20231226_湘财证券_证券行业2024年度策略：政策引导格局优化_28页.pdf
政 策 引导，格局 优化 相关研究：1.2023.11.13 2.2023.12.11 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-2 3 14-8-7 1 300 分析师：张智珑 证 书 编 号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621)50295363 Email：地址：上海市浦东新区 银城 路88号中国人寿 金融中 心10楼 7 2024 ROE 1995-2010 2012 10 ROE ROE ROA ROA ROA ROE 1 2023H1 11 3 2023 5.4%2024 2023 2024-18.3%IPO CR5 58%2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2022/12/23 2023/3/23 2023/6/23 2023/9/23 2023/12/23 300)证 券研 究报告 2023 年 12 月 26 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 证 券行 业 2024 年度 策略 +1.4%-22%70%2024 ROE YWBYyRnQpMmNqOpMqNtMmN6MdN9PtRoOsQoNiNqRoMiNoMqP7NoOxPuOsOsRNZmMtM 正文目录 1 2023.1 1.1.1 1.2.3 2 2024.6 2.1.6 2.2.12 3.23 4.23 图表目录 1 2023.1 2 12 22.2 3 PB 12 22.2 4 PB 12 22.2 5.4 6 ROE.5 7.5 8.5 9 2023Q3 ROE.6 10%.10 11.12 12.12 13 2023H1.13 14 12 22.13 15 2023H1.17 16.17 17 IPO TOP10%.18 18 IPO 12 22.18 19.19 20 23Q3.19 21.20 22.21 23.21 24.21 25 23Q1-Q3.22 26.22 27.22 1 2023Q1-Q3.3 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.11 6.14 7.15 8.15 9.20 1 1 2023 1.1 2023 300 1-4 5 7 24 IPO 8 10 1.8%12 22 300 16 1+9.8%4+2.2%7+15.7%8-5.2%PB 1.16x 2%1 2023 Wind-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%23-01 23-02 23-03 23-04 23-05 23-06 23-07 23-08 23-09 23-10 23-11 23-12)300 A 2 2 12 22 Wind 3 PB 12 22 Wind 44 34 12 22 5+50.9%+43.2%+30.7%+25.1%+15.1%5-3.3%-3.9%-5.1%-6.8%-13.8%PB 10%4 PB 12 22 Wind-4-2024681012-10-50510152023-01 23-02 23-03 23-04 23-05 23-06 23-07 23-08 23-09 23-10 23-11 23-12%300%0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.513/12 14/09 15/06 16/03 16/12 17/09 18/06 19/03 19/12 20/09 21/06 22/03 22/12 23/09(+1)(-1)50.9 3.4 56.8 3.7 1.6 5.7 43.2 2.6 65.8 3.3 1.1 1.5 30.7 1.4 33.6 3.1 1.2 27.1 25.1 1.5 28.9 2.7 1.2 2.5 15.1 0.9 10.4 2.7 0.9 3.6 12.2 0.9 2.7 2.7 1.6 5.8 11.7 0.8 6.1 2.6 1.1 2.8 11.0 1.1 10.0 2.2 0.9 3.2 9.2 1.1 8.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 9.1 0.7 5.9 1.5 1.7 2.8 8.5 0.9 3.2 1.5 4.0 52.7 8.3 0.9 4.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 7.8 1.0 7.9-0.8 2.5 12.5 7.0 1.6 11.6-1.1 1.0 0.0 6.8 1.3 4.2-1.4 2.1 4.8 5.7 1.2 7.8-2.6 1.7 0.1 5.3 5.8 25.1-2.9 2.1 2.3 5.2 1.1 20.0-3.3 1.1 0.0 4.6 1.0 2.9-3.9 1.7 16.2 4.2 1.0 5.3-5.1 1.0 1.3 4.1 1.0 5.8-6.8 1.0 0.1 4.0 1.2 2.5-13.8 3.1 0.0 3 1.2 2023 43 3819+1.9%1100+6.5%2023Q3 1127-9.7%-16%281-10%-28%2023-12.5%-18%-21.9%70%1 2023Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 374,924 381,917+1.9%+100.0%87,836 76,876-12.5%-156.7%43,159 35,243-18.3%-113.2%34,266 34,731+1.4%+6.7%43,866 34,250-21.9%-137.5%60,536 102,805+69.8%+604.4%103,298 109,973+6.5%-Wind=-+2 2022Q3 2023Q3 2023Q2 124,851 112,737-9.7%134,289-16.0%29,395 24,253-17.5%27,424-11.6%17,143 11,483-33.0%13,241-13.3%11,882 11,702-1.5%11,909-1.7%15,862 10,545-33.5%12,730-17.2%14,132 20,720+46.6%32,577-36.4%31,181 28,051-10.0%38,952-28.0%Wind=-+4 2023 24.1%-5pct 11%-3.3pct 10.9%-0.5pct 10.7%-3.8pct 32.2%+12.1pct 5 Wind=-ROE 2023Q1-Q3 ROE 6.05%2023H1 0.78pct 2022Q1-Q3 6.01%0.04pct 2022 5.49%0.56pct 2023 2023Q3 3.93 0.07 2022 3.9 0.03 2023Q3-2.3%+5.5%-14.2%-9.5%1.6%Q2+14.8%22Q3 47%23Q3 51%25.9%26.6%28.7%29.1%24.1%13.2%12.0%14.7%14.3%11.0%8.8%9.6%11.7%11.4%10.9%12.1%11.6%14.6%14.6%10.7%33.0%31.8%19.6%20.1%32.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 2022Q1-3 2023Q1-3 5 6 ROE Wind 7 Wind 22 22Q3 8 Wind 2023Q1-Q3 ROE ROE TOP5 TOP10 ROE 7.67%6.8%6.05%ROE ROE 5 10 4.45 4.28 3.93 2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 ROE ROE2.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.12017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023Q3 22Q1QoQ22H1QoQ22Q3QoQ22Q4QoQ23Q1QoQ23H1QoQ23Q3QoQ23Q3YoY 3.3%2.6%-1.6%2.3%4.2%1.3%-2.3%5.5%3.1%10.5%-13.2%8.2%-2.5%3.8%-14.2%-6.0%-3.5%-4.8%13.8%-3.6%-3.0%9.8%12.3%15.3%-7.6%-3.9%-4.2%0.7%4.8%-1.7%0.6%4.4%4.2%-3.6%-7.0%13.7%-8.9%-0.9%-9.5%-7.1%2.9%3.3%0.7%2.8%9.0%0.9%1.6%14.8%1.0%2.7%0.9%-0.5%9.3%1.0%2.4%12.4%0.8%7.0%6.9%8.4%2.3%2.7%-1.2%12.5%10.9%4.7%-0.2%14.7%5.7%-0.8%-2.2%17.7%3.5%12.5%-1.7%-2.0%48.3%13.5%12.2%85.2%24.6%0.8%45.1%-27.5%-20.1%35.2%4.5%-18.1%3.5%2.9%-3.0%2.3%4.7%1.3%-3.2%5.1%10.7%-0.6%-1.1%1.8%18.1%-6.5%0.0%12.3%4.0%8.1%-11.1%5.9%-1.5%3.9%-8.9%-1.2%2.9%1.4%3.4%2.1%2.3%1.1%1.1%6.8%6 9 2023Q3 ROE Wind 22Q3 2 2024 2.1 2024 2023 7 8 10 11 3 YoY%YoY YoY%YoY 9.35 1.82 3.06-1.74 5.59 0.40 4.51 0.98 8.86 1.42 2.81 0.05 5.21 1.23 2.60 0.27 8.49-1.16 4.29 0.04 5.07-0.96 3.08-0.55 8.00-1.93 4.28 0.29 4.94 0.81 3.53-0.58 7.89-0.61 4.69-0.25 4.88 1.11 3.38 0.09 7.58 0.79 4.24-0.32 4.53 0.21 2.63 0.19 7.27-0.13 4.31 0.05 4.27 1.83 2.99-0.02 7.11-0.34 4.73 0.02 4.22 2.18 3.64 0.11 6.73 0.50 4.82 0.40 4.01-1.02 3.85 0.42 6.52 2.06 2.92-0.10 3.88-5.44 1.54-1.91 6.46 2.99 3.51-0.61 3.58 4.46 1.13-0.04 6.45 0.07 2.71 0.02 3.51-1.44 3.76-0.06 6.26-0.22 3.02 0.27 3.03 1.83 2.99 0.22 6.08-0.13 3.97 0.06 2.98-0.16 2.99 0.37 6.07-2.91 5.22-0.65 2.80 0.64 2.67-0.80 6.02-0.25 3.26 0.10 2.58-0.33 3.61-0.67 6.01 1.61 3.18 0.76 2.41 2.14 3.75 0.29 5.99 1.01 3.02 0.22 2.38-0.37 3.08 0.09 5.95 0.02 5.26-0.05 2.20 0.06 2.91 0.00 5.87-0.27 3.99 0.65 2.00 1.01 2.97 0.31 5.78 2.55 3.22 0.62 1.25 1.10 1.60-0.33 5.68 0.94 3.25 0.00 7 3 8 18 11 3 10 20 12 15 8 27 30%8 27 IPO 8 18 0.00487%0.00341%30%50%0.025%0.0125%8 28 7 9 1 8 27 100%80%10 14 50%80%100%11 3 8 2.1.1 1995-2010 1995-2001 1993 1995 1995-2000 80 2000 4 1993.12 1995.5 1996.7 63 1998.12 2001.10 2004-2007 2004 2004 8 2008-2010 2008 9 5 2012 2012 2014 2015 2022 2017 2020 2023 2023 10 2.1.2 ROE ROE ROA ROA ROA ROE 1 2023H1 11 3 2020 1 10 1 REITs 2 3 10%Wind 2022 2023H1 2022 2023H1 2022 2023H1 2022 2023H1 262.43 259.59 12.42 10.82 354.93 265.26 129.89 130.35 257.3 265.18 10.89 10.92 212.12 169.26 136.74 128.77 182.42 183.46 11.24 11.7 239.71 247.67 154.27 134.44 186.58 203.9 13.04 12.14 213.79 265.09 147.26 161.58 264.95 264.15 13.39 13.26 210.95 155.46 151.73 135.13 253.08 230.12 14.38 13.45 218.5 219.78 139.09 134.37 222.66 221.42 14.91 13.82 235 249.7 141.47 131.78 240.12 246.5 14.1 14.24 166.57 196.93 129.33 131.64 160.32 147.73 13.8 14.33 134.65 147.45 176.65 146.04 227.07 209.35 15.42 14.49 245.78 225.96 140.03 131.86 235.45 244.02 15.67 15.06 169.05 201.57 179.03 158.86 220.76 217.59 14.85 15.27 309.31 237.46 162.95 149.44 192.35 167.54 20.33 15.51 160.06 183.15 143.66 126.69 413.12 379.23 15.97 15.75 236.62 231.06 171.89 165.52 186.98 204.01 18.38 15.96 258.45 524.5 146.05 146.34 220.96 210.24 18.79 16.2 192.85 170.82 158.54 154.73 203.96 193.15 17.79 16.31 130.53 134.61 129.64 126.85 247.47 224.21 17.71 16.38 647.18 251.48 139.48 146.09 123.8 120.13 16.99 16.46 615.81 392.95 125.8 125.82 186.44 202.11 17.62 16.6 277.32 331.57 130.09 130.51 288.31 273.72 18.94 17.66 139.43 138 139.1 133.99 236.77 199.41 19.56 18.77 154.43 154.74 144.43 150.4 252.02 270.66 20.64 19.03 312.72 335.24 154.31 148.26 230.11 215.43 21.61 20.1 457.44 347.18 169.27 161.77 293.85 281.79 21.58 20.11 180.3 188.2 153.94 150.53 236.37 183.14 27.9 21.09 456.1 325.97 160.89 141.23 195.59 204.09 23.32 21.25 504.18 299.93 178.18 177.01 241.25 235.37 21.12 21.6 293.75 352.58 162.85 161.68 256.84 245.11 23.25 22.15 226.03 235.63 196.4 186.86 342.13 309.42 22.55 22.15 216.78 215.18 157.99 145.24 202.91 207.29 22.68 22.68 274.87 274.16 187.32 187.16 279.17 282.2 30.75 23.61 211.14 225.29 169.94 149.59 262.45 236.92 26.2 24.51 1068.06 650.3 187.57 165.94 317.37 327.53 24.14 25.45 239.35 230.07 183.18 174.03 273.68 270.13 25.32 25.53 264.32 285.93 174.76 159.73 180.35 213.99 23.58 27.67 143.41 180.1 131 151.97 325.73 342.12 28.14 28.32 693.87 204.61 180.87 167.71 492.4 387.45 33.68 29.03 544.89 322.76 230.4 213.9 328.14 387.83 30.72 29.41 339.85 262.32 144.51 147.39 360.17 316.41 31.18 32.48 721.81 506.71 184.89 171.4 361.98 270.18 32.79 33.12 422.55 315.59 164.83 151.38 309.76 348.83 46.38 40.82 266.29 294.93 276.22 292.73 470.1 422.36 45.43 45.04 1678.14 1703.84 269.95 279.09 412.78 433.83 67.87 65.69 407.4 628.48 220.49 238.34 11 ROE/A AA 0.5 0.4 A 0.7 0.6 A AA A AA 0.7 A 0.9 1 70%90%43%11%ROE 0.7 500 500 5/A 90%/A AA 0.7 A 0.9/30 500/500 30%/A 90%12 2.2 2.2.1 2023Q1-Q3-12.5%2023 6.6%23Q3 14%10-11 0.8%12 2023 5.4%2024 2023 2023H1 0.021%0.24BP 2024 11 Wind 12 Wind 2023Q1-Q3 30%Q2 Q3 38%43%Q1 1%+36%27%Q3 60%43 2023H1 8%12 1pct 11%2022 0.1pct 10-11 18%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-110.02%0.03%0.04%0.05%0.06%0.07%0.08%0.09%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 13 13 2023H1 Wind 14 12 22 Wind 2019 10 2023 6 2023 3 60 1464 524 10 YoYYoY 798-8%15%0%47-13%11%0%708 17%28%5%36 169%7%5%427-3%15%-2%33-31%4%-1%389 19%13%-2%27-6%5%0%356-12%10%0%26-1%6%1%344-26%11%4%22-18%6%0%257-24%9%-1%21-22%10%-2%215-16%7%0%16-16%5%0%210-22%9%-3%15-33%6%-3%179-8%12%1%14-45%7%-3%179-23%15%-2%14 15%3%0%146 65%9%4%14-10%3%0%138-24%7%2%14-19%8%0%125-6%5%-2%9-66%2%-4%124-15%8%-1%9 11%5%1%121-28%10%-8%7 14%6%0%115 4%7%1%7-38%3%-1%110-11%7%0%7-1%3%1%92-4%11%0%6 14%1%0%80-16%14%-2%5 164%2%1%56-29%7%-2%1 43%1%1%52 45%11%4%5,569-8%11%-1%05001,0001,5002,0002,500 14 94%2023 3 26.68 0.55%6 5%10%20%50%20%20%30%5%1 AUM 15 7 1.2%0.2%1.2%0.2%2023 1.2%0.2%2023 2023 2024 30%12 8 16 1 2 3 4 8 1 1 2 2 1 10 30%10 30%15%16 2 3 1 2 3 4/2022 22Q3 2023H1 0.023%0.021%Wind 2022 2023H1 188.74 96.75 0.076%0.074%5%2022 2023H1 0.046%0.042%39%43%12 9 2022 33%30%2022 57 2022 43 16%4.6%33%-43%1.5%-2%17 15 2023H1 Wind 2.2.2 2023Q1-Q3-18.3%8 IPO IPO-33%-17%Q3-34%-43%+11%+25%IPO CR5 58%2022 IPO 2023 CR5 CR10 49%69%2022 2.2pct 2.4pct 16 Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%010203040506070809005001,0001,5002,0002,500IPO()()IPO()()18 17 IPO TOP10%Wind 18 IPO 12 22 Wind 2.2.3 2023Q1-Q3+1.4%2023Q3 6.12-2%-23%-2.8%/-33%-2.5%/-15%+2%/+5%051015202530 2023Q1-Q3(%)2022(%)0102030405060 19 19 Wind 20 23Q3 Wind 23Q3(+)7.06-1.3%/-3.7%7 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,00017-0317-0617-0917-1218-0318-0618-0918-1219-0319-0619-0919-1220-0320-0620-0920-1221-0321-0621-0921-1222-0322-0622-0922-1223-0323-0423-0623-0723-0823-0923-10-8.5%23.6%21.3%-2.3%-23.3%0.8%0.6%-0.2%-9.7%19.5%17.4%-2.1%56.5%0.3%0.5%0.2%21.2%7.6%9.1%1.5%12.1%0.4%0.5%0.0%234.0%2.7%9.0%6.3%1.2%0.4%0.4%0.0%-21.3%6.0%4.7%-1.3%-8.1%0.4%0.4%0.0%254.8%1.2%4.2%3.0%-31.3%0.6%0.4%-0.2%-15.4%4.9%4.1%-0.8%-2.8%0.4%0.4%0.0%11.8%3.1%3.4%0.3%0.5%0.3%0.3%0.0%-9.6%3.1%2.7%-0.3%130.3%0.1%0.2%0.1%29.9%2.1%2.7%0.6%-56.6%0.5%0.2%-0.3%-21.0%2.8%2.2%-0.6%-18.2%0.3%0.2%-0.1%-6.1%2.2%2.0%-0.2%2.3%0.2%0.2%0.0%-43.3%3.6%2.0%-1.6%-31.5%0.3%0.2%-0.1%-13.0%1.8%1.6%-0.3%70.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%-49.0%2.5%1.2%-1.2%-24.5%0.3%0.2%-0.1%-26.4%1.7%1.2%-0.5%-19.9%0.2%0.1%0.0%-28.1%1.5%1.1%-0.4%19.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%51.6%0.7%1.0%0.3%40.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%-1.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%-8.5%0.1%0.1%0.0%-4.1%1.0%1.0%-0.1%-15.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%121.0%0.4%0.8%0.5%-28.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%-22.9%1.0%0.7%-0.2%CR5-59.4%61.4%2.0%20 21 Wind 3 2022 5 5 11 9 23 7 23 11 100%14.4 8.3 3.9 20%28%27%35%32.6 20.9 8.0 15%25%22%18%1.7 1.8 1.2 1%1%1%49%14.0 13.7 6.5 36%75%39%47%1.7 1.8 1.2 6%9%4%51%1.5 1.6 1.3 20%20%10%26%9.2 8.2 3.5 29%53%32%44%9.2 8.2 3.5 34%34%116%116%39%39%51%22.4 16.8 8.0 23%33%24%9%21.6 17.7 9.8 5%6%4%55%26.1 21.3 12.2 15%15%13%23%45.4 38.4 16.2 8%11%9%51%2.7 2.5 1.0 13%13%50%50%18%18%100%12.7 10.7 5.5 8%10%10%49%4.1 3.8 2.4 2%2%2%41%21.6 17.7 9.8 6%7%7%58%1.0 0.8 0.6 6%19%4%19%9.2 8.2 3.5 12%67%11%49%17.8 17.2 7.6 8%10%7%45%16.0 18.1 8.9 8%10%6%100%4.6 4.6 2.1 20%30%18%40%1.6 1.9 1.1 4%5%3%100%2.7 0.9 0.4 3%6%11%45%2.0 1.7 0.7 3%5%4%67%1.3 1.3 0.5 1%3%1%28%25.6 20.7 10.7 8%21%8%50%10.1 5.4 4.9 7%7%4%4%5%5%100%6.1 2.3 2.0 4%2%4%51%10.1 10.3 5.2 5%5%2%60%0.7 1.2 0.6 2%12%1%60%3.1 3.3 1.9 7%27%5%62%23.1 21.6 10.7 6%6%6%6%6%6%53%49%84%43%36%42%73%43%39%28%49%28%26%23%18%18%23%16%86%14%21%14%18%16%35%20%11%15%25%6%24%8%7%6%9%8%40%6%9%21 2.2.4 2023-22%9 1.59 3.3%Q1-Q3 3%9 5.3%6.5%22 Wind 23 Wind 24 Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000 012345678901,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00020-0620-0720-0820-0920-1020-1120-1221-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-0621-0721-0821-0921-1021-1121-1222-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-1123-12%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q3 22 2.2.5 2023Q1-Q3+69.8%1-9 A 1.41%20.9%1.2%1.14%2023Q3+15%22+12%Q1-Q3 2.44%0.83pct 25 23Q1-Q3 Wind 26 Wind 5 157.8 77.4 76.8 70 69.8 5+5.2pct+4.4pct+4.2pct+3.8pct+3pct 2024 27 Wind=/-2000020004000600080001000012000140001600018000 2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0002021Q1 2021H1 2021Q3 2021 2022Q1 2022H1 2022Q3 2022 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 22Q323Q3 8.1%10.0%1.9%1.2%2.0%2.5%0.5%11.4%1.2%6.4%5.2%7.1%1.6%2.5%0.9%9.0%2.9%5.8%3.0%5.5%1.4%2.4%1.0%9.4%2.8%4.3%1.5%-0.7%1.3%2.4%1.0%17.9%0.4%4.2%3.8%2.0%-0.4%2.2%2.6%22.7%3.5%4.2%0.6%9.6%2.2%2.2%0.0%17.7%-0.3%4.1%4.4%33.2%1.4%2.2%0.8%-0.4%-0.4%3.8%4.2%0.3%2.0%2.1%0.2%24.8%6.3%3.8%-2.6%23.0%1.6%2.1%0.4%32.1%0.9%3.7%2.7%31.5%2.0%2.0%0.0%10.3%2.4%3.4%1.1%11.0%1.2%1.8%0.7%13.3%4.8%3.4%-1.5%18.9%-0.5%1.8%2.3%-8.9%2.8%3.2%0.4%19.1%0.1%1.8%1.7%3.3%3.3%3.2%-0.1%18.4%1.2%1.7%0.5%18.0%1.6%3.1%1.5%26.8%-0.8%1.5%2.3%17.8%0.0%3.0%3.0%-7.9%0.0%1.1%1.2%16.9%2.8%2.7%-0.2%6.2%0.3%1.1%0.8%-2.0%0.8%2.6%1.9%-15.6%-0.7%1.1%1.7%-4.0%2.2%2.6%0.4%10.4%-1.0%1.0%2.0%32.9%2.4%2.6%0.2%14.9%1.6%-0.4%-2.0%-35.2%2.7%2.5%-0.1%7.5%-2.1%-0.5%1.6%0.1%2.0%2.5%0.5%15.6%1.6%2.4%0.8%11.7%23 3 ROE 4 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明
报告吧