20230730_招商证券_通信行业光模块产业链梳理系列报告：模块封装环节模块厂商AI受益路径明确拥抱800G增量需求_32页.pdf

|2023 07 30 AI 800G TMT/ChatGPT AI 23 2024 800G PCB CPO 800G 800G 400G 200G 800G 800G 5G 800G 1.6T 800G 800G 800G 800G 400G 400G ZR/ZR+LPO 800G 800G 25G 70%DFB 100%25G vcsel+%191 3.8 2838.8 3.4 2081.9 2.9%1m 6m 12m-7.4 23.7 19.1-8.9 30.4 26.7 1 11 5.5G 2023-07-02 2 9 AI 0 1 2023-06-17 3 2023-05-23 S1090522060001 S1090523070005-30-20-10010203040Jul/22 Nov/22 Mar/23 Jul/23(%)300 2 100G/200G/400G 100G/200G PAM4 100G 100G NRZ 10G40/80kmDWDM/CWDMSFP 2018 100G 400G SIP TFLN 800G finisar CPO 800G AI 800G 800G 22EPS 23EPS 23PE PB 300308.SZ 101.9 1.52 1.97 64.3 8.2 002281.SZ 24.4 0.76 0.81 37.6 3.1 WUEVzQmRoNmNoQoNnQtMrQbR8Q7NoMpPmOmPkPnNoRjMtQpO8OpOoQwMpOwPxNmQsM 3.6.6 CPO.7 1.9 2.9 800G.10 1.11 2 PON.12.12 1.13 2.14 3.15+.16 1.18 2.18 3+.19 4.20.21 1.22 2.22 3.23.23 1.25 2.25 3.26 4 Oclaro.26.27.29 1.29 4 2.30 3.30 4.31 1.6 2 2021.6 3 2022.6 4(2010-2022).7 5.8 6 2021-2022.8 7.8 8 2022.8 9.10 10.11 11 2018-2022.11 12.11 13.12 14 PON.12 15.13 16 2017-2022.13 17.13 18 2022.13 19.13 20.14 21.15 22.17 23 2013-2022.17 24.17 25 2022.18 26.18 5 27.21 28 2018-2022.21 29.21 30 2022.22 31.23 32.23 33.24 34 2018-2022.24 35.24 36.24 37.28 38 2020-2022.28 39.28 40.28 41.29 42 2018-2022.29 43.29 44.30 6 1 LightCounting 2010 28 2021 87 50%2022 96.4 69.1 57.1 2 2021 3 2022 LightCounting 2022 6 10 2022 LightCounting 2022 TOP10 7 3 2010 WTD 2016 2018 7 2022 1 4 5 6 7 8 10 Coherent Cisco 2022 50 4(2010-2022)2010 2016 2018 2020 2021 2022 1 Finisar Finisar Finisar-(Finisar)/-(Finisar)/Coherent(tie)2 Opnext 3 Sumitomo(Acacia)4 Avago Acacia()5 Source Photonics FOIT(Avago)FOIT(Avago)6 Fujitsu Oclaro Lumentum/Oclaro 7 JDSU Acacia Interl 8 Emcore Sumitomo Intel 9 Lumentum AOI Intel 10 NeoPhotonics Source Photonics Sumitomo Intel Source Photonics Lightcounting CPO 2022 87.46 37.44%6.66 25.71%2022 96.42 25.29%12.24 39.57%29.31%2023 Q1 18.37 12.04%2.50 14.95%29.55%3.27pct 8 5 6 2021-2022 7 100/200/400/800G 5G 2022 90.7%8 2022 9 1 2022 618 29.56%2020 2022 800G OSFP OSFP-DD 800G 800G OSEP2*FR4 OSFP-DD 800G DR8+2023 3 OFC 1.6T AI 1 800G OSFP 800G QSFP-DD 4x100Gx2 8X100G EML 800G 2 2023 3 24 400G ZR/OpenZR+QSFP-DD QSFP-DD MSA CMIS OIF OpenZR plus 500 IPoverDWDM ROADM/ROADM 400G ZR ZR+100G 200G 400G CFP CFP2 OSFP QSFP-DD 800G OSFP/QSFP-DD DR8+DSP 400G DR4 400G DSP CFP2 QSFP-DD 5G 10 9 800G 2022 33.11 13.83%9.04 36.51%7.84 31.15%2023Q1 6.00 18.73%1.08 18.57%1.06 22.66%PON PON(PON)11 10 11 2018-2022 12 1 90%2021 28.4 42.2%97.7%2022 32.48 14.38%98.1%12 13 2 PON PON(PON)EPON GPON PON ODN PON(PON)OLT ONU PON 2022 PON 0.26 0.79%0.36 1.09%14 PON 2022 36.57 32.10 52.9%46.4%2022 69.12 6.56%6.608 7.25%23.62%0.59pct 2023 Q1 12.68 25.92%1.02 28.62%13 15 16 2017-2022 17 2022 52.91%46.44%0.65%18 2022 19 1 2022 52.91%14 10Gbps XFP/SFP+40Gbps/100Gbps CFPx/400G OSFP AWG VUMX WDM VOA OPM 20 2 WDM 2 2022 32.1 46.44%4G LTE/5G GPON OLT/ONU BOSA/BOX 10Gps PON(10G EPON/10CGPON)TWDMPON AOC 15 21 3 GPON ONU BOSA AOC 3 SiP FP DFB EML VCSEL PD APD COC MEMS 16 4 PLC AWG MCS-Sip/+2022 57.10 5.48%32.89 23.20 2022 120.11 18.14%9.06 19.07%19.16%2023 Q1 26.65 6.76%3.08 36.34%21.16%3.14pct 17 22 23 2013-2022 24 2022 47.54%27.38%19.31%4.77%+18 25 2022 26 1 40%5G F5G 5G to B+5G 2 CNAS NTC PTC OA 19 LG VESTEL A.O.100 5 3+PCB/FPC AI 20 6 WALC MARVEL Pro 4 3C PCB+/7 21 2022 7.14 2.31%1.02 19.63%2023 Q1 1.66 19.32%0.22 32.97%28%6.3pct 2022 2.91 12.44%2.44 2.66%1.50 16.75%27 28 2018-2022 29 5G 5G 2022 40.77%34.18%20.98%22 30 2022 1 8 Mini EDFA half MSA 35*12*5.5mm 10dBm DCO XFP QSFP CFP2 OSFP VGA 10dBm VGA 10dB 20dBm OTN PTN 30dBm xPON CATV Mux/Demux OTDR OXC 2 23 31 3 4G 5G 32 2022 20.59 84.97%10.56 9.99%2022 37.86 29.66%1.71 154.93%18.66%2023 Q1 10.74 124.98%0.71 166.64%22.56%17.03pct 24 33 34 2018-2022 35 2022 54.4%27.9%12.63%5.02%5G 400G 200G 100G 50G 25G 36 25 9 400G QSFP56-DD FR4 200G QSFP56-FR4 100G QSFP28 4WDM-20 1 VR/AR PON SFU MDU:Open OLT JDM 2.5G/10G SFP PON Mac:VDSL2 CPE G.fast CPE 10 GPON SFU GPON MDU GPON SFP XGS-POM ONT 10G EPON ONT FTTB SFP GPON XGS PON 10Gbps 10G EPON 10Gbps 2/PoE AP 4G/5G AP 26 AP CPE 4G/5G Small Cell 11 WF-610D 802.11ac AP CIG FDD/TDD LTE SC-100 WF-188 802.11ax AP 3 5G PAM4 400G 800G 100G 100G CWDM4 200G 200G PAM4 400G 800G 2022 EML 800G 2xFR4/LR4(2km/10km).800G 8xFR1/LR1(2km/10km)12 400G QSFP56-DD FR4AP 200G QSFP56-FR4 SC-100 100G QSFP28 4WDM-20 50G QSFP28 ER1 40km 4 Oclaro 2019 3 Lumentum Holdings Inc.Oclaro Japan,Inc.4,160 2.8 Oclaro Japan,Inc.27 Oclaro 5G 2019 12 2020 7 5G 135/350/5G 2020 5G 215/2022 10G 6.95 16.39%10G 1.10 33.32%2019 2021 3.78 5.12 6.96 36.07%2022 8.25 1.13 36.34%31.66%14.02pct 2023 Q1 1.8 0.26 32.3%2.6pct 28 37 38 2020-2022 39 1,000 NOKIA Arista ADTRAN ADVA AddOn Computer IPG 40 29 2022 7.14 2.31%1.02 19.63%2023 Q1 1.66 19.32%0.22 32.97%28%6.3pct 2022 2.91 12.44%2.44 2.66%1.50 16.75%41 42 2018-2022 43 1 CPO CPO 5GMassive MIMO Smallcell 30 44 2 TYA03E028S 0.3m,27.50 29.50GHz MWD-2.5GEBand IP 2.5Gbps MWD-2.5G-E 71-76/81-86GHz(E-band)5G/4G/LTE+4K 5G 5Gbps 13 TYA03E028S MWD-2.5GEBand 3 GPS 31 GPS GPS 14 TYC022S010F1V1 TY-F18C019(F1V1)GPSTG-RGPS-06 4 400G QSFP-DD QSFP-DD MSA 400G 10Km 200G QSFP-DD QSFP56 MSA,100m 2Km 10Km 40Km LC MPO 100G QSFP28 SR4 PSM4 CWDM4 LR4 ER4 LC MPO IEEE802.3bm,SFF-8636 100G 15 400GBASE QSFP-DD 200G 100GBASE QSFP-28 32 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%