20231121_国泰君安_保险行业2024年年度策略报告：疾风知劲草变局显价值_48页.pdf

1 WUBYwPmRtQpOqOnOnQtMrQ8O9R9PtRpPtRoNeRqRrQfQmOtR6MrQqMMYnNrQxNtQsQ2 3 2022 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q1-Q3-24.0%8.8%32.6%29.9%-31.4%16.6%31.5%36.8%-22.4%7.7%19.9%14.0%-59.5%NA 17.1%NA-18.1%NA 19.2%NA-17.3%NA 66.8%NA 0.1%NA 37.1%NA-8.1%22.6%32.1%32.8%-13.5%25.7%35.6%34.2%1 2023 NBV 2023 NBV NBV 4 2 2022 2021 2022 2023.1-10 5.87%-21.08%-9.80%3.78%-18.36%-10.89%3.93%1.06%2.38%2.28%1.87%1.63%3.19%2.46%1.80%2.75%2.65%2.25%2023 1 Wind H11021.CSI H11022.CSI H11023.CSI H11025.CSI 5 5 3-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%202301 202302 202303 202304 202305 202306 202307 202308 202309 202310 2 2023.3 23 2023.4 3.5%3.0%2023.7 2023 8 3%2.5%2%6 3 23H1 PPT PPT 4 23 11.2%10.9%18.8%28.3%42.2%11.7%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%2022 2023H1 5 7 6 23H1 57.0%67.4%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2022 2023H1 36.0%90.9%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2022 2023H1 7 23H1 23 8 4 23 NBV 23 NBV NBV 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q1-Q3 2023 E 7.7%19.9%14.0%11.8%8.8%32.6%29.9%23.2%16.6%31.5%36.8%24.2%11.9%17.1%14.5%10.0%27.0%66.8%59.0%50.0%NBV 9 8 024681012141618202018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09 5 5 22 2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.25%40bp2023/9/1 2.25%40bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.25%40bp2023/9/1 2.25%40bp2023/9/1 2.55%40bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/1 2.55%55bp2023/9/1 2.30%40bp2023/9/2 2.30%40bp2023/9/2 2.25%40bp2023/9/5 2.25%40bp2023/9/11 2.35%45bp2023/9/13 2.55%55bp Wind Wind 10 9 2019%6 OECD 9111313176 9 12 16 28 30 35 35 35 43 46 49 55 64 76 0 20 40 60 80 2023.9 8 19.6%2023.11 2023.11.13 H3N2 11 24 3.0%30 3 IRR 7 3.0%2.0 3.0 10 1.92%2.11%1.49%1.63%20 2.48%2.60%2.27%2.34%30 2.66%2.75%2.52%2.57%40 2.75%2.81%2.64%2.68%3.5%10 2.21%2.21%1.49%2.37%20 2.85%2.92%2.53%3.00%30 3.05%3.13%2.86%3.18%40 3.17%3.23%3.03%3.26%12 10 11 PPT PPT 3 31 FYC U 13 8 2024 NBV 2024 NBV NBV 3%-19%-13%-18%-16%-8%8%2%-2%0%8%8%10%8%8%NBV 2.2%-5.4%-2.7%-13.5%-8.8%14 11 2023/8 8 2023 1 2 3 8 22 9 10 9 10 20 2023 30%/NBV 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1.08 1.27 1.39 1.44 1.47 1.52 1.15 1.16 1.05 1.31 1.38 1.38 1.13 1.21 1.17 1.20 1.28 1.53 1.32 1.37 1.73 1.94 2.44 4.20 1.47 1.39 2.23 2.32 2.80 2.70 1.17 1.48 1.59 1.58 1.74 1.95 1.22 1.31 1.53 1.63 1.85 2.21 9 NBV/NBV 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.63 0.79 0.72 0.68 0.96 1.17 0.71 0.69 0.72 1.00 1.28 1.52 0.52 0.54 0.61 0.84 1.10 1.58 1.16 1.03 1.41 1.43 2.15 4.84 NA NA 1.59 1.39 2.46 3.01 1.20 1.34 1.82 2.13 2.11 2.20 0.84 0.88 1.14 1.25 1.68 2.39 10 NBV 2017 2018 2017 2018 15 13 Wind 12%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002010-122011-082012-042012-122013-082014-042014-122015-082016-042016-122017-082018-042018-122019-082020-042020-122021-082022-042022-120.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 16 12 2024 NBV 2024 NBV 5%10%-5%0%8%25%25%25%25%25%NBV 31.3%37.5%18.8%25.0%35.0%17 13 2024 NBV 2024 NBV NBV 2.2%-5.4%-2.7%-13.5%-8.8%NBV 88.8%82.1%80.7%80.6%56.4%NBV 31.3%37.5%18.8%25.0%35.0%NBV 11.2%17.9%19.3%19.4%43.6%NBV 5.5%2.3%1.4%-6.0%10.3%18 19 14 23 Q1-Q3 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q1-Q3 95.7%96.4%97.9%-0.9pt 0.1pt 1.7pt 98.7%98.0%99.3%2.0pt 0.9pt 1.6pt 98.4%97.9%98.7%-1.2pt 0.6pt 1.0pt%NA 97.6%NANA 2.4pt NA NA 98.2%NANA-0.6pt NA2023 0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%22Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q3 14 2023 20 16 23 COR Wind-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%2021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-10 15 2023 70.0%70.8%69.8%69.7%60.0%62.0%64.0%66.0%68.0%70.0%72.0%2022H1 2023H1 2022H1 2023H1 21 23Q3 22 COR 15 23Q3 22Q3 23Q3/()/()14.34 5 80.62 3 12.64 2023 11 24.45 6 10.87 7 6.00 12 8.29 7 4.55 5.42 8 4.48 51.56 120.1022Q3 23Q3()()6,395 18,737 4,477 17,655 3,523 7,907 2,189 7,590 1,861 5,150 18,445 57,039 16 23Q3 22 22 23 17 23Q1-Q3 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%22Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q3 18 23Q1-Q3 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%22Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q322Q1-Q323Q1-Q3 23 19 22 23=/2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q1-Q3 2023 E 95.7%96.4%97.9%98.5%-0.9pt 0.1pt 1.7pt 0.9pt98.7%98.0%99.3%99.6%2.0pt 0.9pt 1.6pt 1.7pt98.4%97.9%98.7%98.5%-1.2pt 0.6pt 1.0pt 1.2pt 17 30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 24 20 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%2.82.933.13.23.33.4 21 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.00100200300400500600700800900 GDP 25 18 22 37.0%36.4%36.5%31.6%32.1%32.2%32.8%33.0%23.7%24.0%24.9%22.2%23.7%23.8%24.3%24.5%13.6%12.3%12.0%10.8%11.4%11.6%11.8%11.9%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 1 2 3 4 2023 9 1 2 25%25%3 4 26 19 24 COR 24 8,548 4,867 2,036 284,930 211,619 101,824 6%6%6%97.0%97.7%98.0%27 23 24 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%01002003004005006007008002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 28 25 26 17.1%14.4%17.2%13.0%15.8%12.7%8.6%7.2%7.7%6.5%7.2%6.1%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 2022 2023H1 41.7%22.0%22.3%20.6%22.7%4.1%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 2022 2023H1 29 20 24 COR 24 COR 312-1,726 723 202,734 86,310 72,283 10%5%15%99.8%102.0%99.0%30 21 24 24 8,860 3,141 2,759 487,664 297,929 174,107 7%5%9%98.2%98.9%98.4%31 32 23 27 23Q1-Q3 2023 23Q1-Q3 23Q1-Q3 28 23Q1-Q3-1.2%-0.8%-1.4%-1.6%-1.4%-1.2%-1.0%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 33 23 29 2023Q1-Q3 23 23 22 23 5%22 30 2023Q1-Q3 0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q30.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 34-4-202468102022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-10:%Wind 31 23Q3 32 23Q3 Wind 8.6%8.8%9.0%9.2%9.4%9.6%9.8%10.0%10.2%10.4%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000:35 36 33 300 FVTPL 23 2022 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q1-Q3-17.6%48.9%-1.2%-5.6%-8.3%27.4%-8.7%-24.4%-36.8%18.0%-36.3%-47.8%-34.3%114.8%8.6%-15.5%12.8%230.0%8.7%-15.5%19.2%22.0%5.4%-26.2%22 23-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%300 Wind 37 2024 23 2024 2023 E 2024 E 3.8%16.8%-17.2%14.7%-38.6%34.1%-37.1%38.9%-5.5%10.0%-11.1%13.0%38 39 24 2012 25 Wind 2023 11 21 3/4 1/4/A 2.12 0.55 1.03 0.93 1.18 0.78 0.65 0.72 0.67 5.1%A 3.08 0.46 1.04 1.00 1.16 0.79 0.49 0.51 0.51 0.5%A 1.71 0.33 0.91 0.89 1.12 0.65 0.46 0.47 0.42 4.6%A 2.12 0.29 0.91 0.85 1.15 0.59 0.41 0.44 0.38 7.3%5.0%PEV 4.5%PEV 4.0%PEV 0.51 0.54 0.57 0.67 0.73 0.80 0.42 0.45 0.49 0.38 0.41 0.45 40 10 10-2.48%1.35%2.67%Wind Wind 2023 11 21 2013-2022 10-0.50%1.98%-2.48%1.67%1.66%0.01%2.55%1.20%1.35%0.67%1.52%-0.85%26 10 34 P/EV 0.000.501.001.502.002.50 41 24 24 24 35 27 2022 50bps EV 9.04%4.56%7.43%8.66%50bps EV-9.00%-4.98%-7.47%-8.70%1584221963738668462474820200040006000800010000120002022H1 2023H1 2022H1 2023H1 FYC FYC 42 24 ROE Wind 37 24 ROE 36 24-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%01002003002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 39 38 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202231.8%32.8%32.7%33.1%31.0%32.0%33.0%34.0%2020 2021 2022 2023.1-9 43 24 EVPS P/EV2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E601318.SH 76.34 77.89 84.26 92.01 100.78 0.56 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 601336.SH 82.96 81.92 86.53 85.03 72.66 0.39 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.45 601601.SH 51.80 54.01 58.63 64.22 70.01 0.48 0.46 0.42 0.38 0.35 601628.SH 42.56 43.54 47.46 52.19 57.56 0.74 0.73 0.67 0.61 0.55 1339.HK H 2.89 2.76 3.00 3.28 3.60 0.82 0.86 0.79 0.72 0.66 0966.HK H 60.54 55.11 59.93 65.72 72.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 1299.HK H 6.03 5.85 6.06 6.30 6.95 1.54 1.59 1.54 1.48 1.34 2378.HK H 17.24 15.34 16.90 18.61 20.32 0.67 0.75 0.68 0.62 0.57 BVPS P/B 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E2328.HK H 9.12 9.44 10.05 10.58 11.12 0.92 0.89 0.83 0.79 0.75 Wind 2023 11 21 44 45 46 47