-2022 CAGR 63.2%2023H1 TOD 185 53.3%15 16 TOD 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()()-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1TOD()|2023 09 22 21|5.3 2022 62.33%100%17 iFinD 2022 2023 64%2022 192 0.6%2023H1 148 192.1%64%2021 322 410.5%2023H1 27 22.0%2023 6 65%15%19%1%|2023 09 22 22|18 19 20 2023 2023 6 30 5.4 2023 6 30 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021-38584209/QQ BBS 91610000719782242D