20230724_国信证券_医疗器械行业高值耗材集采复盘系列报告：冠脉支架从首开国采到接续涨价有何启示？_26页.pdf

|2023 07 24 证券分析师：张佳博021-S0980523050001证券分析师：陈益凌021-S0980519010002证券分析师：周章庆021-S0980523040002 2020 11 5 27 10 92.5%2022 11 25.3%1 2021 2022 PCI 2022 2019 26.2%2022 2019 PCI 2 2019-2022 6.4%10.9%15%17.6%3 60 4 0853.HK 300003.SZ 688108.SH 0YFUvMsPnOrQpRsRqNtMqRbRdN9PsQnNpNnOjMnNtMfQoMrP7NnMtNuOsQpOvPmOxO 01 02 03 PCI PCI PCI PCI 2019 PCI 10%2019 103 PCI PCI CCIF 35.74%26.74%6.98%6.59%6.59%6.36%3.72%3.26%4.03%血管介入类骨科植入类眼科类口腔科类电生理与起搏器血液净化类非血管介入类神经外科类其他232834394550576775921039711612924.8%19.7%14.0%16.9%10.2%13.3%17.4%13.0%21.5%12.0%-5.5%20.2%11.2%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201402009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 2020 7 3 2020 11 5 2021 1 2 2022 9 9 2022 11 29 2023 1 2020 7 3 GH-HD2020-1 2020 10 16 2020 11 5 2020 11 9 2020 11 19 2021 11 8 2022 9 9 2022 11 29 2022 12 2 2023 1 2023 1 2020 2 27 10 10%10%30%107.47 27 107.47 39.22 Boston Scientific Corporation 12.06 92568 90108 72484 3912 1211 111054210 0051015202530354045 92.5%1 20173461407 120560 469 14600-96.8%2 20193131802 51667 549 7500-92.7%3 20163462305 247940 590 7500-92.1%4 20173460564 128631 645 8400-92.3%5 20163460682Medtronic Inc.52472 648 19250-96.6%6 20203130662 20070 750 7500-90.0%7 20163461174 57133 755 4843-84.4%8 20153130608Boston Scientific Corporation100690 776 17100-95.5%9 20173466661Boston Scientific Corporation41865 776 11400-93.2%10 20163460595 12158 798 8850-91.0%2020 11 5 676 92.5%10 27 37%8 11 73 67.9%34.5 1 Firekingfisher2 Firecondor 2 3 EXCROSSAL 4 5 2022 3 848/798/50/95%90%2 A 40%B 40%-70%C 95%A 50%30%A 95%0%B 85%10%C 65%30%186.512022 186.51 2020 73.5%59.12 31.7%27.82 14.9%Boston Scientific Corporation 27.59 14.9%13.7%11.5%4.1%4%2.2%(2%)(1.1%)59.12 27.82 27.59 25.56 21.54 7.60 7.48 4.08 3.66 2.04 0.02 010203040506070 31.7%14.9%Boston Scientific Corporation14.8%Medtronic Inc.13.7%11.5%4.1%4.0%2.2%2.0%Abbott Vascular1.1%Micell Technologies Ireland Limited0.0%25.3%14 19 73.7%37%10 11 75.7%45.0%31.5%2020 1 20163132305 513543 A 680 50 73023.7%2 20203131021 7941 A 729 50 7793 20163131174 74841 A 747 48 7955.3%4 20193131802 75956 A 795 1 79645.0%5 20203130662 67668 A 750 50 8006.7%6 20163130682 Medtronic Inc.250141 A 786 20 80624.4%7 20173131407 273914 B 774 50 82475.7%8 20223131270 28638 B 789 50 8399 20223130495 4284 B 795 50 84510 20153130608 Boston Scientific Corporation 275931 B 798 48 8469.0%11 20173130564 215374 C 798 50 84831.5%12 20163130595()40789 C 798 50 8486.3%13 20163132140 Abbott Vascular 20421 C 798 50 84814 20223131010 595 C 798 50 848 25.3%25.3%2022 11 29 14 818 25.3%2479405713351667200705247212056010069012863112158107.1%31.0%47.0%237.2%376.7%127.2%174.0%67.4%235.5%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0100000200000300000400000500000600000 59075554975064846977664579823.7%5.3%45.0%6.7%24.4%75.7%9.0%31.5%6.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01002003004005006007008009002020 2022 01 02 03 2019 160 150 10%117 50-60 10 CCIF CCPCC2023 2022 1293932 2019 26.2%2022 920 3000 PCI 3 600 PCI MDB CCIF 61.726.0648.425.1444.715.0802040608010012014016018020202021 154.8516.281031481851291491840204060801001201401601802002019 2022+26.2%+0.6%-0.2%PCI 100 1000 PCI 2019 26.2%PCI 2019 CCIF 05001,0001,5002,0002,500 1000-2000 100100-500 3001000-3000 1000-3000 1000-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2022 PCI 2019 PCI 2019 26.2%2022/1.47 2014/1.5 2019-2022 6.4%10.9%15%17.6%DCB CCIF 6.4%10.9%15.0%17.6%93.6%89.1%85.0%82.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019202020212022DCB STENT 2022 2020 81.3%317.3%1 4.1 60 2022 VS 2020)317.3%176.3%141.2%128.7%81.4%78.6%73.5%50.7%40.0%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%10894420421020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0002020 2022下降81.3%2020 2022 60%2022 10%5%2023 15%19%Wind Wind Wind Wind 252129073623340061695879-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 2902 4595 5536 4233 4964 5856 1,0821,3921,846945890 934-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy306 345 367 226 69 67 306 345 367 226 37 48-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy1576 2653 3476 7869 8109 4900 1013 1737 986 710 764-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 2020 Wind-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%20200703 20201016 20201105 20220909 20221129 1 27 10 100 1000 2022 2 2021 2022 PCI 2022 2019 26.2%2022 2019 PCI 3 2019-2022 6.4%10.9%15%17.6%4 5 60 6 01 02 03 1998 2022 60.1+8%15.6%-31.2-57.9%2022 9.34 2021 2540 60%2210+28.1%表：微创医疗Wind 一致性预测 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()5670 4636 5564 6008 7649 9615 12655yoy 18.5%-18.2%20.0%8.0%27.3%25.7%31.6%()331-1367-1976-3119-2308-1748-855yoy 93.5%-513.2%-44.6%-57.9%26.0%24.3%51.1%EPS()0.14-0.79-1.18-1.78-1.26-0.95-0.47ROE()(%)8.92-16.96-18.55-38.46-30.46-24.25-31.25ROA(%)5.73-8.94-9.06-12.58-8.25-4.85-5PE 41.47-51.18-23.98-11.03-10.48-13.84-28.29资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1622 1622 1315 1375 1557yoy 0.0%-18.9%4.6%13.2%1087 1458 1176 1405 1422yoy 34.1%-19.3%19.5%1.2%1392 1846 945 890 934yoy 32.6%-48.8%-5.8%4.9%240 339 447 676 928yoy 41.3%31.9%51.2%37.3%126 193 215 377 556yoy 53.2%11.4%75.3%47.5%22 99 200 256yoy 350.0%102.0%28.0%41 33 30 30 31yoy-9.1%0.0%3.3%2 22yoy 1000.0%24 5 10 149yoy-79.2%100.0%1390.0%1935 2520 1888 2276 2825yoy 30.2%-25.1%20.6%24.1%1322 1686 1347 1542 1719yoy 27.5%-20.1%14.5%11.5%752 725 573 606 672yoy-3.6%-21.0%5.8%10.9%450 393 373 410 446yoy-12.7%-5.1%9.9%8.8%80 96 38 62 84yoy 20.0%-60.4%63.2%35.5%56 114 14 69 110yoy 103.6%-87.7%392.9%59.4%Wind 1999 50%2022 58.8-4.7%35.6%2022 43.60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2907 3623 3400 6169 5879yoy 24.6%-6.1%81.4%-4.7%3172 3849 3412 3258 3438yoy 21.3%-11.4%-4.5%5.5%()224 265 1227 1232 1293yoy 18.2%363.2%0.4%4.9%5918 7242 6497 6900 9529yoy 22.4%-10.3%6.2%38.1%439 554 1542 3760 1081yoy 26.2%178.4%143.9%-71.3%Wind 表：乐普医疗Wind 一致性 预测 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()8039 10660 10609 11258 13193 15360yoy 3.1%32.6%-0.5%6.1%17.2%16.4%()1802 1719 2203 2503 2954 3496yoy 4.4%-4.6%28.1%13.6%18.0%18.3%EPS()1 0.95 1.17 1.33 1.57 1.86 1805 1805 1881 1881 1881 1881ROE()(%)18.25 14.98 14.54 14.39 14.84 15.16ROA(%)11.01 9.16 9.94 9.88 10.37 11.2PE 27.22 23.75 19.61 15.85 13.43 11.35资料来源：Wind，国信证 券经济 研究所 整理 Wind 2007 2022 2023 2022 HT Supreme HT Infinity 779 839 A B 5 HT Supreme FDA PMA Neuro RX Neuro LPS NOVA 2023 4 NMPA 2023 2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 32 68 100 125 126yoy 110.2%47.2%25.1%1.0%18 45 76 100 94yoy 148.6%70.2%31.7%-6.4%14 23 24 25 32yoy 62.1%2.7%4.1%31.0%345 367 226 69 67yoy 6.2%-38.2%-69.4%-3.8%345 367 226 37 48yoy 6.2%-38.2%-83.6%28.2%Nova 32 19yoy-40.6%371 428 323 190 184yoy 15.2%-24.4%-41.1%-3.3%6 7 3 4 8yoy 6.3%-54.7%20.7%129.6%Wind 表：赛诺医疗Wind 一致性预测 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()327 194 193 380 552 759yoy-24.9%-40.6%-0.8%97.0%45.3%37.5%()22-131-162-49 79 191yoy-75.0%-681.4%-24.2%69.8%261.2%141.8%EPS()0.05-0.32-0.4-0.12 0.19 0.47 410 410 410 410 410 410ROE()(%)2.09-14.09-19.17-6.2 9 17.9ROA(%)1.86-11.32-15.97-PE 245.53-25.74-14.42-77.82 48.27 19.96资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032