20230820_华安证券_丝杠行业深度报告：核心传动功能部件 国产替代大有可为_37页.pdf

S00105220700032023 8 20 2 70%market research 2022 20.96 2029 31.72 23-29 CAGR 6.1%2029 19.38 23-29 CAGR 6.9%NSK THK 70%95%Optimus 28 14 14 3 2 4 8 YWCXuNmRoNpOoQmPnQtMoP9P9RbRnPmMnPpMfQrRuMjMmOrQbRnMpRxNoMqOMYpPsR 1 2 3 4 1.1 4 1 2 1.1 5 4 1+2+3+4+1 2 3 4 3 5 4 1.1 6:6 7 1.2 7 70:(1)(19731982)1973 3()1974 10()1982(2)(19821987)1976 JB3162 2-82 DIN69051(3)(19871991)JB3162 13-82 1985 JB/GQ1098-87 JB/GQ F1061-87 JB/GQ1098-87 ISO/TC39/WG7 N179“”JB3162 13-82(4)ISO(1990 ISO TC39 1969 WG7 1982 10 1983 ISO/TC39/WG7 1990 10JB3162 12-91 ISO 1973198219871991 ISO 8 GB/T17587.1-2017 1:GB/T39961-2021 JB/T10890.1-2020 1:JB/T12605-2016 JB/T13814-2020 JB/T13815-2020 JB/T3162-2011 JB/T9893-2020 9 1.3 8 1 C7 C10 C0C5 C3 C5 C7 C P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P7 P10 JIS C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10 IT0 IT1 IT2 IT3 IT4 IT5 IT7 IT10 2 00.12mm 0+/-0.02mm 3 4 80%5 6 2 360 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 20 32 40 50 60 80 100 11 C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10(E300)(um 3.5 5 7 8 18 50 210 10 1.4 90 5 5 9 12 13 1.4:10 14 1.5 80 1942 Carl Bruno Strandgren 10 1986 Carson,WilliamW.Oliver Saari 1996 Erhart,Timothy A.(Electro-MechanicalActuator EMA)(Electro-HydrostaticActuator EHA)11(EMB):15 1.6 Hertz Hertz 3 15 2 3g 0.5mm(3.32mm)12 26%-24%92%-98%90%3000RPS 3000-5000RPS 6000RPS 0 10 1000 60%17 designworld 16 1 2 3 4 2.1 1421.60%17.30%15.20%10.80%6.50%6.50%22.10%21.60%17.30%15.20%19 18 2.1 15 20 1874 1917 1940 1952 1954 1970 NSK Hiwin technologies Crop 1964 1982 JB3162-1982 1991 ISO3408:1991 NSK THK INA 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002022 2029E 2.2 16 2029 31.72 market research 2022 2029 31.72 2023-2029 6.11%2022 3.81 2029 5.45 2023-2029 5.35%2022 12.18 2029 19.38 2023 2029 6.9%2022 4.37 2029 6.12 2023 2029 4.78%21 22 2022 Marketresearch marketresearch 18%58%21%3%CAGR=5.3%2.2 17020040060080010001200140016002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014-2021 12.96 25.6&2014-2021 269 983 576 1406 24&23 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00 2.2 18 THK NSK 90%30%225/181/25 27 2014-2022/5%5%90%THK NSK40%30%30%THK NSK 26 225213204197191187 185181 180050100150200250 2.3 192023 3 Persistence Market Research 2022 2.85 2023 3:,2022 90%2022 Rollvis GSA Ewellix Rexroth 27%26%13%12%28 Persistence Market Research 0501001502002503003502019 2020 2022 2023E 29 2022 27%26%13%12%8%8%3%3%Rollvis GSA Ewellix Rexroth CMC 2.4 下游各行业的发展带动了市场对丝杠的需求：对高精度直线运动系统的需求增加。新能源 汽 车、航空航天和机器人等行业需要高精度线性运动系统来提高其运营效率和性能。不断发展的自动化和机器人产业。自动 化和 机 器人 技术 在各 个行 业中 的日 益普 及推 动了 对丝 杠的 需求。32 33 0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E市场规模（亿元）增速 30 31 0%5%10%15%20%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E市场规模（亿元）增速0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E市场规模（千亿 元）yoy0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E市场规模（亿元）yoy 特斯拉人形机器人Optimus 整体躯干共有28 个关节执行器，其中线性执行器14 个，旋转执行器14 个。具体应用部位分别为 肩部6 个旋转执行器、肘部2 个线性执行器和2 个旋转执行器、腕部4 个线性执行器、腰部2 个旋转执行器、髋部4 个旋转执行器、腿部8 个线性执行器。28 Pitch X Yaw Z Roll Y AI AI 6 3 3 Tesla AI Day 2022 34 28 Tesla 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52 53 54 55-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0500001000001500002000002500003000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020000040000060000080000010000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-10%0%10%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD 3.3+2022 14 2024 104000 4500 750 100000 100000 31()25000 2023 5 2023 140000 2024 0 2024 0 2023 10000 2023 56 584 57 3.4 32 2022 9 6 16,000 100 400 200 3 1 16,700 3 26,540.19 20,500.002 14,000 13,116.92 9,600.003 3,026.00 2,500.004 12,000.00 12,000.00 54,683.11 44,600.00 58 3.5 33 T 0.01mm 500 150mm 2023 3 24 97 9 ACME T 59 60 1 2 3 4 1.2.3.4.5.6.35 36 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%