20231225_海通证券_有色金属行业：锂价格或已步入底部区域上游减产信号有望陆续浮现_28页.pdf

SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 2023 12 25 2 Wind ACEA 2023 11/141.2 7%102.6 7%34.5%44.9GWh 15%SMM 2023 11 4.3 7%10/2023 12 21 Wind 11.8/28%2407 9.76/26%Wind 5%Core Core Lithium XVBYuNtOnOmNpRtQrMpQqRbR9R9PtRmMsQpMiNoPnPlOtRqObRmMvNMYnRsRxNoNqM3 Wind SMM ACEA 11 15%2023-12-21 11.80/-28%2023-11 11.40-10%2407 9.76/-26%5.59 0%Wind 4408-5%2023-11 44.90 GWh 15%1340/-18%13.00 GWh 13%2023-11 17.76/-10%16.00 GWh 15%26.80/-12%2023-11/141.2 7%2.09/-6%102.6 7%2023-12-21 6.37 0%34.5%-1.pct 2023-11 4.31 7%27.4 11%2.10-4%25.5%1.7pct 1.66 59%11.25 0%1.46 46%9.2%-0.2pct 1.2.3.4.5.4 5 Wind 11.8/28%/12 21/11.80-28%/11.00-20%/1.56-13%/7.60-13%/9.03-32%/4.55-20%2407/9.76-26%NCM811/16.60-14%/1340-18%/18.00-15%/101-14%/3.85-27%0246802040602021/12 2022/06 2022/12 2023/06 2023/12/910111213142401 2402 2403 2404 2405 2406 2407 2408 2409 2410 2411 24122023-11-21 2023-12-216 Wind 11 14.8 17.8/02040602021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 02040602021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 024682021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 024682021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 7 Wind 12 21 1340/-18%/10003000500070002021/12 2022/06 2022/12 2023/06 2023/12/020406001002003004002021/12 2022/06 2022/12 2023/06 2023/12 1020304050051015202021/12 2022/06 2022/12 2023/06 2023/12 NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 04812161020304050602021/12 2022/06 2022/12 2023/06 2023/12 8 Wind 5.1%23 Wind 12 21-240%-200%-160%-120%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%160%200%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2023/01 2023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 2023/12Wind CS SW Albemarle 9 Wind Albemarle 15.7%12 21 Wind 12 21-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Livent Albemarle SQM Allkem Pilbara MinRes IGO 1.2.3.4.5.10 11 SMM 11+2.8%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%024682021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02468102023/6/8 2023/7/6 2023/8/3 2023/8/31 2023/9/28 2023/10/26 2023/11/23 2023/12/21 12 SMM 11-10%-40%-20%0%20%40%04812162021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11-20%-10%0%10%20%30%012345672021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 13 Wind 11 44.9GWh+15%-60%-30%0%30%60%010203040502021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 GWh 100%150%200%250%0204060801002021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 GWh/0%20%40%60%80%100%2021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11-100%0%100%200%300%05101520252022/07 2022/11 2023/03 2023/07 2023/11 GWh 14 11 16.0GWh 4.9GWh GWh GWh 0246810121416182023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 0204060801002023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 15 Wind 11 102.6 7%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002503002021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11BEV PHEV 0204060801001201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 20230204060801001201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 202316 11 26.3 31.3%2023 11 2023 11 TOP10 051015202530 31.3%7.8%7.6%6.5%5.3%4.9%4.9%3.4%2.4%2.4%23.5%17 ACEA BEV PHEV 11 27.4 25.5%15%20%25%30%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2022 20230102030401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2022 202318 BEV PHEV FCEV 11 11.2 9.2%2%4%6%8%10%12%040801201602021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 024681012141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 1.2.3.4.5.19 20 Wind SMM 11 1.7 2.48/0100020003000400050006000010203040502021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11/-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%051015202021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 024681001232021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11/02468101200.511.522021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11/21 11 1.99-17%/0%20%40%60%80%01232018/05 2018/11 2019/05 2019/11 2020/05 2020/11 2021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 012345672018/05 2018/11 2019/05 2019/11 2020/05 2020/11 2021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11 22 Wind 11 40%02468010002000300040005000600070002021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11,/,/,02468020004000600080001000012000140002021/05 2021/11 2022/05 2022/11 2023/05 2023/11,/,02468010002000300040005000600070002020/04 2020/10 2021/04 2021/10 2022/04 2022/10 2023/04 2023/10,/1.2.3.4.5.23 24 Premier Core Lithium Core Lithium core Core Lithium 2023-12-22 BP33 2023-12-18+2023 12 17 2023-12-17 5 43.18%48.06%1+6109.5 1.62%2023-11-30 Sonora Premier 2023-12-11 Zulu 2024 2 1.2.3.4.5.25 26 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 27 021-23219383 Email 021-23219383 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%28