20230717_东方证券_氢能源行业系列报告：探寻氢能的定位与发展逻辑_19页.pdf

|/2.0 2025 10 2030-2035 100(601226)(600475)昇(300423)(688551)/2023 07 17 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 S0860517100003 021-63325888*6119 S0860520080004 S0860523050001 1 2.4.4.6.8.8.11.13.14.14/.14.17.17 1ZEVzQnQpMrQqOpMsPoRoP9PbPaQoMoOtRpMkPqQoRiNqRrO9PmNnQwMtRmMNZpPnN 3 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8 2000-2022.8 9.9 10.10 11.11 12 HYBRIT.11 13 2020.12 14.12 15.14 1.5 2.9 3 2021-2035.13 4.15 5 2023 1.16 6 2022.16 4 60 1965 2 tce 2021 53 tce 2 tce 45 tce 83%1 OurWorldInData 60 1960 8 tCO2 2021 115 tCO2 2021 91%2 OurWorldInData 2007 0%2019 7.7%2%40%2007-2019 46.8%72.5%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0019651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021 tce 0204060801001201401900190419081912191619201924192819321936194019441948195219561960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020 tCO2 5 3 1 2016-2030 2016 12 2021 9 010203040506070802007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019%6 2060 90%60%4 5 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.00.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2017A 2020A 2025E 2030E 2040E 2050E 2060E tce 7 2060 70%6 7/0.010.020.030.040.050.00.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%2017A 2020A 2025E 2030E 2040E 2050E 2060E tce 8/77%94%8 2000-2022 2030 1200GW 2050 2500GW 9 2 2020 2025 2030 2050 GW 500 1000 2000 4000 GW 100 200 300 400 GW 100 150 180 230 GW 32 68 120 170 GW 3 20 200 610 GW 265 562 1200 2590+/9 10 X H2 X 10 11 11/2Fe2O3+3C=4Fe+3CO2 12 HYBRIT 12 2020 1270 t/a 31%1150 t/a 28%411 t/a 10%450 t/a 11%80%13 2020 Power-to-X HVC HVC HVC 14,31%,28%,10%,11%,15%,5%13 2022 2022 3 2021-2035 3 2021-2035 14 15/15 4+-+HVC-RMI+75%16 1/2 1/3 1/3 1/5 5 2023 1/kWh 1.37 1.18 1.12 1.14/kWh 0.78 0.69 0.67 0.65/kWh 0.41 0.25 0.30 0.35/0.30 0.21 0.27 0.31/0.52 0.36 0.45 0.54 2022 6 2022 2023.1 10 2022.11/2022.11 2023 0.1/2022.10 70%20%2022.10 50%50%20%20%17 2022.3 2020-2022 120 2.0 2025 10 2030-2035 100(601226)(600475)昇(300423)(688551)18 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer