20231220_华福证券_机械行业工业机器人深度报告：成长与周期共振加速工业机器人国产替代_42页.pdf

机 械 行业 工业 机器人 深 度报 告:成 长 与周 期共 振，加速工 业 机器 人国 产替 代|2023 12 20 S0210522100001 2 2022 174 87 50%1 2 3 4 95S-05+1 2+2025 2020 2025 850 2022 30.3 54.8%2013-2022 29.41%2025 840.4 20-25 14.5%20%+50%ABB FANUC ZXFUzQqNpMqRqOmPrMrOrQ8OaO9PmOrRoMtQiNnMmOeRsQsQ8OoOuNMYoOnMMYnRxO目录3 一、工 业 机器 人 概述 1.1 工业 机器人：智能 制造的 核心环 节 1.2 产业 链：我 国是拥 有完整 工业机 器人 产业链 国家 1.3 发展 趋势：智能 化 及柔 性 化是 工 业机 器人 发 展趋 势 1.4 行业 阶段：处于日 本95S-05 时期，进 入中速 发展时 期 1.1 4 37.6%16.1%-21.2%-30.8%-25.6%1.1 5 36 53%36%11%60%SCARA 40%44.4%18.5%12.0%6.2%2.1%1.4%2022 2022 174 87 50.0%65 37.4%22 12.6%SCARA 1.2 6 36 30%+20%+15%=70%20kg 1.3 7 GGII IT 0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 1.4 95S-05 95S-05 2025 500/81970-1980 1980-2000 2000-2008 2009-1967-1970 2010-2012 2013-2017 2018-2019 2020-2000-2009 1967 unimaton 1986 1350 1980 19843 CAGR=30.8%1980;1986 10;3C+0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520182021中国 日本2800501001502002503003504001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2010 Wind 246 2020 40%95s 00 322 202142%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%010203040502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(目录9 二、工 业 机器 人 分析 模 型：“成长+周期”模型 2.1 成长：人口 结构+经济性，叠加 下游与 政策推 动，助 力工业 机器人 快速发 展 2.2 周期：处于 周期底 部，前 瞻指标 预示 未来高 景气 2.3 市场 空间 与 测算：预计2025 年销 量突 破42.2 万台，GAGR=20.3%2.1 2013 5258 3738 1520 2022 14.9%20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 20-40 10 Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000中国:城镇非 私营单 位就业 人员数:制 造 业中国:GDP:不 变 价:同比中国:人口结 构:占总人 口比例:65 岁 及 以 上0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%20-29 人 口 占 比 30-39 人口占 比40-49 人 口 占 比 50-59 人口占 比 2.1 11 Wind 8.9%2022 67352 975287 8.88%10.23%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000:(4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%2.1 12 IFR 10006703993973223213042762742492402340 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 10 11 14365171108140170.624632201002003004002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 322/2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 328 338.9 355.2 426.7 478.4 541.9 13.8 15.4 14 15.6 24.8 30.3/23.77 22.01 25.37 27.35 19.29 17.88%-7%15%8%-29%-7%44991 49275 52858 57910 63946 70340.6%10%7%10%10%10%1 1 1 1 1 1 44991 49275 52858 57910 63946 70340.6 25200 25200 25200 25200 25200 25200 12.01 9.14 9.17 8.36 4.98 3.96 2 2 2 2 2 2 89982 98550 105716 115820 127892 140681.2 25200 25200 25200 25200 25200 25200 3.67 3.00 3.15 3.02 1.88 1.55 3 3 3 3 3 3 134973 147825 158574 173730 191838 211021.8 25200 25200 25200 25200 25200 25200 2.17 1.79 1.90 1.84 1.16 0.96 2.1 Unimate 2016 2018 2022 13 MIR 20.70%14.30%12.00%8.60%13.30%6.50%5.60%5.20%3C 2016-2018-2022 33%28%11%8%2%18%3C 36.80%23.30%15.20%24.70%2.1 MIR 2022 30%20%()3C/:3C:3C,1486.40%40.80%73.50%51.80%10.60%28.40%13.60%59.20%26.50%48.20%89.40%71.60%0%20%40%60%80%100%国产 外资 MIR 2022 2017 2.1 3C 2016 2023 2005 570 20172901 2600 2013 1.8 2022 688.7 2021+93.40%25.6%2023 9 1821 15 Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0002016-03-012016-08-012017-01-012017-06-012017-11-012018-04-012018-09-012019-02-012019-07-012019-12-012020-05-012020-10-012021-03-012021-08-012022-01-012022-06-012022-11-012023-04-012023-09-01:(万）-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503003502010-01-012010-11-012011-09-012012-07-012013-05-012014-03-012015-01-012015-11-012016-09-012017-07-012018-05-012019-03-012020-01-012020-11-012021-09-012022-07-012023-05-01:(百万）-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01020304050607080902016-03-312016-07-312016-11-302017-05-312017-09-302018-03-312018-07-312018-11-302019-05-312019-09-302020-03-312020-07-312020-11-302021-05-312021-09-302022-03-312022-07-312022-11-302023-05-312023-09-30:(2.1+2025 20 16 2016.03 2016-2020 AGV 2017.11 2019.10(2019-2022)2020.10:2021.12 2025,2035 2023.01+17 2025 2020 10 100 200+2025 2025 2020 2.1+2025 20 17 2023.03 2025 10 1000 2021.12 2021.08 2021.08 2018.07(2018 2027)2027 1800 200 100 50 50 10 20%100 2017.08 10 120/300 1500 50 3 2025 10 1000 2.2 18 Wind 1 2 3 4 PMI 2023 7-50%0%50%100%150%200%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2010/2/12010/8/12011/2/12011/8/12012/2/12012/8/12013/2/12013/8/12014/2/12014/8/12015/2/12015/8/12016/2/12016/8/12017/2/12017/8/12018/2/12018/8/12019/2/12019/8/12020/2/12020/8/12021/2/12021/8/12022/2/12022/8/12023/2/12023/8/1中国:工业企 业:产成品 存货:同比 中国:工业企 业:利润总 额:累计同 比 2.2 19 Wind PMI 50 PMI 50 5%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%21%23%25%2011-01-012011-05-012011-09-012012-01-012012-05-012012-09-012013-01-012013-05-012013-09-012014-01-012014-05-012014-09-012015-01-012015-05-012015-09-012016-01-012016-05-012016-09-012017-01-012017-05-012017-09-012018-01-012018-05-012018-09-012019-01-012019-05-012019-09-012020-01-012020-05-012020-09-012021-01-012021-05-012021-09-012022-01-012022-05-012022-09-012023-01-012023-05-012023-09-0135373941434547495153552015-01-012015-04-012015-07-012015-10-012016-01-012016-04-012016-07-012016-10-012017-01-012017-04-012017-07-012017-10-012018-01-012018-04-012018-07-012018-10-012019-01-012019-04-012019-07-012019-10-012020-01-012020-04-012020-07-012020-10-012021-01-012021-04-012021-07-012021-10-012022-01-012022-04-012022-07-012022-10-012023-01-012023-04-012023-07-01-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2011-01-012011-06-012011-11-012012-04-012012-09-012013-02-012013-07-012013-12-012014-05-012014-10-012015-03-012015-08-012016-01-012016-06-012016-11-012017-04-012017-09-012018-02-012018-07-012018-12-012019-05-012019-10-012020-03-012020-08-012021-01-012021-06-012021-11-012022-04-012022-09-012023-02-012023-07-01日本:出口金 额:中国:机械:当月 同比 金属 切削机床产量:当月同 比-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0002016-03-012016-07-012016-11-012017-03-012017-07-012017-11-012018-03-012018-07-012018-11-012019-03-012019-07-012019-11-012020-03-012020-07-012020-11-012021-03-012021-07-012021-11-012022-03-012022-07-012022-11-012023-03-012023-07-01中国:产量:工 业 机 器 人:当 月值YOY 2.3 20-25 14.5%20 IFR Wind 200.1328 338.9355.2426.7478.4541.9625.5722840.401002003004005006007008009002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2025 840.4 2022 44.3+21%2022 30.3+15.96%10 10 52 143 2021 322/25 840 CAGR14.5%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05101520253035201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2.3 2020-2025 20.3%21 IFR YOY 2011 10 232012 11 1 23 0.00%2013 14 3 37 60.87%2014 36 22 57 54.05%2015 51 15 69 21.05%6.9 62.1 0.02%2016 71 20 87 26.09%6.9 80.1 0.02%2017 108 37 138 58.62%11.1 126.9 0.03%2018 140 32 154 11.59%33.2 120.8 0.03%2019 170.6 30.6 140-9.09%36.8 103.2 0.03%2020 246 75.4 156 11.43%52 104 0.07%2021 322 76 248 58.97%81.3 166.7 0.05%2022E 360 38 284.5 14.72%94.5 190 0.02%2023E 400 40 302.9 6.47%102.9 200 0.02%2024E 444 44 363.4 19.97%143.4 220 0.02%2025E 492 48 422.2 16.18%182.2 240 0.02%2025 42.2 20202025 20.3%1=+2 5-8 t t-5 30%30%t t-8 70%3 1 0.02%20 21 2023-2025 0.02%4 2025 492/20202 目录22 三、产业 链分析 与投资 建议 3.1 产业 链分析：上游 为核心，协同 发展 加速行 业发展 3.2 复盘 与展 望：复 盘 四大 家 族，推 荐运 控技 术 龙头+本体制 造模式，长期 看好零 部件突 破 3.1 23 35%20%15%15%15%70%70%15%20%35%25%13%35%15%RV 47%10%15%30%36%-3.1 24 3.1 25 50:1 0.1Nm 5Nm RV RV 3.5;1;SCARA 3 1;0.5 RV 3C 30kg RV 1000-5000/5000-8000/RV 3.1 26 MIR GGII RV.RV 1 2 3 4 36%25%8%7%6%5%4%10%哈默纳克绿的谐波来福新宝同川大族福德其他 2021-RV 53%14%5%4%4%3%3%2%12%Nab环动住友珠海飞马中大力德南通振康智同秦川其他 3.1 PLC PC-Based KEBA 16%20%27 Ofweek 16%14%12%11%7%6%6%5%3%2%18%ABB OTC PLC PC-Based PC8 0%50%100%150%200%0510152025302012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.1 42%35%11%12%28 FROFIBUS-DP 14 5 1987 1993 1996 1996 2006EtherCATBeckhoff 2003 2007 IEC 2014 CANopenIXXAT 1994 1998 1978 SGM7G-13A SV660 X6-MG130A 8.34 8.28 8.28 2.8 3 3 24bit 23bit 23bit 3.1 29 MIR 17.63%16.07%11.76%11.08%9.64%6.69%5.36%4.42%4.04%3.51%3.47%2.79%2.13%1.41%发那科上海ABB库卡安川爱普生雅马哈那智三菱川崎新时达电气埃斯顿汇川埃夫特邀博18.34%11.87%10.77%10.26%9.08%8.56%7.18%5.63%4.03%3.68%3.10%2.90%2.61%1.99%发那科安川库卡爱普生上海ABB埃斯顿汇川雅马哈川崎那智埃夫特三菱新时达电气邀博 2019 2022Q1-3 24.20%27.90%31.30%29.00%32.80%35.00%37.00%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E国产 外资 50%30%30%303.1 Ofweek 96%2%1%1%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E(200kg 2018 15 10 3.2 ABB ABB FANUC 1+1 2 31 View ABB GE ABB KUKA AG SwisslogHolding AG 323.2 1 NC CNC 2 3 5%4 266 107 Wind-10%20%30%40%50%60%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ABB-10%0%10%20%30%40%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ABB 3.2+/+33(60)-(2018)Wind 3C+/+/3C 伺服系统 ABB TRIO 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022埃夫特-U ST 工智 新时达 瑞松科技 江苏北人机器人 拓斯达 埃斯顿 汇川技术 目录34 四、投资 建议 4.1 1 2 3 1 2 ABB GE 3 35 Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)(0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)(%)20%;4.2+2002 TRIO BARRETT Cloos M.A.i.+1 2 3&8%1 3C 2 3 2021 36 Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)(0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%(%)(%)4.3 2022 SCARA SCARA 2022 5.2%SCARA 17%2022 55%37 Wind 2022 30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(目录38 五、风 险 提示 1 2 3 4 39 40 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%41 1436 MT 20 200120