20231123_东方证券_家电行业2024年度投资策略报告：追寻细分景气把握盈利拐点_33页.pdf

|23 2023 1-10 300+5.92%300+13.64%+8.20%10 31 PE-TTM 14.35 2018 9.91%PE-TTM 300 1.29 2018 13.33%23 AI 23 1-10 742.8 2.07%2024 SKU 21 2023+(600060)(000921)(600690)/2.YWAZxOnQoNmNoQpMsPsNnM8ObP9PmOnNoMtQeRpOmNiNpNrNbRpOqMMYmOnRxNnPrN 3.29.30.31.32.4.45 23Q3.46 23Q3 6000.51 2021 65.53/.1.2.3 iRobot.5 23 2023 1-10 300 2023 10 31+5.92%32 9 300+13.64%+8.20%2023 1-10 1 2023 1-10 Wind 2 2023 1-10 300 Wind 10 31 PE-TTM 14.35 2018 9.91%PE-TTM 300 1.29 2018 13.33%2024-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%300-5%0%5%10%15%20%23/1/323/1/1023/1/1723/1/3123/2/723/2/1423/2/2123/2/2823/3/723/3/1423/3/2123/3/2823/4/423/4/1223/4/1923/4/2623/5/823/5/1523/5/2223/5/2923/6/523/6/1223/6/1923/6/2823/7/523/7/1223/7/1923/7/2623/8/223/8/923/8/1623/8/2323/8/3023/9/623/9/1323/9/2023/9/2723/10/1223/10/1923/10/26 6 3 PE-TTM 4 300 PE-TTM Wind Wind 10 31 6.97%50.98%6.67%-8.61%-11.21%5 2023 1-10 Wind 2023 9 LCD 1+4.79%2647-0.79%7415+6.94%05101520253035402018/12018/42018/82018/112019/32019/62019/102020/12020/52020/82020/122021/32021/72021/102022/22022/52022/92022/122023/42023/811.21.41.61.822.22018/12018/42018/82018/112019/32019/62019/102020/12020/52020/82020/122021/32021/72021/102022/22022/52022/92022/122023/42023/8-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%()()()()()7 6 LCD 2023 9 1.37+13.56%6338+9.95%5763+14.75%Q2 7-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0200400600800100012002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02004006008001000120014002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9 8 8 9 2023 9 1855+1.88%1041+3.55%185-0.96%10-100%-50%0%50%100%150%01002003004005002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01002003004005002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0501001502002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9 9 11 12-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520253035402020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9 指标 品类 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23电饭煲-11%-2%-6%18%-10%-12%-4%4%电磁炉-12%-25%-32%-14%-16%-18%-6%0%电压力锅-13%-8%-8%10%-8%-12%-5%0%豆浆机-33%-39%-36%13%22%29%29%35%榨汁机-22%-3%-30%-33%-40%-24%-24%-13%电水壶-9%-10%-9%0%-5%-12%-5%0%养生壶9%-6%0%-4%-1%-12%-3%-1%破壁机-21%-11%-29%-12%-25%-23%-19%-11%电炖锅-16%-9%-14%-10%-10%-18%-10%-12%搅拌机-14%-12%-1%-18%-28%-22%-5%-12%煎烤机-29%-1%-15%-11%-16%-16%-10%-15%电蒸锅80%72%81%77%68%24%58%30%空气炸锅77%9%-1%-33%-38%-36%-37%-51%清洁电器-4%12%20%35%16%7%-1%31%扫地机器人5%38%77%90%43%67%43%81%洗地机28%31%40%35%25%-4%-2%27%指标 品类 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23电饭煲-21%13%-7%2%-12%-3%-11%-8%电磁炉-24%-13%-14%-17%-16%-8%-8%-13%电压力锅-25%11%-7%5%-13%-1%-2%-4%豆浆机-30%8%-1%-21%7%11%4%8%榨汁机-18%10%-8%-16%-11%-19%-24%-21%电水壶-20%4%1%4%-6%2%-7%-7%养生壶-3%17%9%1%-8%-10%-11%-4%破壁机-25%9%-7%-19%-17%-25%-23%-20%电炖锅-28%2%-10%-19%-19%-22%-23%-20%搅拌机-34%-8%-8%-28%-36%-33%-32%-30%煎烤机-33%2%-5%-11%-15%-1%-8%-6%电蒸锅-14%20%36%17%6%20%9%14%空气炸锅-40%-29%-56%-54%-63%-58%-55%-55%投影仪-22%16%-21%-33%-40%-43%-53%-54%清洁电器-20%2%-10%-9%4%-2%-2%-6%扫地机器人-29%-3%-7%-17%10%3%1%-4%洗地机23%41%6%1%14%8%10%0%线下零售额YOY线上零售额YOY 10 23 1-9 8.48-7.50%-6.30%7.21-23.4%-23.9%81.57-7.19%-7.40%4.87+19.80%+20.1%13 14 Wind Wind 15 16 Wind Wind AI AI-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-22022-42022-62022-82022-102022-122023-32023-52023-72023-9:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-22022-42022-62022-82022-102022-122023-32023-52023-72023-9:-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-22022-42022-62022-82022-102022-122023-32023-52023-72023-9:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-22022-42022-62022-82022-102022-122023-32023-52023-72023-9:11 HomeGPT 17 HomeGPT AI AI 3D 3D TOF AI AI G20 AI AIGC AI 12 1 3D 3D TOF DTOF ITOF Bounding Box 3d RGB TOF 1080*720 640*480 2K 2K AI iRobot Roomba j7+iRobot iRobot AI 13 2 AI AI+18 iRobot Roomba j7+iRobot 10 3.11 21%10 69.82 8%2023 3 23 1-10 742.8 2.07%14 19 2023 1-10 20 2023 1-10 Wind Wind 23 Q3 23 9 1.31%23 8 1.56%24 21 Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05000100001500020000250003000035000400002022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9 YOY-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01020304050607080902022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9 YOY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000250030003500400045002011/1/312011/5/312011/9/302012/1/312012/5/312012/9/302013/1/312013/5/312013/9/302014/1/312014/5/312014/9/302015/1/312015/5/312015/9/302016/1/312016/5/312016/9/302017/1/312017/5/312017/9/302018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/312023/5/312023/9/30:15 22 Wind 2023 Q3 Q2 2022 23 Wind 00.511.522.533.542011/12011/52011/92012/12012/52012/92013/12013/52013/92014/12014/52014/92015/12015/52015/92016/12016/52016/92017/12017/52017/92018/12018/52018/92019/12019/52019/92020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/5:-40%10%60%110%160%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002017/1/312017/3/312017/5/312017/7/312017/9/302017/11/302018/1/312018/3/312018/5/312018/7/312018/9/302018/11/302019/1/312019/3/312019/5/312019/7/312019/9/302019/11/302020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/302022/11/302023/1/312023/3/312023/5/312023/7/312023/9/30:16 24 CPI 25 Wind Wind 26 Wind 152 197 77%65%2013 2022 1.0 76.7 2023 1-8 62.4%58.6%22.1%-5%0%5%10%15%2017/12017/62017/112018/42018/92019/22019/72019/122020/52020/102021/32021/82022/12022/62022/112023/42023/9:CPI:CPI:CPI:CPI:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2017/12017/62017/112018/42018/92019/22019/72019/122020/52020/102021/32021/82022/12022/62022/112023/42023/9:-500501001502017/1/312017/4/302017/7/312017/10/312018/1/312018/4/302018/7/312018/10/312019/1/312019/4/302019/7/312019/10/312020/1/312020/4/302020/7/312020/10/312021/1/312021/4/302021/7/312021/10/312022/1/312022/4/302022/7/312022/10/312023/1/312023/4/302023/7/312023/10/31:20:17 27 28 2023 1-10 2022 276.22 2022 82.98 62.45 35%27%29 2015 10.6%2022 21.1%2015 11.7%2022 28.4%2015 6.2%2022 26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0102030405060708090 10.50%58.60%22.10%0.30%6.80%1.70%0%10%20%30%40%50%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 18 30 2017-2022 10%2017-2022 CAGR11.8%2027 55.17 2022 55.5%2022-2027 CAGR 9.23%2027 64.44 2022 81.61%CAGR 12.68%31 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 北美地区 澳新地区日本 韩国 英国 德国 法国 意大利 西班牙 美国 澳大利亚2 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年扫 地机 器人 销量（千 台）3138 1500 1022 3833 1941 1193 3810 17843 865 351432 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年平 均人 口（千人）126102 51712 66875 83287 67561 59511 47266 330400 25526 858240户均人口（人）3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3/2 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年均 家庭 户数（千 户）42034 17237 22292 27762 22520 19837 15755 110133 8509 286080截至 2 0 2 2 年扫 地机 器人 保有 率 7.47%8.70%4.59%13.80%8.62%6.01%24.18%16.20%10.17%12.28%2 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年均 价（美元/台）371 512 274 635 315 346 379 342 385/2 0 2 3-2 0 2 7 年均 价（美元/台）323 512 274 635 315 346 379 342 385/预计 2 0 2 3-2 0 2 7 年销 量合 计(千台）3911 2415 1785 6694 3126 1921 6135 31165 1511 58663截至 2 0 2 7 年扫 地机 器人 保有 率 9.30%14.01%8.01%24.11%13.88%9.68%38.94%28.30%17.76%20.51%2 0 2 2 年销 售额（百 万美 元）228 199 88 546 157 99 402 1722 107 35482 0 2 7 年销 售额（百 万美 元）248 300 133 915 251 146 602 2741 180 55172 0 2 2-2 0 2 7 年销 售额 C A GR 1.66%8.60%8.72%10.87%9.85%8.12%8.43%9.74%10.97%9.23%西欧地区 亚太地区合计 19 32 2024 2 LCD OLED LG 2014 52.9%2023 47.1%TCL 2014 2.8%2022 16.3%33 34 2024 北美地区 澳新地区日本 韩国 英国 德国 法国 意大利 西班牙 美国 澳大利亚2 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年扫 地机 器人 销量（千 台）3138 1500 1022 3833 1941 1193 3810 17843 865 351432 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年平 均人 口（千人）126102 51712 66875 83287 67561 59511 47266 330400 25526 858240户均人口（人）3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3/2 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年均 家庭 户数（千 户）42034 17237 22292 27762 22520 19837 15755 110133 8509 286080截至 2 0 2 2 年扫 地机 器人 保有 率 7.47%8.70%4.59%13.80%8.62%6.01%24.18%16.20%10.17%12.28%2 0 1 8-2 0 2 2 年均 价（美元/台）371 512 274 635 315 346 379 342 385/2 0 2 3-2 0 2 7 年均 价（美元/台）323 512 314 727 315 346 379 392 441/预计 2 0 2 3-2 0 2 7 年销 量合 计(千台）3911 2619 1883 7061 3390 2083 6654 32874 1594 62069截至 2 0 2 7 年扫 地机 器人 保有 率 9.30%15.19%8.45%25.43%15.05%10.50%42.23%29.85%18.73%21.70%2 0 2 2 年销 售额（百 万美 元）228 199 88 546 157 99 402 1722 107 35482 0 2 7 年销 售额（百 万美 元）248 326 160 1104 272 158 653 3305 217 64442 0 2 2-2 0 2 7 年销 售额 C A GR 1.66%10.37%12.86%15.10%11.64%9.89%10.20%13.92%15.20%12.68%西欧地区 亚太地区合计-10%-5%0%5%10%00.511.522.5200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023E LG TCL 20 35 SKU iRobot 2021 9 j7+S7+iRobot 3 iRobot iRobot S9+iRobot j7+S7+Q Revo S8 Pro Ultra 2019 5 2021 9 2021 9 2023 6 2023 6$600.00$800.00$950.00$900.00$1,600.00 LDS LDS+3D LDS+3D iRobot iRobot 21 Q1 62%2023 Q3 44%21 Q1 7%23 Q3 16%21 36 SKU 17%10%SKU 37 SKU 2019 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3Irobot Roborock Ecovacs Shark05010015020025030035021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3Irobot Roborock Ecovacs Shark 22 FBA(Fulfilled by Amazon)FBA 38 2008-2022 2022 2 1.53 10%ecommerceDB GMV 2022 2010 26%Youtube Tik Tok KOL 39 40 GMV ecommerceDB 0%10%20%30%40%50%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10%0%10%20%30%40%00.511.522019 2020 2021 2022 YOY YOY01002003004005006007008009002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E GMV GMV 23 TCL 19 1 2735 2354 23 9 3919 4380 TCL 19 1 3896 3552 23 9 6355 6099 41 42 AVC 2023 75 18.7%6.2 85 5.5%3.3 Omdia 2023 9 32 360 2023 1 65 75 85 52 2022 LCD 8.88 9.71%LCD 2.19 5.70%8K OLED 6000 010002000300040005000600020/120/420/720/1021/121/421/721/1022/122/422/722/1023/123/423/7 TCL 01000200030004000500060007000800020/120/420/720/1021/121/421/721/1022/122/422/722/1023/123/423/7 TCL 24 43 44 Omdia Omdia 45 23Q3 46 23Q3 6000 21 2023 10 27 CCFI 1077.75-0.7%-56.42%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,0002015/32015/92016/32016/92017/32017/92018/32018/92019/32019/92020/32020/92021/32021/92022/32022/92023/32023/9 yoy-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002015/32015/92016/32016/92017/32017/92018/32018/92019/32019/92020/32020/92021/32021/92022/32022/92023/32023/9 yoy-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%0%5%10%15%20%25%32 43 55 65 75 85 86 98 23Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%25 47 CCFI Wind 2023 10+7.42%+4.17%-2.26%-4.68%2021 23 48 49 Wind Wind 50 Wind 010002000300040005000600070002020/1/32020/2/212020/3/272020/5/12020/6/52020/7/102020/8/142020/9/182020/10/232020/11/272020/12/312021/2/52021/3/192021/4/232021/5/282021/7/22021/8/62021/9/102021/10/152021/11/192021/12/242022/1/282022/3/112022/4/152022/5/202022/6/242022/7/292022/9/22022/10/142022/11/182022/12/232023/2/32023/3/102023/4/142023/5/192023/6/212023/7/282023/9/12023/10/13-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%010002000300040005000600070002020/1/312020/4/302020/7/312020/10/312021/1/312021/4/302021/7/312021/10/312022/1/312022/4/302022/7/312022/10/312023/1/312023/4/302023/7/312023/10/31(1.0mm)/(1.0mm)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0200400600800100012002020/1/312020/4/302020/7/312020/10/312021/1/312021/4/302021/7/312021/10/312022/1/312022/4/302022/7/312022/10/312023/1/312023/4/302023/7/312023/10/31-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0200040006000800010000120002020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/302022/11/302023/1/312023/3/312023/5/312023/7/312023/9/302023/11/30/26 Omdia2021 2 2 65 443 OC 226 51%ROC ROM 67 73 15%17%2023 Q2 51 2021 65 Omdia 52 Wind LCD 2 TV TV 51%15%17%17%PanelBrand-ROCOEM-ROCOthers-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%yoy TCL yoy yoy 65 55 50 32 27 53/Wind LCD LCD BOE CHOT CSOT HKC 23 9 LCD 63%DSCC G7 5 2-3%54 LCD 55 G7 DSCC TV TV 2 TV 0501001502002503003502016-52016-82016-112017-22017-52017-82017-112018-22018-52018-82018-112019-22019-52019-82019-112020-22020-52020-82020-112021-22021-52021-82021-112022-22022-52022-82022-112023-22023-52023-832 40 42/43 50 55 650%5%10%15%20%25%30%2022/92022/102022/112022/122023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/9AUO BOE CHOT CSOTHKC Innolux LGD Sharp-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0501001502002503003504002020 2021 2022 2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E yoy 28 56 23 2023 2023 3 832.59,7.96%28.78 2.71%39 1.11%186.6 36.75 21.84%57 Wind 2023 3 26.56%8.82%71.93,15.21%42.12%13.51%3.87 13.84%33.96%9.62%3.53 9.67%12.87%2.77%3.99 2.23%35.59%15.09%5.70 15.82%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%00.511.522.5-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0200004000060000800001000001200002020H1 2020A 2021H1 2021A 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023Q3CJSC CJSC CJSC CJSC CJSC YOY YOY YOY YOY YOY 29 58 Wind 2023 3 10.29%20.28%15.54%4.80%9.26%2020 59 Wind 2023 Q3 39.70 10%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02000400060008000100002020H1 2020A 2021H1 2021A 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023Q3CJSC CJSC CJSC CJSC CJSC YOY YOY YOY YOY YOY0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%2020H1 2020A 2021H1 2021A 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023Q3CJSC CJSC CJSC CJSC CJSC 30 60 KOL 61+(600060)(000921)050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 31(600690)/32 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%