20231028_方正证券_医药生物行业证券研究报告：创新引领成长老龄化消费带来投资新机遇_43页.pdf

分析师联系人周超泽 登记编号：S1220523070003许睿创 新 引 领 成 长，老 龄 化 消 费 带 来 投 资 新 机 遇医药生物团队 年度行业策略报告证 券 研 究 报 告|医药生物|2023 年10 月28 日 9 BD CGM 2023 OTC 2023Q1 ICU 2023 Q2 333 20YDWvMsPpMoPpRnOsPsNoP7N8Q9PpNrRoMmPeRqRnNlOsRoOaQnMqQuOsRvNwMtQsO 3 4020004000600080001000012000140002012-01-04 2013-01-04 2014-01-04 2015-01-04 2016-01-04 2017-01-04 2018-01-04 2019-01-04 2020-01-04 2021-01-04 2022-01-04 2023-01-04医药生物(申万)上证指数 沪深300 9 2 10 20 8007.66 9 1 Wind 50%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050607080医药行业估值溢价水平 A 股指数估值（扣除银行）申万医药行业PE0%5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002500申万医药成交额(亿元)成交额占沪深两市比重 9 10 20 8.2%2 3 Wind 610.7%13.9%11.9%10.4%11.3%11.1%12.6%11.0%14.8%17.4%13.7%12.5%12.7%14.0%13.1%10.8%11.56%10.30%9.40%10.94%10.88%11.40%6.6%7.4%6.6%6.4%6.6%6.5%7.1%7.0%8.2%10.0%9.9%9.3%9.3%10.3%8.8%8.5%8.70%7.90%7.80%8.49%7.98%7.43%7.9%10.6%8.8%7.7%8.5%8.3%9.8%8.1%11.7%13.3%10.0%9.2%9.3%10.4%9.1%6.7%6%5.20%4.60%5.67%5.78%5.06%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2基金重仓持仓医药占比 A 股医药股占总市值比例 剔除医药基金重仓持仓医药占比 2023 Q2 2021 Q4 2022 Q3 2023 Q2 7.43%4 Wind 7 5 1949-2022(6 60 1949-1957 2009-2017 60 1962-1975 1971 2022-2035 60 1985-1995 ,8 7 2023H1GLP-1 Insight 8 III GLP-1 GLP-1 NASH AD GLP-1 2023H1 2023H1 2022 221%Wegovy 2023H1 2022 95%2020 2021 2022 2023H11 Ozempic GLP-1 35.10 51.22 85.74 61.802 Trulicity GLP-1/53.56 64.72 74.40 37.903 Rybelsus GLP-1 3.10 7.35 16.21 17.904 Mounjaro GLP-1R/GIPR 4.83 15.505 Wegovy GLP-1 2.50 8.88 12.306 Saxenda GLP-1 9.28 10.27 15.32 8.917 Victoza GLP-1 31.03 22.88 17.68 6.838 Bydureon GLP-1 4.48 3.85 2.809 Byetta GLP-1 0.68 0.5510Tanzeum/Eperzan GLP-1 11 Lyxumia GLP-1 137.23 163.34 225.86 161.14 19.0%38.3%,9 9 GLP-1 GLP-1 GLP-1 100 GLP-1 MNC GLP-1 GLP-1 GIPR/GLP-1R GLP1 CDE,10 11 Donanemab 10 Lecanemab Lecanemab N Engl J Med 2023;388:9-21 Lilly 2021 6 FDA A aducanumab AD AD A AD Aducanumab AD FDA AD 2023 7 FDA AD Leqembi III Donanemab III ,11 13 PCSK9 12 PCSK9 cells PCSK9 PSCK9 PCSK9 PCSK9 2 Inclisiran ,12 Wind0501001502002503003502021/06/30 2021/12/31 2022/6/30 2022/12/31 2023/6/3001020304050607080901002021/06/30 2021/12/31 2022/6/30 2022/12/31 2023/6/30 14 15 ,13 ASCO ESMO05101520253035400123456 16 2023 ASCO 17 2023 ESMO ASCO 15 5 ESMO,35 10 ASCO ESMO,14 ESMO ORR%mPFSmOS SHR-1701 PD-L1/TGF-RII Ib/IIGC/GEJC(1L)vs GC/GEJC(2L)vs nsqNSCLC19 vs27 vs10 21.1 vs 33.3 vs10.0 4.0 vs 4.0 vs 6.2SHR-1701+BEVGC/GEJC nsqNSCLC+PD-1,VEGFR G/GEJ C III SOXR vs SOX pCR 18.3 vs 5.0 chemocamrelizumab+rivoceranib pCR SHR-A1811 HER2 ADC 2L+HER2 I 85 45.9 6mo 52.1%&SHR-A2009 HER3 ADC 3L+I 36 25&HRS-4642 KRAS G12D I 18 10%(NSCLC)&SHR-1701+BP102PD-L1/TGF-VEGF II/III 62 59.7 10.3&SHR-1316+IBI310 PD-L1+CTLA4 II 39 16.7&+HER2 HER2 II 100 70 11.8 HER2 BC+PD-1 VEGFR II 48 13.6 IM-TNBC 18 2023 ESMO ESMO,15 2023/2 Treeline SHR2554 EZH2 1100 4,500 10%-12.5%6.5 2023/8 One Bio SHR-1905 2,500 10.25 2023/10 Dr.Reddys 300;1.525;2023/10 ElevarTherapeutics 6 20.5%2022/12 Summit Therapeutics Inc.PD-1/VEGF AK112”5 50 2022/12 7 ADC 1.75 93 94.75/2023/2 Claudin 18.2 CMG901 6300 11.25 2023/1 GSK TCE TCE/4000/F-Star2023/7 Fcab 10 BD 19 BD,162643397146160 20 40 60 80 100 120202120222023H1license-out license-in9119321 1 1024681012 20 2021-2023H1 21 license-out 22 license-out 23 license-out 05000001000000150000020000002021H1 2022H1 2023H1 ,17-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-07()%()%24 WIND,2023 1-8 20923.33 9.3%2023 1-8 17864.77 18.3%8 2312 13%2.2%2336 12.6%6.3%,18,2022 8 8 4 70%70%25 ,19 26 7 31 28 20 2023 2022 2023 2023 2023 2%8%8%12%27 21 2023 23H1 229(+42)168(+36):124(+9)23H1 18+1 49+4 57+5 52+28 23H1 27(+4)3(+0)111 3 32 55 23H1 26(+8)27(+2)6 28 22 29:30:23 31 32 WIND,2023 2494%92%91%86%85%91%92%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%397858554943400102030405060708090 2023 94%39/78/40/60/33 2023H1%34 2023H1(:/)25 35 PHN CDC 36 2008-2018 60-CDC 10%-18%PHN PHN PHN 9%34%PHN 26 GSK GSK Shingrix 50 2020 6 90%50 97%70 91%GSK GSK 2023 10 8 2026 12 31 2024-2026 34.4 68.8 103.2 90%97.20%96.60%Shingrix 97.60%97.40%91.30%91.30%91.40%38 GSK 37 GSK 27 5.1 1%3%10%1369 1 70 209 698 7.1 1%3%10%1369 1 97 292 972 200 40 7.1 50 5.1 3%1369/1 2023 4 30 2023 6.83 2.19 39 40 28 CGM 41 42 CGM BGM BGM HbA1c 2-3 GA 2-3 CGM 2021 CGM BGM CGM 24 BGM 290%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050100150200250300350400 YOY9.5%21.4%49.4%90.5%78.6%50.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2015 2020 2030ECGM BGM 43 2015-2030E CGM CGM 2020 CGM 21.4%2030 49.4%CGM 2015 17 2020 57 28.2%2030 20.4%365 CGM 44 30 2021 2020/2021 60 2.64/2.67 2030 60 25%3.63 2021 60 30%CGM 2027 60 26.35 CGM CGM 23.9%2030 62.24 31.6%2021 CGM 11.0%CGM CGM 45 2020-2030E 60 CGM 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 60 2.64 2.67 2.71 2.77 2.85 2.94 3.04 3.16 3.29 3.44 3.63CGM 10000 10000 9900 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 60002 60 30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%0.79 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.86 0.88 0.91 0.95 0.99 1.03 1.09 36.50%38.50%40.50%42.50%45.50%48.50%51.50%54.50%57.50%60.50%63.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%7.00%7.50%8.00%8.50%9.00%9.50%10.00%1.10%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%15.00%60 1.59 3.39 5.87 8.72 12.25 16.36 21.04 26.35 35.75 46.27 62.24 19.8 30.81 39.1 46.96 62.57 78.58 94.66 110.46 130.41 149.59 197.01 8.0%11.0%15.0%18.6%19.6%20.8%22.2%23.9%27.4%30.9%31.6%CGM 31 2023H1 14.06%42.01%32.58%45.42%12.83%Q2 13.67%30.64%36.62%44.38%11.71%2023Q1 2023Q2 OTC 46 2021-2023H1 Wind 320%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0200400600800100012002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2SW YoY%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060801001201401602022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2SW YoY%2023Q2/H1 0.59pct/1.02pct 2021 24.96%2023Q2 21.34%2021 5.58%2023Q2 5.07%47 2021-2023H1%48 2021-2023H1%Wind 33 15 OTC/OTC OTC 49 2021-2023H1%Wind 34 2023 3 1996 2012 50 356.10%3.71%11.48%15.05%25.45%22.89%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002502022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 YoY 2023Q1 ICU 2023Q2 Q2 22.89%29.41%6.82%1.31%23.83%-14.65%43.46%29.41%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050602022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 YoY 51 52 Wind 36 2023 Q2 Q2 12.95%18.90%6.90%-5.86%7.88%-2.26%3.14%-12.95%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%6468727680842022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 YoY-4.44%-24.92%12.76%-37.00%0.84%-18.90%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%05101520252022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 YoY 53%54%Wind 379%6%3%3%7%6%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%9609801000102010401060108011002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2SW/-12%-5%-31%-16%7%-7%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%01020304050607080901002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2SW/2023Q2 1064.7 6%84.3 7%56%55%Wind 3825 25325545611660390%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%010203040506070%2018 333 50%39 56%2019 2021 2023 Q3 2023 Q3 0.25%2.08%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E(57 58 WIND 39 2023Q2 280.85 5.6%33.9 6.3%59%60%Wind 10.66%-12.02%-42.03%64.23%6.27%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%05101520253035402022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2(%)2.01%6.79%1.88%0.25%-5.49%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%2502552602652702752802852902953002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2(%)40 41 42方正证券研究所上 海 市 静 安 区 延 平 路 7 1 号 延 平 大 厦 2 楼深 圳市 福田 区竹 子林 紫竹七 道光 大银 行大 厦31 层广 州 市 天 河 区 兴 盛 路12 号楼隽峰院2 期3 层 方 正 证 券 北 京 市 西 城 区 展 览 路48 号 新 联 写 字 楼6 层长 沙 市 天 心 区 湘 江 中 路 二 段36 号 华 远 国 际 中 心37 层专 注 专 心 专 业43