20231122_东方证券_轻工制造行业2024年度投资策略报告：把握需求修复主线优选低估值优质龙头_31页.pdf

|2024 2023 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2023 2023/2023 11 22 021-63325888*6069 S0860517020001 BSW124 2023/11/18 2023-11-19 10 2023/11/18 2023-11-19 10 2023/11/11 2023-11-13 2024 2 1 2023.6 1.1.6 1.2.7 1.3 2023Q3.7 2 2024.8 2.1.8 8 11 2.2.12 2.3.14 3.20 3.1.20 3.2.21 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 28 29.29 WUFUzQmRpMqRtNoNsPrOqR6M9RbRtRnNpNoNlOqRpOeRoMnRbRpOsOMYpNrMwMsQvM 3 1 2023 3.8%2023/11/8.6 2 2023 A 28 14 2023/11/8.6 3 2023 2023/11/8.6 4 2023.7 5 2023.7 6 2023.7 7 2023Q3 0.06pct 0.74%0.03pct-0.44%.8 8 2023Q3.8 9 2023 6.9 10 2023-2025 10%6%0%3%1%0%.9 11 2023 1-10 12%.9 12 2023 9.9 13.10 14 2023.10 15 8.11 16 8.11 17 2022 62%.12 18.12 19 2023 8 9.12 20 2023 8%.13 21 2023 10.13 22 2023 20%.13 23 2023.13 24 2021.14 25 2022 7.2%2017 4pct 14 26 2023 1551 6%.15 27 2023 204 3%.15 28 2023 38%36%.15 29 2023 11 11.5%20.8%11.6%.16 4 30 2023 11 11.8%20.5%37.6%.16 31 2023 2022.16 32 2023.16 33 2022 7%.17 34 2022-2030 CAGR 10%-16%.17 35 2022 2000.17 36 2023 2500.17 37 2023 10%.18 38 2023.18 39 2023.18 40 2023.19 41 2023.19 42 2023 2022.19 43 ABS PC.19 44 10%2002.20 45 PE TTM PE 2023E.20 46 PE TTM PE 2023E 20%.20 47 PE TTM PE 2023E 20%.21 48.21 49 PE TTM PE 2023E 20%.21 50 2023-2024 12%12%.22 51 2023-2024 16%9%.22 52 2023 19.9%20.0%.23 53 2022-2025 30%.23 54 2023 2024 30%.24 55 2025 50%.24 56.24 57.24 58.25 59 2022.25 60 2017-2022 CAGR 43%.26 61 2017-2022 CAGR 78%.26 62 2023 24.8%2.5pct.26 5 63 2023 10 S7 Max Ultra Target 180.26 64 2022 153.25 17%.27 65 2017-2022 CAGR 25%189%.27 66 2022 16%2023 2.15%.28 67 2023 4.90%.28 68 2022 2023 14%23%.28 69 2022 2023 36%31%.28 70 2019-2022 CAGR 18%13%29 71 2022 24.33%.29 1 2024.10 2 2024 2023.11 6 1 2023 1.1 2023 2023 2023 11 8 3.82%300 2.91pct A 28 14 2.13%0.23%6.28%15.72%1 2023 3.8%2023/11/8 2 2023 A 28 14 2023/11/8 Wind Wind 3 2023 2023/11/8 Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023-1 2023-2 2023-3 2023-4 2023-5 2023-6 2023-7 2023-8 2023-8 2023-9 2023-11 300()()()()()-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%()()()()()2023 7 1.2 2023 115 2023 2023-6.64%+1.71%-0.21%+12.58%4 2023 5 2023 Wind Wind 6 2023 Wind 1.3 2023Q3 2023Q3 2018 2023Q3 0.06pct 0.74%0.03pct-0.44%2023Q3/-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q32022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-1000%-800%-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q32022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%600%800%2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q32022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 8 0.30%/0.23%/0.09%/0.07%/0.05%+0.02pct/+0.06pct/+0.08/-0.10pct/7 2023Q3 0.06pct 0.74%0.03pct-0.44%8 2023Q3 Wind Wind 2 2024 2.1 2024 2023 6 6 2024 1 2023 Arauco UPM Metsa CMPC 35 Suzano 255 2023 2024 2023-2025 10%6%0%3%1%0%2 2023 2023 1-10 12%2023 9 2024-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%2007Q12007Q32008Q12008Q32009Q12009Q32010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q22019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q42022Q22022Q42023Q2=A/A=-(%)0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%2007Q12007Q32008Q12008Q32009Q12009Q32010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q22019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q42022Q22022Q42023Q2 0.08pct 0.09%0.06pct 0.23%0.02pct 0.30%0.05%0.10pct 0.07%9 9 2023 6 10 2023-2025 10%6%0%3%1%0%2023E 2024E 2025E 411 255 0 4546 4801 4801 10%6%0%80 34 0 3116 3150 3150 3%1%0%2023 11 11 2023 1-10 12%12 2023 9 2024 2023 9 8 2024(20)30801301802302804005006007008009001,0001,1002016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10/-/-/7806302002202402602803003203403601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50607080901001101 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 10 13 14 2023 Wind 1 2024 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 4%10%2%1.2%1.2%1.2%2024 0%0%0%0.5%0.5%0.5%6%17%15%7%7%7%2024 2016-2021 2023 11 2017 9 2024 2023 4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002016/012016/042016/072016/102017/012017/042017/072017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002016/022016/052016/082016/112017/032017/052017/082017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/042020/072020/092020/122021/042021/072021/092021/122022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10 50%50%75%11 15 8 16 8 Wind 2 2024 2023 供给情况 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 3982 4202 4589 4760 225 220 387 171 6%6%9%4%3439 3464 3509 3630 85 25 45 121 3%1%1%3%7421 7666 8098 8390 310 245 432 292 4%3%6%4%2023 11 2022 62%40%2022 801301802302803301,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002016-012016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-102020-012020-042020-072020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-042023-072023-10/()(/)11#2021 CIF/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002012-012012-052012-092013-012013-062013-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09 100%/50%+50%/12 17 2022 62%18 19 2023 8 9 Wind 2.2 2023 7 2023 8%2024 8.2%2024 2023 2023 40005000600070008000900010000W1W3W5W7W9W11W13W15W17W19W21W23W25W27W29W31W33W35W37W39W41W43W45W47W49W51/2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08:13 2021 2023 2024 20 2023 8%21 2023 10 2023 2023 20%2023 22 2023 20%23 2023 2023-8%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%10(2)8 20%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-14 29800 24 2021 25 2022 7.2%2017 4pct 9 2023 2.3 2023 2023 3%2023 2%26%38%36%0%50%100%150%200%250%01234567 yoy 15 26 2023 1551 6%27 2023 204 3%28 2023 38%36%11 2023 11 11.5%20.8%11.6%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000250030003500 yoy-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050100150200250300350 yoy 38%30%19%13%2022 38%36%14%12%2023 16 29 2023 11 11.5%20.8%11.6%30 2023 11 11.8%20.5%37.6%3000-3499 4000-4500 T20 P10 3000-3499 G20 X20 Pro 4000-4500 2023 3000-3500 4000-4500 13.2%15.3%3.1pct 10.6pct 31 2023 2022 32 2023 2022-2030 CAGR 10-16%2022 7%25%14%11%10%2030 10%15%2030 891 14260%5%10%15%20%25%0102030405060 2023 11 2023 11 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%050100150200250300 2023 11 2023 11 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%5000 4500-5000 4000-4500 3500-4000 3000-3500 30002022Q1-3 2023Q1-3 2023（元）2022（元）G20 4999 G10S Pro 5699-12%G10S pure 3999 G10S 4799-17%P10 3299 G10S AUTO 3999-18%T20 Max 3999 T10 OMNI 4799-17%17 2022-2030 CAGR 10%-16%33 2022 7%34 2022-2030 CAGR 10%-16%iRobot 2030 10%15%2022 3000 2300 2500 2023 2500 46%24pct 2020 616 35 2022 2000 36 2023 2500 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%30%891 1,426 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2030E 2,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,400202001202003202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%4000 3500-4000 3000-3500 2500-3000 2000-2500 20002022Q1-3 2023Q1-3 18 2023 2023 2023 10%22%12%2023 37 2023 10%38 2023 39 2023 2022 2022 2023 2023 3-4-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0100200300400500600700800 yoy-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0102030405060708090100 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 yoy 19 40 2023 41 2023 2023 PC ABS 2022 10%2002 2024 42 2023 2022 43 ABS PC Wind Wind-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 yoy-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2022 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 5,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002016!-012016!-042016!-072016!-102017!-012017!-042017!-072017!-102018!-012018!-042018!-072018!-102019!-012019!-042019!-072019!-102020!-012020!-042020!-072020!-102021!-012021!-042021!-072021!-102022!-012022!-042022!-072022!-102023!-012023!-042023!-072023!-10:1#:/:A00:/:430/2B:2.0*1219mm:/5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002016!-032016!-062016!-092016!-122017!-032017!-062017!-092017!-122018!-032018!-062018!-092018!-122019!-032019!-062019!-092019!-122020!-032020!-062020!-092020!-122021!-032021!-062021!-092021!-122022!-032022!-062022!-092022!-122023!-032023!-062023!-09:ABS():/:PC():/20 44 10%2002 Wind 3 3.1 2023 PE TTM 45 PE TTM PE 2023E 46 PE TTM PE 2023E 20%2023 11 8 Wind 2023 11 8 Wind 05001000150020002500300035004000:010203040506070 PE(TTM)20%-80%PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(2023E)010203040506070 PE(TTM)20%-80%PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(2023E)21 47 PE TTM PE 2023E 20%48 2023 11 8 Wind 2023 11 8 Wind 49 PE TTM PE 2023E 20%2023 11 8 Wind 3.2(002078)(605377)(603733)(605007)(600567)(02689)(02314)(000488)(600966)(603833)(603801)(002572)(603816)(01999)0102030405060 PE(TTM)20%-80%PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(2023E)20304050607080902015/012015/052015/082015/122016/032016/062016/102017/012017/052017/082017/112018/032018/062018/092019/012019/042019/082019/112020/032020/062020/092021/012021/042021/082021/112022/032022/062022/092023/012023/042023/08PE(TTM)020406080100120140 PE(TTM)20%-80%PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(TTM)PE(2022E)22(001322)(688169)(603486)2023(002705)(002032)(002959)(002242)(300824)+(002831)2022 1046 611 220 80 240 435 140 105 80 2023 292.03 1.48%21.37 5.79%9 PM1 100 50 2023 4 2023 10 2023 10 30 525 50 2023-2024 12%12%51 2023-2024 16%9%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0100200300400500600700800 yoy()-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0100200300400500600 yoy()23 2022 5 2022 34.36 16.88%4.67 4.18%2023 29.84 19.86%3.97 20.02%8 2023 6 8 10 2024 2025 30%52 2023 19.9%20.0%53 2022-2025 30%2023 61.25 12.75%3.82 32.65%60 2024 2 30%2024-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0510152025303540 yoy yoy-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E-24 54 2023 2024 30%55 2025 50%2023 165.65 1.8%5 2017-2022 18%23.10 16.0%5 2017-2022 16%CAGR 33%CAGR 31%18%2022 11%CAGR 19%CAGR 17%56 57 2021 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0204060801001201401602019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%01020304050607080901002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050100150200250*yoy 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050100150200250 yoy 25 2023 4 699 29800 2023 39.29 11.7%3.49 10.9%2019-2022 CAGR 22%18%2022 51%39%+CAGR 57%2022 53.8%30.8%CAGR 14%37%58 59 2022 2017 2017-2021 CAGR 51%114%2022 2022 66.29 14%11.83 16%2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0102030405060()yoy,54%,7%,31%,8%26 2023 56.89 30%13.60 59%60 2017-2022 CAGR 43%61 2017-2022 CAGR 78%2023 P10 G20 2023 24.8%2.5pct S8 Q Revo Target 2023 62 2023 24.8%2.5pct 63 2023 10 S7 Max Ultra Target 180 Amazon 2019+2022 147.1 24%/78.0/69.1 16%/35%5 2017-2022 0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%02468101214162017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2022Q1-3 2023Q1-3 27 CAGR 25%189%2023 36%47%2023 2023 35.04 32.80 0.2%11%64 2022 153.25 17%65 2017-2022 CAGR 25%189%2023 8 X2 W2 Z2 ODM 20 JARDEN APPLICA HAMILTON BEACH 2021 ODM 116.24 2011-2021 CAGR 10%2022 16%2023 2023 2%29%2022 28.81 29%2023-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0204060801001201401601802015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%01020304050607080902017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 28 66 2022 16%2023 2.15%67 2023 4.90%2021 SKU 2022 14%36%2023 23%31%68 2022 2023 14%23%69 2022 2023 36%31%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020406080100120140(yoy-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%051015202530354045(yoy-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530354045 yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5 yoy 29 2019-2022 CAGR 13%18%2022 24%2023 108.07 9.85 10%3%70 2019-2022 CAGR 18%13%71 2022 24.33%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020406080100120140160180 yoy yoy 30 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer