20231226_湘财证券_中药行业2024年度策略：创新与消费以“中药+”视角挖掘结构性机会_34页.pdf

创 新 与消 费，以“中药+”视角挖 掘 结构 性 机会 相关研究：1.中药行 业2023 年度策 略：不变 的价值 与变动 的机会 20230105 2.中药行 业2023 年中期 策略：老 中 药，新 看 20230626 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-1 8 2-7-2-13 300 分析师：许雯 证 书 编 号：S0500517110001 Tel：(8621)50293534 Email：地址：上海市浦 东新区 银城路88 号中 国人寿 金融中 心10 楼“+”2015 2019+1+/“+”OTC OTC+“+”1+2+3+-20-15-10-5051022/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 300_ _证 券研 究报告 2023 年 12 月26 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 中 药行 业 2024 年度 策略 报告 “+”1 1 2 2023 3+“+”+1 OTC 2 3 1 2 3 WUDWvMrMtQoPoQsRrMtMnM9PdN9PtRmMsQsRfQqRmOjMmOpQ6MmMuMuOsOsRMYoPsM 1 正文目录 1+.4 1.1.4 1.2.6 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.15 3.20 3.1.20 3.2.24 3.3.26 4.29 5.31 2 图表目录 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.8 8 2017.10 9 2021.10 10 2021-2023.10 11.11 12+.11 13.13 14.13 15 2021.13 16.13 17 2022 TOP20.14 18 2023Q1-3 TOP20.14 19 2022.14 20 2023Q1-3.14 21.15 22 2023.18 23.18 24+.20 25 2022 TOP5.21 26 2023H1.21 27 2023H1 TOP20.23 28.25 29.25 30.26 31.26 32+.27 33 2023 18-35.28 34.28 35+.29 36 PE.29 37 PB.29 38 PE.30 39 PB.30 3 40.31 1 2023Q1-Q3.5 2 2023Q1-3.5 3 2023Q3.5 4 2021.9 5.12 6 2023 TOP10.14 7 2023H1 TOP20.16 8 2023.16 9 2023.17 10+.19 11 2023H1 TOP20.22 12 2023H1 TOP20.22 13 2023H1 TOP20.23 4 1+1.1 2023Q1-3 ST B 2023Q1-3 18492.75 1.45%1661.72 19.52%32.92%2.21pct 9.47%2.5pct 2023Q3 5947.76 3.26%493.82 18.08%32.54%1.13pct 8.78%1.66pct Q3 Q3 1 2 Wind Wind 3 4 Wind Wind(10)010203040050001000015000200002500015-03 16-03 17-03 18-03 19-03 20-03 21-03 22-03 23-03%-40-200204060800500100015002000250015-03 16-03 17-03 18-03 19-03 20-03 21-03 22-03 23-03%2527293133353767891011121315-03 16-03 17-03 18-03 19-03 20-03 21-03 22-03 23-03%1416182022242615-03 16-03 17-03 18-03 19-03 20-03 21-03 22-03 23-03%5 1 2023Q1-Q3 2022 10.01%3.26%2.93%34.72%9.87%18.65%3.73%2023Q1 2.27%-25.43%-26.01%33.21%9.85%18.45%3.36%2023Q2 5.51%-14.09%-13.17%33.00%9.76%17.99%3.75%2023Q3-3.26%-18.64%-18.08%32.54%8.78%18.60%3.93%2023H1 3.85%-20.22%-20.12%33.11%9.80%18.22%3.55%2023Q1-3 1.45%-19.75%-19.52%32.92%9.47%18.35%3.67%Wind 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3 2023Q3 Q3 2 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3(pct)(pct)(pct)(pct)1.45%-19.75%-19.52%18.86%0.96 3.67%0.21 32.92%-3.83 9.47%-2.50 1.61%-1.29%-1.36%27.55%-0.29 7.20%0.64 46.71%-0.15 10.48%-0.31 6.72%-10.51%-7.72%31.33%6.88 7.99%0.16 54.15%-4.39 19.86%-3.82-3.56%-17.15%-16.88%16.73%1.16 4.21%0.31 40.90%-20.91 17.12%-2.81-28.51%-56.37%-55.44%20.92%6.58 9.28%2.79 50.38%-5.60 19.19%-12.25 9.16%-2.58%-1.28%9.00%-0.22 0.28%0.00 12.78%-0.29 2.59%-0.31 9.57%33.03%31.52%28.21%-0.44 2.40%-0.12 44.85%0.48 12.63%2.23 Wind 3 2023Q3 2023Q3(pct)(pct)(pct)(pct)-3.26%-18.64%-18.08%20.21%2.02 3.93%0.62 32.54%-5.93 8.78%-1.66-4.76%-3.83%-3.61%27.75%-0.46 7.90%0.89 46.10%-0.46 9.46%0.09 6 16.03%5.01%4.30%44.54%19.43 7.58%-0.78 52.81%-5.18 19.29%-2.03-6.87%-18.90%-19.92%17.55%2.25 4.24%0.06 41.92%-58.08 17.38%-2.58-20.86%-51.62%-49.03%23.18%7.58 9.71%1.80 50.56%-1.26 17.13%-10.89-0.88%-11.25%-8.27%8.95%-0.21 0.28%0.98 12.24%-0.31 2.24%-0.26 0.42%9.87%8.28%28.67%-1.32 2.74%0.08 43.65%-0.78 10.85%0.93 Wind 2024 1.2“+”2015 2019 2019 2021 28 2022 2023 2023-2025 7 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023-2025 DRG/DIP 6/+GAP 8“+”“+”7/+9 2 2.1 1 2017 2023.12.22 34 2021 26 76.47%2021 39.46%15.38%11.54%4 2021 1 3.2 2021 2 3.2 3 3.2 4 6 5 6 6 1.1 7 1.1 8 1.1 9 1.1 10 1.1 11 1.1 12 1.1 13/1.2 2022 14 1.2 15 3.2 16 3.1 17 6.1 18 1.1 19 1.2 20 3.1 2023 21 1.1 22 1.1 23 1.1 24 1.2 25 1.1 26 2.2 CDE Insight 2023.12.22 10 8 2017 9 2021 CDE Insight 2023.12.22 CDE Insight 2023.12.22+2022 2023-2023 3 2 10 2021-2023 2021 2022 2023/CDE Insight 2023.12.22 024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 024681012 11+1 2023 1 71.43%2023.12.22 11 CDE Insight 2023.12.22 1-2-3-12“+”1 2019 3 2020 6 2021 7 2022 10 2023 12 22 17 2022 12 5 1 6.1 2 6 3 1.1 4 1.1 5 1.1 6 3.1 7 3.1-8 3.1 9 3.1 10 3.1 11 3.1 12 3.1 13 2.1 14 1.1 15 2.1 16 3.1 17 3.1 18 1.1 19 3.1 20 A 1.2-21 A 1.2 CDE 2023.12.22 1-2-3-21 7 2 10 13 13 14 CDE 2023.12.22 CDE 2023.12.22 2021 3 2 1 3 2 1 15 2021 16 CDE Insight 2023.12.22 CDE 2023.12.22 2022 2023Q1-3 TOP20 2022 30 22 2023Q1-3 16 11 2023 051015202019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%1 2 3 01234 2021 01234/14 17 2022 TOP20 18 2023Q1-3 TOP20 Wind Wind 19 2022 20 2023Q1-3 Wind Wind 6 2023 TOP10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0%5%10%15%20%25%0%5%10%15%20%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2022-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2023Q1-3 15 2.2 2023 126 21 17 15 15 59 1 3088 1698 1390 892 2000 575 2023 1390 21 2023 25 23 80%2 2023H1 TOP20 20 18 9 575823987123813211374 1381139091310271140129713221486158616980200400600800100012001400160018002000 2004 2009 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 16 7 2023H1 TOP20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-2023 9 7 2022 78%8 2023 2022 2021 2022 2022 2022 2019 2022 2022 2022 17 2023 188 29 20 69%2 9 2023 2022 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 43 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 18 22 2023“+”2018 2018 268 2009 166 4 23“+”0510152025 2023 10220326820531741730752068501002003004005006007008002009 2012 2018 19 10“+”+/()()()C/(/)20/24“+”3“+”3.1 OTC 2022 1400 16.8%30%13.76%10.5%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 25 2022 TOP5 2023 2023H1 621 14.19%13 10%26 2023H1 OTC 2023H1 TOP20 4 10 13 5 TOP20 12 60%5 7 TOP20 OTC 18 9 30.09%13.76%10.50%8.42%8.41%28.82%,27.13%,15.60%,12.73%,9.10%,8.81%,7.16%,5.39%,4.66%,3.73%,2.35%,1.43%,1.07%,0.83%22 11 2023H1 TOP20 OTC 1 28+OTC 2 23+3 13+4 12+5 9+6 8+7 8+8 7+9 6+10 6+11 6+12 5+13 5+14 4+15 4+16 4+17 4+18 4+19 3+20 3+OTC TOP20 4 2 12 2023H1 TOP20 1 13+2 11+3 10+4 9+5 9+6 8+7 8+8 7+9 6+10 6+11 6+12 5+13 5+14 5+15 4+23 16 4+17 4+18 4+19 3+20 3+27 2023H1 TOP20 OTC 2023H1 TOP20 26 2 TOP20 11 55%OTC 18 90%13 2023H1 TOP20 RX/OTC/1 RX 2 3 4 5 OTC 6 7 8 RX 9 OTC 10 OTC 11 12 OTC 0123 TOP20 24 13 14 OTC 15 OTC 16 17 OTC 18 19 20 OTC 3.2“+”2 6 2022 25 28-30 20 10 7 10 5 5“”“+”29 26 3.3“+”2018 7.3 2022 10.2 8.7%2023 10.9 2030 16 2018 2 2022 4.5 18%2023 5.3 2025 7.4 30 31 2035“+”2023 4 27 32“+”+“+”2013 2015 14 2020 6 2023 18-35+28 33 2023 18-35“+”2022 60 19.8%+34 Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%/2023 18-35 0%5%10%15%20%25%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 60 29 35“+”/+4“+”2023 2023.12.22 PE(TTM)25.47 PB(LF)2.51 PE 23.7%PB 9.6%36 PE 37 PB Wind Wind 28.9 26.3 34.6 26.6 17.9 29.2 31.6 050100150200250300 PE(ttm)2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.6 2.8 3.6 024681012 PB(lf)30 38 PE 39 PB Wind Wind 1 1 2 2023 3+“+”+1 OTC 2 3 010203040506011/01/07 13/09/07 16/05/07 19/01/07 21/09/07 PE(ttm)01234567811/01/07 13/09/07 16/05/07 19/01/07 21/09/07 PB(lf)31 40“+”+/+OTC 5 1 2 3 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明